Transcript Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion

Pierre Cannon
Sumon Nandy
Amy Nandy
December 18, 2009
Problem Statement, Mission
 Problem Statement:
 A clean, renewable energy source that provides baseload
power without impacting the environment, regardless of
seasonal weather conditions, does not exist for supplying
power to African nations.
 Mission:
 To develop a feasible architecture and business strategy for an
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion system deployed off the
African coast.
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OTEC African Deployment
2
Project Team Role
 Sponsor : Lockheed Martin
 Team Role: Research Contractor
 Sponsor Focus Areas Tasks:
 Feasibility study for possible OTEC site off African continent
 Investigation of planning activities required for OTEC
deployment
 Development of location specific requirements for area
 Business/Financial plan for profitability in 30 years
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OTEC African Deployment
3
OTEC Description
 Oceanic Thermal Energy Conversion
 OTEC utilizes the ocean’s 20ºC
natural thermal gradient between
the warm surface water and the cold
deep sea water to drive a Rankine
Cycle
 OTEC utilizes the world’s largest
solar radiation collector - the ocean.
The ocean contains enough energy
power all of the world’s electrical
needs.
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OTEC African Deployment
4
5. Heat extraction
from cold-water sink to
condense the working
fluid in the condenser.
Cycle begins
again
Return to step
2
4. Expanding vapor drive
the turbine, and electricity
is created by a generator
2. Fluid pump pressurizes and
pushes working fluid to evaporator
1. Power input to pumps
to start process
3. Heat addition from the hotwater source used to
evaporate the working fluid
within the heat exchanger
(Evaporator)
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5
OTEC Project Development Process
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OTEC African Deployment
6
Work Products
System
Description
Document
House of
Quality
Cost Model
Risk
Management
Strategy
Project
Schedule
12/18/2009
Business /
Marketing
Approach
Technology
S-Curves
CPN
Simulation
Model
System
Functionality
Sequence Model
OTEC African Deployment
System
Architecture
Views (SV-)
7
Stakeholder Needs Analysis
Prioritized Stakeholder Needs
1.
Competitive Energy Cost
2. Minimal Time to Market
3. Replaces Non-renewable sources
4. Adaptable to Future Markets
5. Scalable Capacity
Special Interest
Groups
•Environmental
•African Sustainable
Energy
Local
Community
•Citizens
•Local Gov’t
Design Team
OTEC
System
Competitors
Related Engineering Characteristics
•Lockheed Martin
•Oil Industry
1.
High Efficiency Components
•GMU SEOR Faculty
•HydroPower
2. Utilize Commercial Components •Partners /
Subcontractors
3. Subsystems powered by
Interfaces
system power output
•Ocean Environment
4. Modular design for power producing
•Electric Company
systems
•Financing Group
Engineering Characteristics Evaluated using House of Quality
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OTEC African Deployment
8
Regulations & Standards
 Platform Safety:
 Maritime Safety (DOT, USCG 46 CFR)
 Luminaries (UL 1598A)
 Electrical Installations on Shipboard (IEEE P45.1, P45.5)
 Designing & Construction of Floating Platforms (API RP 2FB)
 Underwater Cabling:
 Design & Construction (IEC 60092-350; NAVY OPNAV 11310.3B)
 Sheathing (IEC 60092-351, -359)
 Installation & Test (IEC 60092-350, -352; IEEE 45 INT 1-2)
 Workforce Safety:
 Job Hazard Analysis (OSHA 3071)
 Workplace First Aid (OSHA 3317)
 Hazardous Waste Operations (OSHA 3172)
 Occupational Health & Safety (OSHA 29-CFR 1910.1)
 Habitation on Offshore Installation (ABS Pub. 105)
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OTEC African Deployment
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Other Considerations
 Supplier Qualification
 Several key components to be sourced (Water Pump, Turbine,
Generator, Heat Exchangers & Power Cabling)
 Institution of Preferred Supplier Qualification System



Process/Product control plan to ensure quality components &
participation in the auditing of their processes
Suppliers will be empowered - push high standards of quality to 2nd
tier suppliers since their company reputation is at stake
Standards Based Procurement - ensure that even the 2nd tier vendors
push for quality - end products delivered to the OTEC system have
higher reliability
 Integrated Logistics Support
 Maintainability support for equipment
 Support team to handle any questions/issues during program
execution, with trained staff to deal with all situational needs
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Trade Study Research
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Sponsor Requirements
 Location shall be located off the African coast
 Humanitarian efforts strengthen US ties with African nations
 Sponsor has not conducted in-depth research in this area
 Africa is becoming a hot topic in Renewable Resources
 Locations shall provide:
 At least 20° C temperature difference between surface water
and 1000 m deep water
 Economic Stability
 Political stability (reduces program risk)
 Established power infrastructure to I/F with OTEC
 Little or no coastal pirating crime
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OTEC African Deployment
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Africa Continent Overview
 Over 500M people, yet 75% of
Political instability & poor
infrastructure plague the
continent
12/18/2009
landmass uninhabited
 Highest birthrate of any
continent with population
expected to reach 2B by 2050
 Fastest growing region on earth
– facing most serious problems
of food and water
 High potential for commercial
OTEC plant off western coast
OTEC African Deployment
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3
2
1
0
Possible OTEC Locations
Rank
Criteria
Weight
Location
Max ΔT @
1000 m (°C)
20%
Criteria Val
1
Lagos, Nigeria
2
Dar es Salaam,
20.5
Tanzania
3
Darkar,
Senegal
4
Maputo,
Mozambique
5
Walvis Bay,
Namibia
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22.0
18.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Min Depth for
ΔT=20° (m)
15%
Criteria
Val
700
1000
3.0
Established Power
Distribution System
(Y/N)
15%
Criteria
Val
Yes.
Yes. Tanzania
Electric Supply
2.0
Company,
(TANESCO).
1500
1.0
1100
Yes. Primary Electricidade de
1.0
Mozambique
(EDM).
19.0
1.0
13.0
14 deg C @
0.0
0.0
1500m
Yes
No.
Very
Fragmented.
Installation
Facilities Available
(Y/N)
15%
Criteria
Val
2
Yes.
2
2
No.
0
2
Yes.
Established
Captial City of
Dakar
2
No.
0
Possible Yes.
Well
established
port city.
OTEC African Deployment
Political Stability
15%
Criteria
Val
Yes.
Democratic
$336.2
billion 5.3%
3
3
annual
growth
2
0
Yes.
Democratic.
2
Yes.
Democratic.
Good U.S.
relations
Sea Stability
Final
(Pirating)
100%
10%
Criteria
Val Score
Pirating in
Niger Delta
Region
1
2.5
$20.7 billion
Medium. High
7.1% annual 1 Drug Trafficking 2
growth
Trade.
1.75
1
$13.4 billion
2.5% annual 1
growth
3
1.5
3
$9.9 billion
Medium. High
6.8% annual 1 Drug Trafficking 2
growth
Trade.
1.4
3
$13.2 billion
2.9% annual 1
growth
1.15
Yes. Democratic 3
Varying. High
Illegal Drug
Trade
GDP
(2008 est.)
10%
Criteria
Val
Exceeds Requirements
Meets Requirement
May work. Not ideal
Not possible
No.
No.
3
14
Technical Case
 Operational Concept
 Scope and Context
 Architecture Evaluation
 Functional Decomposition
 Architecture Development
 DoDAF Diagrams
 Executable Architecture
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Operational Concept
System Boundary
Control
System
Warm Seawater is
External Input
Power Plant
Power to Power
Plant is System
Output
Cold Seawater is
External Input
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OTEC System P-Diagram
(Noise Factors)
•Temperature
•Sea state
•Weather
•Corrosion
(Input Signals)
•Water
•Startup Power
OTEC
System
(Output Functions)
•Power
•Water
Controls
•Water Pump
•Fluid Pump
•OTEC CPU
•Turbine
•Generator
•Heat Exchangers
•Pipes
•Working fluid
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Architecture Evaluation
Closed Cycle OTEC is the Most Feasible and Mature Approach
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Functional Decomposition
Provide Power
to Customers
(Stakeholder)
Power Plant Power
Distribution
(Stakeholder)
Personal
Generator
Oil
Company
Hydroelectric
Power
System Boundary
Operate
OTEC
System
Generate
Power
Pump
Working
Fluid
Pump Water
Condense
Working
Fluid
Evaporate
Working
Fluid
Drive
Turbine
Spin
Generator
Monitor
Generator
Power
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Control
OTEC
System
Monitor
Health
Start OTEC
System
Monitor
Fluid
Pressure
Monitor
Evaporator
temperature
OTEC African Deployment
Monitor
Pump
Power
Monitor
Turbine
Speed
Run OTEC
CPU
Control
System
Stop OTEC
System
Monitor
Condenser
temperature
19
External Systems/Context Diagrams
Context Diagram
Regulations
Performance
Rules
Authorization
Standards
Water
Startup Power
Status
Water
Operate OTEC
System A0
Power
Provide Power
to Power Grid
Consumer
Power
EXTERNAL
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OTEC IDEF0
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Architecture Development
The Six Stage Process: Structured Analysis
L. Wagenhals, A. Levis, SYST 621
OV-1, OV-4, OV-5
System Functional Mapping
SV-3, SV-4, SV-5a
Business Strategy
SV-8, SV-9
Market Analysis
Architecture Behavior
OV-6C, SV-10
CPN Tools
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OTEC African Deployment
22
DoDAF Diagrams
 Utilized CORE v5 to develop DoDAF views
 Developed applicable DoDAF diagrams for an
interoperable architecture
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OTEC System Requirements
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24
Executable Architecture
 Leads to significant new insights into the design and
operation of the OTEC system
 The structure CPN model is directly related to the
functionality represented in the architecture
Video
Simulation
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OTEC African Deployment
25
Executable Architecture Results
 The executable CPN model provided additional input
into the logical flow of the system
 System Control function benefited the most from the
model
 How to can the system be adjusted to maintain optimum
performance
 How can the system be stopped in the event of an error
 Led to additional requirements to perform control
functionality
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26
Market Analysis
Average OPEC Basket Price (USD)
 World Energy Goals
 Increase efficiency
 Decrease dependence on
foreign oil
 Clean, Carbon Free Fuels
 Renewable sources
$100.00
$90.00
$80.00
$70.00
$60.00
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$-
 Renewable Market Trends
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052006200720082009
Data Source: OPEC
 Renewable energy market will
grow at 431% in the next 10 years
 Oil predictions at 26% and natural gas at 46%.
Oil Industry Driving Change due to Rapidly Rising Costs, Limited Resources
and Political Instability in Major Supplying Countries
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Investment Strategy
Alternative Investment Strategies
Deployment
Contract Type
Risk
Profit
Internal
IR&D
High
High
Third Party
License Agreement
Low
Low
Shared Responsibility
Power Purchase Agreement
Med
Med
Market Introduction
HI Pilot
OTEC Plant




Commercial
OTEC Plant
Establish
Investment
Partner
Sign PPA
First commercial plant in areas with high $/kWh
Investor may have funds up-front or financing agreement
Installation timing may impact subsystem technology choices
Utilize Patent process, proprietary markings, and legal teaming agreements
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28
Program Risks
 16 Risks identified in Risk Register
OTEC Program Risk Register
 Each risk has a Risk Mitigation
Strategy, Status, Probability, &
Overall Risk Importance –
calculated as the sum of Schedule,
Cost and Performance Impact
 Impact Scores are on a scale of ‘0’
(No Impact) to ‘10’ (Extremely
High Impact)
OTEC Program Risk R15
Status
Managing
12/18/2009
ID
R15
Category
Cost
Description
Mitigation Strategy
Creation
Date
Perform studies to determine
the correct location for the
OTEC Platform OTEC platform, sizing of heat
9/1/2009
Costs
exchangers, pumps, cold
water pipe, and other major
subsystem components
OTEC African Deployment
Cost
10
Impact
Overall Probability
Techical Schedule Imporance
(%)
1
3
14
75
29
Affordability Calculations
 Assumptions
 100 MW Capacity, 99% Uptime, 30 year Financing at 8%
 Power Co. and Investor require 25% of income for internal costs
 Sponsor sale price for system affordability: $307M
Cash Flow Analysis
$4,000.00
Cumulative Present Value
 Discrete Chance Nodes
 Sales Income Growth
 O&M Cost Growth
 Fixed Expenses
 $307M Investment
Expected Value ($M)
$3,500.00
$3,000.00
$2,500.00
$2,000.00
$1,500.00
$1,000.00
$500.00
$$(500.00)
1
3
5
Expected Value ($M)
7
9
11
13
15
17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Worst Case ($M)
Best Case ($M)
Net Present Value is $1.7B in 30 years
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OTEC African Deployment
30
Growth Potential
 Electricity Capacity Expansion
 Additional OTEC systems could be installed
 Current system could be upgraded to include more
power modules
 Clean Water System
 Use the power created to create clean water
 Install an “Open-Cycle” system to create both at once
 Alternative Technology Solutions
 Geo-OTEC to power Oil Platforms
 Renewable Fuels – Ammonia as a Carbon Carrier
 Agriculture – Ammonia as a fertilizer
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OTEC African Deployment
31
Summary and Conclusions
 Consider methods to reduce system cost, consider:
 Sell directly to city to remove “middle-man”
 Platform cost savings: less-robust design, shorter CWP
 Recommend Africa installation after OTEC is ‘proven’ at large
scale
 Alternative technology approaches increase possible
installation area to include colder water regions
 Way Forward Recommendations
 Meet early and often with environmental policy teams regarding
licensing and permits to ensure compliance and a clear path ahead
 Begin talks with Nigerian government to express interest in
developing OTEC near Lagos; Establish a partnership with power
distributor
 Verify ocean temperatures & geography; Consider university
research
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OTEC African Deployment
32
Thank You
 Lockheed Martin Corporation
 Dr. Ted Johnson
 Kiffin Bryan
 GMU SEOR Faculty
 Dr. Thomas Speller
 Dr. Abbas K. Zaidi
 Faculty Reviewers
12/18/2009
OTEC African Deployment
33
Stakeholder Value Mapping
Stakeholder Goals Analysis
Rank
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Interfaces: Financing Company
Community: Local Government
Interfaces: Electric Company
Community: Local Citizens
Spec. Int. Grps: Sustainable Energy
Spec. Int. Grps: Environmental
Competitors: Oil Industry
Competitors: Hydro Power Industry
Design Team: LM Partners /Subs
Interfaces: Ocean Environment
Design Team: GMU SEOR Faculty
Row Sum
Goals Score
Goals Score (Indexed)
1.00 0.85 0.82 0.76 0.71 0.65 0.44 0.51 0.45 0.40 0.24 0.22
Design Team: Lockheed Martin
Relative Weight
2
1
1.00 Lower Cost of Electricy ($/kWh)
5
4
5
5
5
5
1
5
5
0
0
2
42
29
1.00
2
1.00 Minimal time to Market
5
2
5
4
5
4
2
5
5
3
1
1
42
27
0.95
3
0.98 Replaces Non-renewable Energy Sources
5
3
5
4
4
5
5
5
2
0
2
1
41
26
0.92
4
0.93 Adaptable to Future Markets (fuels, water)
5
3
5
2
5
4
3
4
4
2
0
2
39
24
0.83
5
0.93 Scalable capacity to meet increased Demands
5
1
5
4
4
5
1
4
4
2
2
2
39
23
0.81
6
0.81 Little/No Environmental Impact
4
3
4
2
3
5
5
0
0
2
5
1
34
17
0.59
7
0.76 Energy Capacity (MW) meets local needs
4
5
3
5
1
3
2
3
3
1
0
2
32
17
0.58
8
0.71 High System Availability
4
4
5
5
5
3
1
0
0
2
0
1
30
16
0.55
9
0.69 High System Efficiency
4
5
2
3
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
0
29
13
0.47
10
0.43 At least 30 yrs System Lifetime
4
5
1
3
1
0
1
0
0
2
1
0
18
6
0.20
11
0.36 Jobs Created Locally
2
2
5
1
4
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
15
4
0.15
12
0.33 Minimize Operations & Maintenance Cost
3
5
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
14
4
0.12
13
0.31 Minimize System Capital Cost
5
5
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
13
3
0.12
55
47
45
42
39
36
24
28
25
22
13
12
Relative Weight
Rank
Relevant
Stakeholders
12/18/2009
Stakeholder
Goals
Column Sum
OTEC African Deployment
34
Quality Analysis
Legend
House of Quality
Θ
Ο
▲
++
+
▬
▼
12/18/2009
Strong Relationship
9
Moderate Relationshp
3
Weak Relationship
1
Strong Positive Correlation
Positive Correlation
Negative Correlation
Strong Negative Correlation
OTEC African Deployment
35
Risk Register
Status
Active
ID
Category
R01 Schedule
Managing R02 Technical
Managing R03 Technical
Active
R04 Technical
Plan
R05 Technical
Active
R06 Cost
Active
R07 Technical
Active
R08 Technical
Managing R09 Technical
Managing R10 Technical
Managing R11
Active
Schedule/
Cost
R12 Technical
Managing R13 Technical
Plan
R14 Technical
Managing R15 Cost
Managing R16 Technical
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Description
Aggressive
Schedule
Incompatible
Technologies
Requirements
Creep
Meeting
Requirements
Training of
Personnel
Stability of Utility
Provider
Environmental
Impacts
Suitable platform
location (Best /
Selection of
subcontractors
Selection of
major componets
Suitable onshore
manufacturing
System security
Underwater
marine cable
Working Fluid
Leaks
OTEC Platform
Costs
Unfamiliar
Design Elements
Mitigation Strategy
Proactively track activities. Reconcile budgeted cost of work performed against acutal
cost of work performed on weekly basis. Keep open communication with customer and
partners
ensureInterface
all parties
awaregroup
of anywith
schedule
changes
or delays.toMaster
Schedule to
monthly
IPTare
working
partners
and suppliers
understand technology interfacing requirements and interface protocols. Ensure
Interface
Control firm
Documents(ICDs)
are stated
submitted,
reviewed,
and agreed upon
prior to
Work to develop
and agreed upon
and derived
requirements
with customer.
Establish Engineering Change review board and engineering change proposals as a
vehicle
documentingIntegrated
upscope activities.
Monitor
activities
and only
work to to
Create afor
Requirements
Project Team
(IPT) with
customer.
Participants
include stakeholders including: partners, customer, and internal team. IPT will serve to
discuss
andTraining
communicate
all requirements
changes
with team.
status
will be
Ensure that
and Technology
manuals
are budgeted
and Project
reviewed
againt
logisitics team for accurracy. Provide training material to the customer for final
approval
comments
prior
to finalthat
delivery.
Work withfor
Utility
provider
to ensure
proper infastructure is in place prior to Power
Purchase Contract is finalized and signed. Provide detailed requirements to local
utillity
provider
in development
such thatconcerns
proper eqiupment
may be located
Work with
local early
environmental
groupsphase
to understand
and particular
ecosystems in area of platform. Establish working dialog with community groups to
understand
issuestoand
these needs
into development
of the
system.
Work with NOAA
fullyfactor
understand
the ocean
bathemetry and
average
monthy
temperature at depth. By understanding enviornmental factors, the most feasible
location can be selected.
Leverage subcontractor research performend by the Lockheed Martin customer and
select subcontractors with a history exemplory performance and ethics.
Leverage expertise of partners and involve stakeholders early in process. Perform
market and early prototyping analysis.
Work with Nigerian Government to select an apporaprete fanufactoring facility. Work
with subcontracs team to identify commercially avaible ships, dry docks, tugs, and
similar marine construction crafts.
Piracy has been an issue for some Oil Refinaries in the Niger Delta. The OTEC system
will best practices to insure crew members are safe during there time on the platform.
Impact
Creation
Overall
Probability
Date Cost Tech Sch Importance
(%)
9/1/2009
6
10
0
16
50
9/1/2009
5
10
7
22
30
9/1/2009
4
5
4
13
30
9/1/2009
2
1
2
5
10
9/1/2009
3
5
3
11
10
9/1/2009
2
2
1
5
5
9/1/2009
1
1
3
5
10
9/1/2009
3
4
2
9
5
9/1/2009
1
3
1
5
10
9/1/2009
6
2
1
9
5
9/1/2009
3
1
3
7
10
9/1/2009
3
1
1
5
20
3
2
1
6
10
1
4
1
6
10
10
1
3
14
75
1
6
2
9
20
Size marine cable to handle 15% higher voltage rating that the expected peak power
9/1/2009
distrobution.
Work
with
local maintenance
environmental
groups to
understand
where
Develop
a strict
schedule
and
procedurethe
for particurlar
the workingenvironment
fluid subsystem.
Crew are to follow the documented procedure and OSHA regulations to ensure ammonia
spills are handled as mandated in regulations.
Perform studies to determine the correct location for the OTEC platform, sizing of heat
exchangers, pumps, cold water pipe, and other major subsystem components
9/1/2009
Leverage expertise of partners and involve stakeholders
9/1/2009
OTEC African Deployment
36
X
Pump Power Sensor
Water Pump
Tachometer
Turbine
Hot Water Pipe
X
Power Sensor
X
Generator
Pressure Sensor
X
X
X
X
X
Fluid Pump
ThermostatE
Evaporator
ThermostatC
Condenser
System
Functions
Control OTEC System
Start OTEC System
Run OTEC CPU
Control System
Stop OTEC System
Generate Power
Pump Working Fluids
Pump Water
Evaporate Working Fluid
Drive Turbine
Spin Generator
Condense Working Fluid
Monitor Health
Monitor Turbine Speed
Monitor Generator
Power
Monitor Condenser
Temperature
Monitor Evaporator
Temperature
Monitor Fluid Pressure
Monitor Pump Power
Cold Water Pipe
System
Components
Central Computer
System Functions to Component Mapping
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
OTEC African Deployment
Project Plan
 WBS Developed based on Project Guidance
 Tasks organized and linked in MS Project
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Architecture Development
L. Wagenhals, A. Levis, SYST 621 Lecture 8
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Technology S-Curves
 Key technology Focus Areas
 Cold Water Pipe
 Turbine Technology
Cold Water Pipe
Turbine Technology
Steel
Standard Steel Blades
Fiber Glass
Two Pressure Non-Heating
Cycles
Carbon Fiber
MARKET PENTRATION
Thermosetting Polymer
Multiple Pressure ReHeating Cycles
Metal Matrix Composites
Multiple Pressure ReHeating w/Nano Coatings
Advanced Steam Bottling
TODAY
1993
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TODAY
2015
1970
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CPN Model
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CPN Simulation Video
http://mason.gmu.edu/~amccull1/files/OTEC_CPN_Simulation.wmv
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