Transcript Economic Facts

MORe Economic Facts
What’s Being Said About the
Economy and Real Estate Today
National Association of REALTORS®
Total existing
home sales
Listing inventory
remains 7.6%
below a year
ago
30-year
conventional, fixed
rate mortgage rose
to 4.07%
in
June from 3.54%
in May and is the
highest since
October 2011
increased
15.2% in from
June 2013
National Association of REALTORS®
Existing home sales in the
Midwest were
Short sales were on
the market for a
median of 68
days
unchanged in June
at and are 17.5% higher
than a year ago
Distressed homes
were 15% of June
sales, down from 18%
in May and 26% in
June 2012
Median time on market in
June was 37
days and is
47% faster than June
2012.
National Association of REALTORS®
Median existing
home price was
$214,300 in
June
up 13.5%
from June 2012
16
consecutive
months of
year-over-year
price increases
"Inventory conditions will continue to broadly favor
sellers and contribute to above-normal price growth."
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association
of REALTORS®.
NAR June Pending Home Sales Report
Illinois Association of REALTORS®
June marks 24
consecutive months of Illinois home
sale increases. Illinois home sales increased 14.9% in
June over June 2012; statewide sales totaled 15,268
up 13,286 in June 2012
Median price increased
9.7% to
$170,000 from June 2012
Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicagoland PMSA Info
It took 63 days on
The sales inventory
average to sell a home
dropped 37.4%
down from 84 days in
from a year ago to
June 2012.
Home sales (singlemedian price in June
38,082 units
family and
2013 was $206,000 in
condominiums) in June
the Chicago PMSA, up
totaled 11,103
13.2% from $182,000 in
homes sold, up
June 2012
18.7% from June 2012
See IAR Talking Points Exclusive
to IAR Members
Illinois Association of REALTORS®
"To have this extended run of year-over-year sales gains
shows that the housing
market in Illinois is
indeed recovering," said Michael Oldenettel, CRS,
GRI, president of IAR.
See IAR Talking Points Exclusive
to IAR Members
U of I Housing Price Forecast
"The rising house prices suggest some
significant movements toward a
more
stable housing market," noted
Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Director of the Regional
Economics Applications Laboratory of the
University of Illinois.
"New analysis of the foreclosure process
suggests that a
return to prerecession levels should occur early next
year, further enhancing the housing recovery."
Median price for the
Chicagoland PMSA
for July-Sept. is
expected to
rise by 18.3% in
July, 20.3% for Aug.
and 20.2% in Sept.
U of I Housing Price Forecast
For July, August, and September in the Chicagoland PMSA….
Sales forecast
point to
increases
between
20.5% to
27.7% for
Chicago PMSA
In June, 2,181
houses were
newly filed for
foreclosures in
Pending sales
figure is 209.5,
down 4.8% from
last month and up
31.8% from a
year ago.
Chicago PMSA
(65.9% down from
a year ago.)
U of I Housing Price Forecast
Housing inventory reached its lowest
recorded level since 2008, with
65,658 for Illinois and 38,082 for Chicago
PMSA
Homes priced above
Homes between $300k
and $500k required
Illinois has 5.0 months
worth of inventory and
Chicago PMSA has 3.5
months of inventory
$700k experienced 64
days on market
the shortest
time to sale, 50 days
The Conference Board
Consumer Confidence Index
for Illinois and 46 days
for Chicago PMSA
highest level since January
2008
increased to 81.4, the
U of I Housing Price Forecast
Read the full REAL July Report/Forecast:
Read the full Second Quarter Forecast:
Mainstreet Organization of REALTORS®
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Sales of single-family, detached
homes in suburban Chicago
increased 17.7% in June (based on
year over year stats)
Median sales price for detached
homes increased 9.5% from June a
year ago
Detached homes under contract
increased 36.5% in June
Mainstreet Organization of REALTORS®
"A slow and steady growth
in home prices, combined with
more properties coming on the market, is creating ideal
conditions for both buyers and sellers," said Tonya Corder, president of
MORe. "Buyers especially should look to act
soon to lock in
today's low interest rates."
Mainstreet Organization of REALTORS®
DuPage County
Sales were up
24.2% to1,495
Lake County
Sales were up
17.2% to 1,062
Median home
sale price was
up 6.5% to
$245,000
Cook County
Sales were up
14.8% to 5,938
June Home Sales
Median home
sale price was
up 16.7% to
$210,000
Median sale
price was up
11.9% to
$235,000
National Association of Home Builders
"Builders are seeing more motivated buyers coming
through their doors as the inventory of existing homes for sale
continues to tighten," noted NAHB Chief Economist
David Crowe.
National Association of Home Builders
Sales of newly built single-family
homes surged 8.3% to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of
497,000 units
Their fastest pace in
the last five years!
Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family
homes rose 6 points to 57 on the National Association of Home
Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for July.
Fannie Mae
We are keeping a very close eye on the effect
of rising mortgage rates
on the housing market and the economy, but our July forecast is little
changed from last month," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. "We
continue to see growth in housing partly due to an increase in existing home
sales as buyers
choose to act while rates remain near historic lows."
Potential homebuyers may enter the purchase
market sooner rather than later as more
Americans expect mortgage rates and home
prices to climb
May Fannie Mae news release
Fannie Mae June 2013
National Housing Survey
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The share of respondents who say mortgage rates will go up
during the next 12 months jumped 11 percentage points to 57%,
the highest level in the survey's three-year history
The share of respondents who say home prices will go up in the
next year also hit a survey high of 57%
72% say now is a good time to buy and 36% say it is a good time
to sell
The share who expect their personal financial situation to improve
during the next year climbed to 46%, the highest level since June
2010
Freddie Mac
Over the next
couple of years,
house price
growth should
gradually ease
until settling in at
around 3 percent a
year.
The blistering pace in house price
appreciation is unlikely
to
continue, but rather moderate and
grow at a seasonally adjusted rate
closer to 3 to 4 percent in the
second half of the year, for a total gain
of 8 to 9 percent for the calendar
year.
In addition, housing starts fell in
June to the slowest pace since
August 2012.
Freddie Mac
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30-year fixed mortgages were up a
full percentage point between the
start of this year and the middle of
May, and it's likely to rise further in
the coming year
Through May, home sales were on
their best first-half pace since 2007
In the second half of the year, we
anticipate more modest growth with
sales (new and existing) up an
additional 2% and starts up 12%
relative to the first half
Freddie Mac
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Indications of a slowing in the economic
recovery also placed downward
pressure on mortgage rates
Consumer sentiment fell to a three
month low in July while retail sales in
June grew by only 0.4%, which was half
of the market consensus forecast