Transcript National Hydrological Program Managers Conference

Northeast River Forecast Center
National Weather Service
Implementation of the Community
Hydrologic Prediction System
David Vallee
Hydrologist-in-Charge
Northeast RFC
1
NROW
November 4-5, 2009
Outline
• First – a bit about NERFC
• The Community Hydrologic
Prediction System
– Background and history
– Why are we doing this?
– How are we doing it?
NERFC Service Area
Major river basins
include Genesee,
Hudson, Mohawk,
Housatonic,
Connecticut,
Merrimack ,
Blackstone,
Pawtuxet,
Kennebec ,Penobscot
and Saint John
~180 forecast points
Staffing profile: Hydrologist-in-Charge
Service Coordination Hydrologist and Development & Operations Hydrologist
4 Senior Hydrologists & 1 Senior Hydromet Analysis & Support Meteorologist (HAS)
3 Hydrologists & 2 HAS
1 Admin Support/Hydro Technician
Thirteen River Forecast Centers
River Forecast Center Responsibilities



Calibrate and implement
hydrologic /hydraulic models
Perform robust Data QC
Provide 48-72 hour QPF and
Temperature forecasts






River flow and stage forecasts at
180 locations (220 basins)
Flash Flood Guidance
Ensemble streamflow predictions
Ice Jams and Dam Breaks
Water Supply forecasts
Partner with NOAA Line Offices
to address issues relating to
Hazard Resiliency, Water
Resource Services, Ecosystem
Health and Management, and
Climate Change
Moderate flooding - Connecticut
River at Portland, CT.
Met-member Based Short Range Ensemble
River Forecast System


Unbiased GEFS and SREF
model forcings (temp/precip)
Runs 2x-day for each model
Decision Support at the local level
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/self_brief.shtm
lGetting the high priority hydro-meteorological
information at their fingertips!
Providing Remote or On-site Support!
Whittenton
Dam Crisis
Montpelier
Ice Jam
NOAA Regional Collaboration
Harmful Algae Bloom Research
http://www.oceanservice.noaa.gov/redtide
NARR 1000 mb monthly wind anomolies (May 2005 and June 2009)
Future Services:
National Inundation Mapping
Program
x
Community Hydrologic Prediction System
CHPS
NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs)
are key partners in the provision of water resource information.
The Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) will enable
NOAA’s water research, development enterprise and operational service
delivery infrastructure to be integrated and leveraged with other federal
water agency activities, academia, and the private sector.
Algorithm
Services
Control
Services
Data
Services
Security
Services
11
Display
Services
So Why the Move to CHPS?
To meet the growing demands of our customers
Floods, Drought, Water Supply, HABs,
Power Generation, Fisheries Management,
Ecosystem Health, Water Quality, Salt Water
Intrusion, Dam/Levee Failures,
Tropical Cyclone Impacts,
Climate Change Impacts
Why CHPS?
1970s
1980s
1990s
• NWSRFS was a great architecture
originally developed for use on
mainframe computers
– lacks modern modularity
– difficult to add new models and
techniques
– inhibits collaboration and research
to operations
• CHPS will allow:
– greater ease in implementing new
models
– greater collaboration with agency
partners, universities, international
community
13
2000s
2003
today
Beta Sites
(2003)
2006
2007
Exploration phase in 2003
2008
2009
2010
2011
• The CHPS Acceleration Team – or CAT
pursuit of CHPS
CAT River Forecast Centers
– ABRFC, NCRFC, NWRFC volunteered
to work w/ OHD. CNRFC later drafted.
– Criteria established through evaluation of
NWSRFS strengths and weaknesses
(Apex facilitation, available from HSEB)
– Evaluate Delft-FEWS as a CHPS
candidate
– FEWS = Flood Early Warning System
FEWS Architecture
(2003)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
What is FEWS?
– JAVA based system and repository for hydrologic and
hydraulic modeling
– Client/server architecture
– Mature system developed by Delft Hydraulics|WL (now
Deltares), a Dutch foundation, since the 1990s
– Deterministic and ensemble capabilities
– Employs Postgres database, system synchronization
•
Backup and stand-by
– Inputs are grids!
15
FEWS Users
16
CAT Recommendation
(2003)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Approved by Office Director – Gary Carter – Jan 17, 2008
• Proceed with implementation of Delft-FEWS as the
CHPS software infrastructure.
• Target operational use at all RFCs within 3 years.
• Resource implications
– Re-direct OHD resources toward CHPS/FEWS
– Terminate “dead-end” NWSRFS enhancements
– Align/re-evaluate HSMB-oriented “Research to Operations”
(RTO) projects
17
Implementation Strategy
(2003)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
• Port models that require calibration
–
–
–
–
Hydrologic/Hydraulic Models
Soil Moisture Models
Snow Models
Reservoir Models
BASEFLOW, SARROUTE, CONS_USE, LAG/K, LAY-COEF, TATUM,
TIDEREV, MUSKROUT, RES-J, RSNWELEV, SNOW-17, CHANLOSS,
STAGE-Q, SSARRESV, STAGEREV, UNIT-HG, RES-SNGL, SAC-SMA
• Create adapters for other NWSRFS routines we wish to
maintain
• Create adapters for several new models (e.g. HEC-RAS)
18
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Services
• FEWS will provide for existing level of ensemble
operations, products, and services
• Combination of porting existing software meshed with
existing FEWS capabilities
Current Conditions:
Soil
Snow
Reservoir Levels
Streamflow
Historical
Data
Ensemble of
Precipitation
Temperature
Time Series
Forecast
NWSRFS
Hydrologic
Models
19
Models in FEWS
Model
ISIS
PDM
TCM
Type
Hydrodynamics
Rainfall-Runoff
Rainfall-Runoff
Supplier/Owner
HR/Halcrow
CEH
CEH
Country
UK
UK
UK
KW
Routing (kinematic wave)
CEH
UK
PACK
ARMA
PRTF
Snow Melt
Error Correction
Event Based RR
CEH
CEH
PlanB
UK
UK
UK
TRITON
Surge propagation/Overtopping
PlanB
UK
STF
Transfer functions
EA
UK
DODO
Routing (layered Muskingum)
EA
UK
MCRM
Modflow96/VKD
Mike11
NAM
Rainfall-Runoff
3D groundwater
Hydrodynamics
Rainfall-Runoff
EA
Deltares/Adam Taylor
DHI
DHI
UK
Netherlands/UK
Denmark
Denmark
LISFLOOD
Distributed Rainfall-Runoff
JRC
Italy
TOPKAPI
Rainfall-Runoff
Univ. of Bologna
Italy
HBV
Rainfall-Runoff (inc snowmelt)
SHMI
Sweden
Vflo
Distributed Rainfall-Runoff
Vieux & Assiciates
USA
SWMM
Urban Rainfall-Runoff
USGS
USA
HEC-RAS
Snow17
SACSM
Unit-H
PRMS
SynHP
Hydrodynamics
Snow Melt
Rainfall-Runoff
Unit-Hydrograph
Rainfall-Runoff
Hydrodynamics
USACE
NWS
NWS
NWS
Univ. of Karlsruhre
BfG
USA
USA
USA
USA
Germany
Germany
SOBEK
Hydrodynamics, Water Quality, RR
Deltares
Netherlands
SOBEK-2d
Linked 1d/2d inundation modelling
Deltares
Netherlands
Sacramento
Rainfall-Runoff
Deltares
Netherlands
RIBASIM
Water distribution + Reservoir
Deltares
Netherlands
REW
Distributed Rainfall-Runoff
Deltares
Netherlands
DELFT3D
2/3D Hydrodynamics/ Water quality
Deltares
Netherlands
TWAM
2D Hydrodynamics
PlanB
UK
20
Implementation Strategy
(2003)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
• Two tiers of deployment
4 CAT RFCs: CN, NW, AB, NE
– Initial hardware delivered Oct ‘08
(Stand-by System)
– Initial migration software and
training occurred in February ‘09
– Second suite of operational
hardware delivery fall 2009
(On-line System)
Parallel operations are about to
– Full Baseline Operating
commence at NERFC!!
Capability BOC-1 arrived in
October 2009.
21
Implementation Strategy
(2003)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
• Two tiers of deployment
Remaining 9 RFCs (BOC-2)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Initial hardware delivery in October 2009
Migration/Systems training – Fall 2009
Migration begins January 2010
Parallel operations by October 2010
Goal is to “Retire” NWSRFS by January 2011
Entire system needs to be baselined into
AWIPS II configuration at the RFCs
RFCs not required to drop NWSRFS until “fully ready”
22
Ultimate Outcome:
• CHPS will include the same science algorithms
initially – but tremendous potential to expand
• Improved Efficiency for Forecaster
– Greatly enhanced visualization, gridded forcings, and
the ability to display time series of many more variables
• Improved Tools for “What If” Scenarios
• Improved Capabilities for New Science Integration
– Through the use of Adaptors; HEC-RAS, RESSIM
– Availability to use models in FEWS from other partners
Architecture
Duty System
Duty (On-line) and Stand-by system
Client
Client
Client
– All data is synchronized between
system via the Master Controller
Operator Client
Operator Client
Operator Client
Forecasting Shell
Server
– NWS testing synchronization to paired
offices – similar to WFOs
Stand-by System
Master Controller
Server
Master Controller
Server
Master Controller
JBoss
Tomcat
Forecasting Shell
Master Controller
Jboss
Tomcat
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Server
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Etc
Etc
Database Server
Database Server
Central
Database
(PostgreSQL)
Central
Database
(PostgreSQL)
Forecasting
Archive
(PostgreSQL)
Client
Client
Client
Operator Client
Operator Client
Operator Client
Forecasting Shell
Server
Forecasting Shell
Client
Client
Client
RFC
Master Controller
Server
Master Controller
Server
Master Controller
JBoss
Tomcat
Master Controller
Jboss
Tomcat
Operator Client
Operator Client
Operator Client
Forecasting Shell
Server
Forecasting Shell
Server
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Etc
Etc
Client
Client
Client
NWSHQ
Master Controller
Server
Master Controller
Server
Master Controller
JBoss
Tomcat
Master Controller
Jboss
Tomcat
Forecasting Shell
Server
Operator Client
Operator Client
Operator Client
Forecasting Shell
Server
Client
Client
Client
NOHRSC
Master Controller
Server
Master Controller
Server
Master Controller
JBoss
Tomcat
Master Controller
Jboss
Tomcat
Forecasting Shell
Server
Operator Client
Operator Client
Operator Client
Forecasting Shell
Server
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Etc
Etc
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Etc
Etc
WFO??
Master Controller
Server
Master Controller
Server
Master Controller
JBoss
Tomcat
Master Controller
Jboss
Tomcat
Database Server
Database Server
Database Server
Database Server
Database Server
Central
Database
(PostgreSQL)
Central
Database
(PostgreSQL)
Central
Database
(PostgreSQL)
Central
Database
(PostgreSQL)
Central
Database
(PostgreSQL)
Central
Database
(PostgreSQL)
Forecasting
Archive
(PostgreSQL)
Forecasting
Archive
(PostgreSQL)
Forecasting
Archive
(PostgreSQL)
Forecasting Shell
Forecasting Shell
Etc
Database Server
Forecasting Shell
Server
Etc
Database Server
Database Server
Central
Database
(PostgreSQL)
Central
Database
(PostgreSQL)
Forecasting
Archive
(PostgreSQL)
24
Display Concepts
25
Northeast River Forecast Center
National Weather Service
Implementation of the Community
Hydrologic Prediction System
David Vallee
Hydrologist-in-Charge
Northeast RFC
NROW XI
November 4-5, 2009
26