Transcript TRALARIN TEAM PROJECT

TRALARIN TEAM PROJECT
Juan José Fuertes Cebrián
Pablo Genovard Carpio
Marta Rubio Forner
Lukasz Kusowski
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LOCATION:
DULCES CONCHIN IS SITUATED IN THE CARMEN’S
DISTRICT, ONE OF THE MOST FAMOUS PLACES IN
VALENCIA. IT’S IN THE CENTER OF THIS DISTRICT.
IT’S CLOSED TO NA JORDANA, A REALLY
IMPORTANT FALLA. THIS IS THE REASON BECAUSE
MANY TOURISTS VISIT THIS ZONE.
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LOCATION BENEFITS:
City Center
Tourists
Public transport
Easy to get it
Many people working
Location detail
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HISTORY:
DULCES CONCHIN BELONGS TO CONCHIN. THIS WOMAN BEGAN
TO WORK IN A LITTLE ROOM OF HER HUSBAND’S FACTORY. SHE
CARRIED HER FIRST CROISSANTS TO ANOTHER BAKERY. IN THE
50’S MANY PEOPLE DIDN’T HAVE ENOUGH MONEY TO FOUND AN
OWN FIRM.
THE FIRM STARTED TO GO QUITE WELL. THE OTHER BAKERY
BURNT CONCHIN’S CROISSANTS BECAUSE THEY WERE LOSING
MANY CUSTOMERS.
THEN, CONCHIN’S HUSBAND GAVE HER A SMALL PLACE WHERE
SHE COULD MAKE CROISSANTS.
AFTER ALL, THE BUSINESS GROWED AND GROWED
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BUSINESS SECTOR:
THIS FIRM IS A SMALL TRADITIONAL BAKERY. IT
DELIVERS TO THE CUSTOMERS CROISSANTS,
BREAD, AND OTHER BAKERY PRODUCTS.
Two examples of gastronomy firms
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BAKERY BUSINESS SECTOR IN VALENCIA:
BIG FIRMS
(GASTRONOMY,
SELLERS…)
THIS FIRM
SMALL
SHOP
SMALL
SHOP
SMALL
SHOP
THESE SMALL SHOPS AND THE BIG
FIRMS, ARE NON PRODUCERS, SO
THAT’S THE BUSINESS
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COMPETITORS:
THE BAKERY DOESN’T A LOT OF COMPETITORS.
THEY DELIVER THEIR PRODUCTS IN ORDER TO
TOUT (SELL AGAIN);
THE MOST IMPORTANT FOR THIS FIRM IS THE
QUALITY.
THE OTHER 15 OR 20 COMPETITORS HAVE LOWER
PRICES, BUT IT DOESN’T MIND. THIS FIRM OFFERS
MORE QUALITY WITH A HIGHER PRICE, AND
THERE’S NO ONE WHO DOES IT.
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COMPETITORS (other closer bakeries):
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STRATEGY:
NOWADAYS, THE STRATEGY OF THE BAKERY IS REALLY
CONSERVATIVE. THE FIRM DOESN’T WANT TO GROW UP.
THE REASON IS THAT, TODAY THEY CONTROL THE MARKET, THE
PRICES, THE SELLERS AND THE PROBLEMS THAT COULD HAPPEN
ARE SMALL PROBLEMS.
THE BUSINESS MODEL, HAS LOTS OF YEARS AND HAS GONE
QUITE WELL; THEY DON’T WANT TO CHANGE THAT.
ALL THE WORK IS “HAND-MADE”; THEY FIRM DOESN’T HAVE
MANY MACHINES; THE PRODUCTION IS REALLY TRADITIONAL
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PRODUCTION DETAIL
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SHOP DETAIL
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SUGGESTED FUTURE STRATEGY:
THERE IS ANOTHER BAKERY CLOSER THAN OUR’S THAT COULD
BE SET AS AN EXAMPLE TO ELABORATE A FUTURE STRATEGY.
THIS BAKERY IS IN PLAZA DE BOLSERÍA. THE FIRM IS NEAR A
FAMOUS PUB, A DISCO AND OTHER CLUBS (LIKE PASTELERIA
CONCHIN). THE BUSINESS IS TO OPEN ALL NIGHT AND TO GET
CUSTOMERS IN THE STREET. IT’S A FACT THAT PEOPLE WHO
GET’S OUT FROM A PARTY, AND AFTER DANCING, ARE HUNGRY.
MANY PEOPLE WALK AROUND BARRIO DEL CARMEN LOOKING
FOR SOME FOOD, AND IN THIS WAY WE COULD FIND A GOOD
BUSINESS.
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ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE:
OWNER (PEDRO)
12 BAKERY EMPLOYEES
DELIVERY VAN
DELIVERY VAN
DELIVERY VAN
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PRODUCTS:
DULCES CONCHIN, PRODUCES
CROISSANTS, AND OTHER BAKERY
PRODUCTS (INCLUDING SALTED
PRODUCTS). THEY SELL CROISSANTS
TO MANY BUYERS; FOR THE FIRM IS
REALLY IMPORTANT TO HAVE GOOD
PRODUCTS AND THEY NEED TO HAVE
ALWAYS SOME STOCK.
THIS FACT, IS SOLVED. THEY HAVE A
BIG FREEZER WITH CROISSANTS.
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FREEZER DETAIL
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DESIGN OF A NEW GOOD:
A SALTED CROISSANT. WE THINK IT WOULD BE A
NEW GOOD FOR THIS FIRM.
IT COULD BE SOLD TO THE SAME CUSTOMERS
WITHOUT MEANING A COMPETITION BETWEEN THIS
NEW GOOD AND THE OTHER SWEET PRODUCTS.
IN CASE OF MASSIVE PRODUCTION IT WOULD
BE NOT NECESSARY TO BUY OTHER MACHINES.
THESE SALTED CROISSANTS CAN BE MADE BY
THE MACHINES THEY ALREADY HAVE.
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A estimation : the age of the customers
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A estimation : Which type of customers are
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Other Firms
"Shoppers"
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OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
WHAT IS OM?
THE PRODUCTION OF GOODS AND SERVICE
WE HAVE OUR INPUTS WHICH WE CONVERT INTO
GOODS AND SERVICES, THE OUTPUTS.
IN OUR CASE, THE BAKERS WITH THE EGGS,
SUGGAR, AND FLOUR ARE BE ABLE TO MAKE
CROISSANTS AND THE OTHER PRODUCTS.
OM
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10 DECISION AREAS OF OM

GOODS & SERVICE DESIGN

QUALITY

PROCESS & CAPACITY DESIGN

LOCATION SELECTION

LAYOUT DESIGN

HUMAN RESOURCE AND JOB DESIGN

SUPPLY-CHAIN MANAGEMENT

INVENTORY

SCHEDULING

MAINTENANCE
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GOODS AND SERVICES DESIGN
DULCES CONCHIN IS A FIRM SPECIALIZED IN BAKERY
PRODUCTS. THE CROISSANT IS THE PRODUCT WHICH
IDENTIFIES THE FIRM; THE FIRM IS KNOWN DUE TO THE
QUALITY OF THIS PRODUCT.
THIS IS AN UNIQUE GOOD BECAUSE IT’S JUST PRODUCED BY
A TRADITIONAL WAY. IT’S NOT AN INDUSTRIAL BAKERY,
AND IT TASTES REALLY GOOD.
THEY ALSO HAVE SALTED PRODUCTS LIKE PASTIES,BREAD… BUT
ALL THE PRODUCTS ARE HAND MADE. NOWDAYS, THIS FACT
IS TOO DIFICULT TO FIND. THIS FIRM OFFERS QUALITY
PRODUCTS WITH A GOOD PRICE; IT’S NOT THE PRICE THAT
OTHERS HAVE, BUT IT’S REALLY GOOD TRADITIONAL BAKERY;
THE FIRM OBTAINS THE RAW MATERIALS MOSTLY FROM ITS
SUPPLIERS.
THE MAJORITY OF THE SUPPLIERS HAVE DELIVERED
PRODUCTS FOR A LOT OF YEARS. THEY ARE ONLY RELIABLE
SUPPLIERS.
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QUALITY
QUALITY IS ONE OF THE MAIN GOALS WHICH DULCES
CONCHIN ADOPTED SINCE ITS BEGINNING. THIS IS THE REASON
WHY THEY PRODUCE ALL THEIR PRODUCTS BY HAND.
IN ORDER TO SHOW THE COSTUMERS THE QUALITY OF THEIR
PRODUCTS, PEOPLE HAVE SEEN THE PROCCES OF MAKING
THROUGH THE WINDOWS IN MANY TIMES.
THE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LAST YEARS HAS DONE THAT
CUSTOMERS CHOOSE THIS BAKERY BEFORE THAN OTHERS.
HOW PEDRO’S WORKERS RECOMMEND
US TO DO THE CROISSANTS?

DISSOLVE THE SUGAR AND SALT.
ADD THE POWDERED MILK.
POUR THE FLOUR IN A FOOD PROCESSOR
EQUIPPED AND COMBINE THE SALTED AND
SWEET WATER.


WAIT FOR 30 MINUTES TO GET DOUBLE IN VOLUME
ROLL OUT THE FOUR EXTREMITIES OF THE CROSS.
PUT THE SOFT BUTTER IN THE CENTER



CUT A TRIANGLE AND ROLL THE CROISSANTS.
PUT THE CROISSANTS IN A WARM PLACE
FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS
BON APPÉTIT !!!
PROCESS AND CAPACITY DESIGN
THE PRODUCTION OF DULCES CONCHIN IS ABOUT 50 KILOS PER
DAY.
PRODUCTS ARE DELIVERED TO TRADITIONAL MARKETS,
OTHER BAKERIES AND BIG SHOPS. IT ALSO DELIVERS GOODS TO
RESTAURANTS, BIG EVENTS, AND CATERINGS.
THE FIRM HAS A SMALL SHOP IN VALENCIA, AND THE
FACTORY IS SITUATED BEHIND THE SHOP.
LOCATION SELECTION
DULCES CONCHIN IS SITUATED IN THE CARMEN’S DISTRICT,
ONE OF THE MOST FAMOUS PLACES IN VALENCIA. IT’S IN THE
CENTER OF THIS DISTRICT.
IT’S CLOSED TO NA JORDANA, A REALLY IMPORTANT FALLA.
THE CHOICE OF THE PLACE WAS DETERMINED BY THE BIG
FACTORY OF THE HUSBAND. FIRST OF ALL IT
WAS A SMALL ROOM, AND AFTER ALL IT’S A SHOP IN THE SAME
PLACE THAT THE FACTORY WAS.
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LAYOUT DESIGN
THE LAYOUT DESIGN IS
ALWAYS THE SAME.
IT’S A TRADITIONAL
DESIGN FOR ALL THE
CUSTOMERS.
THE PRODUCTS ARE ALWAYS
SOLD IN PAPER (BAKERY
PAPER) AND ALSO IN
PLASTIC BOXES.
OTHER DESING CUOLD BE
SOMITHING LIKE THIS:
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HUMAN RESSOURCE AND JOB DESIGN
DULCES CONCHIN HAS 15 EMPLOYEES. ALL OF THEM ARE
DIRECTED BY PEDRO (CONCHIN’S SON) WHO IS THE
OWNER.
THE DECISION ABOUT EACH PERSON DOES IS VERY
IIMPORTANT. THIS IS THE REASON FOR EVERYONE HAS A
CONCRETE TASK; MANY OF THE EMPLOYEES ARE PRODUCING
CROISSANTS (HAND MADE); OTHERS PUT THEM IN THE OVEN,
DELIVER THEM TO ANOTHERS BAKERIES, AND THEN THE
DELIVERERS.
DULCES CONCHIN IT’S ALSO IMPROVING. THE OWNER HAS A
FACTORY IN THE METROPOLITAN AREA TO VALENCIA, IN ORDER
TO LEADER THE PRODUCTION; THIS FACTORY NOW IS A
PROJECT BUT MAYBE IN THE FUTURE IT WILL BE REAL.
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MAINTENANCE
THE FIRM IS A TRADITIONAL BUSINESS; THEY HAVE THE WAY
TO PRODUCE WITHOUT HAVING PROBLEMS AND MAKING MONEY.
PEDRO SAYS:”WE’RE REALLY CONSERVATIVE AND AT THE
MOMENT WE DON’T WANT TO DO OTHER TASKS”.”THE
QUALITY OF OUR HAND MADE PRODUCTS TOGETHER WITH
THE NECESSITY OF THE PEOPLE TO EAT BAKERY PRODUCTS
ARE OUR KEY OF THE SUCCESS.
NOWADAYS THEY’RE NOT THINKING IN MAKING THE BUSINESS
BIGGER.
SCHEDULING
THE WAY OF THE PRODUCTION IS NOT SO FAST BUT IT
GUARANTEES THE QUALITY.
THE PRODUCTION BEGINS AT 3’00 AM AND THE DELIVERING
BEGINS AT 7’00 AM. AT THIS TIME, MANY CROISSANTS MUST
BE MADE.
SUPPLY CHAIN-MANAGEMENT
THE WORKERS USE A VERTICAL INTEGRATION STRATEGY:
PEDRO
WORKERS
¡SUCCESS!
SUPPLIERS
CUSTOMERS
USUALLY EACH MEMBER OF THE HIERARCHY PRODUCES A
DIFFERENT PRODUCT OR SERVICE, AND THE PRODUCTS
COMBINE TO SATISFY A COMMON NEED.
INVENTORY
DULCES CONCHIN HAS 8 MACHINES IN THE SHOP.
PEDRO, THE OWNER IS THE MAN WHO MAKES ALL
THE MACHINES TO GO WELL.
THE SUPPLIERS BRING THE INGREDIENTS TO THE SHOP. A
NUMBER OF THEM ARE FROZENED. THE OTHER PART IS USED TO
PRODUCE.
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"Hows vs.Hows"
QUALITY
HOUSE:
RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN
CUSTOMER DESIRES
AND THE
FIRM/PRODUCT
CAPABILITIES
"Whats
vs. Hows".
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CONCLUSIONS OF HOQ

THE PRICE AND THE FLAVOUR ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT
FACTORS.

IMPROVE OUR MARKETING IN OTHER AREAS.

EXPAND OUR AREA OF OPERATIONS.

HAVE MORE DIVERTSITY OF PRODUCTS.
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Forecasting Approaches
Qualitative Methods
They are used with new products or new technology.
They involve intuition, experience.
Quantitative Methods
They are used when situation is ‘stable’ & historical data exist,
with existing products and current technology.
They involve mathematical techniques.
They must coexist to make the forecasting as
efficient as possible.
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Quantitative Forecasting
As we couldn´t ask costumers, or talk with experts to help
us in a qualitative way, we are working with quantitative
forecasting to study the sales of our bakery :
-Moving Average Method n=3
-Exponential Smoothing a=0.10
-Weighted Moving Average Method
(We thought it should require more historical
data than the one we have).
Since the beginnings of Dulces Conchín, the firm has always
been growing all along the years and increasing its sales,
becoming one of the leaders in its sector in its location.
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Quantitative Forecasting
As you can see in the following table, Dulces Conchín
is reaching every year continually improvements.
Year
Gain (€)
2000
150000
2001
2002
148000
150000
2003
160000
2004
165000
2005
170000
2006
190000
2007
216000
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Quantitative Forecasting
Moving Average Method n=3
function x=mediamovil(Y,n,t)
for i=4:length(Y)+1
x(i-3)=(Y(i-3)+Y(i-2)+Y(i-1))/n;
end
plot (t(4:end),x,'r');
XLABEL('Year')
YLABEL('Gain(€)')
grid
hold
plot(t(1:end-1),Y,’g’);
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Quantitative Forecasting
Moving Average Method n=3
Forecasting
for 2008 :
192000 €
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Quantitative Forecasting
Exponential Smoothing a=0.10
Ft = Ft-1 + a· (At-1 - Ft-1)
function x=exponential(Y,xini,n,a,t)
x(1)=xini;
for i=2:length(Y)+1
x(i)=x(i-1)+a*(Y(i-1)-x(i-1));
end
plot(t,x,'*');
hold
grid
plot (t,x,'r');
XLABEL('Year')
YLABEL('Gain(€)')
plot(t(1:end-1),Y,'g');
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Quantitative Forecasting
Moving Average Method n=3
Forecasting
for 2008 :
161310 €
5
x 10
2.2
2.1
2
Gain(€)
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
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Forecasting
To sum up we could say Forecasting is the process of
predicting a future event. It is the process of estimation
in unknown situations, and as a prediction, it is not
100% reliable.
In conclusion,in 2008, attending to the forecasting,
Dulces Conchín will keep on increasing the sales, even
when it is known that forecasting gives lower than real
values.
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E-COMMERCE AND US
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BENEFITS:
•
IMPROVED, LOVER COST INFORMATION
•
AVAILABLE 24/7, VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD
•
AVAILABILITY EXPANDS MARKETS (FOR BUYES AND SELLERS)
•
DECREASES THE COST OF PAPER-BASED INFORMATION
•
FAST DELIVERY OF DIGITIZED PRODUCTS
•
INCREASED FLEXIBILITY OF LOCATION
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LIMITATIONS :



PEOPLE WHO USUALLY BUY IN A BAKERY DON’T NEED TODO IT
ELECTRONICALLY
A BAKERY IS A BUSINESS IN WHICH TRUST AND HABITS ARE
VERY IMPORTANT, AND THAT ARE NOT CHARACTERISTICS OF ECOMMERCE
LACK OF SYSTEM SECURITY, RELIABILITY AND STANDARDS
INTEGRATING E-COMMERCE SOFTWARE WITH EXISTING
SOFTWARE IS STILL A CHALLENGE
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SUMMARY:
WE ARE NOT THE BEST EXAMPLE TO TAKE ALL THE BENEFITS OF
E-COMMERCE BUT....
•
IT IMPROVES THE QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF OUR SALES (I.E.
WALL DRUG STORE IN U.S.A.)
•
MAKES OUR BRAND MORE KNOWN WORLDWIDE („IF YOUR
BRAND IS NOT ON THE INTERNET IT DOESN`T EXIST”)
•
•
WE CAN SELL ADDITIONAL ACCESORIES TO MAKE EXTRA MONEY
AND MAKE OUR BRAND MORE RECOGNIZED (CUPS, FUNNY TSHIRTS WITH OUR BRAND NAME ON THEM)
CONCLUSION: WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND THE USE OF ECOMMERCE IN EVERY BUSINESS WHICH COULD AFFORD IT.
DULCES CONCHIN
THANK YOU FOR
YOUR
ATTENDANCE!!!!
ANY QUESTION?