Transcript EMF-22 Kick-off meeting Programme of work 2005-2007

EMF-22 Kick-off meeting
Programme of work 2005-2007
Bruxelles, Nov. 10-12, 2004
Richard Loulou
(representing ETSAP)
Plan
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Brief summary of k-o meeting
New important issues
Proposed work plan for ETSAP
Benefits to ETSAP and EMF
Recommendation
I. Meeting Summary
• Title: “Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilization and in
Transition”
• Participants: 20-30 teams. Most major global models
represented: AIM, MESSAGE, SGM, MERGE, MINICAM,
IMAGE, GEMINI, TIMES, ABARE, IPAC, GRAPE, +
specialized groups (climate, land-use, etc.)
• Time frame: 2005, 2006, part of 2007
• Issues:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Stabilization targets (concent, forcing, temperatures ?)
Baseline Assumptions
Policy Simulation Options (Specific Policies v. Stabilization Targets)
Uncertainty and Hedging
Burden Sharing, dates of entry
Land-uses (with climate feedbacks)
Black Carbon and Organic Carbon forcings
HIGHEST
EMF-22 Priorities
Stabilization
Transition
Uncertainty
Black Carbon
Land Use
Non-CO2
Baselines
Technology
Climate Impacts
Trade
Climate
Chemistry
LOWEST
The five sessions
• Session 1: Long run stabilization scenarios
(IMAGE, IIASA, Tol, TIMES, MERGE,
Schlesinger on Climate sensitivity)
• Session 2: Transition Scenarios (J.Reilly
on non-CO2 gases, Gary Yohe on
Hedging)
• Session 3: Black Carbon, Organic Carbon
as “new” forcing substances (aerosols)
• Session 4: Land Use modeling
• Session 5: Design of EMF-22 studies
EMF-22 Workgroups
•
•
•
•
Black Carbon WG (inventories, forcing)
Land-Use WG (impacts and feedbacks)
Climate WG (refine climate models)
Hedging WG: achieve long term
temperature stabilization target with
assumptions :
– Medium term climate uncertainty,
– Growth rates,
– Participation of regions
II. Key Issues
a)Non CO2 GH G’s
• EMF-21 was devoted to developing
Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MAC’s)
for methane, non-energy CO2, N2O)
• These MAC’s are available to EMF
participants. They may be incorporated
into TIMES with some careful modeling.
Francisco de la Chesnaye (US EPA)
agreed to provide all data and some
technical help.
b) Uncertainty and Hedging
• The most uncertain parameter of climate
models is the so-called Climate Sensitivity
DeltaT = A * Delta F
(at equilibrium)
• It is customary to define climate sensitivity
as the equilibrium temperature change
due to a doubling in radiative forcing
CDF of climate sensitivity
1.2
Cumulative Probability
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-0.2
DeltaT (2x) -- Degrees Celsius
9
10
11
12
Hedging
• Two alternative temperature targets: 2.5oC
and 3.5oC
• Two growth rates, each 50% probability,
resolution in 2050
• Climate sensitivity uncertain until 2040 (3
or 5 discrete values) resolution in 2050
• Participation of regions: TBA
Event tree (for stoch. TIMES)
HG, Low sensit
HG, Med sensit
HG, High sensit
LG, Low sensit
LG, Med sensit
LG, High sensit
2000 10
20
30
40
50
60
80
2100
c) Black Carbon / Organic Carbon
• Both are carbon particulates from incomplete
combustion of fossil fuels (Coal, Biomass, Diesel)
• BC from coal and diesel combustion has positive
forcing
• OC from open fires of biomass has negative
forcing
• Net forcing from BC/OC seems to be significant,
positive, and uncertain
• Life cycle for both BC/OC is very short (weeks, but
technologies producing BC have longer lives !)
III. Possible TIMES Workplan
2005
TCH database
2006
TCH database
2007
--
MAC’s oth gases
Climate I
Trade I
EMF RUNS
MAC’s oth gases
Climate II
Trade II
EMF RUNS
---EMF RUNS
Dissemination
Dissemination
Stochastics Stochastics
-Damping Costs
Dissemination
---
--
Land Use ?
--
--
BC / OC ?
--
IV. Benefits to ETSAP and to EMF
• Full cooperation from EMF on Other
gases, latest knowledge on climate, etc.
• Well-known showcase for ETSAP work,
special publications, EMF website
• Influencing EMF methodologies
• Reinforce collaborations with IIASA, LBNL,
other B-U modelers
• Closer ties with TD modelers, with
possible benefits for linking TIMES to
macroeconomics.
V. General Recommendation
• Participate in EMF-22 for full duration
(2004-2007)
• Do as much as reasonably possible, within
budgetary constraints:
– Priority 1 (2004-2005): Technologies, Other
Gases, Climate Modules 1 and 2
– Priority 2 (2005-2006): Stochastic
Programming, Hedging Strategies, Damping
Costs
– Priority 3: Land-use, Black and Organic
Carbon emissions