Transcript Slide 1

Lamar C.I.S.D.
Demographic Update
July 17, 2015
Population and Survey Analysts
303 Anderson Street, College Station, TX 77840
www.pasademographics.com
Recent Clients (2007-2008)
Allen I.S.D.
Anahuac I.S.D.
Angleton I.S.D.
Bryan I.S.D.
Conroe I.S.D.
Crosby I.S.D.
Dallas I.S.D.
Dayton I.S.D.
DeSoto I.S.D.
Duncanville I.S.D.
Elgin I.S.D.
Frisco I.S.D.
Galveston I.S.D.
Goose Creek C.I.S.D.
Hays C.I.S.D.
Humble I.S.D.
Katy I.S.D.
Klein I.S.D.
Lake Travis I.S.D.
Leander I.S.D.
Lewisville I.S.D.
Lovejoy I.S.D.
Manor I.S.D.
Mansfield I.S.D.
Midway I.S.D.
Montgomery I.S.D.
Northwest I.S.D.
Richardson I.S.D.
Spring I.S.D.
Spring Hill I.S.D.
Tyler I.S.D.
Waller I.S.D.
White House I.S.D.
Population & Survey Analysts
Firm Overview
Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D.
Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends (Leading Indicators)
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household per Subdivision
Current Student Population Characteristics
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Section A:
Assess Current Student Population
• Generate ArcGIS Map of the District
• Geo-Code Every Student
• Analyze Student Population Characteristics by
Planning Unit (ethnicity, econ. disadvantaged)
• Analyze Recent Changes in Student Population
by Planning Unit (Regeneration, etc.)
Section B:
Project Future Student Enrollment
• Prepare Projections of New Housing per Year
per Subdivision
• Calculate the Ratio of Students per Household
for each Subdivision
• Generate Projections of Student Population
by Planning Unit for Ten Year Projection Period
Section C:
Long Range Planning
• Relate Student Projections to Current Facility
Capacities
• Develop Long-Range Plan for the Siting and
Timing of New Facilities
• Options for New Attendance Zones
• Real-Time Planning with Committees
• Prepare Comprehensive Report and Present
Findings to School Board
Population & Survey Analysts
Firm Overview
Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D.
Lamar C.I.S.D. Student Trends
Employment Trends (Leading Indicators)
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household per Subdivision
Current Student Population Characteristics
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Red Maps
Percentage Growth Based on Total Enrollment: 2006-07
All Districts Larger that 10,000 Students
Rank
District Name
1
FRISCO ISD
2
NORTHWEST ISD
3
EAGLE MT-SAGINAW ISD
4
HAYS CISD
5
LEANDER ISD
6
SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-U CITY ISD
7
ALVIN ISD
8
WYLIE ISD
9
COMAL ISD
10
KATY ISD
11
MANSFIELD ISD
12
DENTON ISD
13
LAMAR CISD
14
CROWLEY ISD
15
KELLER ISD
Total
Enrollm ent
Fall 2007
Total
Enrollm ent
Fall 2006
% Chg. Fall
2006 to Fall
2007
27,418
11,898
14,165
13,047
26,551
10,358
15,329
10,743
15,151
54,402
29,696
20,892
21,936
14,969
29,458
23,777
10,388
12,655
11,907
24,333
9,496
14,254
9,997
14,226
51,201
28,015
19,722
20,708
14,175
27,905
15.3%
14.5%
11.9%
9.6%
9.1%
9.1%
7.5%
7.5%
6.5%
6.3%
6.0%
5.9%
5.9%
5.6%
5.6%
Econ Disadv. Map
Demographic Characteristics of
Surrounding Districts
District
Name
Total
Enrollment
2007-08
Total
Enrollment Square
2006-07
Miles
2007-08 %
Econ. Disadv.
2007-08 Total
Econ. Disadv.
Lamar CISD
21,936
20,708
345.3
42.91%
9,412
Angleton ISD
6,432
6,464
435.1
47.85%
3,078
Fort Bend ISD
67,992
66,975
169.8
30.53%
20,757
Katy ISD
54,402
50,567
173.3
25.01%
13,604
Kendleton ISD
98
110
39.2
86.73%
85
Needville ISD
2,602
2,620
200.8
26.83%
698
Royal ISD
1,896
1,904
160.4
74.74%
1,417
Sealy ISD
2,598
2,601
205.8
48.11%
1,250
TAKS map
KN vs. Births chart
Historical
Growth
Trends
% Chg
Grade Oct 2005 Oct 2006 05-06 -- Oct 2007
06-07
177
EE
175
-1%
205
624
PK
646
4%
747
1613
KG
1633
1%
1724
1709
1
1818
6%
1925
1540
2
1697
10%
1807
1515
3
1547
2%
1702
1435
4
1618
13%
1611
1400
5
1498
7%
1675
1370
6
1428
4%
1564
1442
7
1431
-1%
1559
1402
8
1518
8%
1496
1668
9
1749
5%
1814
1384
10
1395
1%
1474
11
1232
1318
7%
1314
12
1152
1237
7%
1319
19,663 20,708
5%
21,936
% Chg
06-07 -07-08
17%
16%
6%
6%
6%
10%
0%
12%
10%
9%
-1%
4%
6%
0%
7%
6%
Comparison of KN and 5th Grade by Attendance Zone
Attendance Zone
Austin
Beasley
Bowie
Campbell
Dickinson
Frost
Huggins
Hutchison
Jackson
Long
Meyer
Pink
Ray
Seguin
Smith
Travis
Velasquez
Williams
1st
99
57
81
189
130
177
102
103
71
91
143
90
117
63
114
114
86
68
Green = Growth
5th
105
59
70
143
130
170
99
103
56
58
115
63
80
49
101
106
81
83
Difference % Difference
-6
-2
11
46
0
7
3
0
15
33
28
27
37
14
13
8
5
-15
-6%
-3%
16%
32%
0%
4%
3%
0%
27%
57%
24%
43%
46%
29%
13%
8%
6%
-18%
Yellow = Decline
Census Maps
0-4
Private School Analysis
School
Grades
Calvary Epsicopal School
PK-12
Cam bridge Montessori School
PK-2
Christ Church School
PK-K
Dar Ul Arqam School
PK-8
Faith Lutheran School
PK-8
Fort Bend Baptist Academ y
PK-12
Fort Bend Montessori School
PK-12
Grand Parkw ay Christian Academ y PK-6
Holy Rosary School
PK-8
Honor Roll School
PK-8
Houston Learning Academ y
9 - 12
Living Water Christian School
PK-6
Montessori-Greatw ood School
18m o.-K
Riverbend Montessori School
PK-5
Shady Oak Christian School
PK - 3rd
St. Laurence Catholic School
PK-8
Sugar Creek Montessori School
PK-3
Sugar Grove Christian School
PK-6
Sugar Mill Montessori School
K
TOTAL
Overall percentage of LCISD
residents in private schools:
Current
Enrollm ent
Estim ated
Students
from LCISD
306
162
200
230
162
900
102
113
214
600
45
67
131
110
140
740
215
255
4
4,696
77
0
60
5
15
225
2
6
193
30
5
50
118
5
119
37
13
38
0
921
0
Enrollm e Expected Students
nt in 5
from LCISD in 5
years
years
306
180
230
250
200
1,200
125
145
240
600
70
100
150
125
155
740
230
290
15
5,351
77
0
69
5
26
300
2
7
216
30
10
75
135
6
132
37
14
43
0
1,107
3%
Population & Survey Analysts
Firm Overview
Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D.
Lamar C.I.S.D. Student Trends
Employment Trends (Leading Indicators)
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Current Student Population
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Annual Employment Trends
January
2007
January
2008
Percent
Change
958,554
4.7
983,269
4.5
2.58%
14,349
4.1
14,536
4.4
1.30%
1,818,560
4.6
1,845,624
4.5
1.49%
235,449
4.4
241,541
4.3
2.59%
City of Houston
Employment
Unemployment Rate
City of Rosenberg
Employment
Unemployment Rate
Harris County
Employment
Unemployment Rate
Fort Bend County
Employment
Unemployment Rate
Annual Employment Trends
July
2007
January
2008
Percent
Change
970,879
4.6
983,269
4.5
1.28%
14,534
4.3
14,536
4.4
0.01%
1,841,942
4.6
1,845,624
4.5
0.20%
238,476
4.4
241,541
4.3
1.29%
City of Houston
Employment
Unemployment Rate
City of Rosenberg
Employment
Unemployment Rate
Harris County
Employment
Unemployment Rate
Fort Bend County
Employment
Unemployment Rate
Shift-Share Analysis of Employment Trends
INDUSTRY
Agriculture, forestry, fishing,
hunting, mining
Construction
M anufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation, warehousing,
utilities
Information
Finance, insurance, real estate,
rental, leasing
Professional, scientific,
management, admin., waste
management
Educational services, health care,
social assistance
Arts, entertainment, recreation,
accommodation, food services
Other services
Government
TOTAL EM PLOYM ENT
Abs Change Pct. Change
2006-12
2006-12
2,343
0.74
1,357
2,060
-117
283
0.26
0.38
-0.08
0.07
77
0.05
-21
-0.04
644
0.23
2,101
0.38
4,714
0.46
232
0.11
501
585
0.24
0.32
14,761
0.32
Population & Survey Analysts
Firm Overview
Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D.
Lamar C.I.S.D. Student Trends
Employment Trends (Leading Indicators)
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
per Subdivision
Current Student Population Characteristics
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Municipalities Map
New Housing Maps
New Housing Maps
New Housing Maps
New Housing Maps
Most Active Developments
Planning
Unit
5C
6
6
5A
20D
44B
44B
5B
43B
6
44B
2B
11C
5E
2B
2B
Subdivision
Lakes of Bella Terra
Lakemont
Long Meadow Farms (also in PU 5E)
Canyon Gate at Westheimer Lakes
Del Webb - Sun City development
Summer Lakes
Bonbrook Plantation
Sendero
Sunrise Meadows
Parkway Lakes
Walnut Creek
Firethorne
River's Edge
Long Meadow Farms (also in PU 6)
Tamarron Lakes
Cross Creek
New Housing Occupancies
2008-12 2013-17 2008-17
710
1,300
440
940
335
380
394
154
563
212
274
119
240
332
130
25
970
71
590
49
635
583
446
580
168
480
386
480
338
210
405
510
1,680
1,371
1,030
989
970
963
840
734
731
692
660
599
578
542
535
535
Projected
New Housing
Occupancies:
2008 – 2017
Year:
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2008-2012
2013-2017
2008-2017
Single
Multi
Family Family Grand
Housing Housing Total
1,807
2,159
2,590
3,147
3,741
4,143
4,455
4,524
4,732
4,390
13,444
22,244
35,688
275
100
210
370
530
535
340
240
180
90
2,082
2,259
2,800
3,517
4,271
4,678
4,795
4,764
4,912
4,480
1,485 14,929
1,385 23,629
2,870 38,558
Population & Survey Analysts
Firm Overview
Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D.
Lamar C.I.S.D. Student Trends
Employment Trends (Leading Indicators)
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
per Subdivision
Current Student Population Characteristics
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Highest Ratios of Students per Household
Planning
Unit
45A
21
39A
46B
35A
34B
39B
41A
2A
5F
5F
39B
39B
Development
Canyon Gate at the Brazos (Brazos Trace)
downtown Richmond
Brazos Place MHP
Tara Colony
Allendale Manor
Parrot Park MHP
Seabourne Place MHP
Cottonwood
Pecan Hill
Texana Plantation
Lakes of Mission Grove
Rosenberg Farms
Seabourne Meadows
Ratio
1.40
1.40
1.33
1.28
1.23
1.18
1.18
1.11
1.11
1.09
1.00
1.00
1.00
Lowest Ratios of Students per Household
Planning
Unit
5E
45A
47B
11C
5D
38
44B
Development
Long Meadow Farms (Pecan Meadows)
Soverign Shores
Greatwood (Green)
River's Edge (River's Trace)
Richland Park
Walenta Addition
Rivers Run at the Brazos
Ratio
0.07
0.07
0.13
0.13
0.18
0.18
0.19
Highest Ratios of Students per
Occupied Apartment Unit
Planning
Unit
12A
12A
24E
12A
33B
26
Apartment Complex
Grand Villa
Brazos Bend Villa
Falcon Pointe
Rocky Falls
Parkside Place
Lamar Park
Ratio
1.13
1.03
0.85
0.84
0.81
0.69
Lowest Ratios of Students per
Occupied Apartment Unit
Planning
Unit
22
28A
20A
6
40A
20C
Apartment Complex
Richmond House
Brazos Ranch
Villas at Riverpark West
Verde Lakemont
Carriage Glen
Country Club Place
Ratio
0.09
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.13
0.13
Population & Survey Analysts
Firm Overview
Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D.
Lamar I.S.D. Student Trends
Employment Trends (Leading Indicators)
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household per Subdivision
Current Student Population
Characteristics
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Aggregation maps by PU
Aggregation maps by High School Zone
Gains & Losses in Student Population
The majority of the losses this past year are
due to the aging out of students, but also
changed perceptions in a few
neighborhoods and other factors:
Primary PU’s to receive loss are in inner-city
Rosenberg – including subdivisions south of Hwy
59 in 24D, 24F, 31, 32B (by Ray/Travis), and 36B and
37 (both west of Hwy 36);
In and near the Tara subdivision north of FM 762;
Finally, west of FM 723 in PU’s 4 (where Bella Vista
and Foster Crossing subdivisions are located) and
in 8A, which is becoming more industrial.
Gains & Losses in Student Population
Key new subdivisions caused tremendous
increases in students this past year:
Lakemont, Lost Creek, and Parkway Lakes in PU 6
(337 added students);
Summer Lakes, River’s Run, Bonbrook and
scattered other new homes in PU 44B (207 added
students);
Westheimer Lakes in PU 5A (131 added students);
River’s Edge in PU 11C (80 new students);
Long Meadow Farms in PU 5E (69 new students);
The last developing portion of Greatwood (The
Forest) in PU 47A (68 added students).
Gains & Losses in Student Population
In a separate analysis, the “free and reduced lunch” program
students were declining in several locations:
West of Hwy 36 and south of Spur 529 there were
substantial losses in PU’s 38 & 39B, as well as 8A;
In the upside-down “U” of the river by Richmond State
School, there were substantial losses in PU’s 12A, 13C,
13B, 10 B (Riverwood Village), and also 19 (south of Hwy
90A) and 17B just east of FM 359 and north of Hwy 90A;
Finally, to the north of the river and west of FM 723, PU’s
2A, 2B, 3 and 4 have all lost student population, including
the areas of Weston Lakes and the western portion of the
Huggins Elementary zone.
Gains & Losses in Student Population
There were gains in “free and reduced
lunch” program students, mainly in new
entry-level subdivisions & apartments:
Mainly south of HWY 59 in PU’s 41A, 41C, 43A, 43B,
44B, and 44E;
In Lost Creek and Parkway Lakes, and to some extent,
the Lakemont subdivisions;
In Westheimer Lakes;
In inner-city Rosenberg locations, including apartment
locations and “downtown” Rosenberg, east of FM 723;
Some losses in the City of Richmond in the newer
River Park West and Canyon Gate subdivisions.
Population & Survey Analysts
Firm Overview
Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D.
Lamar C.I.S.D. Student Trends
Employment Trends (Leading Indicators)
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household per Subdivision
Current Student Population Characteristics
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Most-Likely Scenario:
Assumptions
Interest rates do not increase at all in the next two
to three years
Continued availability of mortgages existing, older
housing and of new homes (based on first quarter
2008 rates)
Iraq and other global concerns do not accelerate
A stable percent of immigrants and of in-migrants
entering Texas
Consumer and business spending remains at no
less than 5% reduction relative to last year
Added
Students
Under
Most-Likely
Scenario of
Growth
EE+PK
KN
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
Total
Added
Added
Students: Students:
2008-12
2013-17
265
371
460
643
529
736
470
682
458
597
546
582
431
570
479
550
524
524
553
532
433
733
390
476
281
482
181
6,000
484
7,963
Added
Students
Under Low
Scenario of
Growth
EE+PK
KN
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
Total
Added
Added
Students: Students:
2008-12
2013-17
213
295
369
505
426
582
375
538
367
464
456
451
343
441
393
425
437
400
467
409
340
587
312
365
215
380
119
387
4,832
6,231
Added
Students
Under High
Scenario of
Growth
EE+PK
KN
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
Total
Added
Added
Students: Students:
2008-12
2013-17
356
537
619
933
706
1,064
637
988
616
879
704
861
585
843
628
814
675
787
702
794
595
1,042
526
712
397
695
288
689
8,035
11,637
Projected Enrollment (EE-12th Grade)
Under
Most-Likely Scenario of Growth
Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot Date
2008
Projected
Enrollment
Percent
Increase
Actual
Increase
22,862
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
23,927 25,114 26,473 27,955 29,529 31,091 32,615 34,234 35,918
4.13
4.66
4.96
5.41
5.60
5.63
5.29
4.90
4.96
4.92
907
1066
1186
1359
1482
1574
1562
1524
1619
1684
Population & Survey Analysts
Firm Overview
Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D.
Lamar C.I.S.D. Student Trends
Employment Trends (Leading Indicators)
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household per Subdivision
Current Student Population Characteristics
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Elementary LRP Maps
Middle School LRP Maps
High School LRP Maps