Transcript Slide 1

Findings from two
European-led research
programmes
Part 1: Getting the policies right for
economic transformation in Africa
David Henley
Tracking Development / Leiden University
Johns Hopkins – SAIS, Washington DC,
12 March 2012
www.institutions-africa.org
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1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
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1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$), 1960-2009
1400
Southeast Asia
1200
Sub-Saharan Africa
2
1800
Overview
1600
1000
800
600
400
200
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Mass poverty reduction in Southeast Asia, 1963-2008
proportion of population falling under national poverty lines
Thailand
1963: 57 per cent
1981: 24 per cent
Malaysia
1970: 49 per cent
1984: 18 per cent
Indonesia
1970: 60 per cent
1984: 22 per cent
Vietnam
1993: 58 per cent
2008: 14 per cent
Sources: Jonathan Rigg, Southeast Asia: the human landscape of modernization and development (London:
Routledge, 2003), p. 99; Harold Crouch, Government and society in Malaysia (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1996),
p. 189; BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Bappenas, and UNDP, National human development report 2004: the economics of
democracy (Jakarta, 2004), p. 13; www.worldbank.org.vn
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Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
before 1960: colonial rule; agrarian economies with primary product exports
since 1960: corruption and weak institutions
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The challenge of economic transformation
Nigeria and Indonesia
oil giants
Uganda and Cambodia
post-conflict countries
Tanzania and Vietnam
post-socialist countries
Kenya and Malaysia
politically stable open economies
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Indonesia and Nigeria: GDP per capita (constant 2000 USD), 1960-2006
5
1200
Indonesia
1000
Nigeria
800
600
400
Nigeria: no sustained growth
200
Indonesia: sustained growth begins 1967
0
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Three preconditions for sustained growth
with mass poverty reduction
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in Malaysia since 1958, Indonesia since 1967,
Vietnam since 1986, and Cambodia since 1999 (?)
1)
Macroeconomic stability
low inflation, little currency overvaluation
2)
Economic freedom
for farmers and entrepreneurs
3)
Pro-poor public spending
on agriculture, public services, and rural infrastructure
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Peninsular Malaysia: rice production (thousand tonnes unhusked), 1950-1990
2,000
1,800
1,600
total
1,400
off season (irrigated)
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1950*
1955*
1960*
1965*
* single agricultural year
1970*
1975**
1980**
1985**
1990*
** five-year moving average
Source: P.P. Courtenay, The rice sector of peninsular Malaysia; A rural paradox (Sydney: Allen and Unwin, 1995), p. 154
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Vietnam: rice production (thousand tonnes unhusked), 1975-2000
8
35000
30000
25000
rainy season
spring
summer
total
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Sources: General Statistical Office, 2000, Statistical data of Vietnam; Agriculture, forestry and fishery 1975-2000
([Hanoi:] Statistical Publishing House), p. 190; Kenneth B. Young, Eric J. Wailes, Gail L. Cramer, and Nguyen Tri
Khiem, 2002, Vietnam's rice economy: developments and prospects (Fayetteville: Arkansas Agricultural Experiment
Station [Research Report 968]), p.9
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Indonesia
'The agricultural sector [...] is the central arena in which all efforts are concentrated and results
expected. [...] Agricultural development increases the earnings of the majority of the Indonesian
people and thus increases national income. [...] The development of the agricultural sector is
expected to open up growth possibilities in other sectors so that an opportunity will be created to
combat the backwardness of the Indonesian economy on many fronts.'
First Five-Year Development Plan, 1969-74
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The Alliance Government [has] decided to give top
priority to the task of improving the lot of the rural
inhabitants. [...] The aim [...] will be to provide a sound
economic foundation for peasant agriculture, to ensure
that the man on the land receives the full reward for his
work [...]. In order that the aim may be achieved in the
shortest possible time, it is the intention of the
Government to marshall all available resources, and to
deploy them with such determination and energy as were
used to free the country from the menace of Communist
terrorism.
Tun Abdul Razak, 1959
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Communism as a stimulus for
developmentalism
•
Malayan Emergency 1948-1960
•
Indonesian Communist Party contends
strongly for power by (mostly) nonviolent
means, 1955-1965
•
Thailand: armed communist insurgency,
1959-1983
•
Vietnam: Doi Moi (renovation)
heralds market reforms, 1986
policy
Two types of successful developmental
state
1. the counter-revolutionary state
2. the liberalizing post-revolutionary state
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My life among the farmers of Kemusuk during the difficult times of
the nineteen-twenties had aroused in me a distinct feeling of 12
sympathy for them. This feeling was nourished not only by my
constant contacts with the farmers, but also by the knowledge and
experience that I'd gained from the guidance of Pak
Prawirowiharjo, the agricultural officer. I often went with my uncle
on his inspection rounds and learned from him not only about the
theory of agriculture but also about the practical aspects of
farming.
Suharto (1921-2008), president of Indonesia 1967-1998
Soeharto, My thoughts, words and deeds: an autobiography as
told to G. Dwipayana and Ramadhan K.H. (1991), p. 10
As the stocky Olusegun grew up, his parents became increasingly
concerned about his future. His father wanted his children to escape
the drudgery that was peasant farming in Africa. Many Egbas had long
realized the increasing relevance of Western education [...]. With it, the
toil was less, the financial rewards were more, and opportunities were
at the beck and call [...] On their way home from the farm one day,
Obasanjo said to his son: "Olu, is it this toilsome farming you would
want to continue with in life?" [...] "Would you like to learn a trade?" [...]
"Yes." "What trade?" "Motor mechanic." [...] "You would not want to go
to school?," his father asked.
Olusegun Obasanjo (1937-), president of Nigeria 1976-1979 and 19992007
Onukaba Adinoyi Ojo, In the eyes of time: a biography of Olusegun
Obasanjo (1997), pp. 35-36
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Contrasting concepts of development
Southeast Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
incremental (but potentially rapid)
transformative
poor people become richer
poor countries acquire things rich ones
have (technologies, industries, goods,
rights, institutions)
growth
modernization
productivity
education
inclusive
elitist
oriented toward undesired starting point
of development: mass poverty
oriented toward desired end point of
development: industrial or postindustrial modernity
concerned with establishing immediate
priorities
concerned with making comprehensive
plans
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Nairobi in 1963
HISTORICAL ORIGINS OF IDEOLOGICAL
DIVERGENCE?
Dualistic development in Africa
• sharp urban-rural antithesis
• colonial experience involves sharp break with the
past
• experience of economic modernity tied up with
European domination and cultural
transformation (education, religion, language)
• elites alienated from masses
Nairobi in 1900
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What is to be done?
1. Draw the attention of African decision-makers to the real
reasons for Asian developmental success
2. Recognize and support developmentalist tendencies and
potentials in Africa according to developing country
models, not developed country models
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Corruption perceptions index, Southeast Asian and other countries, 2010 and 1980-1985
Denmark
New Zealand
Singapore
Finland
Sweden
Canada
Netherlands
Australia
Switzerland
Norway
Ireland
Austria
Germany
Japan
United Kingdom
Chile
Belgium
United States
France
Israel
Spain
Portugal
Taiwan
Brunei
South Korea
Poland
Hungary
Jordan
Czech Republic
South Africa
2010
9,3
9,3
9,3
9,2
9,2
8,9
8,8
8,7
8,7
8,6
8
7,9
7,9
7,8
7,6
7,2
7,1
7,1
6,8
6,1
6,1
6
5,8
5,5
5,4
5,3
4,7
4,7
4,6
4,5
1980-1985
8
8,4
8,4
8,1
8
8,4
8,4
8,4
8,4
8,4
8,3
7,4
8,1
7,8
8
6,5
8,3
8,4
8,4
7,3
6,8
4,5
6
3,9
3,6
1,6
5,3
5,1
7,4
Malaysia
Turkey
Italy
Brazil
China
Colombia
Greece
Thailand
India
Egypt
Mexico
Argentina
Bolivia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Ecuador
Timor-Leste
Uganda
Bangladesh
Nigeria
Philippines
Pakistan
Cameroon
Kenya
Cambodia
Laos
Russia
Venezuela
Myanmar
2010
4,4
4,4
3,9
3,7
3,5
3,5
3,5
3,5
3,3
3,1
3,1
2,9
2,8
2,8
2,7
2,5
2,5
2,5
2,4
2,4
2,4
2,3
2,2
2,1
2,1
2,1
2,1
2
1,4
1980-1985
6,3
4,1
4,9
4,7
5,1
3,3
4,2
2,4
3,7
1,1
1,9
4,9
0,7
0,2
4,5
0,7
0,8
1
1
1,5
4,6
3,3
5,1
3,2
Sources - 2010: Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2010; 1980-85: Internet Center for Corruption Research
(University of Passau), based on surveys by Business International (1980) and the Political Risk Service, East Syracuse, NY (1982,
1984, 1985), adjusted for comparability with the Transparency International CPI
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Africa
power and
politics
Developmental regimes in Africa brings together
Tracking Development, led by the ASC & KITLV interinstitutes of Leiden University, Netherlands and Africa
Power and Politics, led by the Overseas Development
Institute, London. The project is supported by the
Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs
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