Emerging Technologies, Regional Scorecards: e-Business in Asia

Dr. Madanmohan Rao Consultant, 4Cplus; Editor, INOMY Bangalore, INDIA [email protected]

, [email protected]

The Eight Cs of the Digital Economy

 Connectivity  Content  Community  Commerce  Capacity  Culture  Cooperation  Capital

Generations of Internet Technologies

 Generation I: Mainframe (one machine, many users)  Generation II: Workstations, PCs (one machine, one user)  Generation III: Consumer electronics, embedded devices (many machines, one user)

Consumer Devices

 PDAs, laptops, cellphones, headsets, cordless phones, MP3 players, joysticks, fingerprint scanners, medical instruments, point of sale (POS) scanners, DVDs, pen computers, wireless modems, digital still cameras, Webcams, e books, TV set-top boxes, fridges, microwave ovens….

Applications

         Sharing of home videos via the Net Monitoring alarm systems in offices Instrumentation for industrial applications Monitoring of goods in supply chains Inventory updates for mobile sales forces Support information for field technicians Wireless Internet access in hotel rooms Headsets for museum visitors Automated airport check-in by travelers (not any more!!)

Embedded devices

 On-board power-sensitive design techniques  Space optimization  Programmable logic devices  High-resolution displays  System on chip (SoC) circuitry, security chips  Upstream/downstream migration to ‘soft silicon’

Outlook for Asia

 Web-enabled devices, wireless networks  IT services, IT-enabled services  ICT research and development  Content + creative industries  Citizen empowerment  Access, development challenges

Regional Variations in m-Services

 US: e-mail, surfing, news, travel; comfort with credit cards; discomfort with location-based privacy. Professional use.

 Japan, Korea: entertainment (downloadable ring tones), email  Europe: banking, email; discomfort with credit card usage

Momentum/Inertia factors

      U.S: familiarity with Internet commerce => less satisfied with m-interface, more accepting of m-transactions Japan: focus on entertainment, less mindful of the Internet as a point of comparison. i-mode offers a more satisfying user experience than WAP.

French: satisfied with Minitel, skeptical about WAP Germany: strong identification with bank brands Swedes: more technically savvy Australia: affluent professional users (due to high handset costs)

Challenges

 Standards  Devices  Content  Commerce  Business models  User behaviour (usability, momentum)

Dimensions of Convergence

         Representation (bits) Protocols (TCP/IP, Web) Channels (phone, TV) User devices (TV, PC) Functionality (PC, cellphone) Applications (email) User behaviour (messaging, surfing) Policy (broadcast, print, telecom) Consumer data (demographics, location, transaction)

Dimension of divergence

       Location (car radio, clock radio) Channels (cable TV, satellite TV) User devices (cordless phone, cellphone) Entertainment modes (digital cameras, MP3 players) Size/specs (PCs, notebooks) Policy (IT, Internet) User behaviour (convenience, price)

Generations of Wireless Internet

1G 2G 2.5G

3G 4G Voice only GSM/TDMA GPRS, EDGE WCDMA 1979 1992 2001 2001, 2002 2010

The Market

 Wireless Internet economy: $25 billion by 2005  Wireless users: 600 million worldwide (Asia: 250 million)  Internet user base: 420 million

“Asia is beating Europe and North America in pure wireless markets, and will lead in the wireless Internet as well. The 3G world belongs to the Asian people.”

Emmanuel Sauquet, Nortel Networks

VoIP

 Managed networks: corporate class  Public Internet: consumer services  Carrier class: international/national networks

Softswitch, gateways, IP PBX, voice+data CRM

Asian Internet: 4 Episodes

 1960s – 1980: Computing infrastructure, Keiretsu, Chaebol, IIT/AIT/AIM/NCB  1980-1995: APNIC, early internetworks  1995-2000: Commercial Internet growth, deregulation  2001 onwards: Convergence, divergence

Scorecard 1: U.S.

 Core technologies  Fortune 500 companies, B2B hubs  Venture capital, stock markets  Technology media

Scorecard 2: Latin America

 Only two languages (Spanish, Portuguese)  U.S. and Spanish players  Regional trading blocs  Collective consciousness  Community access centres  Cultural products (music), sports (football)

Scorecard 3: Europe

 Economic integration  Linguistic diversity: challenge, opportunity  Interactive TV  Large markets (Germany, France, UK), sophisticated markets (Scandinavia)  Broadband  IT worker shortages

Scorecard 4: Africa & Middle East

 Infrastructure challenges  Regional pockets: South Africa; Kenya; Dubai, Tunisia, Egypt; Israel  Common languages  Cultural products (music)  Diaspora populations

Scorecard 5: Asia-Pacific

 Hardware, software powerhouse  Digital divide; regulations  Mobile Internet  Global diaspora (“digital glue”)  Major markets: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia  VoIP: China, India

Asian Powerhouses

 Appliances: Taiwan, Japan, South Korea  Creative content: Philippines  Networks: Japan, South Korea  Operators: Japan, South Korea, China  Services: Singapore  Software: India  Online Tourism: Thailand, Nepal

The Crystal Ball

 Bandwidth, satellite, fibre  XML  Branding  Digital radio  Digital divide

“The Asia-Pacific region will ramp up Internet-enabled wireless phones before the rest of the world and is poised to become the world's mobile powerhouse. By 2010, more than 50 percent of all mobile-phone users in the world will be in the Asia-Pacific region, up from 35 percent in 2000.”

ITU

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