Transcript AIT Strategic Goals - George Mason University

A computational theory, methodology and system
Actionable Intelligence:
Continuous Discovery of Evidence,
Hypotheses, and Arguments from
Masses of Data
Dr. G. Tecuci, Dr. D.A. Schum, Dr. M. Boicu, Dr. D. Marcu
Learning Agents Center
The Volgenau School of Engineering
George Mason University
Computational Theory
Likeliness of
Hypotheses
Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center,
George Mason University
What hypotheses
would explain
these
observations?
Explanatory
Hypotheses
What evidence
is entailed
by each
hypothesis?
What is the
evidence-based
likeliness of each
hypothesis?
Observations
Evidence in search
of hypotheses
New Evidence
Hypotheses in
search of evidence
Big
Data
Evidentiary testing
of hypotheses
deceptive
threat
ambush
preparation
traffic
disruption
road block
road repair
road work
not
road work
E1: Evidence of road
work at Al Batha
junction at 1:17am
traffic
deviation
Evidence in search
of hypotheses
What hypotheses
would explain this
observation?
Big
Data
Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center,
George Mason University
ambush
threat
Discovery of Hypotheses
Hypotheses in
search of evidence
Discovery of Evidence
Ambush threat at Al Batha
Assuming that this hypothesis
highway junction around 1:17am.
is true, what other things
&
should be observable?
ambush
preparation
&
&
deployment of
terrorists
route used
by U.S. forces
ambush
cover
Search for
evidence that the
Al Batha highway
junction is on a
route used by the
U.S. forces.
Search for
evidence that
there is ambush
cover near the Al
Batha highway
junction.
&
road
block
people
move
to cover
people descended
from vehicle
vehicle departed from
terrorist facility
Search for evidence
that people descended
at the Al Batha
highway junction from
a vehicle short before
1:17am.
Search for evidence that
the vehicle that drove the
people to the Al Batha
highway junction short
before 1:17am, departed
from a terrorist facility.
Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center,
George Mason University
good
location
Evidentiary testing
of hypotheses
Discovery of Arguments
strong belief
ambush threat
We have strong belief that there is an ambush
threat to the U.S. forces at the Al Batha junction.
&
strong belief
ambush preparation
very strong belief
good location
&
&
Inferential force
total belief
route used
How strong is our belief that
this
is true?
veryhypothesis
strong belief
ambush cover
strong belief
very strong belief
deployment of terrorists
road block
&
strong belief
people move
to cover
total belief
How strong is our belief in this link?very strong belief
people descended
very strong belief
from vehicle
Believability
total belief
very strong belief
is our belief
E2: AFC confirms route How strong
E3: brushes,
that trees,
this evidence
is true?
and ruins
strong belief
vehicle departed
from terrorist facility
very strong belief
very strong belief
very strong belief
E4: People get off
pickup truck
strong belief
E5: Pickup truck leaves
abandoned rice farm
Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center,
George Mason University
Relevance
Computational Theory
(Cyber) Insider Threat
Evidence in search
of hypotheses
Observation
of Actions
Hypotheses in
search of evidence
Evidentiary testing
of hypotheses
New Observable
Actions
Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center,
George Mason University
Possible
Likeliness of
Insider Missions Insider Missions
Computational Theory
Forensics
Evidence in search
of hypotheses
Observations
at the site of
incident
Likeliness of
causes
Hypotheses in
search of evidence
Evidentiary testing
of hypotheses
New potential
evidence
Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center,
George Mason University
Possible
causes
Computational Theory
Medicine
Evidence in search
of hypotheses
Patient’s
complaints
Likeliness of
Illnesses
Hypotheses in
search of evidence
New tests
Evidentiary testing
of hypotheses
Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center,
George Mason University
Possible
Illnesses
Computational Theory
Possible
charges or
complaints
Evidence in search
of hypotheses
Observations
during fact
investigation
Likeliness of
charges
Hypotheses in
search of evidence
Evidentiary testing
of hypotheses
New potential
evidence
Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center,
George Mason University
Law
Computational Theory
Possible
Hypotheses or
Explanations
Evidence in search
of hypotheses
Observations
of Events in
Nature
Likeliness of
New or Revised
Theories
Hypotheses in
search of evidence
New
Observable
Phenomena
Evidentiary testing
of hypotheses
Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center,
George Mason University
Natural
Sciences