Transcript Modeling Douglas-fir Growth & Yield in the PNW

Comparisons of DFSIM,
ORGANOIN and FVS
David Marshall
Olympia Forestry Sciences Laboratory
PNW Research Station
USDA Forest Service
Growth Model Users Group
August 10, 2005
Model Comparisons
Based on work done while testing
ORGANON version 8.
Model Comparisons
• Part 1 – “Out of the Box”
• Part 2 – Plot Comparisons
• Part 3 – Density Regimes
Model Comparisons
Part 1
“Out of the Box”
Model Comparisons – Part 1
• Will Focus on 4 Models
–
–
–
–
DFSIM
Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS)
ORGANON
TreeLab
• Does not suggest these are the best
– Represent the heart of the DF region
– DFSIM, FVS and ORGANON are widely used
– Available for free on the internet
Model Comparisons – Part 1
• DFSIM version 1.4
– Curtis and others 1986 (revised 1999)
– Stand Model (annual)
–
http://forsys.cfr.washington.edu/~dfsim/
• FVS-PN (RV 01.11.2005)
– US Forest Service, Forest Management Service Center
– Tree Model (10-year increment - default)
– http://www.fs.fed.us/fmsc/fvs/index.php
• ORGANON SMC version 7 and 8 (pre-release)
– Hann and others at Oregon State University (1988 - 2004)
– Tree Model (5-year increment)
– http://www.cof.orst.edu/cof/fr/research/organon/
• TreeLab
– Turnblom and students at the University of Washington (2001)
– Stand Model (annual)
–
http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.smc/treelab/Website/TreeLab_home.htm
Model Comparisons – Part 1
“Out of the Box”
• “Out of the Box” projections
• Models
–
–
–
–
•
•
•
•
DFSIM
TreeLab
ORGANON
FVS
Site Index 121 feet
Planted to about 450 trees per acre
Trees List at 14 years
Growth to 64 years
Model Comparisons – Part 1
“Out of the Box”
Trees Per Acre
500
DFSIM-70
400
TreeLab
300
ORG7-520
200
ORG8-520
100
FVS
0
0
20
40
60
80
Total Age (years)
Out Of The Box Projections
Basal Area (ft 2/acre)
• 14 - 64 years
• Site Index 121 feet
• Planted (450 tpa)
Out Of The Box Projections
500
DFSIM-70
400
TreeLab
300
ORG7-520
200
ORG8-520
100
FVS
0
0
20
40
60
Total Age (years)
80
Model Comparisons – Part 1
“Out of the Box”
ln(QMD-inches)
3.5
DFSIM
3
TreeLab
2.5
ORG7-520
2
ORG8-520
FVS
1.5
SDI
1
5
5.5
6
6.5
ln(TPA)
Out Of The Box Projections
Stand Density Index
• 14 - 64 years
• Site Index 121 feet
• Planted (450 tpa)
Out Of The Box Projections
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
DFSIM-70
TreeLab
ORG7-520
ORG8-520
FVS-PN
0
20
40
60
Total Age (years)
80
Model Comparisons – Part 1
“Out of the Box”
• DFSIM
– Default maximum RD = 70
– Curtis suggests higher (seems to like RD about 80)
Model Comparisons – Part 1
“Out of the Box”
• DFSIM
– Default maximum RD = 70
– Curtis suggests higher (RD about 80)
• ORGANON
– Default SDImax= 520
– Some evidence suggest lower (480)
Model Comparisons – Part 1
“Out of the Box”
• DFSIM
– Default maximum RD = 70
– Curtis suggests higher (RD about 80)
• ORGANON (version 7)
– Default SDImax= 520
– Some evidence suggest lower (480)
• FVS has extensive growth modifiers
– Default SDImax (maximum BA) = 950
– Growth multipliers for:
•
•
•
•
Basal area growth
Mortality
Height growth
Crown change
Model Comparisons – Part 1
FVS Adjustments
SDImax
Growth Multipliers
Projection at 54 years (4 cycles)
BAI
MORT
CR
TPA
BAPA
CR
950
1.0
1.0
1.0
242
431
0.56
800
1.0
1.0
1.0
202
370
0.56
950
0.7
1.0
1.0
305
394
0.56
950
1.0
1.1
1.0
230
404
0.56
950
1.0
1.0
2.0
283
410
0.34
650
0.7
0.8
2.0
254
276
0.34
Model Comparisons – Part 1
“Out of the Box”
• DFSIM
– Default maximum RD = 70
– Curtis suggests higher (RD about 80)
• ORGANON
– Default SDImax = 520
– Some evidence suggest lower (SDImax = 480)
• FVS has extensive growth modifiers
– Default SDImax (maximum BA) = 950 (lower to 650)
– Growth multipliers for:
•
•
•
•
Basal area growth (0.7x)
Mortality (1.1x)
Height growth (1.0x)
Crown change (2.0x)
Model Comparisons – Part 1
“Models Modified”
Modified DFSIM
Modified - ORGANON V7
500
400
300
DFSIM-70
200
DFSIM-100
100
Trees Per Acre
Trees Per Acre
500
0
400
300
ORG7-520
200
ORG7-480
100
0
0
20
40
60
80
0
Total Age (years)
40
60
80
Total Age (years)
Modified - FVS PN
Modified - ORGANON V8
500
400
300
FVS
200
FVS-mod
100
0
Trees Per Acre
500
Trees Per Acre
20
400
300
ORG8-520
200
ORG8-480
100
0
0
20
40
60
Total Age (years)
80
0
20
40
60
Total Age (years)
80
Model Comparisons – Part 1
“Models Modified”
Modified - ORGANON V7
300
250
200
DFSIM-70
150
DFSIM-100
100
50
0
0
20
40
60
Basal Area (ft 2/acre)
Basal Area (ft 2/acre)
Modified DFSIM
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
80
ORG7-520
ORG7-480
0
Total Age (years)
300
FVS
FVS-mod
200
100
0
60
Total Age (years)
80
Basal Area (ft 2/acre)
Basal Area (ft 2/acre)
400
40
60
80
Modified - ORGANON V8
500
20
40
Total Age (years)
Modified - FVS PN
0
20
300
250
200
ORG8-520
150
ORG8-480
100
50
0
0
20
40
60
Total Age (years)
80
Model Comparisons – Part 1
“Models Modified”
• Looked at only the default 10-year time step for FVS.
• Different time steps might have different properties
(TIMEINT keyword).
FVS Unmodified
Basal Area
(ft2/acre)
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
20
40
60
Total Stand Age
10-year time step (default)
5-year time step
80
Model Comparisons
Part 2
“Plot Comparisons”
Model Comparisons – Part 2
12 Stands
• 12 Stands (Plantations)
– 5 Oregon
– 4 Washington
– 3 British Columbia
• Initial Tree List
• Site Index Start of
Period
• 10-year net change
Model Comparisons – Part 2
12 Stands
Mean
Min.
Max.
SD
28.6
18
40
7.0
Site Index 128.5
96
158
19.5
TPA
331.5
192.0
566.0
103.9
SDI
233.7
85.5
322.5
76.7
CR
0.64
0.45
0.88
0.13
Total Age
Model Comparisons – Part 2
12 Stands
WARNING
Because of the small number of
plots, this should not be considered
a validation of the models.
Model Comparisons – Part 2
12 Stands
10-Year Change (Actual – Predicted)
Trees
Basal Area (net) Crown Ratio
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
(/acre)
(/acre)
(ft2/ac)
(ft2/ac)
DFSIM
19.8
41.5
-5.1
17.0
TreeLab
18.7
38.6
-3.2
18.1
ORGANON V7 SMC
-14.2
17.9
-4.5
ORGANON V8 SMC
-10.0
17.8
FVS PN
-13.3
FVS Modified PN
-2.4
- TPA = under predict mortality
Mean
SD
12.2
-0.04
0.05
-3.9
11.8
-0.05
0.05
20.2
-40.4
38.9
-0.14
0.06
19.9
-3.7
24.3
-0.07
0.06
- BA/AC = over predict net growth
Model Comparisons – Part 2
12 Stands
• Mortality
– DFSIM and TreeLab over predicted
– ORGANON and FVS under predicted
• Basal Area Growth
– All over predicted but …
– Heavily influenced by 3 youngest plots
• ORGANON tended to be the least variable
• FVS needed lots of tweaking
• Small Sample Size
Model Comparisons
Part 3
“Density Regimes”
Model Comparisons – Part 3
Density Management Projections
• Models
–
–
–
–
–
DFSIM
TreeLab
ORGANON (SDImax=480)
FVS-PN
FVS-PN modified
Model Comparisons – Part 3
Density Management Projections
• 3 Planting Densities
and PCT (220 tpa)
• Site Index = 121 feet
• Starting Age 14 years
• Project to 54 years
• Models
–
–
–
–
–
DFSIM
TreeLab
ORGANON (SDImax=480)
FVS-PN
FVS-PN modified
Stand
TPA
BA
QMD
SDI
A
310
16.3
3.1
47
B
452
24.5
3.2
71
C
689
53.8
3.8
145
Model Comparisons – Part 3
Density Management Projections
Projected to 54 years
Projected to 54 years
500
400
300
200
100
0
Basal Area
(ft2/acre)
Trees Per
Acre
500
400
300
200
100
0
A
B
C
B-PCT
C-PCT
A
DFSIM
TreeLab
ORGANON V7
ORGANON V8
FVS PN
FVS PN modified
Series1
Series2
Projected to 54 years
Total Stem Volume
(ft3/acre)
Quadratic Mean
DBH (inches)
20
15
10
5
0
C
B-PCT
B-PCT
Series3
Series4
Series5
Series6
Projected to 54 years
25
B
C
Density Regime
Density Regime
A
B
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
A
C-PCT
B
C
B-PCT
C-PCT
Density Regime
Density Regime
DFSIM
TreeLab
ORGANON V7
DFSIM
TreeLab
ORGANON V7
ORGANON V8
FVS PN
FVS PN modified
ORGANON V8
FVS PN
FVS PN modified
Model Comparisons – Part 3
Density Management Projections
Projected to 54 years
Projected to 54 years
20000
merchantable
Volume
(ft3/acre)
Quadratic Mean
DBH (inches)
25
20
15
10
5
15000
10000
5000
0
0
A
B
C
B-PCT
A
C-PCT
B
C
B-PCT
C-PCT
Density Regime
Density Regime
DFSIM
TreeLab
ORGANON V7
DFSIM
TreeLab
ORGANON V7
ORGANON V8
FVS PN
FVS PN modified
ORGANON V8
FVS PN
FVS PN modified
Decrease average tree size
with increasing growing stock
Increasing merchantable volume
with increasing growing stock
Thinning increased tree size
SMALL increase from thinning
in DFSIM and ORGANON V8
and small decrease in FVS
Model Comparisons – Part 3
Density Management Projections
SDI
SDI at 124 years
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
A
B
C
Density Regime
DFSIM
TreeLab
ORGANON V7
ORGANON V8
FVS PN
FVS PN modified
Model Comparisons – Part 3
Density Management Projections
Density Regime A (310 TPA)
SDI
700
600
DFSIM-70
500
TreeLab
400
ORG7-520
300
ORG8-520
200
FVS-PN
100
FVS-mod
How did they get there?
0
Density Regime C (689 TPA)
0
20
40
60
80
SDI
Total Age (years)
Density Regime B (452 TPA)
SDI
700
600
DFSIM-70
500
TreeLab
400
ORG7-520
300
ORG8-520
200
FVS-PN
100
FVS-mod
0
0
20
40
60
Total Age (years)
80
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
DFSIM-70
TreeLab
ORG-520
ORG8-520
FVS-PN
FVS-mod
0
20
40
60
Total Age (years)
80
Model Comparisons – Part 3
Density Management Projections
FVS PN modified
600
SDI
500
400
Regime A
300
Regime B
200
Regime C
FVS may require different
calibrations?
100
0
0
20
40
60
80
Total Age (years)
ORGANON Maximum Size Density
600
500
SDI
400
ORG7-520
300
ORG8-520
200
ORG8-000
100
0
0
20
40
60
Total Age (years)
80
ORGANON 8 may not
need maximum size-density
on (Monserud)
Model Comparisons – Part 3
Density Management Projections
Projected Age of Maximum MAI
400
Total Age
(years)
Total Stem Volume
3
(ft /acre)
Projected Maximum MAI
500
300
200
100
0
A
B
C
B-PCT
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
A
C-PCT
B
C
B-PCT
C-PCT
Density Regime
Density Regime
DFSIM
TreeLab
ORGANON V7
DFSIM
TreeLab
ORGANON V7
ORGANON V8
FVS PN
FVS PN modified
ORGANON V8
FVS PN
FVS PN modified
Conclusions
The End