Transcript Document

Dropouts and Dropout
Prevention
Jennifer Dounay
Education Commission of the States
Presentation to Oklahoma Senate Education Committee
Oklahoma City, OK
October 29, 2007
About ECS
• 50-state education compact est’d 1965
• Nonpartisan, nonprofit
• Serves all state-level education
policymakers and their staffs:
–
–
–
–
–
Governors
Legislators
State board members
State superintendents
SHEEOs and higher education boards
Education Commission of the States
Overview of Presentation
•
•
•
•
National perspective on dropouts
Implications of dropping out
What the research says
What states are doing
Education Commission of the States
Dropouts: A National Perspective
• Class of 2007: 70% graduation rate
• 30% spread b/w highest, lowest states
– Utah: 83.8%
– South Carolina: 53.8%
• 1.23 million dropouts b/w 2003-04 9th graders and
2006-07 12th graders
• Minority students = more than half of all dropouts
• Females, regardless of race, more likely HS grads
• 9th grade = 1/3 of dropouts
Source: Education Week, 2007 Diplomas Count
Education Commission of the States
The Freshman Pipeline
Education Commission of the States
Caveats about Dropout/Graduation
Rate Data
• State-reported data
can be faulty
– Different means of
calculating =
different results
– Incomplete data
systems
– Variation in definition
of “dropout”
– Human error
• Audits have
identified higherthan-reported
dropout rates in
states
Education Commission of the States
Dropping Out and Employment/Income
• Dropouts more likely to be unemployed or out of labor force
• Current average annual earnings of dropout = $19,400
– Federal poverty level = $19,971 for family of four
• Average annual earnings vary by race/gender
• HS dropout, over lifetime, earns $260,000 less than HS grad
and $1 million less than college grad
• U.S. Chamber of Commerce: 90% of fastest-growing jobs need
postsec.
Education Commission of the States
Job Opportunities: Out of the Zone
• Zone 1: Median income: $12,
638 (32% HS dropouts, 37% HS grads)
• Zone 2: Median income:
$24,461 (16% HS dropouts, 38% HS
grads)
• Zone 3: Median income:
$35,672 (just 9% HS dropouts, 27%
HS grads, 37% some college)
• More than 76 million jobs in U.S. in
zones 3-5
Education Commission of the States
Tax Revenues and Dropouts
• HS grad = average extra $139,100 in lifetime tax
payments
• Class of 2004 dropouts = will cost U.S. over $325
billion in lost wages, taxes
Education Commission of the States
Implications of Dropping Out:
Incarceration
Dropouts comprise:
• 75% of state prison inmates
• 69% of jail inmates
• Almost 59% of federal inmates
Numbers entering state prison w/o diploma rose in
1990s
Inmates cite different reasons for dropping out,
compared to general population
Education Commission of the States
Reducing Crime and Costs by Reducing
Dropouts
• Average lifetime saving per add’l HS grad = $26,600
• Reduced costs in:
– Policing/trials/sentencing
– Incarceration
– Victim medical care/lost tax revenues
– Gov’t crime prevention agencies
5% increase in male HS grad. rates = $5 billion in
incarceration costs
Education Commission of the States
Dropping Out and Health
• Link between more school, life expectancy
• U.S. findings = findings in Sweden, Denmark,
Wales, England
• High school graduation linked to lower
medical care time & expenses
• Higher levels of parent learning = better
infant, children health.
– Infant mortality rates
– Low birth weights
Education Commission of the States
Dropouts and Public Health Costs
• More education = <
need for Medicaid
• Medicaid savings/grad
– $800/year AA woman
– $900/year Hispanic
woman
• Average lifetime
savings per HS grad =
$40,500
Education Commission of the States
Dropouts and Welfare
• Feds = $168
billion/year
• States = $25
billion/year on:
–
–
–
–
–
Cash aid
Food benefits
Housing aid
Energy aid
Training
TANF:
• Approx. 50% dropouts
• Disproportionately
– Female
– Minority
Food stamps over
lifetime:
– 64% of adult dropouts
– 38% HS grads
Education Commission of the States
Welfare Cost Savings of HS Grads
HS Grads:
• TANF—40% less likely
• Housing assistance—1% less likely
• Food stamps—19% less likely
Some college:
• TANF—62% less likely
• Housing assistance—35% less likely
• Food stamps—54% less likely
Education Commission of the States
Cost/Benefit of New Grads
• Spending an additional $82K per
new HS grad = $209K higher gov’t revenues
($127K net benefit)
• Net benefit = increased tax rev., reduced
gov’t costs
• Total $45 billion lifetime savings for ONE
COHORT 20-yr.-olds
Education Commission of the States
Dropping Out and Teen Pregnancy
• 26% of all dropouts, 1/3 female dropouts are
teen parents
• Fewer than 1/3 of mothers before 18 earn
HS diploma (1.5% earn college degree by
30)
• Students with low academic achievement 2x
as likely to become parents by grade 12
• Having teenage mother increases odds of
dropping out
Education Commission of the States
Dropping Out and Divorce
•
•
•
•
71% of dropouts come from fatherless homes
Link between dropping out and future divorce
College-ed. less likely to divorce
1st graders with high
stress at home (death,
divorce, family moves)
= elevated dropout risk
• Low SES 1st graders w/
2 parents at home = moderated dropout risk
Education Commission of the States
What Does the Research Say?
•
•
•
•
•
•
On-track in grade 9
Math curriculum
School size
Math coursetaking/achievement grade 9
Indicators as early as grade 6
Student-teacher relationships
Education Commission of the States
“What Matters for Staying on Track and
Graduating in Chicago Public High Schools”
• Course failures matter
• Attendance matters most
• What else matters:
–
–
–
–
Student effort
Relationships
Gender/race
“The Engagement Factor”
• Programmatic approaches rarely
effective
• Use data to target needs
Education Commission of the States
What Do Dropouts Say?
• Top 5 Reasons for Leaving School:
–
–
–
–
Classes not interesting: 47%
Missed too many days, couldn’t catch up: 43%
Spent time w/people not interested in school: 42%
Had too much freedom and not enough rules in
my life: 38%
– Was failing in school: 35%
Education Commission of the States
What Might Have Kept Them in School
• Making content more relevant to their lives
– 81%: “Real-world learning” via internships, service
learning
• Better teachers who keep class interesting: 81%
• Smaller classes: 75%
• More after-school tutoring, extra help: 70%
• More parental involvement: 70%
• Better communication b/w parents/school: 71%
Education Commission of the States
Impact of Parental Awareness
Education Commission of the States
Dropout Prevention: What States Are Doing
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Increasing rigor of HS curriculum
Student accountability
Graduation plans/career “majors”
Remediation
Early college high schools
Small schools/small learning communities
Alternative pathways to standard diploma
Middle grades efforts
Parental involvement
Ninth grade initiatives
Education Commission of the States
Increasing Rigor
•
•
•
•
Supported by research
OK Class of 2010: part of nat’l trend
Too soon to tell for state efforts
Local efforts (San Jose, CA) encouraging
Education Commission of the States
Student Accountability
• Upper compulsory school age
– Gets at “too much
freedom” cited by dropouts
• No pass/no drive: 27 states
• No pass/no play: 23 states
• Upper statutory age:
21 in 31 states
• Learnfare
Education Commission of the States
Graduation Plans/Career Majors
• OK: Variation on a theme
• Add relevance
• Not aware of research base
Education Commission of the States
Remediation
• Districts req’d to provide/student req’d
to attend
• Individual graduation plans for at-risk
students
• State requires districts to evaluate: 10
states
• Supported by research and dropouts
themselves
Education Commission of the States
Early College High Schools
• Combine HS w/Associate’s Degree (60 credits)
• Targeted to high minority and/or high poverty
– 2/3 African American or Latino
– 60% free/reduced lunch
– Center for Native Education: 18 sites in AK, CA, OR, WA
• State-level policies in 5 states (CO, NC, PA, TN, TX)
• Early returns positive:
– 90%+ attendance rates
– Promotion rates above 90%
Education Commission of the States
Small Schools/Small Learning
Communities
•
•
•
•
•
More local than state-level response
Research and dropouts’ experience support
NV: HS of 1,200+ students must provide SLCs
CA: Financial incentives
FL:
– “Guiding principle” in each HS improvement plan
– State policy establishes SLC models of career/professional
academies
– District policy must encourage any not-small school to divide
into schools-within-a-school
Education Commission of the States
Alternative Pathways to Standard
Diploma
• KY: Credit recovery through
virtual school
• IN: School Flex program
• FL: Districts must provide:
– Alternative means of showing
competency
– Creative/flexible scheduling
– Credit recovery courses, intensive
math/reading intervention courses based
on FCAT scores
• FL: Dept. to provide more
applied, integrated courses
• NV: Earn HS credits while
working toward HS promotion
Education Commission of the States
Middle Grades Efforts
• FL, KY: Career awareness/planning as early as
grade 6
• FL: Middle grades course promotion policies
• FL: Intensive reading, math remediation for low FCAT
scorers
• NV: Include grade 6-8 dropout rates in state board
report
• MS: Pilot on building relationships, planning for
future, importance of staying in school
Education Commission of the States
Parental Involvement
• Addresses research, dropouts’ suggestions
• Areas of policy:
–
–
–
–
–
Developing formal parent involvement policy
Communicating academic expectations to parents
Recognizing, accommodating parent needs
Building staff capacity to engage with parents
Building parent capacity to engage with fellow
parents, staff, and community members
– Developing success benchmarks and evaluating
impact
Education Commission of the States
Ninth Grade Initiatives
• NV: SLCs in large high schools:
– Designate separate grade 9 area
– Keep data on credits earned, attendance, truancy,
other at-risk indicators
– Offer timely ID of grade 9 student needs, i.e.,
remediation, counseling
– Increase parental involvement at grade 9
– Assign guidance counselors, 1+ licensed
administrator, adult mentors for 9th graders
Education Commission of the States
Last but Not Least
Dropping back in
• Upper statutory age
• Opportunities to earn
HS diploma at CC
• Flexible scheduling
• Career/next steps planning
Education Commission of the States
Want to Learn More?
• ECS Research Studies Database: www.ecs.org/rs
• ECS Remediation Database: www.ecs.org > HS Databases
• The Costs and Benefits of an Excellent Education for All of
America’s Children
http://www.cbcse.org/modules/download_gallery/dlc.php?file=35
• Coming soon! ECS database and policy brief on early
college high schools
• Coming soon! ECS policy brief on parental involvement at
the HS level
Education Commission of the States
[email protected]
303.299.3689
Education Commission of the States