OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR

27

th

January, 2010

DEMAND SUMMARY OF ALL INDIA FORECAST

( AS PER 17th EPS REPORT) 2500 2000 218 1500 1000 500 100 690 153 969 1392 0 2006-07 10th Plan End (actual) 2011-12 11th Plan End 2016-17 12th plan End 298 1915 13th Plan 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Energy Requirement (BU) Peak Load (GW)

2

INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) AS ON 31-12-2009

( TYPE_WISE ) Fossil fuel based capacity=99,862 MW (64%) Total Installed Capacity = 1,56,092 MW

GENERATION - 2008-09 (BU)

Generation (2008-09) Type-Wise Nuclear; 15; 2% Diesel; 5; 0% RES *; 28; 4% Hydro; 113; 15% Gas; 73; 10% Coal; 512; 69% Total Generation = 746 BU Fossil fuel based Generation=590 BU (79%) * Estimated

Anticipated Power Supply Position during 11th Plan Period (PEAK)- Based on 62,374 MW Likely Addition in 11 th Plan 16 0 0 0 0 15 2 7 4 6 15 0 0 0 0 14 0 9 4 7 14 0 0 0 0 14 2 7 6 5 13 0 6 5 2 13 0 0 0 0 12 6 8 9 9 12 0 0 0 0 10 8 8 6 6 10 9 8 0 9 110 0 0 0 10 8 5 5 0 10 0 0 0 0 9 0 7 9 3 9 6 6 8 5 9 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 7 0 8 ( A c t u a l ) 2 0 0 8 0 9 ( A c t u a l ) 2 0 0 9 - 10 2 0 10 - 11 P eak Availability Year P eak Load 2 0 11- 12 Actual Power Supply Position for 2007-08 & 2008-09

Anticipated Power Supply Position during 11th Plan Period (ENERGY)- Based on 62,374 MW Likely Addition in 11 th Plan Actual Power Supply Position for 2007-08 & 2008-09

LIKELY CAPACITY ADDITION IN 11

th

PLAN (With High Degree of Certainty)

Nuclear, 3380, 5% Gas/LNG, 6587, 11% Lignite, 2280, 4% Hydro, 8237, 13% Coal, 41890, 67% Total: 62,374 MW

7

GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITION DURING 12

th

& 13

th

PLANS

LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY

1.

2.



Promote Hydro Project Development

Facilitate Statutory Clearances of Projects identified for 12 Plan to ensure placement of orders for main packages in 11 th Plan th 

Promote Renewable Energy

RPOs to be specified by SERCs   Trading of Renewable Purchase Certificates Implementation of solar mission Solar Mission – MoP finalizing strategies for development of Solar Projects totaling 1000 MW through NVVNL by 2013.

- 200 MW roof top solar by 2013 - SERCs to specify RPOs in respect of solar energy, MoP to make necessary modification in NEP/ Tariff Policy

3. Promoting New Gas based projects with a mix of indigenous Gas and imported RLNG with pooled pricing applicable to all the new and existing projects

At least 27,000 MW Gas based capacity needs to be developed during 12 th and 13 th Plan.

LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY

Contd …… 4. Early notification of CEA regulation on construction of power plants indicating mandatory minimum efficiency levels

5. Retirement of Old and Inefficient Coal based Generating units – 4000 MW each in 12 th and 13 th Plan.

– List of projects to be retired during 11 th Plan has been finalised and 1100 MW already retired.

6. Implementation of National Enhanced Efficiency Renovation and Modernization Program .

– To incentivise States, 50% of generation capability of the unit just before shut down for R&M may be compensated by way of additional allocation from unallocated quota during the normative period of shut down.

– Low interest rate financing for enhanced efficiency based R&M.

LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY

Contd …… 7. Adoption of Clean Coal Technology

Target:12th Plan – At least 50% of Coal based capacity should be super critical 13th Plan – All coal based capacity should be super critical

Action: (a) Creation of Indigenous manufacturing capacity for super critical equipment (b) Incentivising Indigenous Manufacturers to ensure transfer of Super Critical Technology (c) Bulk tendering for 11x660 MW Super Critical units with mandatory indigenous manufacturing in progress. To initiate Bulk Tendering for 800 MW size units shortly after finalising orders for 660 MW.

(d) Bulk tendering for projects based on Ultra super critical technology with mandatory indigenous manufacturing by 2011-12.

(e) MOEF to be advised not to clear any Coal based projects w.e.f. 01-04 2012 on Sub-critical technology. No coal linkages for Sub-critical plants for 13 th Plan (f) Propose zero custom duty and excise duty on Super Critical Plans supplied by indigenous manufacturers.

LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY

Contd…… 8. Reduction of T&D losses to be accorded high priority

– –

Franchise model to be promoted.

Implementation of R- APDRP to reduce technical and commercial losses.

9. Implementation of BEE Program

  

Implementation of ECBC in states DSM in municipal, agriculture and buildings Enforcement of energy intensity standards in Energy Intensive Industry and trading of emission reduction certificates.

 

CFL Bachat Lamp Yojna Agriculture (Ag DSM) Pump efficiency improvement through ESCO.



Labeling of Appliances

•

Labeling of Inverters on priority

THREE CAPACITY ADDITION SCENARIOS-12

th

Plan

Hydro Nuclear Renewable (Excluding Solar) Solar Retirements of Old inefficient Units Gas Coal Sub-Critical Super Critical 12th Plan (Total) (Conventional) BAU 8500 4800 MODERATE 16360 4800 OPTIMISTIC 21200 4800 15000 0 0 0 94300 68100 26200 107600 15000 2000 4000 13000 69810 28010 41800 106470 15000 4000 4000 25000 53410 21410 32000 106910

THREE CAPACITY ADDITION SCENARIOS-13

th

Plan

(All Figures in MW)

Hydro Nuclear Renewable Excluding Solar Solar Retirements of old inefficient units Gas Coal Sub-Critical Super Critical 13th Plan (Total) (Conventional) BAU 8500 5000 15000 0 MODERATE 25000 8000 16500 8000 OPTIMISTIC 33540 13000 16500 16000 0 0 60500 44500 16000 74000 4000 14000 35200 0 35200 82200 4000 20000 22400 0 22400 88940

Weighted Average Emissions Fuel- Wise

(tCO 2 /MWh) * Coal

During 2007-08

1.00

With Latest Technology 0.88 (Super Critical HR 2326) Gas Oil 0.46

0.71

0.34 (CCGT η - 53%) 0.25 (CCHP η - 70%) 0.71

DG Sets 0.61

0.61

Bio Mass Co2 Neutral Co2 Neutral

* Values calculated on gross generation

Emission Factor (kg/kwh of CO2)

0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,805 429 0,777 462 0,753 470 0,737 495 0,72 520 0,734 548 749 0,735 2002 03 2003 04 2004 05 2005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Emission Factor with Total Generation(kg/kwh) Total Emission (MT)

STUDY RESULTS

Based on EGEAS Program run for projected load curves

–

Gas based generation @ 70% PLF in all scenarios

– –

Renewables – Must run Coal based generation operated on merit order

Note: Figures for 2004-05 and 2006-07 are actual

Note: Figures for 2004-05 and 2006-07 are actual

Anticipated Percentage Reduction of Emission Factor (Kg/Kwh) for Power Sector w.r.t. year 2004-05 End of 10th Plan (2006-07) (Actual) End of 11th Plan (2011-12) End of 12th Plan (2016-17) End of 13th Plan (2021-22) BAU Moderate Optimistic 5.1

5.4

5.9

11.2

15.7

6.6

15.6

20.3