Transcript Document

UNDERSTANDING
INDUSTRY EMERGENCE IN
SOUTH AFRICA
WIND ENERGY AND HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS
GLOBELICS SEMINAR: LEARNING, INNOVATION
AND LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT,
COPENHAGEN, APRIL 4-5, 2013
RADHIKA PERROT
MAPUNGUBWE INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC
REFLECTION. SOUTH AFRICA
STRUCTURE
TIS analyse – transitions and industry emergence
Energy Landscape in South Africa
Wind Energy
Hydrogen Fuel Cells
Conclusion
TECHNOLOGY
INNOVATION SYSTEMS
The TIS is a network of agents ...involved in the generation,
diffusion, and utilization of technology (Carlsson and Stankiewicz,
1991)
Bergek et al. (2008) have highlighted 7 functions - knowledge
development and diffusion through networks, entrepreneurial
experimentation, legitimation etc.
The TIS approach is a good analytical framework to understand
emergence of new technologies and industries (Nygaard, 2008;
Coenen e López, 2009)
KNOWLEDGE
NETWORKS
Knowledge networks for joint research and problem solving...they
strengthen local research capacities and strengthen local-ownership
(Mytelka et al., 2012)
Emerging as a form of technology transfer and localisation strategy -Petrobas was a pioneer in using knowledge networks between 1960s
-2000s as a vehicle to develop off-shore oil technology
Choi et al. (2011) regards a network as not only the result of supplydemand relationships, but of knowledge and institutional factors that
are embedded within a system. It emerges prior to a value chain and
considered precursors to industry emergence
ENERGY LANDSCAPE:
SOUTH AFRICA
High coal reliance (CTL-technologies and CCS) – 90% of
electricity generated from coal (the bulk of the capacity – about
85% is from Eskom’s coal-fired power stations
One of the cheapest cost of electricity in the world – does not
trigger switching
Supply emergency (2008): electricity reserve margin was at 3%
(while international standards is at 15%). It is estimated that SA
will need additional capacity even under a low-growth scenario
ENERGY LANDSCAPE
Carbon Intensities of the BASIC countries
10
9
8
tCO2 per capita
7
6
South Africa
5
India
4
China
3
Brazil
2
1
SOURCE: WORLD RESOURCE INSTITUTE,
2011
0
SOURCE: IEA, 2011
ENERGY LANDSCAPE
NUS Consulting, June 2012
PUBLICATIONS
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
INDIA
1000
BRAZIL
800
CHINA
600
SOUTH AFRICA
400
200
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
SOURCE: WOS, 2011
WIND ENERGY
Independent Power Producers scheme: For a long time there was no
clarity on the exact form of IPP participation and indecisiveness cost
government valuable time in introducing new generation capacity
There are 5 rounds of bidding, 3rd bidding round in mid-April – been
many challenges and delays, including regulatory barriers and policy
uncertainty.
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for electricity released in 2010
targets wind to achieve 800 MW (2010-2013), CSP 200 MW (20142015) and solar PV 2400 MW (2012 – 2019).
The first significant (IPP) installation is still some time away
WIND ENERGY: TWO
CRITICAL ASPECTS
Technology Transfer
Local content requirement through increased local manufacturing. Bidding rounds one
and two attracted average local content commitments with percentages of 21.7% and
36.7% respectively (DoE, 2012). However, the target values set by the DoE were 45%
for round one, and 60% for round two projects.
International Links
Currently wind energy technologies and its components are being imported from other
countries, and wind power projects are being developed by few local and several
international firms
Stamm et al. (2009), emphasizes that globalisation is affecting the generation of
knowledge and the deployment of technologies, including disciplines of relevance
for more sustainable development paths.
WIND ENERGY: ISSUES
Influence in the direction of search has been positive. Target ceiling increased on wind energy
from 1200 to 1800 MW. Total capacity of 2934 MW allocated in contracts and not actual
generating capacity
No evidence of entrepreneurial experimentation in the wind and solar energy industry and
attributes of market formation are weak.
There is weak articulation of interest and legitimation. The private sector is prevented from
securing power purchase agreements that reflects their cost of investment in power plants, the
market was not only uncompetitive (Bekker et al., 2008). Eskom and Sasol dominate the
scene
Path dependence and carbon lock in of institutions and technologies (Foxon, 2002) . The new
regime does not emerge in isolation but is connected with the emergence of new technologies,
expectations, skills, management systems, supplier-user relationships, ideas, and changes in
the regulatory framework (Freeman and Perez, 1988 ).
HFC: BACKGROUND
South Africa supplies 75% of the world’s platinum and national priority
mandates that the country must move beyond mining and towards a
knowledge-based economy (e.g. value added services from mining) –
platinum is used as a catalysis in PEM fuel cell (dominant design)
DST Goal: to globally supply 25% of hydrogen fuel cells by 2020
DST Strategy : The focus is to supply international markets although key
aspects of local content remain – job creation, manufacturing capabilities
Replicate the success of the autocatalytic convertor industry (15%) which is
the most successful beneficiation strategy from the mining of Platinum Group
Metals (PGM)
DST: HFC STRATEGY
DST: HFC STRATEGY
DST – SOUTH AFRICAN HYDROGEN STRATEGY
SOURCE: DST
HFC: TWO CRITICAL
ASPECTS
Technology Transfer
Another policy mechanism that can achieve objectives of localization
is research and development agreements (Lewis and Wiser, 2007).
In which regard research networks can be considered a form of
localization strategy
International Links
Recruitment of international scientists to head and work within the
HySA research network – Germans, Japanese, Canadians, English,
Indians etc. Negotiations with German companies to license
manufacturing rights to local companies – steel companies, platinum
ore extraction companies, electrical design, software etc.
PUBLICATIONS
BACKWARD CITATIONS
TOP 500 PAPERS ON HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS
SOURCE: FERREIRA AND PERROT, 2013
PATENTS
BACKWARD CITATION NETWORK ANALYSIS
SOURCE: FERREIRA AND PERROT, 2013
PATENTS
SOUTH AFRICA’S EGO-CENTRIC NETWORK
SOURCE: FERREIRA AND PERROT, 2013
PUBLICATIONS
TRIPLE HELIX: GOVERNMENT
SOURCE: WOS, 1988-2012
PUBLICATIONS
TRIPLE HELIX: INDUSTRY
SOURCE: WOS, 1988 -2012
PUBLICATIONS
TRIPLE HELIX: UNIVERSITY
SOURCE: WOS, 1988-2012
COUNTRY ANALYSIS
Limited market competition, with either government or big firms
acting as main influencers, and venture capital playing a very
limited role
Notably there seems to be a lot of international integration,
several countries are interconnected, especially in respect to
research more or less linked to automotive industry
Although some countries exhibit a certain degree of “privatization”
of the development of the industry, most mechanisms and
activities are state driven, indicating the prevalent role of the state
across countries
CONCLUSION
National knowledge-building strategies change with the national
institutional contexts.
National knowledge-building strategies also changes with the
stage of the technology - Mature clean energy technologies
require faster transfer and adaptation of technologies from
advanced nations
While newer technologies are demanding strategic action –
pooling of complementary resources, creation of R&D networks
(and increasing reliance on international sources of knowledge
and skills)
THANK YOU
Questions/issue discussions