Transcript 2005 Hampden WIA Industrial Makeup & Vacancy Rates

Recent Economic Trends in
Massachusetts: Which are critical
industries?
Navjeet Singh
Vice President, Research and Evaluation
617-727-8158
[email protected]
Jonathan Latner
Research and Evaluation Analyst
617-727-8158
[email protected]
Page 1
Massachusetts Employment Trends
Employment is recovering from recession, but has not equaled its peak of Feb ‘01
Dec, 2000
3,363,000
Feb, 2001
3,372,900
Mar, 2003
3,192,200
Jan, 1990
3,036,700
Aug., 2006
3,224,000
Dec, 2003
3,167,100
June, 1991
2,824,700
Apr, 1992
2,789,400
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
CES Data, Seasonally Adjusted Data
Note: Recession Dates According to NBER
Page 2
Do We Have Enough Workers Now?
Many people are seeking work
In July ’06, 147,800 fewer employed than at peak Feb ’01
From 2000 to 2005:
36,000 fewer people
70,000 fewer people in the labor force
69,000 more “unemployed”
32,000 more working part- time
11,000 more “marginally” attached –stopped looking for jobs recently:
5,000 more “discouraged”
6,000 more stopped due to family or transportation reasons
From 2000 to 2004
47,500 more contractors or “non-employer” businesses in 2004 than in
2000
Note: Based on 12 month averages from Current Population Survey (CPS)
Source: BLS (CPS) & Census (Non-employer)
Source: Census Population Estimates
Page 3
Massachusetts Employment 2005
Healthcare is the largest Industry
Health Care
Retail
Manufacturing
Education
Hotels & Food Svcs.
Prof. Tech. Svcs.
Finance
Admin. Svcs.
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Government
Other Svcs.
Information
Transp. & Warehousing
Mgmt. Of Companies
Arts, Entertainment
Real Estate
Utilities
458,965
355,681
305,518
303,067
246,256
234,195
176,565
163,504
150,900
132,651
130,836
120,207
93,161
92,678
65,618
46,900
45,031
12,939
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
QCEW/ES-202, 2005 Annualized Data
Page 4
Which of the industries share of
employment in Massachusetts is high
Indicates relative strength: Mgmt. Of Companies, Information, Prof. Tech.
Svcs., Finance, & Healthcare
Health Care
119%
Retail
97%
Manufacturing
89%
Education
109%
Hotels & Food Svcs.
94%
Prof. Tech. Svcs.
136%
Finance
124%
Admin. Svcs.
83%
Construction
84%
Wholesale Trade
96%
Government
76%
Other Svcs.
114%
Information
Transp. & Warehousing
121%
74%
Mgmt. Of Companies
157%
Arts
87%
Real Estate
86%
Utilities
Source: BLS
QCEW, 2005 Annualized Data for MA & US
67%
Page 5
Employment Trends (2001-2005):
Since Peak Employment
Very few industries growing: Healthcare, Education,
Hotels/ Food Services, and Other Services
Health Care
29,200
-3,365
Retail
Manufacturing
-83,714
8,855
8,449
Education
Hotels & Food Svcs.
-12,312
Prof. Tech. Svcs.
-6,956
Finance
-4,880
Admin. Svcs.
-374
Construction
-8,435
Wholesale Trade
-9,675
Government
7,041
Other Svcs.
Information
Transp. & Warehousing
Mgmt. Of Companies
Arts, Entertainment
-24,566
-12,482
-6,307
-62
145
Real Estate
Utilities
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
ES-202, 2001, 2005 Annualized Data
-2,025
Page 6
Employment Trends (2004 – 2005):
More Widespread Growth
Health Care
Retail
Manufacturing
Education
Hotels & Food Svcs.
7,703
-120
-7,833
2,698
1,679
8,088
Prof. Tech. Svcs.
Finance
Admin. Svcs.
Construction
4,327
2,548
1,115
-2,384
Wholesale Trade
Government
Other Svcs.
Information
Transp. & Warehousing
Mgmt. Of Co.
Arts
Real Estate
Utilities
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
ES-202, 2004, 2005 Annualized Data
339
2,650
-65
-1,301
964
-4,253
275
-255
Page 7
The economy is turning around!
Employment Trends
(2001 – 2005)
Health Care
Retail
Manufacturing -83,714
Education
Hotels & Food Svcs.
Prof. Tech. Svcs.
Finance
Admin. Svcs.
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Government
Other Svcs.
Information
Transp. & Warehousing
Mgmt. Of Co.
Arts
Real Estate
Utilities
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
ES-202, 2001, 2004, 2005 Annualized Data
Employment Trends
(2004 – 2005)
29,200
-3,365
-7,833
2,698
1,679
8,855
8,449
-12,312
-6,956
-4,880
-374
-2,384
-8,435
-9,675
7,041
-24,566
-1,301
-12,482
-6,307
-62
145
-2,025
7,703
-120
-4,253
-255
8,088
4,327
2,548
1,115
339
2,650
-65
964
275
Page 8
Massachusetts Job Vacancy Rate by Industry
Q4, 2005
Highest vacancy rates: Professional/Tech Services,
Retail (only in 4Q), Healthcare, Real Estate
Health Care
3.7%
4.1%
Retail
1.5%
Manufacturing
Education
1.3%
2.4%
Hotels & Food Svcs.
4.1%
Prof. Tech. Svcs.
2.2%
Finance
2.7%
Admin. Svcs.
1.7%
Construction
Wholesale Trade
1.6%
2.4%
Government
2.2%
Other Svcs.
2.3%
Information
2.7%
Transp. & Warehousing
2.3%
Mgmt. Of Co.
Arts
2.4%
3.4%
Real Estate
Utilities
Source: MA DWD
Job Vacancy Survey, Q4, 2005
0.3%
Page 9
Selecting “critical industries”
• What criteria to use?
• What relative importance or weight should
be given to different criteria?
• When we use selected criteria what
industries rise to the top?
Page 10
What criteria to use?
• What criteria can we use to select critical
industries?
• Some options, rank your top five choices:
– in which Massachusetts is strong (strong meaning?)
– In which employment is high (how high?)
– in which there has been long-term or short-term
growth
– which pay well
– which have entry level jobs with growth opportunities
– have a lot of vacancies
– are projected to grow
Page 11
Details on
Professional & Technical Services
Industries & Occupations
Page 12
Professional & Technical Services
1.
2.
3.
Employment Peaked in December, 2000
Employment Reached bottom in March, 2003 (12% Loss)
One of the few industries projected to grow in the next 5 years
Aug., 2006
241,800
Dec, 2000
251,100
Jan, 1990
159,700
June, 1991
151,200
Mar, 2003
219,800
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: MA DWD
CES Data, Seasonally Unadjusted Data
Note: Recession Dates According to NBER
Page 13
What Defines Professional & Technical
Services?
2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
2 Digit NAICS Code
3 Digit NAICS Code
4 Digit NAICS Code
5 Digit NAICS Code
6 Digit NAICS Code
Professional & Technical Services
Professional & Technical Services
Legal Services
Accounting Services
Architectural & Egineering Services
Specialized Design
Computer Systems Design
Management Consulting
Scientific R & D
Advertising
Other Professional & Technical Services
Source: Census Bureau
Page 14
What is included in Professional &
Technical Services
2005 Employment
Comp. Syst. Design
44,575
Architectural & Engineering
39,788
Scientific R & D
39,719
Mgmt. Consulting Svcs.
33,948
Legal
30,853
Accounting
20,063
Advertising
11,409
Other Prof. Sci. & Tech. Svcs.
Spec. Design
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
ES-202, 2005 Annualized Data
10,702
3,164
Page 15
Professional & Technical Services
Medium & Short Term Employment Trends
Employment Trends
(2001 – 2005)
Employment Trends
(2004 – 2005)
1,731
Comp. Syst. Design -15,571
Arch. & Eng.
1,337
-480
Scientific R & D
Mgmt. Consulting Svcs.
Advertising
479
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
ES-202, 2001, 2004, 2005 Annualized Data
-186
775
-638
141
-2,892
Other Prof. Sci. & Tech. Svcs.
Spec. Design
2,564
1,060
Legal
Accounting
1,309
4,890
402
1,415
-549
28
Page 16
What are the Major Occupations
in Professional & Technical Services?
Most of the occupations that work in this industry are highly educated, but there
are those that do not require a Bachelor’s Degree
Other
14%
Architecture &
Engineering
5%
Life, Phys., & Soc.
Science
5%
Legal
11%
Management
12%
Financial Operations
12%
Computer &
Mathematical
19%
Administrative Support
22%
Source: MA DWD
Occupational-Industry Crosswalk
Page 17
What are the Top 5 Occupations in
Professional & Technical Services?
SOC-CODE
SOC – Description
23-1011
Lawyers
8%
15-1051
Computer Systems Analysts
5%
13-1111
Management Analysts
4%
43-6012
Legal Secretaries
4%
13-2011
Accountants and Auditors
4%
Source: MA DWD
Occupational-Industry Crosswalk
% of the Industry
Page 18