Transcript Slide 1
Economic model of transgenic crop adoption Ian McFarlane, Julian Park, Graziano Ceddia Background: Previous research in this area The AMIGA* Project University of Reading’s involvement Economic model *Assessing and Monitoring Impacts of Genetically modified plants on Agro-ecosystems Model features: • Dynamic 5-year simulation • EU divided into 5 Regions • Crops selected from menu of crops for given Region • Potential Yield of crop recalculated each month as a function of: – – – – Weed Pressure Pest Pressure Risk (stochastic) Field Management (future option: Climate Change effects) Regions: Regions: [These regions are defined in the AMIGA work program] EU Regions: • For the AMIGA work packages, four regions were selected based on the Natura 2000* approach (Boreal, Atlantic, Continental, Mediterranean) • The fifth region (Balkans), includes two countries that belong to four Natura different zones. *Natura 2000 is an EU wide network of nature protection areas established under the 1992 Habitats Directive. Crops by Region: ‘000 ha year: 2008 [Eurostat] Model data: • Crop hectares (by Member State) from Eurostat • Regional features (e.g. incidence of pests) • Economic variables (includes GM seed price policies) • Farm management costs - Data input via set of spreadsheets - Calculations performed in VBA (Visual Basic for Excel App) - Data output into new sheets in new workbooks Rotations year: region rotation 1 1 feedmaize feedmaize rape springwheat feedmaize 2 soya springwheat feedmaize springwheat feedmaize 3 feedmaize sugarbeet feedmaize feedmaize rape 4 springwheat rape feedmaize springwheat springwheat 5 soya feedmaize springwheat sugarbeet feedmaize 1 springwheat feedmaize rape springwheat feedmaize 2 rape springwheat feedmaize springwheat feedmaize 3 feedmaize springwheat feedmaize rape springwheat 4 springwheat feedmaize springwheat feedmaize rape 5 feedmaize rape springwheat feedmaize springwheat 1 winterwheat potato feedmaize rape springwheat 2 feedmaize springwheat sugarbeet springwheat sugarbeet 3 potato springwheat potato feedmaize springwheat 4 springwheat feedmaize rape springwheat feedmaize 5 feedmaize springwheat soya feedmaize springwheat 1 winterwheat rape winterwheat rape winterwheat 2 springwheat potato springwheat potato springwheat 3 winterwheat sugarbeet springwheat winterwheat potato 4 springwheat potato sugarbeet springwheat springwheat 5 winterwheat springwheat winterwheat sugarbeet springwheat 1 springwheat sugarbeet other springwheat springwheat 2 other springwheat springwheat sugarbeet springwheat 3 springwheat other springwheat other springwheat 4 springwheat springwheat potato springwheat other 5 potato other springwheat springwheat potato 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 In proportion to hectares cultivated by region in 2009 [Eurostat] Model schematic Model details: Weed Pressure Function of : - previous cultivar on this plot - Herbicide application(s) Model details: Pest Pressure Function of: - Previous application(s) of pesticide - Random occurrence of pest pressure - Current pest management policy Model details: Field Management Function of: - Tillage policy - Fertiliser application(s) - Previous cultivar Economic Model Loop in one month steps for each: year > region > plot > crop Model interface: VBA User Form for initialisation Economic variables - Seed cost - Crop value - Pest control cost(s) - Weed control cost(s) - Fertiliser cost - Labour cost - Coexistence cost Result format: runID: xx-mmddyy GM €'000 '000 '000 '000 €'000 '000 '000 gross ha winterwheat springwheat feedmaize soya rape cotton potato sugarbeet rice other HT maize IR maize HTIR maize HT soya HT rape IR cotton GM potato seed control sales margin '000 gross ha seed control sales margin Key Challenges Yield data for GM crops in the EU Estimating weed and pest pressures Price estimates for GM products in the EU Assumptions about typical rotations Crop (event) availability in the future [Include findings from sister groups in the project] References: Brookes G. (2012) European arable crop profit margins GBC Ltd Eurostat: Crops products [apro_cpp_crop] http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=apro_cpp_crop Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) http://circa.europa.eu/Public/irc/agri/rica/ library?l=/micro-economic_analyses/standard_results John Nix Farm Management Pocketbook (42nd edn) http://www.thepocketbook.biz/ ------------------ Gomez-Barbero M., et al (2008) Adoption and performance of the first GM crop introduced in EU agriculture: Bt maize in Spain. JRC-IPTS Report 22778 Park J., et al (2011) The impact of the EU regulatory constraint of transgenic crops on farm income. New Biotechnology, 28(4), 396-406