Transcript Slide 1

NTIS 2010 Main Findings
Thierry Noyelle, PhD
Kathmandu, June 24, 2010
 Goal: Ensure that trade development is a driver
of “inclusive” growth by identifying, expanding,
and diversifying an “inclusive” export base
 Challenges: (1) Improve market access
conditions; (2) Develop capacity to meet NTBs
and improve domestic business environment; (3)
Strengthen and diversify export supply capacity;
(4) Strengthen GoN’s management and
coordination of TRTA and AfT
Exported Products and Services are changing…
Balance of Payment, Current Account. In Rs million
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
% change
2002-2008
Goods Exports, fob
Service Exports
Net remittances
total
50,760
26,518
54,203
131,481
55,228
34,315
58,587
148,130
59,956
26,001
65,541
151,498
61,482
26,469
97,688
185,639
61,488
32,078
100,144
193,710
61,971
42,236
142,682
246,889
69,906
52,830
209,698
332,434
37.7
99.2
286.9
152.8
Goods Imports, fob
Service Imports
total
121,053
19,469
140,522
132,909
25,241
158,150
147,718
28,036
175,754
171,540
32,288
203,828
190,437
40,456
230,893
217,962
53,328
271,290
279,227
63,308
342,535
130.7
225.2
143.8
Other net transfers (small) not shown; Garment exports declined by more than 60% and carpet exports were flat during period
Source: Nepal Rastra Bank
Destination markets are changing …
Nepali Goods Exports by Destination 2004, 2008. In US$ 1,000
Ra nk
I mporti ng Country
2004 Goods
I mport from
Ne pa l
total
684,209
1
India
342,883
2
EU
128,260
3
USA
156,140
4
Canada
11,328
5
Turkey
4,532
6
Japan
7,570
7
Switzerland
7,768
8
China
8,231
9
UAE
434
10
Egypt
0
11
Australia
1,706
12
Philippines
15
13
Sri Lanka
78
14
Hong Kong
1,238
15
Sudan
8
16
Singapore
2,558
17
Bhutan
0
18
Malaysia
282
19
Pakistan
3,710
20
Mexico
986
Source: Trade Map
red: declines
blue: increases of 30% or more during 2004-8
2004 %
Sha re of
tota l
50.1
18.7
22.8
1.7
0.7
1.1
1.1
1.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.1
2008 Goods
I mports from
Ne pa l
953,637
632,095
127,349
92,302
14,559
14,412
11,229
6,767
5,983
5,011
4,782
4,204
3,647
3,566
3,426
3,350
3,264
2,975
1,975
1,450
1,419
2008 %
Sha re of
tota l
66.3
13.4
9.7
1.5
1.5
1.2
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
% Growth
2004-8
15.5
-0.2
-12.3
6.5
33.5
10.4
-3.4
-7.7
84.3
very large
25.3
294.9
160.0
29.0
352.4
6.3
very large
62.7
-20.9
9.5
Challenge: Build on recent trends to expand and
diversify an “inclusive” export base….
–Increase the number of exported
products and services
–Increase the number of destination
markets
–Move up the Value Chain
–Encourage the development of export
sectors with high, positive “socioeconomic” impact
Rank
1
2
3
12
19
24
Country
Number of HS-6
products
exported
4,931
4,871
4,819
4,539
4,261
4,208
Average number
of markets per
product
46.0
52.1
38.5
22.2
20.4
18.7
4,582
2,252
2,037
1,215
821
104
24
25.8
8.7
5.1
5.9
2.8
1.1
5.0
4,392
4,177
3,993
3,855
3,072
2,301
686
628
359
16.1
12.7
16.9
11.7
8.1
7.9
3.7
4.4
3.0
USA
China
United Kingdom
Japan
Taipei (SARC)
Korea, Rep.
SAARC Countries
11
India
60
Pakistan
65
Sri Lanka
83
Bangladesh
99
Nepal
176
Bhutan
200
Maldives
ASEAN Countries
13
Singapore
25
Malaysia
27
Thailand
29
Indonesia
43
Viet Nam
59
Philippines
110
Myanmar
117
Cambodia
135
Lao PDR
Source: ITC (2006 export data, direct & mirror)
NTIS 2010 identifies19 export potential goods
and services ….
19 Priority Export Potentials
#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Agro-Food
Cardamom
Ginger
Honey
Lentils
Tea
Noodles
Medicinal & Essential Oils
Craft and Industrial Goods
8
9
10
11
12
Handmade Paper
Silver Jewelry
Iron and Steel
Pashmina
Wool Products
Services
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Tourism
Labor Services
IT & BPO Services
Health Services
Education
Engineering
Hydro-electricity
An analysis of the 19 export potentials confirms
changes in attractive destination markets and in
market access issues….
Geographical Distribution of Top 10 Attractive Markets and Tariff Advantage (Disadvantage)in Attractive Markets
For 12 Goods and 3 Service Export Potentials
Tariff Advantage for Export Potential
Top 10 Attractive Markets by Export Potential Goods and Services by Region
Goods in Top 10 Markets
Middle East &
Gulf
Cardamom
Ginger
Honey
Lentils
Tea
4
1
1
6
3
SAARC
Eastern Europe
and CIS
SE & E Asia
1
3
1
2
Med. Herbs
All Agro-Food
Hand. Paper
1
15
3
8
1
Silver Jewel.
Iron/ Steel
1
1
Pashmina
Wool Prod.s
All Craft
/Indust. Goods
4
Labor Serv.
(top 20)
Tourism
All Services
1
2
3
2
8
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
6
3
1
40
1
13
1
2
6
40
68
12
5
9
6
8
9
9
10
9
10
8
1
1
37
46
4
3
2
1
1
2
1
5
2
4
2
1
1
4
1
1
2
2
7
3
8
Source: Export Potential Assessment (NTIS Chapter 2)
12
30
tariff
disadvantage
(<-5%)
9
8
4
10
10
8
10
9
3
3
tariff
advantage
(>+5%)
3
4
7
2
4
8
6
6
1
4
1
No tariff
advantage
(<+/-5%)
5
Education
Engineering
Subtotal
2
2
1
Noodles
Essential Oils
Others
"Northern"
developed
countries
20
2
1
0
2
0
Impact of the 19 sectors on water and electricity
resources is limited….
Impact of 19 Export Potentials on Water and Electricity Resources
#
Sectors
Electricity
intensity
Water
intensity
Overall
resource
intensity
low
low
low
medium
low
medium
low
medium
low
low
low
low
medium
low
medium-low
low
low
medium-low
low
medium
low
low
low
high
medium
medium
medium
low
medium
medium
medium
medium-low
low
medium-high
medium
medium
medium
none
medium
low
low
none
low
medium
none
low
medium
low
none
high
medium
none
medium-low
medium-low
low
none
medium
Agro-Food
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Large cardamom
Ginger
Honey
Lentils
Tea
Instant noodles
Medicinal herbs / oils
Craft and Industrial Goods
8
9
10
11
12
Handmade paper
Silver jewelry
Iron and Steel products
Pashmina products
Wool products
Services
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Tourism
Labor services
IT & BPO services
Health services
Education services
Engineering services
Hydro-electricity
Detailed analyses in NTIS 2010 suggest …..
1.
2.
3.
4.
Four Major Areas of Capacity Building
Strengthening Market Access negotiations,
especially bilateral negotiations and in priority
products and services identified in NTIS 2010;
Strengthening the domestic business environment,
including institutions focusing on NTBs;
Addressing capacity needs of individual sectors –
especially focusing on the 19 export potentials;
Strengthening GoN’s capacity to coordinate and
manage TRTA and AfT
These four capacity building areas are the basis
for preparing an …..
Action Matrix
to support the development of an
“inclusive” trade sector in Nepal
The Working Sessions during today’s launch
will help us point to several areas where
Government and Private Sector Actions are
needed….
During the Closing Session, we will seek to
reduce the Action Matrix to a “bite-size” list of
short- to medium-term priorities that could
serve as a starting point for implementing NTIS
2010 Action Matrix….
Thank you for your attention…..
We look forward to your active participation
during today’s discussions