Transcript State of Utah 2004 Baseline Projections 2000-2030

From UPED to REMI:
Utah’s Experience in Developing Long-Term
Economic and Demographic Projections
Utah Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
January 2006
Synopsis of Current Situation
► Utah
2002
bought its REMI Policy Insight models in
► The
REMI models replaced Utah’s in-house
models, which had been used for over 30
years
► The
2005 Baseline long-term projection series
is the first one to incorporate the REMI
models
Background of UPED
► UPED
combines a cohort component and an
economic base model
► It
produces projections of population, components
of change, households, and employment by industry
at the county and state level
► UPED
was developed and implemented as Utah’s
official projection model in the 1970s
► UPED
produced extremely accurate population
projections
 1970 projection of state population in 2000 within 8% of
actual decennial Census count
Historical
Data
Utah is in the Center of the Fastest
Growing Area of the Country
Percent Change in Population for States: 1990 to 2000
U.S. Rate = 13.2%
WA
21.1
MT
12.9
OR
20.4
CA
13.8
ND
0.5
ID
28.5
NV
66.3
WY
8.9
UT
29.6
AZ
40.0
CO
30.6
NM
20.1
MN
12.4
SD
8.5
IA
5.4
NE
8.4
KS
8.5
OK
9.7
TX
22.8
AK
14.0
HI
9.3
Source: U.S Census Bureau
VT
8.2
WI
9.6
MI
6.9
NH
11.4
ME
3.8
MA
5.5
NY
5.5
PA
3.4
OH
IL IN 4.7 WV
VA
8.6 9.7
MO
0.8 14
KY
9.3
NC
9.7
TN 16.7
SC 21.4
AR
13.7
GA 15.1
AL
MS
26.4
LA 10.5 10.1
5.9
FL
23.5
CT
3.6
DE
17.6
RI
4.5
NJ
8.9
MD
10.8
Percent Change
39.6 or more (More than Three Times the U.S. Rate)
26.4 to 39.5 (More than Twice the U.S. Rate)
BOX ELDER
Utah’s Fastest
Growing Counties
1990 - 2000
40.0% Increase or Greater
TOOELE
CACHE
WEBER
MORGAN
DAVIS
DAGGETT
SUMMIT
SALT
LAKE
WASATCH
UINTAH
UTAH
DUCHESNE
JUAB
CARBON
Increase of 20.0% - 39.9%
SANPETE
MILLARD
Increase of less than 20%
EMERY
GRAND
SEVIER
BEAVER
IRON
WASHINGTON
Source: US Census Bureau
RICH
PIUTE
WAYNE
GARFIELD
KANE
SAN
JUAN
Utah is an Urban State
Percent Urban
100%
90%
87%
88%
1990
2000
84%
80%
80%
75%
70%
65%
56%
60%
50%
52%
46%
48%
1910
1920
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Utah’s
Population
Centers
►
These counties are
home to 1,813,669
residents, or 76%
of the state’s
population.
BOX ELDER
TOOELE
Three out of every
four people in Utah
live along the
Wasatch Front.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
RICH
WEBER
MORGAN
DAVIS
DAGGETT
SUMMIT
SALT
LAKE
WASATCH
UINTAH
UTAH
DUCHESNE
JUAB
CARBON
SANPETE
MILLARD
EMERY
GRAND
SEVIER
BEAVER
►
CACHE
IRON
WASHINGTON
PIUTE
WAYNE
GARFIELD
KANE
SAN
JUAN
Utah’s
Population
Centers
►
These counties are
home to 1,973,207
residents, or 83%
of the state’s
population.
BOX ELDER
TOOELE
RICH
WEBER
MORGAN
DAVIS
DAGGETT
SUMMIT
SALT
LAKE
WASATCH
UINTAH
UTAH
DUCHESNE
JUAB
CARBON
SANPETE
MILLARD
EMERY
GRAND
SEVIER
BEAVER
IRON
WASHINGTON
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
CACHE
PIUTE
WAYNE
GARFIELD
KANE
SAN
JUAN
Utah’s
Population
Centers
►
These counties are
home to 2,169,373
residents, or 91%
of the state’s
population.
BOX ELDER
TOOELE
RICH
WEBER
MORGAN
DAVIS
DAGGETT
SUMMIT
SALT
LAKE
WASATCH
UINTAH
UTAH
DUCHESNE
JUAB
CARBON
SANPETE
MILLARD
EMERY
GRAND
SEVIER
BEAVER
IRON
WASHINGTON
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
CACHE
PIUTE
WAYNE
GARFIELD
KANE
SAN
JUAN
1972
1982
1993
1997
Utah Has the Largest
Households in the Nation
Average U.S. Household Size: 2.59
Utah....................
Hawaii................
California............
Alaska.................
Texas..................
3.13
2.92
2.87
2.74
2.74
Maine..................
2.39
A “household is a person or group of
persons who live in a housing unit.
These equal the count of occupied
housing units in a census.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
Comparing UPED and REMI
Advantages and Disadvantages of UPED
Advantages
Disadvantages
► Accuracy
► Lack
 8% in 1970
 2% in 1980
 0.2% in 1984
► Acceptability
► Institutionalized
► Alternate
Scenarios
of documentation
► Complexity
► Individualized
Advantages and Disadvantages of REMI
Advantages
Disadvantages
► REMI
► Data
has been tested
and documented
► The design and results
are similar to UPED
► Cost savings
► Continued local control
► Customizable
differences
 National vs state data
► Assumption
differences
► Model “irregularities”
► Demographics is more
of a byproduct
Key REMI Model Features
► Structural
linkages
model that captures all inter-industry
► Is
calibrated and estimated using national and
regional data
► Is
dynamic and predicts when results will occur
► Economic
results
► Is
cause & effect relationships explain
the leading policy analysis model in the U.S.
State of Utah Projections Process
Economic Base
Model
Cohort Component
Model
Integrated Economic and
Demographic Projections
REMI Model Structure
Output
Population & Labor
Supply
Labor & Capital Demand
Wages, Prices, & Profits
Market
Shares
2005 Baseline
Assumptions/Process
Assumptions
Growth Analysis
► Population
growth is a combination of migration
and natural increase.
► Employment
► National
drives migration.
employment is projected based on U.S.
Census Bureau population projections.
Fertility Rates for Utah and the U.S.
4.5
4.3
4.0
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.5
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.5
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Utah
2000
2010
2020
2030
United States
2040
2050
Components of Change
1950-2004
►
Migration
contributed 22% of
population increase
from 1950 – 2004
►
During the 1990s,
migration rose to
36%.
►
Migration projected
to be 26% from
2005 – 2035
78%
22%
Migration
Natural Increase
Process
Utah’s Share of National Employment
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.4%
The employment projection is
based on a trend analysis of Utah’s
historical share of national
employment.
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049
Actual
Projected
Trend 1969-2002
Trend 1987-2000
2005 Baseline Process
► Begin
with the state model
 Incorporate employment using employment
update
 Incorporate fertility assumptions using policy
variable selection
► Disaggregate
to the counties using the multi
region county model
► Testing and review to assure believability
Washington County
Population Growth Analysis
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
1950
1955
1960
1965
Annual Growth Rate
30 Year AARC
1970
1975
Ten Year Average
20 Year AARC
1980
1985
50 Year AARC
10 Year AARC
1990
1995
40 Year AARC
2000
700,000
7.0%
600,000
6.0%
500,000
5.0%
400,000
4.0%
300,000
3.0%
200,000
2.0%
100,000
1.0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Population
2030
Growth Rate
2035
2040
2045
0.0%
2050
Growth Rate
Population...
Washington County
Population Growth
2005 Baseline
Results
Employment
Employment Growth by Decade
for Utah and the U.S.
Average Annual Rate of Change ...
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
State of Utah
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
1990s
2000s
2010s
United States
2020s
2030s
2040s
SIC Major Industries in Utah:
1969 to 2035
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
Services
Government
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
TCPU
Trade
FIRE
Source: Provisional 2004 Baseline Projections, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
2019
2024
2029
2034
Construction
NAICS Major Industries in Utah:
2001-2050
900,000
Employment by Industry
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2000
2010
Natural Resources and Mining
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Professional & Business Services
Other Services
2020
Construction
Information
Education & Health Services
Government
2030
2040
Manufacturing
Financial Activity
Leisure & Hospitality
2050
Location Quotients:
State Employment
1.40
Employment by Industry
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
2000
2010
Natural Resources and Mining
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Professional & Business Services
Other Services
2020
Construction
Information
Education & Health Services
Government
2030
2040
Manufacturing
Financial Activity
Leisure & Hospitality
2050
Utah Employment by Industry as a
Share of Total State Employment
2006
T ra de , T ra ns .,
Ut ilit ie s
17 %
2050
Inf o rm a t io n F ina nc ia l
A c t iv it y
2%
10 %
T rade, T rans.,
Ut ilit ies
13%
P ro f e s s io na l
& B us ine s s
S e rv ic e s
13 %
M a nuf a c t uring
8%
Inf o rm at io n
1%
F inancial
A ct ivit y
8%
P ro f essio nal
& B usiness
S ervices
16%
M anuf act uring
8%
C o nst ruct io n
6%
C o ns t ruc t io n
7%
E duc a t io n &
H e a lt h
S e rv ic e s
11%
M ining
2%
G o v e rnm e nt
15 %
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
O t he r
S e rv ic e s
6%
Le is ure &
H o s pit a lit y
9%
M ining
1%
G o vernm ent
11%
O t her
S ervices Leisure &
5%
H o spit alit y
7%
E ducat io n &
H ealt h
S ervices
24%
2005 Baseline
Results
Population
A 100 Year Look at
Utah’s Population
Utah Population 1950 to 2050
5,368,567
4,701,369
Growth
4,086,319
3,486,218
2,833,337
2,246,553
1,722,850
1,461,037
688,862
1950
890,627
1960
1,059,273
1970
1980
1990
2000
Sources: Historical, U.S. Census Bureau; Projected, 2005 Baseline Projections
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
State of Utah Components of
Population Change
80
70
Persons (In Thousands)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
1950
1960
1970
Net Migration
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
1980
1990
2000
Natural Increase
2010
2020
2030
Total Population Change
2040
2050
Projected Median Age for
Utah and the United States
44
40
36
37.0
36.2
35.4
31.9
32.5
39.1
33.3
39.1
34.0
30.2
32
28
39.0
38.0
27.2
28.5
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
2000
2005
2010
State of Utah
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
2020
United States
2030
2040
2050
Utah’s Changing Age Structure
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5- 9
0- 4
200,000
Male
15 0 , 0 0 0
Female
10 0 , 0 0 0
50,000
0
Source: Provisional 2004 Baseline Projections, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
50,000
10 0 , 0 0 0
15 0 , 0 0 0
2000
200,000
2030
Utah’s Changing Age Structure
8 5+
80-84
75- 79
Female
Male
70 - 74
6 5- 6 9
60-64
55- 59
50 - 54
4 5- 4 9
40-44
3 5- 3 9
30-34
2 5- 2 9
20-24
15- 19
10 - 14
5- 9
0-4
2 50 , 0 0 0
150 , 0 0 0
50 , 0 0 0
50 , 0 0 0
150 , 0 0 0
2 50 , 0 0 0
Population
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
2000
2050
Growth of School-Age Population:
2000 to 2030
1,000,000
3.0%
900,000
2.5%
700,000
2.0%
600,000
500,000
1.5%
400,000
1.0%
300,000
200,000
Population
0.5%
Growth Rate
100,000
0
2000
2005
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
2010
2015
2020
2025
0.0%
2030
Annual Growth Rate Ages 5-17
Population Ages 5-17
800,000
Growth of 65 and Older Age Group:
2000 to 2030
600,000
5.0%
4.5%
Population Ages 65 and Older
4.0%
3.5%
400,000
3.0%
300,000
2.5%
2.0%
200,000
1.5%
1.0%
100,000
Population
Growth Rate
0.5%
0
2000
2005
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
2010
2015
2020
2025
0.0%
2030
Annual Growth Rate Ages 65 and Older
500,000
Age Group Growth Rate Comparison
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
5 to 17 Age Group
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
65 and Older Age Group
Total Population
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0.0%
Historical and Projected Dependency Ratios
for Utah and the U.S.
90
85
Dependency Ratio
80
75
70
65
60
55
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
State of Utah
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
2025
2030
United States
2035
2040
2045
2050
Utah Dependency Ratios: 1990 to 2050
100
90
0-4
5 - 17
65+
80
70
16
18
23
27
34
14
14
38
36
38
37
37
38
18
16
16
16
16
16
16
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
60
50
40
48
30
20
10
0
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
U.S. Dependency Ratios: 1990 to 2050
100
90
0-4
5 - 17
65+
80
70
60
50
27
35
36
37
20
20
21
29
30
27
29
30
30
30
12
11
11
11
12
12
12
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
40
30
20
10
0
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB.
Population by Multi-County District:
1940 to 2030
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1940
1950
1960
Uintah Basin MCD
Southwest MCD
Source: 2005 Baseline Projections, GOPB
1970
1980
Southeast MCD
Mountainland MCD
1990
2000
2010
Central MCD
Wasatch Front MCD
2020
2030
Bear River MCD
2040
2050
Population Growth Rates
by Multi-County District: 2000 to 2050
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Bear River
Wasatch Front
Mountainland
Central
Uintah Basin
Southeast
State of Utah
United States
Source: Provisional 2004 Baseline Projections, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
2045
Southwest
2050
Utah Population
Annual Average
Growth Rates
By County
2000 to 2050
Cache
Rich
2.2
Box Elder
1.7
0.7
Weber 1.3
Morgan
Davis 1.1
3.8
3.0
Salt Lake
Tooele
1.2
2.6
Wasatch
2.9 Duchesne
1.2
Utah
1.0
Juab
State Average = 1.8%
Daggett 0.7
Summit
Uintah
0.5
Carbon
1.5
0.9
Sanpete
1.0
Millard
1.7
Increase of 2.9 or Greater
Sevier
Emery
0.6
Grand
0.4
0.9
Increase of 1.8 to 2.8
Increase of 1.0 to 1.7
Change of less than 1.0
Beaver
2.1
Piute
Wayne
0.7
1.2
Iron
Garfield
2.3
Washington
3.9
1.0
Kane
1.4
San Juan
0.6
Summary
► Utah
has a long history of producing timely and
accurate long term economic and demographic
projections
► Utah
has higher rates of economic and population
growth than the nation.
► While
Utah is becoming more like the nation, it will
continue to have unique demographic
characteristics that set it apart.
► The
REMI models enable Utah to continue to
produce quality population projections at the local
level
Robert Spendlove
Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
E210 State Capitol Complex
Salt Lake City, UT 84114
[email protected]
801-538-1027
www.governor.utah.gov