Transcript Document

Module 2 Introduction
Context
Content Area: Hypothesis Generation
Essential Question (Generic): What hypotheses might explain the distribution of healthrelated events or states?
Essential Question (Drug Abuse Specific): What hypotheses might explain drug abuse?
Enduring Epidemiological Understanding: Clues for formulating hypotheses can be found
by observing the way a health-related condition or behavior is distributed in a population.
Synopsis
In Module 2, students explore how descriptive epidemiological information on person,
place, and time (PPT) are used to generate hypotheses to explain “why” a health-related
event or state has occurred. Students begin to uncover and develop the following
epidemiological concepts and skills: evaluating PPT information; developing hypotheses
to explain that distribution; understanding that there may be more than one credible
hypothesis; and recognizing when a particular hypothesis does NOT explain the PPT
information.
Lesson 2-1:
Lesson 2-2:
Lesson 2-3:
Lesson 2-4:
Lesson 2-5:
Overview of PPT and What’s My Hypothesis?
In the News
Drug Abuse by “Person” Race / Ethnicity
Drug Abuse by “Place” States in USA
Drug Abuse by “Time” Boundary Effect
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Module 2 - Hypothesis Generation
Lesson 2-2 In the News
Content
• Continuation of themes of using person, place, and time (PPT) to describe
how a disease or other health-related condition is described in a population
• Review of definition of “hypothesis” and explanation of how PPT is used to
generate “educated guesses” based on observation
• Use of news reports to give students practice in sorting clues into “person,
place, and time” and identifying hypotheses
Big Ideas
• Person, place, and time (PPT) describes a disease or other health-related
condition in terms of “who, where, and when”
• PPT information often leads to more than one reasonable hypothesis
• Some news reports give information about PPT and discuss hypotheses
• Hypothesis statements in epidemiology should include: 1) the population to
be compared; 2) the hypothesized cause; and 3) the hypothesized health
effect or behavior.
This project is supported by a Science Education Drug Abuse Partnership Award, Grant Number 1R24DA016357-01,
from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health.
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Where are we?
Essential Questions
Enduring Understandings
1.
How is this disease
distributed?
Health-related conditions and behaviors are not distributed uniformly
in a population. They have unique distributions that can be described
by how they are distributed in terms of person, place, and time.
2.
What hypotheses might
explain the distribution of
disease?
Clues for formulating hypotheses can be found by observing the way
a health-related condition or behavior is distributed in a population.
3.
Is there an association
between the
hypothesized cause and
the disease?
Causal hypotheses can be tested by observing exposures and
diseases of people as they go about their daily lives. Information
from these observational studies can be used to make and compare
rates and identify associations.
4.
Is the association
causal?
Causation is only one explanation for an association between an
exposure and a disease. Because observational studies are
complicated by factors not controlled by the observer, other
explanations also must be considered.
5.
What should be done
when preventable
causes of disease are
found?
Policy decisions are based on more than the scientific evidence.
Because of competing values - social, economic, ethical,
environmental, cultural, and political factors may also be considered.
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Review
Descriptive Epidemiology
Study of the distribution of a disease
or other health-related condition
Uses epidemiological characteristics
of Person, Place, and Time (PPT)
Basis for formulating hypotheses
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Review - Descriptive Epidemiology
PPT Sheet
Person:
Place:
Time:
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Review - Definition of Hypotheses
An educated guess
An unproven idea,
based on observation or reasoning,
that can be supported or refuted
through investigation
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
In The News
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
“Inhalant Abuse on the Rise Among Children”
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Sample Article
Inhalant Abuse on the Rise Among Children
by
Shankar Vedantam, Washington Post, January 24, 2005; p. A06
Excerpts:
Diane Stem of Old Hickory, Tenn., vividly remembers the day she was
called home by her distraught husband and daughter: Her 16-year-old
son, Ricky Joe Stem Jr., had been found dead in the house with a
plastic bag over his head. He had been sniffing Freon from the house's
air-conditioning system . . .
. . . . . A hidden epidemic is gaining momentum in America, experts say.
Children as young as fourth-graders are deliberately inhaling the fumes
of dangerous chemicals from a variety of household and office
products. Inhalants, as they are known, are widely available and hard
to detect, and are fueling a dangerous trend: The most reliable annual
survey of drug use among children has found that inhalants are the one
group of drugs in which abuse is on the rise . . .
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Disease or Other Health-Related Event
Descriptive Epidemiologic Clues
Person
Place
Time
All parts
of
Children as America-in
all parts
of theDecember
2001
young as 4th countryAmerica
graders Brain, Heart,
June 2001
Kidney, Liver
Brain, Heart,
December
2001
Kidney,
Liver
June 2001
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Educated Guesses
Hypotheses
Anti-inhalant campaigns might unintentionally
suggest the idea, or specific techniques,
to children who do not know about them
Ignorance may be the bigger problem
Parents seem to be in the dark
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Stating Educated Guesses as Hypotheses
• The hypothesis will sound like a prediction
• Be sure to include: 1) the population to be compared; 2) the
hypothesized cause; and 3) the hypothesized health-related
effect (type and/or direction)
• Examples from previous slide and possible re-statements
“Anti-inhalant campaigns might
unintentionally suggest the idea, or
specific techniques, to children who
do not know about them.”
Already stated in hypothesis
language
“Ignorance may be the bigger
problem.”
Teens’ misinformation or lack of
information on inhalants is a
cause of growing use
“Parent seem to be in the dark.”
Lack of parental awareness
contributes to a growing trend
of inhalant use among teens.
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Teams
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Presentation
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Presentation Rubric
Criteria
Participation
Got It
Getting It
Will Get It Soon
All team
Most team
Some team
members participate members participate members participate
Use of Epi Talk
All use is
appropriate
and accurate
Disease or
Health-Related Event
Identified
Descriptive
Epi Clues
All identified and
sorted correctly
Most identified and
sorted correctly
Some identified and
sorted correctly
Hypotheses
All identified
Most identified
Some identified
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Most use is
appropriate
and accurate
Some use is
appropriate
and accurate
Not
identified
In the News
Investigation
2-2
has ended.
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Re-Cap
Big Ideas in this Lesson (2-2)
•
Person, place, and time (PPT) describes a disease or
other health-related condition in terms of “who, where, and
when”
•
PPT information often leads to more than one reasonable
hypothesis
•
Some news reports give information about PPT and
discuss hypotheses
•
Hypothesis statements in epidemiology should include: 1)
the population to be compared; 2) the hypothesized
cause; and 3) the hypothesized health effect or behavior.
This project is supported by a Science Education Drug Abuse Partnership Award, Grant Number 1R24DA016357-01,
from the National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health.
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News
Next Lesson
DrugEpi 2-2 In the News