Transcript Detecon Presentation Template

White Paper
Television 3.0
New Impulses for
a Saturated Market
Ein schönes Photo mit Bezug zum
Kunden, Projekt, Thema oder Angebot
Keynote
6th Transatlantic Dialogue
Düsseldorf, March, 15th 2004
Member of
1.
Current situation of German TV-Market
Current situation of the German FreeTV Market is not only caused by
advertising crises, but also by a long-term stagnation of media performance.
Audience Share
of Public and Private TV
Comparation of Media Performance
and Advertising Revenues
Audience Share
100%
Revenue in bn €
9
Private
75%
Audience
Share
6
50%
0
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003

Stagnation over approximately 10 years

Growth in niche markets

Need of new impulses
Source: GfK, Nielsen, Detecon Research
Page 2
40%
Advertising
Revenues
3
Public
25%
Audience Share
60%
0
1983
1988
1993
1998
20%
2003
0%

Advertising budgets following media
performance

Decreasing revenues for three years

Dismal prospects of market
2.
Analogy of Music Industry
Seven Poor Years: The music market will depreciate 40% of volume. Cost
cutting strategies will not help to regain revenues.
German Music Revenues
3 bn €
historical
estimated
7 bearish years
estimated

Appr. 40% less
market volume

Fail of cost cutting
strategies

Absence of
online business
40 % Loss
2 bn €
1 bn €


File Sharing

Legal Downloads?

Professional Piracy

Offensive Pricing?

CD Writer

Opening up new
Sales Channels?
1998
1999
2000
2001
Source: PwC Global Media&Entertainment Outlook 2003-2007
Page 3
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
3.
Lack of Gross and Net Advertising Expenses
Intensified competition of advertising sales has increased discounts. Regain of
net revenues will be a challenge due to limitation by regulation and market.
Advertising Revenues of German TV Market
Revenue
Net Share
9 bn €
65%
6 bn €
Explosion of discounts over
the past several years

Net share falls down to 55%

Limited expansion of volume
by regulation of ad space

Regaining net revenues as a
challenge for the sales forces
 Reduction of discounts
 Increase of gross pricing
60%
3 bn €
55%
0 bn € 1997 1998
1999
Gross Revenue
Net Revenue
Net Share
Source: GfK, Nielsen, Detecon Research
Page 4

2000 2001
2002 50%
Detecon‘s Revenue Forecast of the German TV-Market
4.
Detecon estimates a moderate growth of revenues in total, but also in each
market segment. Alternative revenues will emerge significantly.
Prognosis of German TV-Revenues in 2006
Revenues 2003
CAGR
Revenues 2006
bn €
7
bn €
6
5
4
Call-In
3%
Shopping
17%
Call-In
6%
25.7 %
Shopping
21 %
6
5
4
17.4 %
3
2
Advertising
73%
Advertising
80%
3.1 %
1
Quelle: Detecon-Research
Page 5
2006
Growth in all media segments

Strong expansion of Call-In and
Teleshopping

Appr. 30% of FreeTV revenues in
innovative business
Conclusion
2
0
2003

3
1
0
Trends
There is no TV crises.
There are only wrong strategies.
5.
Technology Trends
Main technological trends are digitization of broadcast transmission and
privatization of cable networks.
Trends
Shares of TV reception
Terrestric
Satellite
6%
38 %
56 %
Cable

Digitization driven by cable providers and
Premiere (German PayTV Provider)

Growing Program Offerings (10 times)

Gaining customers by low entry prices
Conclusion
Share of digital offerings by provider
55 % Premiere (d-box)
analog
87 %
digital
13 %
45 % Others (DVB Receiver)
Mid-term establishment of low-cost
receivers without
 MHP
 Integrated
Source: Detecon Research
Page 6
interactivity
6.
Customer Trends
Media usage will converge, in future TV will not be a stand alone medium, but
will be complemented by additional devices like PC and mobile.
Daily Penetration of Target Groups
Penetration

TV
70%

Radio
60%

Internet

Newspaper

Teletext

Magazine
50%
40%
Trends

Growing usage of internet

TV usage remains on high level

Parallel usage of audiovisual media

Mobile TV offering via DVB-t from 2005
Conclusion
30%
20%
TV is not a stand alone medium, TV
consumption on several devices.
10%
Source: TimeBudget 6, SevenOne Media, forsa, Detecon Research
Page 7
Time Slot
Successful media offerings build on
cross-media usage.
7.
Implications for TV Offerings
Diversification of revenues increases revenues and decreases risks of TV
stations while a strong customer orientation is a must.
Challenges
Implications on TV Communication
Format
innovation:
seamless crossmedia,
intelligent, integrative

Diversification of revenues

Sales Orientation of Advertising

Seamless Integration of Call-In- and
Shopping-Elements into Format Concepts
Customer contact management
walk-in  registration  patronizing
Conclusion
CRM becomes a critical success factor of
media providers:
direct
(call-in &
shopping)
Source: Detecon Research
Page 8
Realization
of Revenues
Indirect
(classic advertising)
 Defining
customer value concept
 Building
a direct customer contact
 Managing
the customer process
8.
Definition of „Television 3.0“
Special Gift for the Twentieth birthday of privatized German TV-Market: Entering
a New Age – Customer Driven Television.
Layer of Demand
Television
1.0
Television
2.0
Television
3.0
“civic”
political driven
Provider
driven
Customer
driven

Interaction
 Involvement
 Individual-Interest

Fun
 Sensation
 Niche Interests

Information
 Knowledge
 Mass Entertainment
1950
Page 9
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1970
1980
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2010
Detecon International GmbH
Media & Online Practice
Contact: Cord Stukenberg
[email protected]
Triebstr. 32
D - 80993 München
Germany
Phone: +49 (0) 89 - 54 63 65 - 11
Fax:
+49 (0) 89 - 54 63 65 - 95
http://www.detecon.com
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