Transcript Document

British Columbia Post-Secondary
Supply Model
Labour Supply Monitoring and Forecasting Workshop
Vancouver - October 18, 2007
Jennifer Purcell, Ministry of Advanced Education
Anne Kittredge, BC Stats
Purpose
To provide an overview of the new BC Post-Secondary Supply
Model initiative, including:
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background and context;
objectives;
methodology;
core data requirements and sources; and,
timelines.
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Context
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BC’s economy has been performing at an exceptional level.
The provincial economy expanded 3.6 per cent in 2006.
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Strong economic growth has been accompanied by a
marked drop in the unemployment rate.
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At the same time, the size of the provincial pre-retirement
age group is growing. It is projected that by 2010, people
leaving the workforce in BC will exceed youth entrants.
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Strong economic growth combined with demographic shifts
in the workforce are contributing to skills imbalances.
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Context
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As skills development is vital in addressing imbalances, BC
has increased post-secondary funding to improve system
capacity and student access.
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However, the post-secondary system needs more lead time
to produce qualified workers for occupations in demand.
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It is critical for Government to anticipate imbalances and set
policies to encourage people to move into key fields of study
that meet emerging skill requirements.
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Objectives
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The BC post-secondary supply model will generate current
estimates and future projections of available skilled labour.
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Supply projections when compared and contrasted with
provincial demand projections will provide estimates of
potential imbalances for skilled occupations over a 10 year
outlook period.
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Approach
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The COPS School Leavers Model (SLM) serves as the
starting point for the design of the BC post-secondary
supply model.
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The COPS SLM provides projections of graduates by field of
study transitioning to the labour force, based on data
variables that are consistent across all provinces.
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The BC supply model will take advantage of data variables
available through administrative databases and surveys.
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Approach
The BC Post-Secondary Supply Model will:
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Develop projections of the potential number of future enrolees
and graduates by type of institution, credential, and field of
study;
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Develop projections of the potential number of future labour force
entrants produced through the public post-secondary system for
higher skill level occupations; and,
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Allow for the simulation of scenarios based on factors that impact
the production of graduates – demographics, economic
conditions, and government policy.
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Approach
The BC Post-Secondary Supply Model initiative will involve:
1. Development of a student transition model to track the
movement of each student from the secondary system through
each level of the post-secondary system.
2. Construction of an occupational transition model to project
the supply of new labour moving from the public postsecondary system to the workforce by probable occupational
destination.
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Approach
The BC Post-Secondary Supply Model initiative will involve:
3. Creation of a primary indicator of future occupational
imbalances by comparing the Occupational Transition Model
projections of new supply against COPS projections of new
demand.
4. Development of secondary indicators to shed light on
whether the primary indicator of future occupational
imbalances will actually materialize.
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Data Requirements
 The student transition model will be based on the
Student Transition Project (STP), a collaborative effort of
Education, Advanced Education, and the public postsecondary institutions.
 The STP has created a unique dataset that allows
researchers to track student transitions through two
education systems.
 A student level longitudinal file will be created from the STP
dataset and used for calculating the year-to-year transition
probabilities of students from the secondary system through
each year of a specific post-secondary program.
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Data Requirements
Example: Transition Probabilities of University 1st yr BA Enrolees
Left post-secondary system
Moved into College system
Remained in 1st Year BA
Moved up to 2nd Year BA
Moved to BSC Faculty
Moved to Social Work Faculty
Moved to “Other” Faculty
.15
.10
.05
.60
.03
.02
.05
 These year-to-year transition probabilities will then be applied to the most
current enrolment data for each year of a specific program to project the
potential size of the future post-secondary labour supply.
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Data Requirements

The occupational transition model will be created from BC
post-secondary outcomes survey data.
 BC outcomes surveys cover students completing studies at a
public post-secondary institutions.
 Detailed information is collected on their labour market
participation and the characteristics of their current job,
including occupation and whether or not the job is training
related.
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From this data, field-of-study to occupation transition coefficients
will be produced to project the most likely occupation structure of
graduates transitioning from the post-secondary system to the
workforce.
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Data Requirements
 Occupational imbalance indicators will be constructed from an
analysis of current and future labour market indicators.
 The primary indicators will be projections of net change in the
number of new jobs (demand) and the new skilled labour
produced by the post-secondary system (supply).
 Labour market adjustments can play a large role in moderating
occupation imbalances. Secondary indicators, covering wage
flexibility, occupational and geographic mobility, etc. will be
developed to aid analysts in their evaluation of the robustness of
the primary indicator.
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Model Output
 The intent is to build a data report for each occupation with the
primary indicators displayed as a 7-point scale. The scale will
represent various degrees of labour shortage or surplus. The
secondary indicators will be added to show its impact on the
primary labour imbalance.
 Finally, a summary Imbalance Index by occupation will be
constructed using a weighted average of the primary and
secondary indicators. Each occupation will be given an overall
rating of High, Medium, or Low of the likelihood of a future
surplus or shortage.
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Timelines
Phase 1: Build the transition projection model to track the
movement of each student through the two education
systems. (January 2008)
Phase 2: Explore the indicators of future imbalances for a small
group of occupations. (March 2008)
Phase 3: Evaluate Phases 1 and 2. (Fall 2008)
Phase 4: Develop indicators of future labour demand and
supply for all occupations. (March 2009)
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Input from Jurisdictions
 Through the Forum of Labour Market Ministers’ Labour
Market Information (LMI) Working Group and the COPS
Partnership, jurisdictions are exploring the development of
a provincial supply model design.
 HRSDC has shared the COPS SLM methodology paper with
BC to assist with the development of the provincial model.
 The LMI Working Group will monitor BC’s progress, and
develop a paper that examines the feasibility of expanding
the BC supply model initiative to other jurisdictions.
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Input from Jurisdictions
 BC will provide regular status updates on the project
through the FLMM LMI and COPS meetings.
 Questions and comments on the proposed methodology
and data sources required to run the BC supply model can
also be forwarded to [email protected]
 For more information about the STP Project
www.aved.gov.bc.ca/student_transitions/
 For more information about the student outcomes projects
www.aved.gov.bc.ca/surveys
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