Transcript Global economic and financial conditions

Australia and China – Grasping
Opportunities in an Uncertain World
Dr Martin Parkinson PSM
Secretary
The Treasury
Chart 1: GDP per capita
(Per cent of OECD -15 average)
120
Per cent
Per cent
120
Australia
100
100
Japan
80
80
60
60
South Korea
40
40
Malaysia
20
20
China
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
India
2005
Note: OECD -15 = Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden,
Switzerland, UK, US and Canada.
Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database and Treasury.
0
2010
Chart 2: Australia’s Terms of trade
(Index 1900-01 to 1999-00 = 100)
180
Index
Index
180
160
160
140
140
5-year centered moving average
120
120
100
100
80
80
Budget forecasts/
projections
60
1869-70
1894-95
1919-20
Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0, RBA and Treasury.
1944-45
1969-70
1994-95
60
2019-20
Chart 3: AUD-USD exchange rate
1.2
USD/AUD
USD/AUD
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
Sep-1983
Source: RBA.
Sep-1987
Sep-1991
Sep-1995
Sep-1999
Sep-2003
Sep-2007
0.4
Sep-2011
7
Chart 4: Mining and non-mining
investment intentions
Per cent of GDP
Per cent of GDP
6
7
6
Non-mining
5
5
4
4
3
3
Mining
2
2
1
1
0
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2007-08
2009-10
Note:Estimate
Estimatesforfor2011-12
2011-12from
fromABS
ABSCAPEX
CAPEXsurvey,
survey,and
andbased
basedononthe
thelong-run
long-runaverage
averagerealisation
realisationratios.
ratios.
Note:
Source:
Catalogue
Numbers
5206.0,
5625.0
and
Treasury.
Source:ABS
ABS
Catalogue
Numbers
5206.0,
5625.0
and
Treasury.
0
2011-12