Transcript Global Trends in Advanced Manufacturing

Global Trends in
Advanced Manufacturing
Nayanee Gupta
Science and Technology Policy Institute
IDA Science and Technology Policy
Institute
• Chartered by Congress in 1991
• Mission: to provide rigorous objective advice and
analysis to the Office of Science and Technology
Policy (OSTP) and other Executive Branch agencies,
offices, and councils
• Funding administered by the
National Science Foundation (NSF)
• IDA has managed STPI since 2003
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Concern
Declining US share of
Manufacturing Value
Added
* From “US Manufacturing in International
Perspective”, Mark Levinson, Congressional 3
Research Services, R42135
Study of Global Trends in Advanced
Manufacturing
• Chose four technology areas to conduct case studies
• Studied current and emerging global technology and
manufacturing trends
• Developed future scenarios for selected technology
areas
• Identified converging trends driving efficiencies
across the enterprise level for global manufacturing
industries
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Case Studies in four areas – two manufacturing
technologies and two emerging platform technologies
Microelectronics manufacturing
Integrated computational materials
engineering
Additive manufacturing
Synthetic biology
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The Advanced Manufacturing Enterprise
Science and R&D
Advancements and Convergence
of Technologies
Innovative
processes
Innovative
outputs
Enterprise-Level Concepts
(e.g. innovative business practices)
New Production Technologies and
Processes (e.g., IT and precision tools)
New/Improved
Products
Mass
Customized
Produced
Cheaper/Better/
Faster
Framework Conditions
High Performance
Workforce
Regulations (e.g.,
IP)
Cultural Factors
Industry standards
Demographics
Other
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Converging trends identified across global
manufacturing enterprises
1. Ubiquity of information technology
– Increasingly data-intensive and automated
– Growing role of Big Data analytics
2. Reliance on modeling and simulation across the
enterprise
3. Flexibility and mass customization (“rapid changeability”)
4. Innovations in global supply chain management
5. Support for sustainable and green manufacturing
………leading to tighter integration across the larger
manufacturing enterprise
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Increasingly data intensive and
automated
• Robotics and
automation
• Integrated sensing
and feedback control
environments
• Internet-of-Things across
the manufacturing
enterprise
• Data security
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Emerging Trend – Role of Data Analytics
• Big Data analytics allowed Rolls Royce
aircraft division to re-structure its
business model
– Correlations between operating
environments and part failures have
allowed an unprecedented level of
predictive maintenance
• Merck diagnosed production line
issues using data analytics on a public
cloud
– 15 billion calculations and more than
5.5 million batch-to-batch
comparisons run on Amazon Web
Services-run cloud infrastructure
used to diagnose vaccine
fermentation issues
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Emerging Trend – Role of Data Analytics
LNS Research survey of over 200 companies:
http://blog.lnsresearch.com/blog/bid/194972/Attitudes-on-How-Big-Data-will-AffectManufacturing-Performance-DATA
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Advanced modeling & simulation
capabilities
Multi-scale integrated models are transforming manufacturing
practices across R&D, design and technology development
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Reliance on modeling & simulation
• Use of modeling and simulation
replaces costly trial-and-error
experimentation on the manufacturing
floor and across the enterprise
– Crucial for new technology paradigms
– Reduces costs and design cycle time
– Facilitates innovation at the system level
• Department of Defense (DOD) study:
“for every dollar invested [in software
and computing infrastructure to
• Aberdeen survey of 550 manufacturers found
support simulation], the return on
that best-in-class manufacturers use extensive
predictive modeling and simulation
investment is between $6.78 and
• E.g., Caterpillar: design changes that once took
$12.92.”*
6–9 months to test and implement, now take
1 month with virtual reality technology
*D. Weatherington, Future of Unmanned Aircraft Systems in a
Fiscally Constrained Environment (11-S-1327), Report for U.S.
Department of Defense.
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Rapid changeability and
manufacturing agility
• “In response to global competition, including the rapid introduction of
new products and constantly varying product demand, companies
must design manufacturing systems that not only produce highquality products at low costs, but also allow for rapid response to
market changes and consumer needs”*
–
–
–
–
–
Reconfigurability
Flexibility
Transformability
Agility
Changeover ability
*Gola and Swic 2012,
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/f
ile/277164/ep6-technology-trends-relevant-to-manufacturing.pdf
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Flexibility and mass customization
• Efficient modification of
designs or production
processes
• Mass customization
through additive
manufacturing
• Produce many or a few
Ford Motor Company C1 platform produces 10 vehicle types
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Innovation in global supply-chain
management
• Increasing globalization
and complexity of supply
chains
• Dynamic risk analysis
• Technology Drivers:
– RFID
– Robotics
– Software
• Continuous feedback &
monitoring
• Strategic and Operation
decision making
•
Kiva Mobile-robotic Warehouse Automation System
http://www.kivasystems.com/solutions
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Moving towards sustainable / green
manufacturing
Sustainable manufacturing is:
“the creation of manufactured products
that use processes that are non-polluting,
conserve energy and natural resources,
and are economically sound and safe for
employees, communities, and
consumers.”
Department of Commerce, 2011
• Increasing costs of materials and energy
• Sustainability makes business sense
• Sustainability as a marketing tool
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Advanced Manufacturing Enterprise Overview
Global; increasing
rates of change;
demand-driven
Modeling and
Simulation
Supply Chain
Smart Factory
Overarching Concepts:
IT Ubiquity
Simulation-driven
Sustainability
Changeability
Distribution
Customer
Link product,
process, and
plant; high quality
Plant operators equipped with
decision support for ease of
optimizing sustainable production at
minimum cost
Real-time information flows;
secure communications; flexible
automation
Potential for mass customization;
rapid response to needs
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Examples of Manufacturing Enterprise
Concepts
• Proctor & Gamble’s Open Innovation program,
Connect and Develop
• Ford Motor Company’s sustainable
manufacturing
• Kiva’s warehouse automation system
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WHAT ROLE CAN POLICY PLAY FOR THE
FUTURE OF MANUFACTURING?
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Role for Policy:
A High Performance Workforce
• Cultural change in
attitude toward
manufacturing-related
education
• Workers at all levels will
require:
– IT and modeling and
simulation training
– Use of high precision tools
– Understand outputs from
large volumes of data
– Manufacturing and
business processes
– Engagement in lifelong
learning
Role for Policy
• Investment funding
– high cost of R&D; risk-averse climate
– existence of knowledge spillovers
– long timeframe to bring products to market
• Regulations for new sectors
• Global cooperation on ethics, environment
• Security of global supply chains and factory floor cyberinfrastructure (due to portability of designs and ease of
replication)
• Intellectual Property Regimes (IPR) across countries
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Emerging Global Trends in Advanced
Manufacturing
Report available at:
https://www.ida.org/~/media/Corporate/Files/Publications/
STPIPubs/ida-p-4603.ashx
17 July 2015
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EXTRAS
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Example paradigms driving manufacturing
technologies in several sectors
Advances in materials and fabrication methods, in
combination with computational sciences
• Computational modeling in design and engineering
• Flexible and customized manufacturing system
(“rapid changeability”)
• Miniaturization and energy efficiency
• Nanoscale self-assembly and biologically inspired
fabrication (still in R&D)
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Methods
• Defined advanced manufacturing
• Collected data and investigated trends for
technology areas of importance to advanced
manufacturing
• Reviewed roadmaps, literature, public
documents
• Interviewed ~90 experts, broadly and by
technology area
• Created advanced manufacturing scenarios
for 10 years and 20+ years
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Analysis
• Expert insight on future trend in technology area, 5, 10 and 20
years out
• Technology trends (process and product) in the near-, midand long-term (investments, state of R&D, road-mapping
activities at national and international levels)
• Issues that impact growth of manufacturing sector, such as
supply-chain issues; standards development
• Global developments and shifts in manufacturing sector due to
– Market size and demand; co-location with customer base
– Other location-specific factors
• Education, workforce training, human capital
• Regulation, infrastructure, ease of doing business
• Changing needs of global population, both from consumer and
national security perspective
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Background
• Task
– Identify emerging global trends in advanced
manufacturing
– Propose scenarios for advanced manufacturing 10
and 20 years in the future
• Concern
– Waning US competitiveness in the manufacturing
sector
– Relative increase in global R&D spending
– Increasing globalization of research, innovation and
manufacturing investment and activities
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