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Reducing fossil fuel demand in theatre

Using simple models to assess options

Content

• Intro and background • The SIT vision • BAE Systems • User Needs • Available Technology • Data gathering • Fully Burdened Cost of Energy Model • The study • Findings • Where next Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved 2

Background to the Vision - Real Demands

Technology Development

• Investment in renewable energy technologies Transactions $100 Billion estimated in 2006, (UN, New Energy Finance) Governments imposing regulations and incentives to utilise renewable energy

Climate Change Impact

• CO2 emissions forecast to increase by 55% by 2030 • Climate Change is causing changes in rainfall patterns, sea levels are rising, glaciers are retreating, arctic sea-ice is thinning and extreme weather is increasing

....and Shared Needs Across Sectors

Regulatory & CSR Targets Cost Security of Supply

Driving New Energy Solutions Energy Demand Increasing

• Energy demand predicted to increase more than 50% by 2030 and may triple by 2050 • Over 70% of this growth is from developing countries – shifting economic power to the East • Peak Oil. No increase in supply.

Causing prices of traditional energy sources to rise

Security of Supply Concerns

• Can the nation get enough fuel for the forces’ needs?

• Long-term tightening of supply among OPEC countries • EIA predicts that Fossil fuels running out: oil – 35 yrs? natural Gas - 60 yrs? & coal - 230yrs? Peak Oil?

• Is the military supply chain secure from enemy attack?

Civil Cost implications

There is commonality of needs in the military and civil sectors – however priorities will shift depending on objectives and specific situations

Military

SIT Capability Vision

Reducing operational dependency on fossil fuels – establish the options for supply of future forces Civilian market energy sources and technologies options Alternative system design and usage Alternative power management sources & approaches Fuel usage & energy needs vs. likely supply issues Mission management, training & infrastructure development Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved 4

Imperative for change

Clear energy needs across Defence Hypothesis that up to 15% of Defence Budget is energy related Senior level UK MoD sponsorship obtained for modelling energy supply Validated modelling and analysis Alignment with UK Defence Technology Plan Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved

Priorities

Save lives Reduce logistical ‘tail’ Save money

BAE Systems Approach

User Requirements Technology Watch Data Collection Modelling and Simulation Funded by BAE Systems Funded by MoD

Targeted Analysis 1 Targeted Analysis 2 Targeted Analysis 3

MoD Fossil Fuel use

Coherent Engagement and Support from all MoD Partners

Measures Security of Supply Activity Buildings & Infrastructure Cost Training Carbon Operations Military Effectiveness (e.g. FE@R and Wait time) Scenario

Operational Scenario Logistics MDAL Doctrine Organisation

Sources

ACDS Log Ops PJHQ DCDC

Stakeholders

Sustainable Procurement PO SIT DTIC DEC (ELS) Sc Gateways LE JSC DFG FLCs Air Sea Land DCDC Defence Estates DEC (GM) DE&S SUV IPT DE&S BISI IPT DE&S MPPS IPT Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved DE&S FSC IPT DE&S GSG E in C.

DRLC Joint Overseas PJHQ 104 Logs Bde JF Log C 9

Available technologies

HED Heat pumps

Reduce demand

Sustainable buildings Central power Smart Grid station management

Increase efficient generation

CHP

Technology

Nuclear

Non-fossil generation

Photovoltaics Wind

Pyrolysis Plant

Recycle energy

Anaerobic digester Scavenging

Fuel use on Op Herrick

Bastion Diesel £1.00/L

FOB NowZad Fire Bse Dwyer

Afghan Scenario-specific modelling

• Day by day simulation of the overland energy supply chain • Modelling variations in the supply chain efficiency • Understanding effort on contractor routes • Measuring security of supply

Scenario Specific Models e.g. simulations

Modelling the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy

A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset…

Input Data

Demand Data By year

Energy Supply Chain

Cost Model £ £ £ £ £ £ Activity Model(s) £ Training Operations Estates

Output Data

• Fully Burdened Cost • Logistical Burden • Effectiveness • Security of Supply • CO 2 & emissions •

Validated by MOD Scrutineers

Systems as best practice

” “

validation method should be disseminated within BAE

•

FBCE as a key sustainability metric

The Study

Activity 1 Generate & categorise options Activity 2 Activity 3 List of options Evaluate & downselect options Set of 5 packaged technology options Analyse options in detail Activity 4 Report Develop scenario specific tools Populate FBCE toolset

Final report

Option generation

Option Generation: Option Categorisation: Evaluation & Down Selection:

Identified 100+ concepts/technologies Scored options against a set of attributes Reviewed/grouped options into five packages

Package 0

Demand Reduction

Package 1 Package 2 Package 3 Package 4

Efficient Generation Vehicle Improvements Large Scale Renewable Generation Small Scale Renewable Generation

All options to exploit smart power management and improvements to expeditionary campaign infrastructure

Fully burdened cost savings

Fully burdened cost saving (Per Year)

2009 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Y ear

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Vehicle Improvements Near term demand reduaction Small Scale renewables Large scale renewables Efficient Generation 50% These savings are from the energy supply chain alone, keeping logistic method constant. The opportunities for optimising the supply chain would bring additional cost saving benefits Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved 17

Small Scale Renewables Package Results

Fuel saving

Reduction to 60% of current diesel demand in-theatre at full implementation (57% of baseline demand at main bases,17% at FOBs)

Reduced logistic effort

To deliver this reduced volume, you would save: • 518 jingly tanker journeys/year by Supreme • 243 close support tanker journeys/year on CLPs (assuming current storage capacity remains at FOBs but tankers are sent only on threshold)

Cost Saving

The Study requirement - satisfied

• Identified options for fuel savings in support of the Afghanistan Theatre.

• Conducted initial assessment of viability and benefits of options • Detailed assessment of impact on the fully burdened cost of energy • Recommendations made regarding technologies • that could be deployed forthwith • that could be Technology Demonstrators • that could be subject to further research; and • areas for further analysis. Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved 20

• Supporting the

Capability Vision - Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels

•

Working in partnership

with a pan-MOD stakeholder community •

D Scrutiny validated

approach and toolset with cross-domain application: Land – Current operations Air – RAF Base & aircraft fleet activities Sea – Alternative marine fuels •

Supporting Sustainable Procurement

– FBCE is a key sustainability metric referred to in the MOD Climate Change Strategy – Opportunity for FBCE to support Future Surface Combatant Assessment Phase

A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset…

“BAE Systems work has kick started the Energy & Power Management initiative and facilitated Paul Stein's vision”

David Wilkes, SIT Strategy

“Understanding the fully burdened cost of energy will be key to future acquisition decision making”

Annex A – Supporting Material

Major Assumptions

• • • • The figures consider only the military operated facilities in theatre at the time data were collected. These were the Main Operating Bases (MOBs): Bastion, Gereshk, Lashkagar and Kandahar Airfield; and the Forward Operating Bases (FOBs): Fire Base Dwyer, Delhi, Edinburgh, Inkerman, Now Zad, Robinson, and Sangin. As the operation has developed the size, location and names of the bases have changed. We have assumed that given no intervention aimed at saving energy, the annual energy demands for the lifetime of the operation will remain at 2008 levels. We have assumed that this current situation persists through the life of the Operation; that is the commitment and military strategy remain unchanged, so that energy demands remain constant. Further, we have assumed that the cost of fuel remains constant. We have assumed that the operation will last until at least 2020.

In the analysis of Packages we have assumed that the force protection levels are independent of the quantity of fuel being carried by the Combat Logistic Patrol and so constant. We have assumed that the total cost of the force protection for the CLP is allocated to the fully burdened fuel cost.

We have assumed that military effectiveness is not compromised provided that the bases maintain fuel stockpiles at mandated levels (that is they always have sufficient to cover immediate requirements). 25 Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved

Slide 1

Transcript Slide 1

Reducing fossil fuel demand in theatre

Using simple models to assess options

Content

Background to the Vision - Real Demands

SIT Capability Vision

Imperative for change

Priorities

Save lives Reduce logistical ‘tail’ Save money

BAE Systems Approach

MoD Fossil Fuel use

Available technologies

Reduce demand

Increase efficient generation

Technology

Non-fossil generation

Recycle energy

Fuel use on Op Herrick

Afghan Scenario-specific modelling

Modelling the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy

The Study

Option generation

Fully burdened cost savings

The Study requirement - satisfied

Annex A – Supporting Material

Major Assumptions

Directory