Transcript Technology vs. Behavior in Air Quality Improvement Why the

Air Pollution and
Transportation Policy
Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Should Be
Addressed by Technology, Not Behavior
Joel Schwartz
Visiting Fellow
American Enterprise Institute
June 25, 2005
Addressing Air Quality through
Transportation Policy
• 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments and 1991 ISTEA
– Require that transportation policy be constrained by air quality
goals
– Conformity: Regional transportation plans must “conform” to
regional air quality plans—that is, planned road projects must not
cause future motor vehicle emissions to exceed levels permitted
by air quality plans
• Lose federal transportation funds if fail to demonstrate conformity
– ISTEA and CAA “arguably made air quality the premier objective
of the nation’s surface transportation programs.”
• NEPA provides a separate means to challenge road
projects, potentially causing years of delay
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Two Ways to Reduce Motor Vehicle
Emissions
• Improve Technology
– Inherently cleaner cars
• Improve on existing gasoline technology
• Develop alternative fuel technologies
• Change Behavior
– Induce people to drive less
• Make driving more expensive, less convenient
• Provide alternative modes, such as transit
• Change land use to support alternatives and
discourage driving
– Induce people to maintain their cars better
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Only Improving Gasoline Technology Has
Been both Effective and Cost Effective
• Federal and state policies include all methods, but only
technology has been effective and only gasoline-based
technology has been cost effective for reducing motor
vehicle emissions
• Technology has stayed and will continue to stay way
ahead of increases in total driving
• Behavioral methods have been and continue to be a
costly failure, and a distraction from approaches that
would genuinely bring cleaner air faster
• Behavioral approaches are still popular, because they
serve anti-suburb, anti-automobile, and energy-rationing
goals of policymakers and activists
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Air Quality/Transportation/Land Use
Policy Link Goes Back to 1970s
•
Clean Air Act linked transportation and air quality
– 1970 Clean Air Act required transportation control plans
– Conformity in 1977; strengthened in 1990
•
States refused to implement TCPs in early 1970s. EPA was forced by court
order to promulgate federal TCPs in 1973
– SF Bay Area TCP: “a VMT reduction of 97 percent is necessary if the national
standard for photochemical oxidants is to be attained by 1977.”
– Plan included limits on construction of parking lots, parking surcharges, carpool
lanes, employer rideshare, transit, etc.
• EPA reluctantly included a provision for gasoline rationing, but said such
rationing would be needed to attain the standards in 1977
– Also vehicle inspection and retrofit programs
•
States still refused to implement the plans and EPA lacked institutional
capacity for federal implementation.
– Congress took away EPA’s authority to implement pricing or restrict parking
•
1977 CAA amendments added weak conformity requirement, but did not
require restrictions on personal travel
– Highway funds could be withheld only if states failed to submit an acceptable air
quality plan
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Huge Declines In Air Pollution
Despite Huge Increases in Driving
.
Annual NO2
1
8-hour CO
1-hour
ozone
Year
2000
1995
1990
0
1985
– Near full attainment for
PM10 and 1-hour ozone
– Only tougher new
standards—PM2.5 and 8hour ozone—remain an
attainment challenge
Annual SO2
1980
• Today, entire nation attains
federal standards for NO2,
SO2, and CO
Vehicle
Miles
1975
– PM2.5 declined nearly 50%
between 1980 and 2004
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Index (1975 = 1)
• Total VMT more than
doubled between 1975 and
2003, but air pollution of all
kinds declined substantially
• Fine particulate matter
measurements started later
Sources:
EPA, FDOT
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Vehicle Emissions Improvements Continue to
Stay Well Ahead of Growth
Emission trend in SF Bay Area Tunnel: Car/SUV VOC emission rate is dropping
about 13%/year; gasoline consumption is increasing about 2.7%/year in fastgrowing areas of California. So total VOC still declining more than 10%/year.
1.4
Index (1994=1) >
1.2
1.0
Gasoline
Consumption
(SJV)
0.8
Net VOC trend
0.6
Automobile VOC
(grams/gallon)
Caldecott Tunnel
0.4
0.2
0.0
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Sources: Kirchstetter,
Kean, Harley (UC
Berkeley), Caltrans.
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Fleet Turnover Will Continue to
Clean the Air
– Means fleet turnover will
continue to clean the air
as earlier models leave
the fleet
– SUVs and pickups
started out worse, but
improved more rapidly
than cars
• SUV/pickup emissions
have been same as
cars since 1996 model
year for VOC; 2001
model year for NOx
Model
Year
5
SUV/Pickup
Emissions (grams/mile) .
• At any given age, morerecent vehicle models
are cleaner than earlier
models
Car
4
1982
1984
1986
1988
3
1990
1992
2
1994
1996
1998
1
2000
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
LT
PC
Age (years)
Denver vehicle inspection data, 1996-2002
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Motor vehicle air pollution has been
solved as a long-term problem
• Improvements will continue
– Automobile emissions are
dropping about 10%/year as
fleet turns over to inherently
cleaner cars, SUVs, pickups
– Fleet meeting 2004 EPA
standards—the fleet that will
be on the road in 15-20
years—will be at least 90%
cleaner per-mile than current
average car
• Net reductions of more than
80%, even after accounting
for VMT growth
– Diesel truck standards were
tightened in 1998 and 2003.
Additional 90% reduction
required in 2007
• But anti-automobile activists
aren’t aware of the realworld data
– “sprawl and higher-emitting
SUVs are proliferating faster
than technological fixes can
keep up.” – David Goldberg,
Smart Growth America in the
Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2003
– More Highways, More Pollution,
2004 report by Public Interest
Research Group
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EPA’s Emissions Model Also Predicts
Near-Elimination of Emissions
• EPA’s MOBILE6
emissions model
prediction
• Recent data suggest
the model understates
future improvements
– Model overestimates
emissions of recent
models and
underestimates
emissions of older
models
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Can We Get there Faster?
If So, How?
• Worst 5% of automobiles produce 50% of
tailpipe volatile organic compound emissions
– Mainly middle-aged and older vehicles in poor repair
– Identify these vehicles on the road with remote
sensing and offer owners money to scrap
– There are only so many 1982 Buick Regals left on the
road. Once you scrap them, they’re gone for good.
• Cost would be no more than a few thousand
dollars per ton of ozone- and particulate-forming
emissions eliminated and probably less
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What About Behavioral Measures?
• Ineffective and very expensive
– Hundreds of billions in transit subsidies over the last few decades, but
transit’s market share continues to decline
• Even with proponents’ own cost and emissions numbers, light-rail costs more
than $1 million/ton of pollution eliminated; heavy rail costs more than
$100,000/ton
– Regulators normally don’t consider a measure cost effective unless is costs less than
about $10,000/ton
– Density does little to reduce driving: doubling density is associated with
10% decline in per-capita VMT
• Increase in congestion offsets some or all emission gains
– Indirect source fees miss the target: people who can afford to buy new
houses or shop at suburban malls don’t drive high-polluting cars
– Most other behavioral measures cost a few hundred thousand per ton:
e.g., bike/pedestrian paths, employer trip reduction.
• Europe’s experience also shows limits of behavioral policies
– Europe is experiencing rapid growth in per-capita driving and
suburbanization and declining transit market share, despite $5/gal
gasoline and better transit.
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Tying Transportation Policy to Behavioral
Air Quality Measures Imposes Huge Costs
• Diversion of hundreds of billions of dollars
to transportation modes that hardly
anyone chooses to use
• Increases in road congestion erode
benefits of automobile travel
• Unnecessary and undesirable constraints
on people’s lifestyle choices and mobility
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A Better Way
• Acknowledge that technology has solved the
long-term problem of motor vehicle air pollution
– Fleet turnover will eliminate most remaining motor
vehicle pollution
• Deal with near-term conformity problems by
addressing current high-polluting cars
– This is the quickest and cheapest way to near-term
emission reductions
• Focus transportation infrastructure and policy
decisions on people’s real transportation needs
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Contact information
• Joel Schwartz
• [email protected]
• 916.203.6309
• www.joelschwartz.com
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