Transcript スライド 1

A JAPAN THAT CAN SAY MAYBE:
The Foreign Policy of the DPJ
21th July, 2009
Woodrow Wilson International Center
Daniel Sneider, Associate Director for Research
Agenda
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5.
The Foreign Policy debate in Japan
The DPJ Internal Composition
The DPJ leadership and its views
DPJ Position on Key Issues
Conclusion: A Japan that can say Maybe
Evolution of Yoshida Doctrine
• End of the Cold War
• First Gulf War - Japan’s
failure to act
• First North Korean
nuclear crisis 1993-94
• Rise of China
• North Korean missile test
1998
• Second North Korean
nuclear crisis
• 9/11 and Iraq War
• US Global redeployment
• Minesweepers to Gulf
• PKO law (1992)
• Defense of areas
surrounding Japan
• Indian Ocean dispatch
• Iraq deployment
• Missile Defense
• Joint air defense
command
• JDA to Ministry
Towards a new consensus
• The “dual hedge” -- expand military
capability, use of force, global security role
AND improve relations with neighbors by
playing more active role in Asian
regionalism, environmental protection,
and other use of soft power.
• Maintain close alliance with US but
balance more with Asian tilt
The DPJ and foreign policy
• The DPJ - a coherent
foreign policy?
• What do DPJ leaders
think about foreign
policy?
• Key issues for the DPJ
• DPJ’s new “Goldlilocks
consensus”
DPJ Delegation
House of Representatives, 2009
The Left
The Right
The Center
The DPJ Leadership
Yukio Hatoyama, DPJ President
Katsuya Okada, DPJ Secretary General
Ichiro Ozawa, DPJ Acting President
Naoto Kan, DPJ Acting President
Yukio Hatoyama
• Grandson of former
PM Ichiro Hatoyama
• Left LDP in 1993 to
form Sakigake
• Member Hosokawa
cabinet 1993
• Co-leader of DPJ from
formation in 1996,
party head from 19992002
• Elected from his
father’s constituency
in Hokkaido in 1986
Hatoyama on use of force
• Supported limited use of
collective defense right to
defend ally, friendly
forces in field during UN
mission but rejected
dispatch for missions not
directly related to Japan’s
security without UN
authorization
“In approving Japan’s right
of collective defense,
there is a concern that
Japan will be entangled in
one-sided use of force by
the U.S. in a global
range…However, the right
of collective defense is
Japan’s right under
international law, and
does not mean Japan is
automatically obliged to
join missions with its
allies.” 2008
Katsuya Okada
• Elected from Mie in
1988, former
Takeshita faction, LDP
• Joined Ozawa and
Hata to form Shinseito
in 1993
• President of DPJ in
2004-2005
• Son of founder of
retail giant AEON
group
Okada on foreign policy
• Advocate of nuclear
disarmament and nonproliferation as key
element of Japan FP
• Calls for US and other
nuclear powers to
renounce first use, and
no use against nonnuclear states, creation of
nuclear-free zone in NEA
• “Priority should be given to
Asia first, and then to the
Japan-U.S. alliance.”
• “Japan should pursue
affluence in an East Asian
community, centering on the
Asian region.”
• “Decades have passed since
the SF treaty was signed, and
the postwar period has already
ended. It is now necessary to
discuss whether the
concentration of U.S. bases on
Okinawa is normal.” Sekai,
July, 2009
The DPJ Left
Yoshita Sengoku
Elected from Tokushima
for 5 terms
Former Socialist Party
leader
Former head of Policy
Affairs for DPJ
Critic of Ozawa
Sengoku on foreign policy
• Need to create a
• Supports PKO
system of “codeployments but not
governance” with US,
military forces in
China, Japan and
NATO style in
Korea, to deal with
Afghanistan
(Indian
energy, environment,
Ocean mission OK)
health, other issues
• Japan should focus on • Advocates creation of
PKO training center in
Asia, not on global
role
Asia, with support of
Korea and China
The DPJ Right
Seiji Maehara
Elected from Kyoto for 5
terms
Former LDP, left with
Hosokawa to form
Japan New Party in
1993
DPJ President 20052006
Defense expert, possible
Defense Minister
Maehara on foreign policy
• Strong supporter of USJapan alliance
• Opposed extension of
MSDF refueling
deployment as “untransparent” but supports
non-military role in Af
• Calls for new blueprint to
replace Futenma deal
• Supports exercise of right
of collective self-defense
clearly defined by law
“We must not turn China into an
enemy. Of course we must not
leave ourselves unprotected in
the face of China’s increasing
military power and to this end
we need to firmly maintain the
Japan-US alliance. However,
regarding China as an enemy
and creating an environment
that instigates a military
buildup would not be to the
advantage of anyone in this
region.”
2005 speech to AEI conference
The Kuromaku -- Ichiro Ozawa
• Elected from Iwate in
1969 (father’s seat)
• Former Home
Minister, Deputy chief
cab sec, Sec Gen of
LDP
• Formed Shinseito in
1993, Shinshinto
• Formed Jiyuto in 1998
• Merged with DPJ 2003
• DPJ President 20062009
Ozawa in “Blueprint” (1993)
• Given the two above
conditions -- that Japan’s
neighbors are still alarmed by
any independent action taken
by Japan, and that America
will be working actively for the
maintenance of peace -Japan’s path becomes selfevident. The most rational and
effective way for Japan to
contribute to world peace is by
cooperating with America.
• The view that the Japan-U.S.
Security Treaty has become
obsolete with the end of the
Cold War is shortsighted and
grievously mistaken.
• Japan must emphasize the
Japan-US relationship and
develop a SDF centered on the
United Nations…We must
make the leap from our
passive “exclusive defense
strategy” to a dynamic “peacebuilding strategy.”
Ozawa on US-Japan (2009 interview)
• Japan and US should
have a “more equal”
relationship
• “The problem is that the
Japanese government
doesn’t have its own
global policy. Its
governing rule is that
they should not offend
the US and spend as little
money as possible.”
• Opposed Iraq war
• “The illogic of the Bush
administration concerns
me the most. Even
though Iraq kept saying
they had no WMD,
Washington kept insisting
they had WMD. But in the
case of North Korea,
which admitted they had
WMD, Washington is
following a different
policy.”
Ozawa on defense issues
• Believes Japan should
bear primary burden of
self-defense, with US
support
• Deployment of SDF
overseas without UN
authorization is
unconstitutional and
beyond scope of selfdefense
• If UN sanction, Japan can
assist US military actions,
as in Afghanistan
• US forces in Japan that
are for purpose of
defending Asia should
remain -- ie 7th Fleet,
Kadena Air Base -- along
with surge facilities
• “Within that context, to
the extent that Japan can
replace the function of US
forces, isn’t it natural that
the US should have fewer
forces deployed in
Japan?”
DPJ Position on Key Issues
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Overseas deployment of SDF
US forces and bases in Japan
Relations with Asian neighbors
The “history” question
SDF Deployment Overseas
• DPJ supported initial
deployment of MSDF to Indian
Ocean
• Opposed extension of mission
on grounds it was being used
to support Iraq war, not
original “anti-terrorism”
mission
• Opposed Iraq war and SDF
deployment to Iraq
• Demands transparency on
deployments and Diet
authorization, including antipiracy mission
US Forces/Bases in Japan
• Supports Okinawa on opposing relocation of Futenma air
station to Camp Schwab and calls for re-examining Host
Nation support for realignment and SOFA
Ozawa on US forces
“It would be fine to
maintain Kadena
air base if it is
important for
regional defense.
But the helicopter
base at Futenma in
Okinawa is not
being used for that
purpose”
Interview with author,
March, 2009
“Japan as a member of Asia”
• Legacy of Asianist ideas
in Japan remains strong
• DPJ opposes “Big Japan”
version of Asianism but
harkens back to “Small
Nipponism” of Ishibashi
Tanzan
• Emphasis on improving
relations with China,
Korea and Southeast Asia
East Asian regionalism
• Key DPJ foreign policy advisors -- Terashima,
Tanaka -- are advocates of more active leadership
role in creating regional organization in East Asia
• Some interest in regional security structures in
East Asia
DPJ on History issues
• DPJ approach to history
issues is clear break from
LDP
• Revisionist views not held
• Murayama/Hosokawa as
precedents for DPJ on
history
• DPJ officially opposed to
visits to Yasukuni shrine,
calls for removal of Class
A war criminals
Ozawa on Gen Tamogami
• “It is a terrible thing,
very unfortunate. It is
because politicians
are
irresponsible…Officers
in the military are not
allowed to participate
in politics…It is the
same type of thinking
that we had in the
Showa period.”
Ozawa on Japan’s wartime aggression
First of all, in the war Japan
caused terrible harm to China
and others on the continent.
We need to first honestly
acknowledge that past. I
would immediately resolve the
Yasukuni problem. The Class-A
war criminals will be removed
from the shrine; that’s the
issue that caused the Emperor
to change his position about
visiting it. It would be just a
shrine for the war dead.
March, 2009
Foreign policy consensus in Japan
Dual hedge -growing security
role in alliance with
US and balancing
ties to China,
Korea, Asia -- is
growing consensus
in Japan that
crosses party lines
Consensus issues
• Hostile view of
North Korea
• Support for
missile defense
• Support for USJapan security
alliance
• Concern over
rising China
Obama and the DPJ
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• DPJ differences focused
on Bush administration
and its policies
• Policy convergence
between DPJ and Obama
administration is greater
than with LDP
• Some key areas of
convergence: nuclear
disarmament, Green
Deal, multilateralism
A Japan that can say Maybe
What does anti-American mean? If proAmerican means always saying yes to
Americans, certainly the DPJ is not proAmerican. If anti-Americanism is insisting on
the abolition of the alliance, then no one in
the DPJ is anti-American. Seven or eight
times out of ten, we will say yes to the United
States. But one or two times, we may say no,
or let’s see.
Kiyoshi Sugawa, DPJ Policy Research
Committee
Thank you