Transcript World Population Growth Through History

World Population Growth Through History
Billions
12
11
2100
10
9
Old
Stone
7 Age
8
New Stone Age
Bronze
Age
Iron
Age
6
Modern
Age
Middle
Ages
2000
Future
5
4
1975
3
1950
2
1
Black Death —The Plague
1900
1800
1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
World Population Growth, in Billions
Number of years to add each billion (year)
All of Human History
First Billion
Second
130 (1930)
30 (1960)
Third
Fourth
(1800)
15 (1975)
Fifth
12 (1987)
Sixth
12 (1999)
Seventh
14 (2013)
Eighth
14 (2027)
Ninth
21 (2048)
Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World
Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Annual Increase in World Population
Millions
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Growth in More, Less Developed Countries
Billions
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Less Developed Regions
3
2
1
0
1950
More Developed Regions
1970
1990
2010
2030
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
2050
Trends in Population Growth Worldwide
Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods
87
90
80
83
80
2
79
76
76
75
1.8
72
1.4
60
1.2
Millions
50
1
40
0.8
30
0.6
20
0.4
10
0.2
0
0
19801985
19851990
19901995
19952000
Net population added per year
20002005
20052010
20102015
20152020
Annual population growth rate
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Percent increase per year
1.6
70
Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide
• This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in
population per year.
• Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining
fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985,
when 87 million people were added each year).
• From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be
adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their
children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’
generations.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
World Population Clock
2005
Natural
Increase per
More
Developed
Countries
World
Less
Developed
Countries
Less
Developed
Countries
(less China)
Year
80,794,218
1,234,907
79,559,311
71,906,587
Day
221,354
3,383
217,971
197,004
154
2
151
137
Minute
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Projected Population Change, by Country
Percent Population Change, 2005-2050
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Birth rate
Natural
increase
Death rate
Time
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Stage 4
Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide
Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population
40
35
30
25
20
Natural Increase
15
10
5
0
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Birth rate
Death rate
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide
• Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic
development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and
distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And
women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s.
• Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow.
• Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates
decline.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide
Average number of children per woman, 2000-2005
China, Macao Special Administrative Region
China, Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region
Ukraine
Czech Republic
Slovakia
0.84
0.94
1.12
1.17
1.20
Slovenia
1.22
Republic of Korea
1.23
Republic of Moldova
1.23
Bulgaria
1.24
Belarus
1.24
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Women of Childbearing Age
Number of Women 15 to 49
Billions
1.98
2.06
1.76
1.32
0.86
0.62
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Women of Childbearing Age
• The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and
1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion.
• Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century,
according to the UN’s medium projections.
• The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners
will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue
to decline.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility
Worldwide
3
6
2.0
2
2.0
Billions
1.8
4
3
1.3
0.9
1
2
0.6
1
0
0
1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050
Women 15 to 49
Average number of children per woman
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Children per woman
5
Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility
• The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is
projected to continue to increase to 2050.
• The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to
continue to decline.
• Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute
number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total
number of women of childbearing age.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Population in Countries With Low Fertility
Decline or Growth, 2005-2050
Percent
Country (average number of children per woman)
Thailand (1.7)
13
10
China (1.6)
Armenia (1.3)
-6
-11
-23
8
Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)
Italy (1.3)
Russia (1.4)
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Population in Countries With Low Fertility
• All countries shown here have below “replacement level” childbearing—the level
required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to
grow and half are projected to decline by 2050.
• This disparity is due to the effects of population momentum. In populations with a
young age structure, even if fertility declines sharply, the numbers of children will
continue to increase for a generation as the cohorts of young people pass through their
reproductive years. Consequently, populations will continue to grow for decades even if
fertility is instantly reduced to replacement level. On the other hand, some low-fertility
countries are subject to negative population momentum. Their populations have aged
enough to result in relatively small cohorts under age 30, and therefore even if fertility
were to rise to replacement level, population size would decline for sometime.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction
Average number of children per woman
8.5
6.4
6.4
5.7
5.4
6.2
5.3
5.2
4.3
3.3
3.1
2.4
Egypt
India
2.5
2.1
Indonesia
Iran
1970-1975
Pakistan
2000-2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Turkey
Yemen
Patterns of Fertility Decline
Average number of children per woman
10
8
Uganda
6
Kenya
4
Colombia
2
South Korea
0
1950–1955
1960–1965
1970–1975
1980–1985
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
1990–1995
2000–2005
Reaching Replacement Fertility
Average number of children per woman
7.3
7.0
6.4
5.6
5.7
5.4
2.0
1.9
Azerbaijan
Chile
2.1
Iran
1960-1965
2.0
1.9
Mauritius
Thailand
2000-2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
2.0
Tunisia
Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region
Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
82
80
77
76
72
65
67
75
65
49
Africa
Asia
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
2000-2005
More Developed
Regions
2045-2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
World
Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region
• In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years —
up ten years from today.
• Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years.
• Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy
averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Trends in Urbanization, by Region
Urban Population
85
Percent
82
76
74
61
55
54
53
47
42
37
37
29
17
15
World
Africa
Asia
1950
2000
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
More
Developed
Regions
2030
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Trends in Urbanization, by Region
• Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed
regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is
urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030,
however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent.
• By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Largest Cities, Worldwide
Millions
1950
2000
2015
36
34
21
17
11
23
18
12
8
London Tokyo
New
York
Sao Mexico Tokyo
Paulo City
Delhi Mumbai Tokyo
(Bombay)
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Largest Cities, Worldwide
• The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly, and they are shifting from the more
developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1950 the three largest cities were in
more developed countries; by 2000, only Tokyo remained in the top three.
• In 1950, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 12 million.
By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with triple this population size:
36 million.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Urbanization in Central America
Population Living in Urban Areas
Percent
64
62
60
49
39
39
49
47
60
48
36
29
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
1970
Honduras
Nicaragua
Panama
2010
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Urbanization in Central America
• Central American countries are urbanizing rapidly, at a pace similar to that of their South
American neighbors 20 years earlier. Sixty percent or more of the population in Costa Rica, El
Salvador, Nicaragua, and Panama is projected to be urban by 2010; the projection for Central
America as a whole is 71 percent.
• South America has nearly the highest rate of urbanization of any world region, projected to
achieve 84 percent by 2010 (virtually tied with Northern Europe).
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Age Distribution of the World’s Population
Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005
Millions
Less Developed
Regions
More Developed
Regions
Age
Male
300 200 100
Female
0
100 200 300
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
300
100
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Female
100
300
Notes on Age Distribution of the World’s Population
• Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger
populations than more developed countries.
• Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast, less
than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15.
• Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the
age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents.
• Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of
childbearing in recent decades.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Trends in Aging, by World Region
Population Ages 65 and Older
Percent
21
14
11
10
7
6
3
World
10
6
4
Africa
Asia
2000
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
More Developed
Regions
2025
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Trends in Aging, by World Region
• By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be ages 65 and
older.
• By 2025, one-tenth of the world’s population will be over age 65.
• Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 6 percent in
2000 to 10 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase in just 25 years:
from about 216 million to about 480 million older people.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Women and Aging
Projected World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025
Percent
50
50
All Ages
37
46
63
54
Ages 60+
Women
Ages 80+
Men
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Women and Aging
• The figure above depicts what demographers refer to as the feminization of aging. Although
women make up half of world population, by the end of the next quarter century, they will
account for more than half (54 percent) of people ages 60 and older, and 63 percent of very old
people (80 and older).
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Adult Literacy, by Region
Literacy Rates, by Sex, 2000-2004
Percent
89
87
91
86
77
70
55
53
World
77
73
Sub-Saharan Latin America
Africa
and the
Caribbean
Female
Asia
Arab States
Male
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics: accessed online at
www.uis.unesco.org/TEMPLATE/html/Exceltables/education/Literacy_Regional_April2006.xls on May 21, 2006.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Adult Literacy, by Region
• Nearly all men and women in more developed regions can read and write.
• However, literacy rates are lower in the less developed regions. Women’s literacy rates
in particular vary significantly by region: from 53 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, to 73
percent in Asia, to 89 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean.
• Overall, more men than women are literate. This is especially striking in the Arab
states, where more than three-fourths of men but about half of all women are literate.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Ratio of Workers to Dependents, by Region
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Africa
1990
Asia
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Latin America and the Caribbean
Note: People 15 to 64 are considered to be workers; people 14 and younger and those over 65 are considered to
be dependents.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries
1997-2004*
Physicians per 1,000 people
Cuba
5.9
Greece
4.4
U.S.
2.3
Jordan
2.0
1.6
China
Mexico
1.5
Bolivia
Bangladesh
Cambodia
Mali
1.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
* Data are for the most recent year available for each country.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau
Notes on Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries
• Population growth can affect a country’s capacity to address the health needs
of its people through trained personnel and accessible health facilities.
• Access to health services varies greatly from country to country. In Greece,
for example, there are 4.4 doctors for every 1,000 people.
• This is over 20 times higher than in Cambodia, which has only 0.2 doctors for
every 1,000 people.
© 2006 Population Reference Bureau