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Energy Security: The Role for Nuclear Energy Jor-Shan Choi Professor, G-COE Project Nuclear Engineering & Management Department Tokyo University, Japan 81-3-5841-2954 Choi@lnuclear .jp 4th Meeting of the CSCAP Study Group on Energy Security Empire Hotel, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei July 8-9, 2008 Presentation Outline • Current Status • Why nuclear and why now? • Key Issues for nuclear power development • Toward a New Nuclear Regime • A New Vision Nuclear Capacity (2008) in the World* 104 in the US 59 in France 439 nuclear power plants 3 countries hold ½ of operating plants - US (104) France (59), and Japan (55) 5 nuclear weapons countries also account for >50% of all operating plants * Taken from Power Reactor Information system, IAEA 55 in JAPAN Why Nuclear and Why Now 1) Oil and gas price surge 2) Environmental concerns Carbon concentration Temperatures Why nuclear and why now 3) Energy Security 4) Increased Living Standard Oil and gas supply disruptions Infrastructural security Shipping chokepoints Why Nuclear and Why Now Nuclear energy, relative to fossil fuels, contributes little to greenhouse gas emissions Relative to oil and gas, the ability to stockpile uranium offers greater assurance of weathering potential cutoffs Nuclear energy is a proven technology which can provide a large scale electricity generation base for lifting the standard of living in many countries without emitting green house gases and further damaging the global environment Nuclear energy can also help offset transportation emissions now by supporting hybrid cars, and in the future, through the production of hydrogen Uranium Spot Prices 2007 - 2008 Generations of Nuclear Energy Generation III+ Generation III Generation I Early Prototypes - Shippingport - Dresden - Magnox 1950 1960 Gen I Generation II Generation IV Revolutionary Designs Evolutionary Designs Advanced LWRs Commercial Power - CANDU 6 - System 80+ - AP600 - PWRs - BWRs - CANDU 1970 1980 Gen II 1990 2000 Gen III - ABWR - ACR1000 - AP1000 - APWR - EPR - ESBWR 2010 2020 Gen III+ - Safe - Sustainable - Economical - Proliferation Resistant and Physically Secure 2030 Gen IV http://www.gen-4.org/Technology/evolution.htm Courtesy of M. Senzaki of JAEA Design Improvement and High Availability Standardized design and Cumulative operation experience Higher Availability Factor Passive Safety Systems Eliminate Components Simplify Safety Systems Reduce Building Volumes Reduce Costs Key Issues for Nuclear Energy Development Costs/Financing Nuclear safety and security Human resource and infrastructural development Spent fuel and waste management Nuclear non-proliferation Costs and Financing - “It’s the economics” In the past few decades, nuclear power has proven to be poor investments, producing far more expensive electricity than originally promised Nuclear generators are expensive to build, but their fuel costs are low Combined-cycle gas plants are far less expensive to build, but their fuel costs are much higher Intermittent technologies like wind and solar produce less power over time With the inclusion of CO2 charges (i.e., carbon tax), the nuclear plant will cost less than combined-cycle gas plant and coal plant in the US* • In the US, the Advanced Energy Initiative of 2006 offered financial incentive for new plant construction that employs new reactors and technologies • New financial arrangement needed for Asian Pacific region * US Congressional Research Council Study, 2007 Nuclear Safety and Security Since TMI and Chernobyl, the global nuclear power generation has maintain good safety record through stringent regulation, automated and redundant safety systems, and the industry’s commitment to comprehensive safety procedures Since 11 September 2001, the nuclear industry has substantially enhanced security at nuclear plants requiring extensive security measures in place to protect the facility from intruders Can these accidents happen again? How can a good safety culture be in-forced world-wide? Human Resource Development Tokyo University: Global COE Program Funding to Nuclear Engineering Programs in Universities Has Increased Infrastructural Development New nuclear infrastructure is highly optimized 1978: Plastic models on roll-around carts McGuire Nuclear Station Reactor Building Models. 2007: 4-D computer aided design and virtual walk-through GT-MHR Operating in a mature industry, the consortia work with their supply chains for major equipment to support the near-term deployment of Gen-III and Gen-III+ reactors The Crucial Role of Waste Management Provide a safe and secure disposition for Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) and Radioactive Wastes (HLW) Regional/international solutions driven by security considerations USDOE submitted a license application to USNRC on 3 June 2008 for Yucca Mountain as the US SNF and HLW repository Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Yucca Mountain Repositories and storage become instruments of security, more than utility dumping grounds Nuclear Non-Proliferation: IAEA safeguards (Pre-NPT, CSA, AP) To stop “Onward Proliferation”, i.e., spread of sensitive technologies (enrichment & reprocessing, E&R), and to prevent nuclear weapons-materials-capability to fall onto wrong hands, new proposals were made by: - M. El Baradei, DG, IAEA – limit E&R to international controls - G. W. Bush, US President – limit E&R to existing full-scale facilities - V. Putin, RF President – International Uranium Enrichment Center - Others “Business as usual” is no longer an acceptable option. A new nuclear regime is needed to deal with the non-proliferation and environmental risks Forming a global network of nuclear fuel cycle facilities* Reducing non-proliferation and waste burden Natural U Spent Fuel Storage PWR Spent fuel Spent fuel Conversion U Fuel reprocessing Enrichment Depleted U LEU fuel Fabrication Spent fuel fissile material s U fuel Fabrication HLW Pu TRU DUPIC fuel Fabrication MOX fuel Fabrication Repository Repro. U Fast Rx fuel Fabrication Fresh fuel transport Member Country 1 Member Country 2 Member Country 3 Member Country 4 …. Spent fuel transport • J. S. Choi, “An innovative fuel cycle concept with nonproliferation and waste considerations for small and medium sized reactors,” International Seminar on Status and Prospects for Small and Medium Sized Reactors, Cairo Egypt, May 27-31, 2001 A Global Network of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities • Is not necessarily a regional nuclear fuel cycle center • Does not need to be within a national boundary • Could be formed by framework of contractual agreements among companies and supported by their respective countries, • Is intended to provide a cradle-to-grave fuel cycle services to countries generating electricity for their citizen, • Nuclear fuel cycle facilities in the network must comply with international safety standards and safeguards requirements • Countries can benefit from nuclear energy without the burdens of nonproliferation and waste management, much like a country can provide air transportation to its citizens by operating airlines without the large investment in aircraft manufacturing Most fuel-cycle services are provided today except for long-term spent fuel storage and repository disposal. Regioanl/multilateral cooperation is needed for the network A New Vision Countries have access to nuclear power at market prices Nuclear fuel supplies are assured at competitive prices Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is returned* to appropriate countries for management and disposal Spread of sensitive fuel cycle technologies (Enrichment/reprocessing) reduced or eliminated * • The former USSR took spent fuel back from other countries • Russia currently takes spent fuel back from CIS countries • The US takes research reactor spent fuel from other countries • Can the Nuclear Weapons Countries do more? • Can the Uranium Producing Countries do more?