Transcript Document

Energy Security:
The Role for Nuclear Energy
Jor-Shan Choi
Professor, G-COE Project
Nuclear Engineering & Management Department
Tokyo University, Japan
81-3-5841-2954
Choi@lnuclear .jp
3rd Meeting of the CSCAP Study Group on Energy Security
News Plaza Hotel, Beijing, China
March 25-26, 2008
Presentation Outline
• Current Status
• What will the Nuclear Future be?
• Key Issues for nuclear power development
• The situation Today
• A New Vision – Toward a New Nuclear Regime
• Where we might go
Current status*
 439 nuclear power plants
 35 under construction
 USA 104 (1**), 787.2 TWh
 France 59, 418.6 TWh
 Japan 55 (1), 266.4*** TWh
 Russia 31 (7), 147.8 TWh
 China 11**** (6), 62.6 TWh
 India 17 (6), 15.6 TWh
(Parenthesis) = (# of unit under construction)
*
Taken from Power Reactor Information system, IAEA
As of 31 December 2007
** Watts Bar 2 construction resumed on 15 Oct. 2007
*** Lower than last year due to shutdown of 16 BWRs
**** Will have nuclear capacity of 40 GWs by 2020
Nuclear share of electricity (2006) in the world*
* Taken from Power Reactor Information system, IAEA
Expansion mainly in Asia*
New connections
Under
construction
0
5
10
All other
* Taken from Power Reactor Information system, IAEA
15
20
25
Far East & S. Asia
30
35
What will the Nuclear Future (20-40 years) be?
 I don’t know and neither do you

Need to look out 50+ years
 Some rather certain trends:




Population will grow – 6 billion to at least 7.5 billion in 2020
World primary energy needs will grow and electricity will grow faster
Fossil fuels in energy production and use will account for vast amount
of carbon emissions
U.S. plants (nuclear and fossil) will age, and some will retire (38GW
nuclear and 71GW fossil by 2015 (EIA))
 320GW of new U.S. capacity by 2015; 1/3 of new domestic
electricity plants through 2015 are needed simply as replacements
 Life extension of nuclear can be advantageous
Future energy growth
1) Increased energy demand
2) Environmental concerns
Carbon concentration
Temperatures
Key Issues for Nuclear Energy Development
 Economics/Financing
 Nuclear safety
 Security and proliferation concerns
 Spent fuel and waste management, environment
PLUS
 Acceptability
 Infrastructure
“It’s the economics”
 Nuclear is expensive to build, cheap to run
Comparison of Energy Density:
 New nuclear most attractive where
1 kWh
3 kWh
4 kWh
50,000 kWh
6 million kWh






energy demand growth is rapid
alternative resources are scarce
energy supply security a priority
reducing air pollution and GHGs a priority
financing can look longer-term
low risk premium
60 sq.m sun light
1 kg coal
1 kg gasoline
1 kg nat. uranium
1 kg plutonium
1 kg plutonium = sun light from
½ surface area of
Singapore
GEN III Reactors:
Areva EPR
Westinghouse AP1000
General Electric ABWR
AECL Candu ACR1000
Others
Competitiveness of new nuclear plant*
For new nuclear plant to be economically competitive with
combined-cycle natural-gas plants, the capital costs must be
reduced, or natural gas price be increased, or both
ALWR capital cost,
$/KWe
Electricity generation
cost, $/MWhr
Natural gas price to
CCGT, $/MMBTU
1,000
41.5
3.8
1,100
44.5
4.2
1,200
47.5
4.8
1,300
50.5
5.1
1,400
53.5
5.5
1,500
55.5
5.8
1,600
58.5
6.2
* Taken from “Atoms for Peace after 50 years: The new challenges and opportunities,” CGSR, LLNL, December 2003.
Comparison of electricity generating costs
Nuclear Safety


Nuclear power generation has an excellent safe-operation record
(as demonstrated by the high availability factor)
However, the nuclear industry also experienced two major accidents
in its operating history (Three-Mile Island in 1979, and Chernobyl in
1986)

Can these accidents happen again?

How can a good safety culture be in-forced world-wide?
Security and Proliferation Issues:
 Physical protection of nuclear installation
 Transportation of nuclear materials
 IAEA safeguards
 Spread of sensitive technologies
(enrichment/reprocessing)
 Requirement for underground repository
The Situation Today
 Growing interest on nuclear power
 Spread of sensitive fuel-cycle technologies
 Research reactor fuel
 No operating HLW/SNF repositories
 Growth of SNF

>230,000 MT worldwide, inventory grows at ~ 10,000 MT/yr

>45,000 MT in the U.S., inventory grows at ~ 2,500 MT/yr
 Many countries planning on SNF disposal
What are the concerns?
What are the opportunities?
A New Vision - A New Nuclear Regime

Proposals

IAEA Director General M. ElBaradei (Economist, 10/16/03)

US President G. Bush (Speech at NDU, 2/11/04)

IAEA Multinational Approach (MNA) to nuclear fuel cycle (2/22/05)

Others
1. J. S. Choi and T. Isaacs, “Toward a new nuclear regime,” ICAPP 03 Proceedings, Apr. 2003
2. V. Reis, M. Crozat, J. S. Choi, and R. Hill, “Nuclear fuel leasing, recycling and proliferation:
Modeling a global view,” Nuclear Technology, vol. 150, no.2, May 2005
3. E. Moniz, et. al, “Making the world safe for nuclear energy.”, a MIT paper.
4. Putin, System of International Fuel Cycle Center
5. World Nuclear Association, Ensuring Security of Supply of the International Fuel Cycle
6. Intergovernmental Working Group, Assurance of Fuel Supply through Multilateral mechanism
7. Japan, IAEA Standby Arrangements System for Assurance of Nuclear Fuel Supply
8. Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), 50M$ LEU Fuel Bank, under IAEA Auspices
9. Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP)
Forming a global network of nuclear fuel cycle facilities*
Reducing non-proliferation and waste burden
Natural U
Spent Fuel Storage
PWR
Spent fuel
Spent fuel
Conversion
U
Fuel
reprocessing
Enrichment
Depleted U
LEU fuel
Fabrication
Spent fuel
fissile
material
s
U fuel
Fabrication
HLW
Pu
TRU
DUPIC fuel
Fabrication
MOX fuel
Fabrication
Repository
Repro. U
Fast Rx fuel
Fabrication
Fresh fuel transport
Member
Country 1
Member
Country 2
Member
Country 3
Member
Country 4
….
Spent fuel transport
• J. S. Choi, “An innovative fuel cycle concept with nonproliferation and waste considerations for small and medium sized reactors,”
International Seminar on Status and Prospects for Small and Medium Sized Reactors, Cairo Egypt, May 27-31, 2001
A Global Network of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities
• Is not necessarily a regional nuclear fuel cycle center
• Does not need to be within a national boundary
• Could be formed by framework of contractual agreements
among companies (and countries in which companies are
operating)
• Is intended to provide a cradle-to-grave fuel cycle services to
countries wanting only nuclear electricity generation
• Nuclear fuel cycle facilities in the network must comply with
international safety standards and safeguards requirements
Most fuel-cycle services are provided today except for spent fuel
storage and waste disposal. Bilateral/multilateral cooperation are
needed to complete the network
Some Elements of a Vision
 Countries have access to nuclear power at market prices
 Nuclear fuel supplies are assured at competitive prices
 Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is returned to appropriate countries
for management and disposal under international control
 Spread of sensitive fuel cycle technologies
(Enrichment/reprocessing) reduced or eliminated
The Crucial Role of Waste Management
 Provide a secure home for
- Excess weapons materials
- Spent Nuclear Fuel
 Regional/international solutions driven by security
considerations
Repositories and storage become
instruments of security, more than utility
dumping grounds
Can a Spent Fuel Take-Back Initiative Work?
Some Caveats
 Costs and Capacity
 Public acceptance
 Legal considerations
Opportunities?
 Currently taking back research reactor spent fuel from
countries receiving US-origin fresh fuel
 Could it help the acceptance of repositories if take-back
contributes to important national security and international
stability dimensions?
Where We Might Go
 A new view on repository success
 Shared fuel cycle facilities
 Fresh fuel assurances
 Spent fuel take-back or take-away
 Regional repositories
 GNEP
?
Challenges
 What are the security risks for repositories?
 What is the role of IAEA?
 Should assurances be provided to avoid the spread of
enrichment/reprocessing?
 How to deal with concept of take-back or take-away?
 Is there a new bargain?
 Can we live in a nuclear have/have not world?
Tokyo University: Global COE Program
Nuclear Non-Proliferation
• To coexist with the peaceful use of nuclear energy
• To identify the technological and systematic problems