Transcript Document

AMBER/FFMP
Overview
COMET Basin Customization 02-03
06 August 2002
Robert S. Davis, Pittsburgh NWSWFO
AWIPS Flash Flood Monitoring
and Prediction (FFMP)
• AWIPS build 5.1.2 (Early 2002) the AMBER
implementation of FFMP using DHR.
• Requires NSSL CD of ArcView defined
watersheds and WSR-88D bin assignments.
• Provides graphic display of ABR and ABR–FFG
for time periods of 30,60,90,120,180,360 minutes.
• Provides line graph of ABR,ABR Rate, and FFG
for the same time periods.
• 1 level of streams supported
• FFMP small subset of AMBERGIS functionality.
FFMP Graphics
• County display of CWA-maximum ABR for
any stream in county displayed. Left click
on Fips code to get “stream display”.
• Stream display for a county- ABR for time
period selected displayed for each basin.
Left click on stream ID to get “line graph”.
• Line graph of ABR + ABR Rate + FFG
Worthville, PA Flash Flood
05 June 2002
Jefferson County, PA
FFMP Text Data on AWIPS
/data/fxa/radar/k@@@/ffmp
Where @@@ is your WSR-88D ID
FFMP file archiving
• ABR file is archived to hard disk on AWIPS for
current GMT day and previous day only.
• /data/fxa/radar/k@@@/ffmp/yyyymmdd +
yyyymmdd.index for a GMT day
• Index file holds the time for each volume scan.
• Date file holds the ABR data for each stream
(integer*2 data with a record length equal to 2
times the number of FFMP watersheds).
FFMP Basin Attributes
• /data/fxa/radar/k@@@/ffmp/basinList.dat
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/basinToCounty.dat
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/binToBasin.dat
• Radar bins are numbered consecutively
from 0 to 82799 starting with radial 0.5
degrees. Bin 0 = 0.5 degrees at 0.5 km, bin
230 = 1.5 degrees at 0.5km, etc.
basinList.dat
• First line in file is number of basins (5609)
• Basin ID number in FFMP display is
position in this file basin id =0 (2nd line), 1
(3rd line), 2 (4th line), 3 (5th line), etc.
• Pfafstetter ID
• Latitude/longitude of basin centroid
• Name of creek
binToBasin.dat
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First line is number of basins
Second line is data for watershed id=0
1st element (number of bins assigned)
Bin number for each assigned bin follows,
if 3 bins assigned to this stream, 3 bin
numbers will be listed.
• Last element: area of bin summation (km2)
basinToCounty.dat
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Number of counties on first line
Two letter state
County name
County Fips code
Number of streams assigned to this county
List of Basin Ids assigned to this county
County assigned by MDL lat/lon of centroid
Stream Basin
Definitions
National Basin Delineation
• 30Sep1999 – NWS agrees to fund the AMBER
National Basin Delineation project by NSSL for
all of the continental United States.
• ArcInfo used to define the watershed boundaries.
• USGS 1 arc second (30 m) DEM data supplied by
EROS Data Center.
• www.nssl.noaa.gov/teams/western/basins
• Continental U.S. completed June 2002.
NSSL Basins 18,488
Aggregated 12,784
Aggregate:
Clip all basins beyond 230 km
Eliminate all segments < 2 mi2
229.5 km
Range ring
FFMP Basins
5,608
NSSL CD
FFMP
Purpose of the Basin
Customization Course
• To describe the content of the NSSL dataset
(ArcView shapefiles and data attributes).
• To provide tools that allow the local
forecast office to modify, correct, or
enhance the NSSL set of defined basins.
• To demonstrate why modifications or
additions may enhance the application of
FFMP to the flash flood warning process.
Choices: Customization Options
• No Customization (used delivered cd)
• Minor Customization (add stream names,
make minor adjustments to basins to correct
errors) Must still run localization.
• Major Customization (add new streams,
divided existing streams)
• Paul’s procedure for hydrologic
connectivity, allows use of Paul’s tools.
Choices: Display options at WFO
• Display FFMP graphics as delivered
• Run Paul Jendrowski’s AMBER for more
stream layers, 7 AWIPS radar graphic
products including ABR rate + 6 user
selected time periods, AMBER browser,
and line graph of past 6 hours.
• Use ArcView as display for geographic
information.
Areal Mean Basin Estimated
Rainfall ( AMBER) 1990-2002
• All watersheds in county warning area are defined
to a Minimum Basin Area (MBA) of 2 mi2 to
show spatial rainfall distribution.
• The WSR-88D polar grid (1o by 1 km) is mapped
to the defined watersheds.
• Average Basin Rainfall (ABR) is computed for
each watershed every volume scan.
• An hourly ABR rate is determined from the single
volume scan (5-6 min.) of ABR.
AMBERGIS (2000 – 2002)
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Paul Jendrowski creation using ArcView.
ABR data computed and archived (5 min).
AWIPS ABR Rate display of radar umbrella.
AWIPS ABR graphic display of radar umbrella for
6 user selected time periods.
• Line graph of ABR, ABR Rate, and FFG for each
defined stream and rain gage.
• Nine layers of streams or rain gages supported.
• Alert for 3 user selected levels of ABR - FFG.
Graphical Radar
Rainfall
OHP – One hour rainfall
STP – Storm total rainfall
THP – Three hour rainfall
AMBER/FFMP
Digital Rainfall
AMBER/FFMP computes 5 minute
rainfall using WSR-88D precipitation
algorithm with Digital Hybrid Scan
Reflectivity (DHR) product as input.
Digital Hybrid Scan
Reflectivity (DHR)
• Time interval (5-6 minutes)
• Grid size (1 degree x 1 km)
• Reflectivity to the nearest 0.5 dBZ
DHR Grid Area (km2)
vs. Radar Range (km)
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0
50
100
150
200
DHR Digital Rainfall Estimate
2130 – 2135 UTC
Rainfall (in)
.16
.30
.38
.29
.14
.24
.39
.41
.37
.20
o
Grid size 1 x 1km
DHR Digital Rainfall Estimate
2130 – 2135 UTC
Rainfall (mm)
.16
.30
.38
.29
.14
.24
.39
.41
.37
.20
Watershed Boundary…compute ABR
Average Basin Rainfall = 0.29
2130 – 2135 UTC ABR (in)
.29
.29
.29
.29
.29
.29
.29
.29
.29
.29
Copy ABR back into DHR grid
for FFMP or AMBERGIS graphics
Average Basin Rainfall = 0.29
2130 – 2135 UTC ABR (in)
.16
.30
.38
.29
.14
.24
.39
.41
.37
.20
Divide watershed into segments??
Average Basin Rainfall = .29 in
2130 – 2135 UTC ABR (in)
.20
.37
.37
.25
.25
.20
.37
.37
.25
.25
Large variation of ABR in short distances!!
Flash Flood Index (FF)
FF = ABR - FFG
Determining the Flash Flood Threat
Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)
• ABR in a specific time period (1, 3 hours)
to initiate flooding on streams.
• Assumes stream at low flow level.
• Assumes no rainfall since data cutoff
• FFG is the amount of ABR needed to
produce threshold runoff (climatic average
runoff needed to start flooding of streams)
Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)
• FFG = TR + SM, where TR is the threshold
runoff and SM is the amount of ABR
needed to initiate runoff based on soil
moisture content.
• Threshold runoff is constant for all
watersheds 1.00” in three hours for most of
eastern U.S (0.75” for western PA + WV).
Ask your servicing RFC for your TR!!!
FF Index = ABR - FFG
ABR and FFG in inches
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FF0
FF1
FF2
FF3
FF4
FF5
ABR = FFG
ABR = FFG + 1.00 inches
ABR = FFG + 2.00 inches
ABR = FFG + 3.00 inches
ABR = FFG + 4.00 inches
ABR = FFG + 5.00 inches, etc
Noble County, OH
Almost a flash flood.
ABR-FFG = 0.40
12 June 2002
2235-2327 UTC
1-Hour FFG = 1.70
FFMP Graphics
vs.
Paul’s AMBER
Graphics
Little Pine Creek
Flash Flood
30 May 1986
ABR-FFG=3.5
Pine Creek
Watershed
68 mi2
1005
1006
1007
ID Name
Area
1000 L Pine Cr
8.3
1001 L Pine Cr
6.2
1002 Gourdhead Run 4.1
1003 Crouse Run
3.7
1004 Willow Run
4.3
1005 Montour Run
5.5
1006 NF Pine Cr
10.1
1007 Headwaters
13.9
1004
1003
Pine Creek
Flash Flood
Bucket Survey
(inches)
30 May 1986
1002
8 64
1000
1001
Allegheny
River
2
Little Pine Creek
30 May 1986 Area: 6.2 mi2
6
5
4
ABR(in)
ABR Rate
1hr FFG
3
2
1
Time (UTC)
2200
2140
2120
2100
2040
2020
2000
1940
1920
1900
0
Zion National Park
Flash Flood
27 July 1998
The Narrows Hiking Trail
North Fork
Virgin River
Deep Creek
Kolob Creek
Goose Creek
3.30
1:30
1:25
Start of
Trail
Estimated hiking
Time in hours.
0.45
Corral Hollow
2.45
1:45
“The Narrows”
No safe high ground
Orderville Canyon
End of Trail
Zion National Park,
Utah
Adapted from National
Geographic Trails
Illustrated
Deep Creek
Iron
County
North Fork
of the
Virgin River
Kolob
Creek
Orderville
Canyon
Washington
County
EPA RF3 Data
The Narrows
Kane
County
NF Virgin River
above the Narrows
285 mi2
0.40
KICX WSR-88D
ABR (in)
2000-2200 UTC
27 July 1998
Deep Creek
128.9 mi2
0.25
NF Virgin
River
70.3 mi2
Kolob
Creek
30.1 mi2
Goose Cr
4.7 mi2
0
0.97
0
Corral Hollow
2.2 mi2
Imlay Canyon
3.8 mi2
0
0
1-hour FFG
0.50
0 Orderville Canyon
The Narrows
4.1 mi2
41.5 mi2
0.33
0
10km
NF Virgin River
above the Narrows
285 mi2
1010
0
Kolob
Creek
30.1 mi2
1007
Deep Creek
128.9 mi2
1013
0.17
KICX WSR-88D
1014
0.65
1016
0.42
NF Virgin
River
70.3 mi2
1015
1021
1009 1012 0.39
0.32
1020
0.41
0.01
1005
0.89
1011
1006
0.90
1008
1019
0.01
1018
1.14
1004
1017 1.76
1-hour FFG
1026
0.25
1.05
1003
1000
1025
Orderville Canyon
1002
1022 1024 0.20
0.02
0
41.5 mi2
1001
ABR (in)
1023
2000-2200 UTC
0
0
10km
0.50
27 July 1998
North Fork of 17.0
the Virgin River
above the Narrows
17.9
1012
10.1
1015
1016
16.9
14.3
19.5
North Fork of
1021 the Virgin River
22.1
1011
Kolob 1007
Creek 15.8
1006
Deep Creek
1014
1013
12.9
1010
1020
1005
19.9
1009
10.1
1019
18.0
xx.x = miles
above trail head
1004
5.6
1018
1008
11.2
6.5
1017
6.5
Goose Creek
1003
Corral Hollow 1002
Imlay Canyon
1026
13.5
1025
Orderville
Canyon
10.0
1024
5.9
1023
4.4
5.2
1000
3.8
2.0
1001
1022
1.7
The Narrows
Deep Creek (5) #1014
27July1998 30.8 mi2
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
ABR Rate
ABR
0.6
0.4
0.2
2104
2058
2052
2046
2041
2035
2029
2023
2017
2011
2005
2000
1955
1950
0
o
Maximum Bin 176 at 20 km
27July1998
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2145
2133
2122
2110
2058
2046
2035
2023
2011
ABR Rate
ABR
Maximum rainfall on Storm Total Product 3.14 in.
North Fork of the
Virgin River
above the Narrows
70.3 mi2
0.97
ABR (in)
27 July 1998
2011-2133 UTC
0.89
3.14
1017
9.3 mi2
0.25
Washington
County
1000
0
1020
15.1 mi2
1018
18.4 mi2
1021
13.9 mi2
0.32
1019
13.6 mi2
1.14
1.76
1000 “The Narrows”
1017-1021 NF
Kane County Virgin River (1-5)
NF Virgin River (2) #1018
27July1998 18.4 mi2
3
2.5
2
ABR Rate
ABR
1.5
1
0.5
2145
2133
2122
2110
2058
2046
2035
2023
2011
0
NF Virgin River Subdivisions
5000-5002 Straight Canyon(1-3)
5003-5005 NF Virgin River(2-4)
5006 Willow Canyon
5007 Hay Canyon
5008 Simon Gulch
5009 NF Virgin River(1)
5010 Rosy Canyon
5011 Stevens Canyon
5012 Ashdown Canyon
5009
5008 0.54 5003
Washington
County, UT
0.09
1000
1017
1.44
1021
5012
0.22
1020
5002
0.56
5001
1.24
5000
0.71
3.14
5005
5006
1.81
5004 1.92
1.88
1018
Kane County, UT
5011
0.32
5010
0.49
5007
0.91
1019
ABR
27 July 1998
2017-2133 UTC
NF Virgin River(2) #5003
27July1998 5.4 mi2
2.5
2
1.5
ABR Rate
ABR
1
0.5
2145
2133
2122
2110
2058
2046
2035
2023
2011
0
NF Virgin River(3) #5004
27July1998 7.4 mi2
3
2.5
2
ABR Rate
ABR
1.5
1
0.5
2145
2133
2122
2110
2058
2046
2035
2023
2011
0
NF Virgin River(4) #5005
27July1998 5.5mi2
4
3.5
3
2.5
ABR Rate
ABR
2
1.5
1
0.5
2145
2133
2122
2110
2058
2046
2035
2023
2011
0
Willow Canyon #5006
27July1998 4.4 mi2
3.5
3
2.5
2
ABR Rate
ABR
1.5
1
0.5
2145
2133
2122
2110
2058
2046
2035
2023
2011
0
Straight Canyon(2) #5001
27July1998 6.1mi2
3
2.5
2
ABR Rate
ABR
1.5
1
0.5
2145
2133
2122
2110
2058
2046
2035
2023
2011
0
ABR Rates NF Virgin River
27July1998
4
3.5
3
5001
5006
5005
5004
5003
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
2145
2133
2122
2110
2058
2046
2035
2023
2011
0
AMBER Summary
• ABR provides basin specific rainfall to
determine flash flood risk (ABR-FFG)
• ABR rate focuses forecaster attention on
critical streams before flooding occurs.
• History (6-72 hours) of ABR helpful in
adjusting FFG for multiple rainfall events.
• Basin specific ABR allows forecaster to
mention “threat area” in warning text.
AMBER Data Sources
• ArcView and the spatial analyst extension.
www.esri.com
• USGS Data (3 arc second DEM data)
edcwww.cr.usgs.gov
• EPA Data (RF3 data files)
www.epa.gov/OST/BASINS/gisdata.html
AMBER Case Studies
www.nws.noaa.gov/er/pit/amberslides.htm
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buff.ppt
epgh99.ppt
pitcairn.ppt
zion.ppt
ohio98.ppt
redbank.ppt
dallas95.ppt
ftc97.ppt
kc1998.ppt
13Jul96
18May99
01Jul97
27Jul98
26Jun98
19Jul96
05May95
28Jul97
05Oct98
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Buffalo Creek, CO
Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh, PA
Cedar City, UT
Eastern Ohio
Brookville, PA*
Dallas, TX*
Fort Collins, CO*
Kansas City, MO*
* Tropical Z/R Cases