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Advertisement: Molson Presented by: Simon Wisniewski Kirsty Au Michelle Ho Adam Chamberlain 2 Overview of Presentation • Industry Overview History & Background Global Industry Overview U.S. Industry Overview Porter’s Forces and Key Success Factors • Company Analysis and Recommendations 3 Ancient History 4300 BC, Babylonian clay tablets detail recipes for beer. There is evidence that beer was elaborated by the Babylonian, Assyrian, Egyptian (for medical purposes), Hebrew, Chinese, and Inca cultures. 55 BC Roman legions introduce beer to Northern Europe. 500-1000 AD the first half of the Middle Ages, brewing begins to be practiced in Europe, shifting from family tradition to centralized production in monasteries and convents (hospitality for traveling pilgrims). 1200 AD beer making is firmly established as a commercial enterprise in Germany, Austria, and England. 1420 German brewers develop the lager method of brewing. 1489 Germany's first brewing guild, Brauerei Beck, was established. 4 Renascence History 1553 Beck's Brewery founded & still brewing today. 1587 the first beer brewed in New World at Sir Walter Raleigh's colony in Virginia. 1602 Dr. Alexander Nowell discovers that ale can be stored longer in cork sealed, glass bottles. 1612 the first commercial brewery opened in New Amsterdam (NYC, Manhattan). 1674 Harvard College has its own brew-house. 1680 William Penn (founder of Pennsylvania) operated a commercial brewery. 1786 Molson brewery is founded in what is today Canada. 1789 James Madison proposes that Congress levy a low 8-cent duty per barrel on malt liquors to encourage "the manufacture of beer in every State in the Union." 5 Modern History Before the 1800's most beer was really "Ale." In the mid-19th Century (1850's) German immigrant brewers introduced cold maturation lagers to the US (Anheuser-Busch, Miller, Coors, Stroh, Schlitz, and Pabst roots begin here). The modern era of brewing in the US began in the late 1800's with commercial refrigeration (1860), automatic bottling, pasteurization (1876), and railroad distribution. 1870's Adolphus Busch pioneers the use of doublewalled railcars, a network of icehouses to make Budweiser the first national brand. 1880 there are approximately 2,300 breweries in the US. 1890s Pabst is the first US brewer to sell over 1 million barrels in a year. 6 Modern History 1914 commercial competition drives the number of operating breweries down to 1,400. 1920 Prohibition Starts for beer, even though some regions started as early as 1846, e.g. Maine. Prohibition focused more on whiskey and other distilled products. 1933 Prohibition ends for beer (April 7). 1935 only 160 breweries survive Prohibition. 1935 the beer can is introduced (American Can Co. & Kreuger Brewing). 1966 Budweiser is the first brand to sell 10 million barrels in a year. 1991 the US produces 20% of the world beer volume (world's largest). 1993 US retail beer sales exceed $45 Billion. Source: http://www.beerhistory.com/library/holdings/raley_timetable.shtml 7 What is Beer • Beer is used as a generic term and includes both lager and ale. Lager is lighter in taste and is made with a type of yeast that drops to the bottom of the fermenting tank. More hops are used to brew ale and the yeast rises to the top of the tank. Less than 1% of the market is sold as stout or porter. • More than 78% of all beer sold in Canada is in returnable and reusable bottles. 97 out of every 100 of those bottles come back for cleaning and refilling. A bottle can be reused 15 to 20 times, preventing enormous wastage. Aluminum beer cans (which account for 15% of all sales) are also crushed and recycled, as are the beer cartons. Draught beer is sold in reusable kegs that can last 15 to 20 years before they too are also crushed and recycled. Source: http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/PrinterFriendly.cfm?ArticleId=A0000980 8 Brewing Process 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Malted barley is weighted, cleaned and passed through a mill which crushes the grain. The crushed malt, called grist, is mixed with hot water in a mash tank. It is then boiled at a temperature which allows the malt to starch and convert to fermentable sugars called wort. From the whirlpool, the wort is passed through a cooler where it is cooled and the pure yeast culture is added. During the fermentation the yeast converts the fermentable sugars in the wort into alcohol and carbon dioxide gas. Once completed, the liquid referred to as wort is now called beer. Following a prescribed maturation period, carbon dioxide gas is added and the beer is passed through a complex filtration system to remove surplus yeast and protein matarial. The beer is trasferred to holding tanks prior to packaging. The finished beer exits the filter and enters the serving tank ready to be dispensed. Source: http://www.fosters.com.au/beer/brewing/brewing_process.asp 9 Global Industry Overview • Beer is a Mature Product. Firms try to distinguish themselves by differentiation Quality, Innovation, and marketing • It is the largest seller in the alcohol drinks sector. • Consumer base: heavily male dominated. • Although globalization is a general trend in many industries, the brewing industry has long been lagging behind and has remained very fragmented. 5 largest account for approx. 44% of total volume Compare this to the cigarette industry - 5 largest, 60% share • Sales are seasonal and related to: Weather (summer months) Holidays: Christmas and the 4th of July in the US 10 Current Global Trends • In the decade between 1988 and 1998 the 10 largest brewers hardly arose from 35.8% to 37.6%. • Over the last five years this development has accelerated strongly, the 10 largest increased by nearly 20% and have now 57% of the global market. • Consolidation led by major international brewers During recent years brewers like Heineken and Interbrew have started internationalizing their activities. Coors and Molson have merged within last couple of months. • Volume growth in developing markets China: Second largest market (by sales) and growing. Largest market in total volume. Eastern Europe and Russia 11 Global Market Share 2004 Anheuser-Busch, 10.80% SABM iller, 8.90% Others, 43.00% Interbrew, 8.40% Heineken, 7.60% Carlsberg, 5.70% 12 Kirin, 2.20% Coors, 2.6 Ambev, 4.70% Grupo M odelo, 2.80% Scottish& Newcastle, Global Beers • • • • • • • • • • • • Anheuser-Busch Budweiser, Bud Light, Bud Dry, Bud Ice, Michelob, Anheuser World Select, Bare Knuckle Stout, ZiegenLight, Busch, Natural Light , Various others SABMiller Miller Genuine Draft, Miller High Life, Milwaukee's Best, Nastro Azzurro, Pilsner Urquell, Carling Black Label, Tyskie Gronie, Castle Lager, Various others Interbrew (Inbev) Brahma, Beck’s, Stella Artois, Hoegaarden, Leffe, Bass, Staropramen, Various others Heineken Heineken, Amstel, Licenses others Carlsberg Carlsberg, Carlsberg Special Brew, Carlsberg Export, Tuborg, Okocim, Various others Ambev Skol, Brahma, Antarctica, Bohemia, Kronenbier, Caracu, Licenses others Scottish & Newcastle John Smith’s, Foster’s, Kronenbourg 1664, MGD, Beck’s, Baltika, Grimbergen, Brugs, Various Others Grupo Modelo Corona Extra, Corona Light, Modelo Especial, Victoria, Negra Modelo, Pacífico, Estrella, León, Montejo Molson Coors Molson Canadian, Molson Ultra, A Marca Bavaria, Pilsner, Molson Export, Carling, Molson Dry, Carling Black Label, Rickard's Red, Bohemian, Tornade, Kaiser, Various others Coors, Coors Light, Aspen Edge, Killian’s, Blue Moon, Keystone, Keystone Ice, Keystone Light, Extra Gold Kirin Kirin Light, Kirisn Ichiban, Various Others 13 Sleeman Cream Ale, Honey Brown, Silver Creek, Clear, Original Dark, Premium Light, Steam, Amber, Various regional brands, Licenses others Many other producers and microbreweries Global Beer Consumption Share Country (2001) US 16.4 China 14.3 Germany 7.3 Brazil 5.8 UK 4.1 Japan 3.6 Mexico 3.5 Russian Federation 3.1 Poland 1.7 France 1.5 Czech Republic 1.2 Canada Per Capita Consumption (in liters) 83.1 15.8 123.1 46.7 97.1 40 48.6 30 60.5 35.9 158.1 83 14 Internationalization Matrix • “Degree of Internationalization” is evaluated by weighing the world market share with the respective ratio of foreign sales to total sales. • “Potential of Internationalization” is described by weighing the free cash flow with the number of subsidiaries supported by the respective brewing group. • The size of the circles corresponds to the respective group volume in hectoliters. 15 Canadian Industry Overview 2003 Total Beer Sales (in HL) Share of Canadian and Import Beer Sales Canadian Beer, 90.3% Import (U.S.), 2.3% Import (Other), 7.4% 16 Canadian Industry Overview 2003 Packaged Canadian Beer Sales Cans, 25.0% Large Bottles, 3.5% Small Bottles, 71.5% 17 Source: http://www.brewers.ca/EN/statistics/asbpages.htm Canadian Industry Overview 2003 Per Capita Consumption (in Litres) 100 80 Beer (Legal) 60 Beer (Adult) 40 Spirits Wine 20 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Beer (Legal) 93.6 92.88 93.02 92.62 90.58 90.93 90.6 90.69 88.82 89.57 88.45 Beer (Adult) 87.8 87.18 87.33 86.94 85 85.35 85.08 85.22 83.49 84.22 83.22 Spirits 5.64 5.48 5.39 5.36 5.35 5.58 5.83 6.04 6.16 6.72 6.86 Wine 10.25 10.07 10.22 10.44 10.81 10.99 11.44 11.96 12.54 13.11 13.5 Adult is considered to 15 years old and over, Legal Drinking age is 19 years old across Canada except in Quebec, Manitoba, Alberta where it’s 18 years old. 18 U.S. Industry Overview 2004 2004 Beer Seasonality - Volume Sales Seattle/Tacoma - Supermarkets Weekly Cases (Thousands) 210 July 4th 190 Hallow een Bud Bow l St.Pat 's Memorial Day Labor Day Christmas New Year's Th'giving 170 150 130 110 90 70 Source: IRI InfoScan Data 52 Weeks Ending Dec 26, 2004 - Case Basis 19 5 ec D ec D 21 ov 7 N ov N ct 24 O 26 12 ct 10 O Se p Se p 15 1 29 Au g Au g Au g Ju l1 8 Ju l4 6 20 Ju n Ju n 9 23 M ay M ay Ap r2 5 Ap r1 1 29 M ar 14 M ar 28 Fe b 1 15 Fe b Fe b 18 Ja n Ja n 4 50 Week Ending Source: http://www.myaccountoverview.com/scripts/MarketOverview.aspx 19 U.S. Industry Overview 2004 20 Source: http://www.myaccountoverview.com/scripts/MarketOverview.aspx U.S. Industry Overview 2004 21 Source: http://www.myaccountoverview.com/scripts/MarketOverview.aspx U.S. Industry Overview 2004 22 Source: http://www.myaccountoverview.com/scripts/MarketOverview.aspx U.S. Market Characteristics • 3 basic levels of brewing according to annual production: High-volume (shipments of over 15 million barrels) They account for around 80% of total production. All of them are owned by the 3 largest brewing companies in the US (Anheuser-Busch Inc., Miller Brewing Co., and Adolph Coors Co.). Regional (15,000 – 15 million barrels) They account for 15% of total production. Usually focused on local distribution. Many micro-breweries have grown into this category in the last 5 years. Largest regional breweries are Stroh Brewery Co., Pabst Brewing Co., Genessee Brewing Co. Small Breweries (less than 15,000 barrels) They account for 5% or less of total production. Microbreweries and brewpubs (also restaurant-breweries or “craft 23 brewers”). Source: http://www.beer-brewing.com/US_beer_market.htm U.S. Market Segments • The market for beer in the U.S. consists of 3 segments: domestic beers, imports, and specialty beers • Domestic Beers Sub Sub-premium Premium 25.5% Premium Super premium Malt liquor segments Light* Ice* Dry* *They are the result of high price competition during the 1970s and 1980s. They are priced high and their purpose is to reclaim some of the revenue lost during the “price wars”. Super Premium 18.2% Premium 56.3% 24 U.S. Market Segments • Import Beers Rivalry from imports has never been a big factor in the beer industry. They’re growing steadily (around 5-8% since 1990s). • Reasons for growth: Expanding economy. Consumer interest in ‘higher-quality’ (higherpriced) beer. From 1995 through 1997 the growth of the Hispanic community in the US drove the import category . Most importantly, corporate partnerships/ownerships of foreign breweries that allow foreign brands to access the local distribution networks. Since 1995 the No. 1 import is Corona Extra from Cerveceria Modelo. 25 U.S. Market Segments • Specialty Beers: Fastest growing segment (10-15% since 1990). They are perceived as higher quality by consumers. Subcategories include: large breweries regional breweries contract brewing companies microbreweries brewpubs 26 U.S. Market Structure • Flat consumption trends: only some international markets and the micro-brewing segment show growing opportunities. • Highly Concentrated: The industry includes more than 300 breweries but is dominated by three producers who command a nearly 80 percent market share: Anheuser-Busch (50%) Miller Brewing (18%) Adolph Coors (11%) • The market leaders have expanded their respective market shares at the expense of other national brewers like Strohs Brewery. • The industry as a whole has stable and relatively predictable Cash Flows. 27 Source: http://www.deed.state.mn.us/bizdev/PDFs/beer.pdf U.S. Industry Overview 2004 28 U.S. Industry Overview 2004 29 U.S. Market Structure • Market Leadership: Once a firm attains market leadership in a mature industry, it is difficult for it to be unseated and it offers a company many benefits over rivals including substantial production economies of scale advantages. • Distribution: Expensive to ship: beer has low value relative to weight. Therefore, several breweries are needed for successful distribution. This sometimes explains why large breweries take over small ones. This highlights the importance of good distribution networks. • The importance of branding and pricing: Price elasticity of demand. Premium Pricing for higher quality perceived beers. 30 Source: http://www.deed.state.mn.us/bizdev/PDFs/beer.pdf U.S. Market Structure • Virtually all new entrants to the beer industry are niche players that cater to specialized, often regional but sometime national, tastes. The recent explosion of micro brewers reflects this increased demand for niche beers. • Characteristics of the microbrews market segment: High barriers to entry (i.e. legal, manufacturing and distribution costs). Small consumer market with less consumer price differentiation (i.e. low price elasticity) than for major brands. Due to the high costs of entry microbrews rely on regional brewers to produce their products under contract (e.g. Minnesota Brewing, Samuel Adams). 31 Source: http://www.deed.state.mn.us/bizdev/PDFs/beer.pdf U.S. Market Demographics • Beer consumption is overwhelmingly male-dominated; men account for more than 80% of the volume consumed in the U.S. • The largest group of male consumers are white and they favor domestic light beer. • African American drinkers make up about 10% of the beer market overall, and they are the biggest consumers of malt liquors, followed by ice beer. • Women beer drinkers are more attracted to specialty microbrewed beers than they are to the big brands, due to their greater variety. • Craft-beer is more appealing to white beer drinkers than to African Americans. 32 Source: http://www.deed.state.mn.us/bizdev/PDFs/beer.pdf U.S. Market Trends • Consolidation (e.g. mergers and acquisitions) due to: Flat consumption trends Regulatory burdens High Taxation • The market is mature with flat consumption trends due to: Increased alcohol awareness Slow population growth Aging population (young male adults are the largest beer consumers) • Changes in tastes Shift to “light beer” (started by Miller in 1972 – Miller Light). Light beer segment grew from 0% to 23% of US beer consumption since 1972. A-B has deterred Miller’s leadership in this segment. In 2001 Bud Light became the top selling beer overall. Source: http://www.deed.state.mn.us/bizdev/PDFs/beer.pdf 33 U.S. Industry Regulations • Regulations focus on: Distribution Labeling Advertising Credit Container characteristics Alcoholic content Tax rates Litter assessments 34 Source: http://www.beer-brewing.com/US_beer_market.htm U.S. Beer Distribution • The brewing industry is organized into a so-called "threetier" distribution system: 1) brewers and importers 2) wholesalers Exclusive (often partially owned by the brewery) Anheuser-Busch distributes about 75% of its beer through independent wholesalers; the remainder is marketed through exclusive wholesalers. Independent or multi-brand: Unlike wine and spirits wholesalers, which are generally multi-state operators, beer wholesalers tend to operate within the boundaries of a single state. 3) retailers • Under this system, brewers and importers generally transport their beer to distribution warehouses, where they are temporarily stored and then reloaded onto distribution trucks and delivered via a routing system to individual retailers. 35 U.S. Beer Distribution • In recent years, multi-brand beer wholesalers have been proliferating This is due, in great part, to the consolidation that has marked the industry for nearly two decades. The number of wholesalers has declined from more than 5,000 nationwide in 1970 to fewer than 2,500 today. Unlike wine and spirits wholesalers, which are generally multistate operators, beer wholesalers tend to operate within the boundaries of a single state. • Over the last decade, the off-premise retail segment for beer has changed dramatically While traditional liquor stores and mom-and-pop operations continue to account for a significant share of off-premise beer sales, national retail chains (supermarkets, drug stores, membership clubs, or convenience stores) are increasingly accounting for more beer sales . 36 U.S. Beer Distribution 37 Source: http://www.myaccountoverview.com/scripts/MarketOverview.aspx U.S. Regulations • Federal Regulations: Formerly issued by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (BATF), which was established by the Federal Alcohol Administration (FAA) Act. On November 25, 2002, the Homeland Security Act of 2002 split the agency into two different agencies. The Department of Justice. The Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) (kept within the United States Department of the Treasury). TTB responsibilities: Enforce the compliance of provisions for the formulation and labeling of alcoholic beverages, as required by the Internal Revenue Code and the FAA Act. Taxes, distribution and advertising. International trade regulations. Lab testing (approval of brewing formulas and equipment). 38 U.S. Regulations • State Regulations: After Prohibition, state governments were given considerable authority over the production, importation, distribution, sale, and consumption of beer within their borders. Regulations vary across states (i.e. Minnesota requires that the beer label show the alcohol content, while Michigan does not permit the label to show alcohol content). Other regulations include: Max – Min alcohol content Max – Min size of containers Credit sales Advertising Production, distribution and retailing Taxes 39 U.S. Regulations Allowable Blood Alcohol Level .08 .08 .10 .10 .08 .10 .08 .08 .10 .10 .08 .10 .08 .10 .10 .10 .08 .10 .08 .10 .08 .08 .10 .08 .10 .08 .10 .08 .08 .10 (DC) .08 .10 .10 .08 .08 .08 .10 .10 .10 .08 .10 .08 .08 .08 .10 .10 .10 .08 .08 .08 .08 .10 .10 .10 .10 .08 .08 .08 .10 .08 .10 .08 40 .08 Source Adams Fact Book 2002 U.S. Regulations • Local Regulations: Many states permit local jurisdictions to regulate and separately tax beer sales, and even to prohibit the sale of beer within their jurisdiction. Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Maryland, New York, and Ohio have cities or counties that impose local beer taxes. Jurisdictions in which the sale of alcoholic beverages is prohibited are called “dry”. about 4.3% of the U.S. population live in dry counties. 41 Beer Taxation • Canada ranks very high with respect to taxes on a case of beer. In Canada, commodity and sales taxes alone make up 52% of the average retail price of beer, ranking Canada the third highest. • Taxes in the United States average 19% - 22nd out of 23 countries surveyed. • An increase in alcohol taxes generally results in a larger increase in retail price, as wholesalers and retailers add markups to the products as they move through the distribution system. http://www.brewers.ca/EN/ 42 Porter’s Five Forces Model Government Threats of New Entrants (Low) Bargaining Power Of Suppliers (Low) Rivalry (High) Availability of Substitutes (Medium) Bargaining Power Of Buyers (Medium) 43 Porter’s Five Forces • Threats of new entrants: High barriers to entry: Capital Intensive (especially in advertising) Distribution networks Regulations Economies of scale in marketing, production and distribution. • Rivalry (price competition has been decreasing): Increasing competition from imported beers (however, national brewers own part of these breweries). 2,200 wholesalers and 560,000 retail establishments. Creative and enticing advertising by majors. Growing popularity of micro-breweries and other craft-beers. Alternative: expansion to super-premium beers and other segments with 44 lower demand elasticity. Porter’s Five Forces • Substitutes: Growth in: Premixed drinks Alternative malt beverage Alternative non-alcoholic drinks (from juices to mineral water) However, beer remains the largest drink sector. • Buyer’s Bargaining Power: It changes from segment to segment, but in general: Low switching costs Brand loyalty Increasing health conscience However, for craft-beers, which are perceived as having higher quality, these characteristics may not always hold. 45 Porter’s Five Forces • Suppliers’ Bargaining Power: Most supplies come from competitive industries which are more fragmented than the beer industry. Farmers Labor (the case of unionized labor) The more consolidated supplier is that one supplying bottles/cans. • Government Has the potential to change regulations/laws and taxation levels 46 Key Success Factors • Low cost structure (Scale of economies and learning) • Effective marketing & advertising strategy to expanded market share • Successful brand loyalty and recognition • Product innovation and production efficiency (packaging and automation) • Distribution (wholesalers’ loyalty) • International expansion to countries with increasing consumption trends • Strategic price increases and premium pricing 47 Advertisement: Budweiser (1) 48 Company Overview Established in 1864 World's largest brewer with 116.8 million of barrels sold Focus on 3 key divisions - beer, packaging and adventure park entertainment 49.6 % in U.S. market in 2004 Bud light has 19.1% of U.S. market Budweiser is the best selling beer in the world Rank No.1 in Beverage Industry in Fortune Magazine 2005 - “America’s Most Admired Companies’” 49 Distribution Network Operating 14 breweries, 12 in the United States and two in China and U.K. Budweiser is locally brewed in 7 other countries outside the U.S. : Argentina, Canada, Ireland, Italy, Japan, South Korea and Spain. 2/3 of the the volume is delivered by wholesalers who carry only A-B beer. 50 Products Approximately 30 beers for sale in the United States Budweiser & Bud Light Busch and Busch Light Michelob and Michelob Ultra Hurricane and Malt liquors Bacardi Silver & Mike’s Hard Lemonade O’doul’s & non-alcoholic beverages 51 Recent International Investment Purchase Harbin Brewery for $693M, 4th largest brewer in China Invest $33M in Convertible bond of TsingTao Brewery Partnership with Heineken in Italy Allow Heineken to brew, market and distribute “Budweiser” Make use of Heineken distribution network in Europe License agreement with Cerveceria Damm, 3rd largest brewer in Spain 52 Marketing & Growth Strategy Extensive advertising and promotional activities Budweiser has been the “Official Beer” sponsor of Olympics since 1984 Maintain good relationship with wholesalers Enhance distribution channel Acquisition of wholesalers Forming equity partnerships with leading brewers in high growth markets Especially China Increase international presence Improve productivity and making optimum use of the brewery’s assets To reduce the cost of good sold Advertisement: Budweiser (2) 53 Subsidiaries Anheuser-Busch Packaging Busch Agricultural Resources Inc. Manufacturers Railway Company Busch Entertainment Corp 50% interest in Grupo Modelo, Mexico. 20% interest: Compania Cervesias Unidas, Chile 27% interest in TsingTao brewer, China. 100% in Harbin Brewer, China Reciprocal agreement with Kirin, Japan and Labatts 54 Successful Investment With continuous investment in China, A-B’s China operations increased profits by 45% and volume by 17 % in 2003 Great jump up in International beer sales in 4th quarter, 2004 , right after the acquisition of Harbin Brewery in 3rd quarter. In Mexico, Budweiser and Bud Light volume increased 25% in 2003, resulting in profit growth for 3rd consecutive year. Grupo Modelo, Mexico’s leading brewer, whose flagship band, Corona, is the No.1 import in U.S. 55 Key Executives August A Busch III Patrick T. Stokes W. Randolph Baker John E Jacob Chairman of the Board since 1979 President & CEO since 1981 CFO & Vice President since 1970 Director of Global Communications Most senior management have over 20 years of service in the company 56 Stock Information Trade in NYSE since April 18 1980 Symbol BUD Price (Mar 8 2005) $47.93 Outstanding Shares 790.068 M P/E 17.32 EPS 2.77 Dividend (Jan.12 05) 24 ½ cents 57 5 Year Stock Price History 58 1 Year Stock Price History 59 Comparison with S&P 500 60 Stock Price Analysis Valuation Ratios Bud Industry S&P 500 Beta -0.07 0.08 1 P/E Ratio (TTM) 17.32 18.03 22.08 61 Dividend Analysis Dividends Bud Industry S&P 500 Dividend Yield 2.06 2.04 2.05 Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 1.6 1.41 1.55 Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 9.9 9.26 4.15 33.21 28.04 27.61 Payout Ratio 62 Beer Sales Analysis Reported Beer Volume (millions of barrels) Fourth Quarter Full Year Ended December 31 vs. 2003 2004 Domestic International Worldwide Brands Int’l Equity Partner Brands Total Brands Barrels vs. 2003 % 2004 Barrels % 22.9 Dn 0.3 Dn 1.5% 103.0 Up 0.4 Up 0.4% 4.7 Up 2.5 Up 120.5% 13.8 Up 5.4 Up 64.8% 27.6 Up 2.2 Up 8.8% 116.8 Up 5.8 Up 5.3% 4.6 Dn 0.01 Dn 0.2% 19.3 Up 0.5 Up 2.7% 32.2 Up 2.2 Up 7.4% 136.1 Up 6.3 Up 4.9% 63 2004 Financial Highlights ($ in millions, except per share) Full Year 2004 vs. 2003 2004 2003 $ % Gross Sales $17,160 $16,320 Up $840 Up 5.1% Net Sales $14,934 $14,147 Up $787 Up 5.6% Income Before Income Taxes $2,999 $2,824 Up $175 Up 6.2% Equity Income $404 $345 Up $59 Up 17.2% Net Income $2,240 $2,076 Up $164 Up 7.9% Diluted Earnings Per Share $2.77 $2.48 Up $.29 Up 11.7% 64 Business Segments Performance Domestic Beer Int’l Beer Packaging Entertain. Corporate & Elims. Other Consol. 2004 Gross Sales $13,371.60 1,015.10 2,276.80 989.3 75.4 -568 $17,160.20 --- --- $880.10 --- 4 -884.1 $ --- $11,350.8 809.9 1,396.7 989.3 71.4 316.1 $14,934.2 Income Taxes $3,279.4 130.9 163.9 172.7 (2.0) (745.5) $2,999.4 Equity Income --- $404.10 --- --- --- --- $404.10 $2,033.20 485.3 101.6 107.1 -1.2 -485.7 $2,240.30 $12,997.50 797 2,093.60 923.9 74.4 -566.2 $16,320.20 --- --- $869.20 --- 4.3 -873.5 $ --- $10,984.4 636.6 1,224.4 923.9 70.1 307.3 $14,146.7 Income Taxes $3,118.7 90.8 155.5 162.8 (12.0) (691.5) $2,824.3 Equity Income --- $344.90 --- --- --- --- $344.90 $1,933.60 401.2 96.4 100.9 -7.4 -448.8 $2,075.90 Net Sales: - Intersegment - External Income Before Net Income 2003 Gross Sales Net Sales: - Intersegment - External Income Before Net Income 65 Profit Analysis Profitability Ratios (%) Bud Industry S&P 500 Gross Margin 39.85 39.31 46.45 EBITD Margin 28.75 25 21.78 Operating Margin 22.51 19.89 22.04 Net Profit Margin 12.3 10.98 14.11 66 Stock Option Plan Officers, certain employees and directors Price = market price on the date of option is granted Vest over 3 years generally Max. term of 10 years 67 Share Repurchase Average net purchase 2-3 % of outstanding share In Millions 2004 2003 2002 2001 # of Shares purchase 27.1* 39.4 40.7 28.2 1699.5 1958.9 2,027 1,163.80 790.067 825.783 866 890.43 Amount Shares Outstanding * First 9 months in 2004 68 Share Repurchase Repurchase more shares than those issued under Stock Option Plan Enhance dividend growth Enhance Earning per Share Drop in Share Repurchase due to acquisition of Harbin 69 Financial Statements Analysis 70 Income Statement Analysis • 6.31% increase in Cost of Sales • 3.7% increase in Marketing, Distribution and Administrative Expenses • 5.05% increase in Operating Income • 6.37% increase in Interest Expenses • Great jump in Other Income 71 Income Statement Analysis Financial Strength Bud Industry S&P 500 LT Debt to Equity 3.1 2.32 0.52 Total Debt to Equity 3.1 2.34 0.76 72 Balance Sheet Analysis • • • • 19.36% increase in Cash 17.5% increase in Inventories 13.63% increase in Debt 13.13% increase in Treasury Stock, at cost Management Effectiveness Bud Industry S&P 500 Return On Assets (TTM) 11.84% 10.68% 7.41% Return On Investment (TTM) 13.58% 12.58% 11.23% Return On Equity (TTM) 82.26% 62.72% 19.59% 73 Cash Flow Analysis • Generating $2.9403 billion cash flow from operations, a bit lower than 2003 • Huge increase in working capital • Acquisition increases due to Harbin • Higher Dividend paid • Share repurchase drops • Issuance of shares increases under the stock option plan 74 Gordon’s Growth Model • • • • • • • Good for stable companies Paying dividends that grow Stock Price = Ex (Div/Share) (k – g) g = 9.90 % in 5 years k = 0.1157, Div/Share = 0.93 Expected: $55.668 Actual: $ 47.930 75 Technical Analysis 76 Key Investment Positives Dominant and growing beer brands High international growth potential 77 Key Investment Positives Broad network and foreign partnership Increasing Domestic Revenue per Barrel Growth in profit Increasing and favorable dividend payout Relatively low stock price at present 78 Key Investment Negatives High Leverage Decelerating growth in Domestic Market Non stop growth in Marketing and advertising cost 79 Recommendation BUY Advertisement: Budweiser (3) 80 81 History • Originated in Amsterdam Netherlands • 1864: Gerard Adriaan Heineken purchased “The Haystack” brewery • 1873: Heineken Breweries is incorporated Gerard Heineken appointed President • 1939: Heineken listed on stock market Euronext in Amsterdam Included in the AEX index • 1980s: Global expansion 82 Ownership - 1 • Heineken N.V. 50.005% held by Heineken Holding N.V. 49.995% free float • Heineken Holding N.V. 50.005% held by L’Arche Holding S.A. 43.195% free float 6.8% Greenfee B.V. • L’Arche Holding S.A. Swiss company Owned by Heineken family 83 Management Anthony Ruys • Joined 1993 • Chairman of the Executive Board (2002) Jean Francois van Boxmeer • Joined 1984 • 2001 member of the executive board Marc Bolland • Joined 1987 • 2001 member of the executive board Rene Graafland • Joined 1981 • 2002 member of the executive board Karl Buche • 1993: Chairman of the executive board of BBAG • 2004 member of the executive board 84 Markets • World’s leading brewing group Operating in over 170 countries • Own over 115 breweries in over 65 countries • Ranks 2nd in the world beer market in profitability • Principal area of activities: Europe – accounts for over ½ of Heineken’s sales Heineken is the leading beer brand with breweries in Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy, Greece, and Ireland • Main export market outside Europe U.S. (particularly N.E. of U.S. – New York) Advertisement: Heineken (1) 85 Sales Revenue Sales Revenue - Geographical Regions Africa and Middle East 8% Asia/Pacific 4% The Americas 14% Western Europe $6,210 Central and Eastern Europe $1,859 The Americas $1,510 Africa and Middle East $835 Asia/Pacific $467 Central and Eastern Europe 17% Western Europe 57% 86 Goal and Strategy Heineken’s goal is to defend and strengthen its leading global market position and preserve its independence. • Achieve a level of sales and profitability which makes it one of the world’s largest and financially best-performing brewing groups • Maintain a strong portfolio of beer brands, with Heineken as the leading international premium beer • Maintain strong local market positions Good sales mix Efficient cost structure * Low-Cost Strategy * 87 The Heineken Business Model Organic Growth Top-line growth • Building winning brand portfolios, focus on their flagship Heineken: improve volume, mix, pricing • Innovation • Sales and marketing excellence • Acquisitions • Distribution power • Partnerships • Focus on developing markets and the premium segment Cost reduction • Continued cost focus in all business area Cash Generation • Business Development Our shareholders Strict cash flow management 88 Heineken’s Top-10 Brands Brand Sales Volume hl millions Country Heineken 22.8 International Amstel 11.1 International Cruzcampo 5.3 Spain Star 3.2 Nigeria Zywiec 2.5 Poland Cristal* 2.4 Chile Ochota 2.4 Russia Primus 2.0 D.R. Congo, Rwanda Moretti 2.0 Italy Gulder 1.9 Nigeria, Ghana Tatra 1.6 Poland Specjal 1.5 Poland *Cristal owned by joint-venture 89 Overview - Distribution • Seeks to achieve comprehensive coverage in each market by: Forming alliances with independent distributors Distribute through its own beverage wholesalers 90 Recent Acquisitions & Partnerships Partnerships: • FEMSA, USA • Lion Nathan, Australia Acquisitions • Kingway Brewery, China • Shikhan Brewery, Russia • Volga Brewery, Russia • Diageo/Namibian Breweries, Southern Africa • Diageo Guinness Stout, Russia, 2005 • Sobol Brewery, Russia • Fürstenbergische Brauerei, Germany Ìncrease in participating interest • Hoepfner Brauerei, Germany • BBAG, C&E Europe • Würzburger Brauerei, Germany, 2005 • Consolidated Breweries, Nigeria • Tempo Beer, Israel • Dinal, Kazakhstan • DB Group, New Zealand 91 Partnership and Acquisitions • Europe: acquired BBAG (Brau Union AG) in July 2003 • Largest purchase in Heineken’s history European brewer with leading market positions in Austria, Romania and Hungary Owns 22 breweries & sells around 13 million hl of beer Made Heineken a market leader in 8 Central European countries Enhance brand’s growth potential (esp in Austria, Romania, Hungary, and Czech Republic) February 2004, participating interest increased from 60.3% to 100% Russia: acquired Shikhan and Volga breweries (August 2004) and Sobol brewery (December 2004) • Various wholesalers in Italy, Spain, and Poland 92 2005 Outlook • Invest in €100 million in innovation and high-impact, aggressive marketing programs to reinforce the Heineken brand equity in USA • Improve volumes and sales mix to address the changing consumer dynamics in Western Europe • Continue with business-wide focus on cost reduction • Continue to actively pursue their strategy of selective, value-adding acquisitions in growth markets • Heineken brand continue to drive sales mix improvment Worldwide, the premium segment of the beer market will continue to capture an increasing share of the market • Innovations Consumer focused 93 Financial Review 94 Financial Review € / hl million 2004 2003 Increase Group beer sales volume 113 99 13.8% Heineken premium brand 19.2 18.5 4.1% 1,329 1,327 0.2% 319 537 334 798 - 32.7% 791 806 Operating Profit BEIA Net Profit Net Profit BEIA - 1.9% Organic growth in Operating Profit (BEIA) 5.0% Organic growth in Net Profit (BEIA) 8.1% Group volume: beer volume sold by consolidated companies and beer of Heineken brewed under license 95 and sold by 3rd parties. BEIA: Before exceptional items and amortisation of goodwill Organic Profit: profit excluding the effects of currency movements, first-time consolidations, exceptional items and amortisation of goodwill. Exchange Rate Movements • Heineken hedges its exposure to the US dollar • • 2004: $1.13 USD = €1 Lower US dollar exchange rate reduced operating profit by €124 million Other currencies lowered operating profit by an additional €34 million Position US$ million 2004A Operating Profit - 124 Net Profit - 87 96 Review by Region • Western Europe (44.7 million hl to 43.5 million hl) Weak economy and adverse weather conditions Fierce retail competition constrained price increases • • Central and Eastern Europe (20.6million hl to 31.6 million hl) Launch of Heineken in Brau Union’s distribution network – revenue synergies Increase in volumes in Russia and Poland The Americas • Operating result fell from € 369 to € 284 million (weakness of the dollar) Africa and Middle East (12.7 million hl to 13.5 million hl) • (12.5 million hl to 14.5 million hl) Higher beer sales, cost reductions (closure of a brewery in Nigeria), efficiency improvement programs Asia Pacific (increased to 9.5 million hl) All markets in Asia Pacific increased except Singapore 97 Heineken Premium Sales 2003 in m hl 8 2004 0 Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Americas Africa & Middle East Asia Pacific Heineken Premium 2004 Highlights • Heineken brand growth 4% in challenging market • Increasing market share in Europe and the USA • Strong brand equity, superior to competition 98 Current Stock Price • • • • • • • • • Traded on U.S. OTC Symbol: Current Price: 52-week HIGH: 52-week LOW: Outstanding Shares: EPS (ttm): P/E ratio (ttm): Dividend: HINKY $34.90 $34.95 $29.30 489.98 million $1.42 $24.47 $13.96 99 Five Year Stock Performance BBAG acquisition Aug 2003 public offer for the outstanding shares (???) Unknown reason 100 One Year Stock Performance 101 Comparison with S&P500 102 Stock Price Analysis Valuation Ratios Heineken Industry S&P 500 Beta 0.15 0.08 1 P/E Ratio (TTM) 24.02 18.03 22.08 Price to Sales (TTM) 1.29 2.28 3.05 103 Dividend Price Analysis Dividends Heineken Industry Dividend Yield S&P 500 1.211 2.04 2.05 Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 1.3 1.41 1.55 Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 4.56 9.26 4.15 Payout Ratio (TTM) 36.5 28.04 27.61 104 Profit Analysis Profitability Ratios (%) Heineken Industry S&P 500 Gross Margin (TTM) 39.76 39.31 46.45 EBITD Margin (TTM) 20.2 25 21.78 Operating Margin (TTM) 12.47 19.89 22.04 Net Profit Margin (TTM) 6.22 10.98 14.11 105 Profit Analysis 106 Balance Sheet • • • • • • • Financial fixed assets decreased by 31% Stocks (inventory) decreased by 7% Cash balance decreased by 53% Shareholder’s equity increased 7% Minority ownership decreased 34% Provisions decreased 58% (including reduction of €100 million of deferred taxes) Employee Benefits: new for 2004 (reporting changes) • Amounted to €680 Liabilities decreased 107 Management Effectiveness Management Effectiveness Heineken Industry S&P 500 Return On Assets (TTM) 5.73% 10.68% 7.41% Return On Investment (TTM) 7.94% 12.58% 11.23% Return On Equity (TTM) 16.52% 62.72% 19.59% 108 Cash Flow Statement • Cash flow from operations increased by €12 million • Cash flow from investing activities negative figures in both years (investments) • Lower net working capital (strict working capital control contributed to 93 million) 2004: - € 1,671 million 2003: - € 2.080 million Negative Net cash flow of - €519 million 109 Financial Strength Financial Strength Heineken Industry S&P 500 LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0.78 2.32 0.52 Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0.78 2.34 0.76 110 Dividend Growth Model Value of Stock = Stock Price: $34.90 DPS1 k-g Price is calculated as the current intrinsic value of the stock DPS is the expected dividend paid out in one year k is the required rate of return on investments g is the assumed constant growth rate for dividend g = 0.05 DPS1 = DPS0 (1 + g) k= =0.5335(1+0.05) = 0.56 DPS1 + g P0 0.56 = $34.90 + g = 0.06605 0.56 Value of Stock = 0.06605 – 0.05 = $34.89 111 Technical Analysis 112 Recommendation Investment Positives Investment Negatives • Strong Growth • High P/E Ratio • Brand Loyalty • Competitive Market • Low Debt Ratio • OTC listing (European) • Cash problems 113 Recommendation HOLD Advertisement: Heineken (2) 114 115 Company Overview • Sleeman family started brewing in Guelph in mid 1800’s • John H. Sleeman was the original brewer and Malter for the company • Five generations of family have been involved with the company, that has always taken pride in the product and it’s heritage 116 Timeline of Sleeman’s • 1836 – John H. Sleeman opened first brewery called the Stanford Spring Brewery • 1933 – Company has been past from John to George to George A. Sleeman. George A gets caught smuggling beer into Detroit during prohibition, issued ultimatum • 1984 – John W.Sleeman the great-great grandson of John H. received the historical family beer receipt book from his aunt. • 1985 – he reincorporates the business • 1988 – first beer bottle is filled since 1933 117 Overview Cont… • Today one of the fastest growing premium beers in North America • Number 1 premium beer in Canada and the 3rd largest brewer. • Their focus is premium beer but also produce value beer 118 Overview Cont… • Company produces over 15 Million Cases of beer per year, increasing every year. • Net income over $12 Million and increase each year • Through 12 brand and numerous partnership agreements. • 15% of total beer Sales in Canada with $7B 119 Corporate Officers • John Sleeman – Chairman &CEO Radio Advertisement: John Sleeman • • • • • • Rick Knudson – President &COO Dan Rogozyski –Secretary & VP, Fin & Adm Dan Fox – Director Ont & Atlantic Canada Steve Pelkey – Director Western Canada John Bailey – Director Quebec John Driggers – Director US exports 120 Premium Brands • • • • • • Cream Ale Honey Brown Silver Creek Clear Original Dark Premium light, Steam, Amber • Fine Porter 121 Regional Brands • Upper Canada - Ont • Okanagan Springs – BC&Alta • Shaftebury – BC&Alta • Unibroue - Que • Stroh’s – Value Brand • Sleeman Maritimes 122 Regional Breweries • Different locations: • 2 in Guelph,Ont: Sleeman’s&Upper Canada • Chambly, Que • Darthmouth, NS: Sleeman’s Maritime • Vernon, BC: Okanagan Springs 123 Distribution Network • Through breweries located across the country and in the US. Beer is sold in all provinces in Canada. Shipped from breweries. • Select states in the US mostly around brewery in • Partnership agreement with Specialist Brand Development to sell Sleeman’s beer in the UK. Mostly around London. 124 Partner Brand/Strategic Alliances • • • • • • Grolsch Guinness Pilsner Urquell Samuel Adams Sapporo Scottish and Newcastle 125 Growth Strategies • Focus on cost management • Distinctive sales and marketing, with focus on building premium brands • Expand production capacity in a cost effective manner • Continue to advance in US market • Evaluate acquisition and expansion opportunities from multiple standpoints 126 Recent News • Unibroue • Sapporro Contract • Continued growth in the US 127 Unibroue • Sleeman Acquired in June/04 • Largest Microbrewery in Quebec and among 20 largest in North America • In 2003: 27.5% of sales were outside of Quebec. • Sell beer in US, and European markets • Also in Belgium, Switzerland, Australia and Germany. • Unique brewing process, fermented 2 or 3 times to remove yeast. 128 Corporate Culture • Values: committed to excellence in dayto-day operations and employees • Great environment for employees • Community Involvement: U of Guelph, Guelph Hospital, United Way, Ducks Unlimited Canada, • Good standing within the community 129 Benefits • Rank #1 in the beverage industry for Corporate social responsibility by Globe and Mail • Low turnover • Internal promotions • Leads to great work culture, which is need to foster great employees(#1 asset of company) • Number of employees has steadily been increasing over the years. 2001-640 employees, 2002-700, 2003- 750 130 Financial • Latest stats 3rd Quarter of 2004 • Annual report will be released tomorrow (March 10) • Compare with 2003 annual numbers 131 Analysis of Balance Sheet • No cash at the end of the 3rd quarter • Inventory increase, negative sign • Intangible assets are over 1/3 of the assets • Long-term obligations increased substantially and total liabilities 132 133 Analysis of Income Statement • Net revenues up 16% • Gross Margin up 22% • SG&A expense up 22% • Net Income up 27% 134 135 Analysis of Cash Flow • Cash from Operating Activities cut in half • Change in non-cash from working capital • Business acquisitions up from Unibroue acquisition • Financing has gone up due to purchase • Net cash is zero 136 5 year Summary (in thousand of dollars, except for EPS) Income Statement Net Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Earnings before Taxes Net Income EPS (basic) EPS (diluted) 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 185,036 33,401 27,100 21,003 12,253 0.77 0.76 157,053 29,930 24,528 18,511 12,321 0.79 0.77 141,615 28,452 21,365 14,820 9,765 0.64 0.63 134,439 26,463 20,092 13,319 8,969 0.58 0.58 96,110 19,546 14,627 10,869 6,549 0.42 0.41 137 5 year Summary (in thousands of dollars) Balance Sheet Total Assets Equipment & Leaseholds Long-term Debt Shareholders' Equity Working Capital 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 243,948 74,691 85,290 103,800 17,606 221,433 70,120 83,622 90,197 5,094 197,642 67,569 80,293 73,088 (1,804) 182,179 58,407 89,987 62,554 (1,775) 166,171 48,596 81,223 58,078 2,670 138 Ratios 2003 Ratios Current Ratio LT Debt to Equity Hectolitres(Proforma) NBV per Share 2002 2001 2000 1999 1.3 1.1 1 0.8 0.9 1.1 1,273,000 1,134,000 1,024,000 6.48 5.70 4.78 1 1.4 998,000 4.12 1.1 1.4 539,000 3.67 139 Stock Options 2003 Units Outstanding at start of year 1,341,195 Granted 150,000 Exercised (177,895) Forfeited (41,945) Outstanding at end of year 1,271,355 Units 2003 Outstanding at start of year 1,341,195 Granted 150,000 Exercised (177,895) Weighted Avg Forfeited (41,945) Outstanding at end of year 1,271,355 Exercise Weighted Avg Exercise Price Units 2002 $ 7.57 1,620,544 $ 9.94 48,862 $ 7.46 (309,911) Weighted Avg $ 10.05 (18,300) $ 7.85 1,341,195 Exercise Price $ $ $ $ $ Price $ $ $ $ $ 7.57 9.94 7.46 10.05 7.85 Units 1,620,544 48,862 (309,911) (18,300) 1,341,195 • # shares outstanding 2002- 15,967,192 • 2003 –16,219,330 2002 Weighted Avg Exercise Price $ 7.46 $ 10.15 $ 7.38 $ 7.80 $ 7.57 7.46 10.15 7.38 7.80 7.57 140 Stock Price • • • • • • • Symbol: ALE Stock Price: Market Cap: 244,785,885 Volume: Trading range(last 52 weeks): 15.65-11.15 P/E Ratio: 16.5 Shares outstanding: 16,482,898 141 Stock Price 5 years 142 Stock Price last year 143 Sleeman vs. S&P500 • 144 Moving Averages 145 Stock Valuation • The company doesn’t pay dividends as they are directing all revenues to growing the company at this stage. • This is a negative point relative to other breweries around the world. • Unable to determine value of the company • Positive side should see more capital growth from this company. Advertisement: Sleeman 146 Recommendation Moderate Buy If can get through takeover of Unibroue in the next year then, the company would be a BUY 147 Breweries 148