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ATLSS Spatially Explicit Species Index (SESI) Models E. Jane Comiskey, Mark R. Palmer Donald L. DeAngelis, Louis J. Gross ATLSS SESI Models What is a SESI model? Spatially Explicit – Each uses a GIS representation of the Greater Everglades region. Species Index – Each indicates the dynamic effect of hydrological conditions upon biota as represented by a 0.0 – 1.0 index. Models – Are developed and used within a modular framework. All models share the same software, input and output foundation. ATLSS SESI Models What are they used for? Provide a simple means of estimating the relative impact of hydrological conditions upon biota. To encode the knowledge of field biologists. To provide input into other models. As a “stepping stone” to developing more complex demographic and individual-based models. ATLSS SESI Models How are they built? Field observations Field ecologist, ATLSS modelers Habitat/Model rules Historical data and observations ATLSS SESI Models : Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Observations and historical data Sparrows prefer dry marl dominated by Muhlenbergia or similar grass Successful nesting cycle requires 45 days of dry conditions Habitat/Model rules Exclude cells < 15% suitable habitat Abort nesting cycle if surface water depth > 15 centimeters ATLSS SESI Models Wading bird habitat/model rules as software design Available for all SESI Models Can be used to reproduce the software ATLSS SESI Models Insert model design into ATLSS SESI framework Provides a uniform foundation Saves time and money ATLSS SESI Models Output of American alligator model ATLSS SESI Models Output of Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow model ATLSS SESI Models Output of long legged wading bird model ATLSS SESI Models Output of short legged wading bird model ATLSS SESI Models Output of white-tailed deer model ATLSS SESI Models How are the models evaluated? Experience Comments Field ecologist or modeler: evaluate output Historical Data Experience ATLSS modelers: modify and rerun Comparison Calibration data maps 1979 to 1995 ATLSS SESI Models What models have been built? American alligator Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Long-legged and short-legged wading birds Snail kite White-tailed deer Everglades and slough crayfish Apple snail ATLSS SESI Models How have the models been used? This process was Scientists South Florida repeated for each Water Mgmt. scenario Comparison District evaluation. maps and Hydrology scenario write-ups Managers Stakeholders ATLSS staff Internet Internet Comparison maps and write-ups Public ATLSS SESI Models Additional current applications Models, especially the wading bird models, are being used to analyze climate change scenarios. Output from the American alligator model is being used as input to the American alligator spatially explicit stage-structured model. ATLSS SESI Models Current and future directions High accuracy elevation data (HAED) will enhance the current High Resolution Topography model. Upgrade models to use the most recent Florida FGAP vegetation data. Create a production run framework that allows users to run the models from their PC using a World Wide Web interface. ATLSS SESI Models What next? Expand current evaluation activities to include new data sets of species field information and calibration water years of 1965 through 2000 . Data sets include nesting success for sparrows, alligators, and snail kites, as well as apple snail and crayfish densities. Incorporate new models, e.g. empirical fish model (Trexler). ATLSS SESI Models Ongoing model evaluation procedure New data sets, recent Comments observations ATLSS modelers Ecologists Parameter settings PC-based evaluation tool Raw data Model updates ATLSS evaluation interface ATLSS SESI Models ATLSS evaluation interface Web-based interface. Uses expanded calibration hydrology data set. Only authorized users will have access. Must track the parameter settings for each run. Requires close collaboration between model developers and those validating the models. ATLSS SESI Models Framework for model use SFWMD Hydrology scenario, Scenario ID, model name ATLSS data viewer description, identifier ATLSS production interface Users Comparison maps, movies, raw data ATLSS SESI Models ATLSS production interface Web-based interface Only authorized users may run the models. General users may view/download the data. Uses the ATLSS data viewer to analyze the model results in detail. Provide an online forum for scenario evaluations.