Transcript Stone’s Problems: Causes

Stone’s Problems:
Causes
By: Omar Abdelghany
Farida Reyes
Mandy Reynolds
Monica Schlaich
Meghann Shannon
Classic and Erred Policy
Thinking
► Men
do not think they know a thing till they have
grasped the “why” of it (which is to grasp it’s
primary cause).” Aristotle’s Physica, Book II
► Problems:
 We think we have defined a problem when we have
described it’s causes.
 Policy debate is dominated by the notion that problems
are solved by finding root causes, and treating
symptoms.
 Analysis of causes is scarcely mentioned in policy
analysis textbooks.
Conceptualizing Causes
► When
a problem is defined by causes, the
conception of “cause” being used states:
 Every problem has a deep or primary cause.
 Cause can be found if only one looks hard and carefully.
 Causes are objective, and in principle, can be proven by
scientific research.
► Ultimately
with this conception, the true cause is
to blame, and to be eliminated, reduced, or
neutralized by policy.
Causal Reasoning in the Polis
► In
politics:
 We use cause not only to understand, but to assign
responsibility for problems.
 We prevent people from causing the problem.
 Problem causers are made to compensate other people
for bearing the problem.
 Causers are punished for causing suffering.
► To
identify a cause in the polis is to place burdens
on one set of people instead of another.
Two Primary Frameworks for
Interpreting the World: The Natural
& The Social.
► In
the Natural World:
 We understand occurrences as undirected,
unanimated, and purely physical.
 Nature is the realm of fate and accident.
 The best we can do is to mitigate effects.
► There
are natural determinants:
 The clash of a cold and warm front causes a storm.
► We
believe we have an adequate understanding
of natural causation when we can describe the
sequence of events by which one thing leads to
another.
Two Primary Frameworks for
Interpreting the World: The Natural
& The Social.
►
In the Social World:
 Events are understood to be the result of will.
 Society is the realm of control and intent.
►
We believe we have an adequate understanding of social
causation when we can identify the purposes or motives
of a person or group and link those purposes to their
actions.
 Because causation in the social sphere is related to
purpose we believe that influence works.
Flattering
► Bribing
► Threatening
►
Our Purposeful Actions May
Have Unintended Consequences
►
This is why in policy and politics, there is a crucial distinction between:
 Actions that have purpose, will, and motivation and those that do not.
 Effects that are intended and those that are not.
Distinctions between action and consequence, and between purpose and
lack of purpose create a framework for describing causal stories in
politics.
Consequences
Actions
Intended
Unguided
Purposeful
Unintended
Accidental Causes
Intentional Causes
Accidental Causes
►
Accidental Causes include:
 Natural disasters.
 Anything our culture understands as belonging to the realm of fate.
Persons good luck to have bet the right lottery number, or to have bought a
stock just before a takeover bid.
► Some aspects of personal looks and health.
►
 Machines that run amok.
►
►
►
►
Car breaks that unexpectedly fail, or a CAT scanner that crushes a patient.
These are devoid of purpose in either their actions or consequences.
One can not speak of actions here, but only occurrences.
Politically, this is a good place to retreat to if one is being charged with
responsibility, because there is no responsibility in the realm of fate.
Intentional Causes
► When
Intentional Causes Yield Bad Outcomes:
 Blame is laid directly at someone’s feet.
 It casts someone as willfully or knowingly causing harm.
 Problems are understood as the consequences of willful
human action.
 We have stories of oppressors and victims.
► When
Intentional Causes Result in Good:
 It is the domain we call “rational action”.
Inadvertent Causes
► Found
in the lower right section of the
model, it is the unintended consequences of
willed human action
► The
story of inadvertent cause is a common
interpretation of poverty, malnutrition and
disease
Type of Inadvertence
► Carelessness
or recklessness
► Usually
attributed to labor or management,
but includes problems in occupational safety
and health
► Safety
is put on the backburner due to the
interests in profits
Mechanical Causes
► Have
no will of their own but are designed,
programmed, or trained by humans to
produce certain consequences
► Somebody acts purposefully, but their will is
carried out through other people, through
machines or through “automatic” social
procedures and routines.
Mechanical Causes
► The
exact nature of human guidance or
control becomes the issue.
► The fight about the cause of a problem is a
debate usually about whether certain people
are acting out of their own will or
mechanically carrying out the will of others
Causal Theories
► The
four types of causal theories conjure up
images of a single action, a single actor and
a direct result. This image then remains
even when applied to corporations, agencies
and large groups or to sequences of
identifiable actions and results.
Three Models of Cause
► Complex
systems: Social systems are
necessary to solve modern problems are
inherently complex.
 It is impossible to anticipate all possible events
and effects, so failure or accident is inevitable.
Three Models of Cause (Cont’d)
► Institutional:
A social problem is caused by
a web of large, longstanding organizations
with ingrained patters of behavior.
Three Models of Cause
(Cont’d)
► Historical:
Social patterns tend to reproduce
themselves
 People in power benefit from their social
organization & current resource distribution that
keeps them in power
 Thus, they maintain their patterns through
control over selection of elites & socialization of
both elites & nonelites
Usefulness of Complex Cause
► Not
useful because they don’t offer…
 Single locus of control
 Plausible candidate to take responsibility
► Biggest
tension between social science &
real-world politics → Social scientist tend to
see complex causes of social problems,
while in politics, people search for
immediate & simple causes
Making Causes in the Polis
► 1995
→ William Weld addresses Clinton seeking
federal disaster assistance
► Qualifications for federal disaster assistance
 Show problem is result of uncontrollable forces of
nature
► Contentions:
 Weld – accident of nature [rising predator populations]
 Scientists & other experts – issue of human control
[overfishing]
►@
best, inadvertence through ignorance
Struggle for Political Power
► Table
8.1: Types of Causal Theories
Consequences
Actions
Unguided
Intended
Unintended
Mechanical
Cause:
Accidental
Cause:
Intentional
Cause:
Inadvertent
Cause:
intervening agents
Purposeful
oppression
nature
carelessness
Positions in Struggle for Political
Power
►2
strong positions:
 Accident → no possibility of human
responsibility
 Intent → direct control & knowing action
leading to full responsibility
►2
weak positions:
 Mechanical Cause → human control mediated
by other people/machines/systems
 Inadvertent Cause → action without full
knowledge
Strategies for the Accused
1)
Show the problem was accidentally
caused
2)
Show the problem was cause by
someone else
3)
Show inadvertence, especially of
unforeseen consequences
Books & Studies
Eastman, Work Accidents & the Law
► Rachel Carson, Silent Spring
► Ralph Nader, Unsafe at any Speed
► Both claim that condition…
► Crystal
 Formerly interpreted as accident was actually
the result of human will
 Formerly interpreted as indirectly caused is
actually pure intent
Common Strategy in Causal
Politics
► Conspiracy
Story
► Rational Choice Theory
 Holds that whatever people do, their behavior
is largely a result of conscious deliberate
choice
► Teleological
Fallacy
 Assumption that effects of an action are its
purposes to commit
 Purposes must be demonstrated with
evidence of actor’s wishes/motives, apart
from effects of his/her actions
Knowingly Tolerating Risks of
Injuries
► 1981
suit against Ford was upheld because
safety was traded for cost-reduction
► “Conscious
disregard of the probability that
conduct will result in injury to others,” this is
considered “malicious intent.”
► Idea
of calculated risks
Disproportionate Impact
► Disproportionate
Impact is discrimination
based on a rule or policy, where accused
does not blatantly show intent
► In 1971 the Supreme Court allowed
statistical evidence to prove discrimination
► Plaintiff needs to show that the results of a
selection process were highly unlikely to
occur by chance
Disparate Impact
► Behaviors
and rules that discriminate
against minorities and women
► This
led to the idea of “institutional
discrimination”
► Discriminatory
Impact is the moral and
political equivalent of calculated risk
The Uses of Causal Argument In
The Polis
1)
Challenge of protect an existing set of rules, institutions, and
interests
2)
Assign blame and responsibility for fixing a problem and
compensating victims
3)
Legitimize certain actors as “fixers” of the problem, giving
them new authority, power, and resources
4)
Create new political alliances among people who perceive
themselves to be harmed by the problem.
1. Challenge or protect an existing social
order
Example 1:
In the 19th and early 20th century, many poor rural whites in the South were
afflicted with a sickness later discovered to be caused by the hookworm
parasite. People with the disease were listless and eventually became slowwitted. Charles Stiles discovered in 1902 that the hookworm was the cause of
the disease and it could be easily cured with cheap medicine. Stiles was
ridiculed for discovering the “germ of laziness.” The discovery was resisted
because it meant Southern elites had to stop blaming poor whites for their
laziness and stupidity and stop congratulating themselves for their superior
ability to work hard and think fast-a supposed superiority that served to justify
political hierarchy.
Example 2:
The theory of maternal deprivation-that children whose mothers work suffer
developmental deficits and delays-arose just as middle-class women entered
the workforce in large numbers. Consciously or unconsciously, the theory
served as a brake on disintegration of the standard middle-class pattern in
which the man is breadwinner and the woman is child rearer.
2. Assign blame and responsibility for fixing a
problem and compensating victims.
►
“The fall of a kingdom can be traced back through a
lost battle, a fallen soldier, an injured horse, and a
loose horseshoe, all the way to a missing nail and a
careless blacksmith.”
►
Even when there is a strong statistical and logical link
between a substance and a problem there is still a range of
places to locate control and impose sanctions.
►
Finding the ultimate cause of harms in these policy areas is
not the issue. Locating moral responsibility and real
economic costs on a chain of possible causes is the true
issue.
3. Legitimize certain actors as “fixers” of the
problem, giving them new authority, power, and
resources.

Causal stories become mechanisms for linking a desired program
to a problem that happens to be high on the policy agenda.
Example 1: HMO’s
Answer to:
► increase health care to the poor
► cost-containment problem
Example 2: Urban Mass Transit
Answer to:
► traffic congestion
► Pollution
► Energy conservation

Causal theories server as devices for building alliances between
groups who have problems and groups who have solutions.
4. Create new political alliances among people
who perceive themselves to be harmed by the
problem.

Causal theories predicated on statistical association can create
alliances by mobilizing people who share a “risk factor” but
otherwise have no natural communication or association.
Example 1:
Shifting the location of responsibility on a causal chain can
restructure alliances. In the past, the drunk driver was solely
responsible for accidents. These days, taverns can be held responsible
for the server’s negligence and now see their customers as potential
liabilities. Tavern owners may seek new alliances with other antiregulation groups.
Example 2:
Women who took the drug DES 30 years ago to prevent miscarriages
now have daughters who are at greater risk of developing certain
cancers. Organizations of these women sprung up as soon as
the initial publicity of the DES-cancer link occurred.