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LUCUMA EXPORT MARKET - USA
PHASES I, II & III REPORT
04 Diciembre 2006
INTRODUCCIÓN
La siguiente presentación ha sido preparada siguiendo estrictamente los puntos
definidos en los Términos de Referencia para la consultoría:
“Estudio para la selección de un mercado objetivo para la exportación de Lúcuma y
la elaboración de plan de acción para promover las exportaciones del referido
producto al mercado seleccionado”.
El presente documento constituye el informe preliminar de la consultoría, que
incluye, como se estipula en el contrato, sólo los puntos 1-4 descritos en los
Términos de Referencia.
El informe consta de un total de 37 vistas (diapositivas) elaboradas por la empresa
consultora – Tiara International Conuslting, con apoyo de au asociada para temas
agrarios, ACM Perú.
July 17, 2015
2
ANÁLISIS DE LOS CULTIVOS DE LÚCUMA
EXISTENTES Y SU PRODUCCIÓN
1.1 Evaluar la extensión de tierras cultivadas con Lúcuma .
– Total hectáreas de lúcuma: Si bien las cifras oficiales señalan alrededor de 850 ha,
ese dato no se ajusta a la realidad del cultivo.
– Los especialistas, conjuntamente con los asociados de Prolúcuma, consideran que
existen por encima de 1500 ha plantadas (entre 1700 y 1800).
– Sólo en Huaral hay más de 100 (Prolucuma Huaral).
– Total de hectáreas en producción actualmente 500 – 600 ha hasta 800 quizás y total
de hectáreas en crecimiento 700 a 800 ha.
– Los beneficiarios consideran que es importante el tema de calidad y saber cuál es la
oferta de calidad y no saber cuántas hectáreas hay en general.
1.2 Evaluar la producción de Lúcuma en términos de rendimiento por hectárea.
– En Promedio se ha llegado hasta 15 toneladas y pudiera ser más si es que no
existiera alternancia y se tuvieran ecotipos seleccionados por lugar de producción,
con poca variabilidad genética.
– Existen 120 biotipos de Lúcuma y hay casos que muestran en una misma chacra
hasta 36 variedades; esta gran diversidad genética genera una baja producción.
– Cada viverista ofrece sus selecciones al mercado, pero hay poco respaldo científico
en esas ventas y es poco lo que hace el SENASA para garantizar la pureza y la
sanidad vegetal en los plantones.
1.3 Estimar el crecimiento de las áreas cultivadas en los últimos diez años.
– La data es insuficiente para poder determinar este punto.
July 17, 2015
3
ANÁLISIS DE LOS CULTIVOS DE LÚCUMA
EXISTENTES Y SU PRODUCCIÓN (CONT.)
1.4 Estimar el crecimiento de la producción de Lúcuma el mismo periodo.
–
La producción total por hectárea (el rendimiento/ha) se va a incrementar en el Perú
en los próximos años, dado que las plantaciones mdernas sembradas en los últimos
5-8 años empezarán a alcanzar sus máximos rendimientos, elevando el ratio
promedio de Tm/ha. Sin embargo, es difícil obtener una cifra confiable de esto.
1.5 Estimar el costo de producción de Lúcuma.
–
–
–
–
–
El riego tecnificado es recomendable en algunas áreas de la costa y es el costo más
alto dentro de los componentes de los costos de instalación.
US$ 2500/ha (riego tecnificado) vs. US$ 850/ha con baja tecnologia (riego por
gravedad).
Si bien algunas plantaciones en la costa son conducidas por riego por gravedad, dado
que el Peru es una de las zonas más secas de todo el hemisferio, en el mediano plazo,
será imprescindible la instalación de riego tecnificado.
El costo del manejo en comparación con otros frutales es mucho menor,
especialmente porque la lúcuma se considera un cultivo rústico que requiere
aplicaciones de controladores fitosanitarios en menor frecuencia.
Costo de mantenimiento fluctúa entre US$ 1000 a US$ 1200 el primer año;
dependiendo del sistema de riego que se haya considerado. Los costos de
mantenimiento del cultivo (s/incluir cosecha) son de unos US$ 850 del segundo año
en adelante.
July 17, 2015
4
ANÁLISIS DE LOS CULTIVOS DE LÚCUMA
EXISTENTES Y SU PRODUCCIÓN (CONT.)
1.6 Enumerar los beneficios medicinales del uso de Lúcuma como
dietético.
–
complemento
Este punto no se consideró aplicable. En todo caso, de manera popular se conoce que
la pepa de la lúcuma es buena para controlar la caída del cabello. Fruta con gran
cantidad de proteínas, carbohidratos y azúcares. También contiene vitaminas y
minerales. En todo caso no se considera la lúcuma un cultivo cuya aceptación en el
mercado este estrechamente vinculada a sus propiedades nutraceúticas, por lo que
este tema no se desarolló a profundidad. Más aun, para explotar estas cualidades,
las supuestas propiedades deberán estar respaldadas por estudios clínicos a nivel
internacional
1.7 Estimar el crecimiento del área de cultivo contra el incremento de
rendimiento/ha
–
La data es insuficiente para poder determinar este punto.
July 17, 2015
5
Departmento
Amazonas
Ancash
Apurimac
arequipa
Ayacucho
Cajamarca
Cusco
Huancavelica
Huanuco
Ica
Junin
La Libertad
Lambayeque
Lima
Loreto
Madre de Dios
Moquegua
Pasco
Piura
Puno
San Martin
Tacna
Tumbes
Ucayali
Total
Promedio Nacional
July 17, 2015
Total de Hectarias
cultivadas con
Lúcuma
Total producción en
Tm
Rendimiento
promedio por
Hectaria
15
8
10
43
44
3
14
5
15
8
36
13
268
7
82
29
46
355
245
24
62
72
98
33
298
113
2883
40
5467
3739
4600
8256
5568
8000
4429
14400
6533
4125
8278
8692
10757
5714
3
18
6000
53
202
3811
545
4600
8444
6
Departmento
Precio promedio x Kg
Amazonas
Ancash
0.79
Apurimac
1.27
arequipa
0.76
Ayacucho
1.54
Cajamarca
0.76
Cusco
0.85
Huancavelica
1.16
Huanuco
1.22
Ica
1.52
Junin
0.98
La Libertad
1.26
Lambayeque
0.79
Lima
1.18
Loreto
0.4
Madre de Dios
Moquegua
2.5
Pasco
Piura
0.63
Puno
San Martin
Tacna
Tumbes
Ucayali
Promedio Nacional
1.15
July 17, 2015
7
Tumbes
Piura
Lambayeque
La Libertad
Cajamarca
Amazonas
San Martin
Ancash
Lima y Callao
Ica
Huanuco
Pasco
Junin
Huancavelica
Ayacucho
Apurimac
Cusco
Puno
Madre de Dios
Arequipa
Moquegua
Tacna
Loreto
Ucayali
Nacional
July 17, 2015
Área Con Aptitud
Fruticola
80000
255000
270000
240000
155000
235000
355000
180000
215000
165000
345000
85000
372000
73000
143000
43000
500000
291000
865000
385000
40000
120000
1147000
1050000
7609000
Area Cultivada
2745
30325
6672
8337
11144
9442
25389
3275
28151
10062
18717
7908
36500
3224
5509
1862
8877
4370
1709
4090
1111
4116
41777
43542
318854
Porcentaje
3.4
11.9
2.5
3.5
7.2
4
7.2
1.8
3.1
6.1
5.4
9.3
9.8
4.4
3.9
4.3
1.8
1.5
0.2
1.1
2.8
3.4
3.6
4.1
4.2
8
VENTAJAS Y DESVENTAJAS DE LA LÚCUMA
Ventajas:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
De acuerdo a los actuales clientes, el sabor y el aroma son los prinicplaes atractivos. También el
color.
Las tendencias mundiales hacia lo étnico y el probar productos nuevos son una ventaja para la
lúcuma.
La parte industrial no aumenta no tiene un alto impacto en el costo de producción de derivados. Es
decir, daría igual procesar una lúcuma o un mango; por lo que se considera que los costos de
procesamientos no incrementan el precio comparándolo con otras frutas.
El árbol es rústico, tiene pocas plagas y enfermedades
Frutal semi caducifolio, adaptado desde el nivel del mar hasta los 2800 msnm.
El cultivo de la lúcuma se adapta a diferentes clases de suelo, teniendo tolerancia media a la
salinidad. El ph óptimo de este es 7 (neutro).
Este cultivo por sus características es posible de llevarlo de forma casi orgánica, con un mínimo
indispensable de agroquímicos.
July 17, 2015
9
VENTAJAS Y DESVENTAJAS DE LA LÚCUMA (CONT.)
Desventajas:
– Producto caro: tiene baja productividad y altos costos de instalación porque se
demora 4 a 5 años en entrar en producción (costo acumulado de instalación y
mantenimiento). El costo final de producción por kilo repercute en su potencial precio
de venta.
– Heterogeneidad de producto: Eso también se debe a que los pequeños productores
tienen pocas hectáreas con una alta diversidad genética, enfrenteda además a una
diversidad de limas y a tecnologías de manejo, que finalmente producen calidades
distintas.
– No está estandarizada la planta ni el producto cosechado. Los parámetros de
distinción entre primera, segunda y tercerca, varían.
– El precio de la pulpa ofrecido en los mercados internacionales, es demasiado caro y el
cliente pierde interés.
– Falta de estrategias de promoción y difusión de la información por parte de Prolúcuma.
– Falta de cantidad de hectáreas y estacionalidad hace difícil poder programar los
volúmenes de exportación.
– En verano la Lúcuma es muy rica amarilla pero en invierno cambia, puede ofrecer 4
colores: blanquisca, blanca dulce, blanca desabrida y marronesca – los expertos
recomiendan que hay que agostar la planta y no dejar que la fruta salga en invierno.
July 17, 2015
10
Productividad de la Lúcuma en Condiciones Óptimas
25
20
TM
15
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Año
July 17, 2015
11
LA LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS
2.1 y 2.2 Identificar las características, nombres y ventajas de los derivados de la
Lúcuma.
– Pulpa: producto libre de cutículas, cáscara y pepa. Se ha logrado hasta un 65% de
rendimiento; dependiendo de la temporada. Conversion 2 a 1 de fruta a pulpa.
– Congelado:
trozos IQF
trozos congelado en bloques
pasta - de producción
– manual
– mecánica.
– Harina: Conversion de fruta fresca a harina es 5 a 1. Contiene humedad de 10%
máximo. Adecuadamente almacenado (cerrado herméticamente, en ambiente fresco,
seco y oscuro) puede durar hasta doce meses.
– Liofilizado: tiene un sabor más intenso que la harina y conserva el aroma.
Conversion de fruta fresca a liofilizado es 5 a 1 igual que para la harina. Es un
producto con un mercado más específico; dado que es un poco complicado de utilizar.
La mayoría de sistemas agroindustriales para producir derivados lácteos (yogures y/o
helados) utilizan pulpas de frutas congeladas. Su humedad final es de 4% máximo.
– Pulpa congelada: congelada por el sistema de túnel por aire forzado, logrando una
temperatura estable de -18 °C. en el centro térmico del producto.
July 17, 2015
12
LA LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS (CONT.)
2.3 Hacer una evaluación de la producción de cada derivado.
–
En parte ha sido respondido en el punto 2.1 – 2.2. Más aún, los volúmenes producidos y exportados
son aún muy pequeños y dispersos, para poder capitalizar sobre este tipo de evaluación. Ver
siguiente cuadro
2.4 Hacer una evaluación de las propiedades químicas de cada derivado individual.
–
No se tiene suficiente información para hacer este tipo de comparación, sin embargo en el siguiente
punto se describen algunas propiedades generales de cada derivado.
2.5 Valor agregado en cada derivado.
–
–
–
–
El valor agregado es un procesamiento simple dado que ya sea harina, liofilizado o pulpa se utilizan
como insumos para producir helados, yogurts; etc.
Por un lado el mercado prefiere harina dado que en el caso de los helados es más fácil adicionar
colorante y sabor estandarizado. Además no necesita de una logística tan complicada.
El liofilizado tiene un sabor más intenso; al compararlo con la harina ésta pierde color, sabor y olor y
tiene que se mezclado para poder obtener el producto deseado; sin embargo con liofilizado son
pocas las propiedades fisicas que se pierden.
El producto de mayor potencial parece ser el de pulpa congelada porque las empresas de derivados
lácteos está más acostumbrada a incorporar ese tipo de materia prima en su proceso.
2.6 Equipamiento e infraestructura necesarios para la produccion de los distintos derivados.
–
Se definió la maquinaria y equipo necesario para cada uno de los derivados exportados.
consultora está introduciendo esta información para generar los flujos de caja respectivos.
July 17, 2015
La
13
Cuadro N° 5: Evolución de las exportaciones de Lúcuma por Presentación (en US$ FOB) - Año 2000 a Junio 2006
DESCRIPCIÓN
CHOCOLATE
CONGELADA
FLAN
FRESCA
GALLETA
HARINA
HELADO
MERMELADA
OTROS
PASTA
POLVO
PULPA
PURE
Total general
2,000
44,148
2,156
0
994
21,226
8,178
624
0
214
7
0
157
0
77,704
2,001
4,965
5,080
0
387
78,229
5,902
2
48
1,289
7,851
50
24,208
8
128,019
2,002
0
5
0
3,613
122,985
7,906
6
2,501
1,297
252
476
13,364
21
152,426
2,003
0
488
1,000
43,702
25,580
18,295
104
0
3,114
8,355
1,538
12,328
540
115,044
2,004
0
13,497
3,874
11,951
8,828
3,285
3,402
2,357
3,042
1,094
901
117,749
9
169,988
2,005
2
4
4,564
1,054
21,586
18,883
7,397
22
3,354
1,847
9,869
51,122
7
119,710
2,006
513
0
1,868
6,477
5,493
4,153
1,898
727
1,044
34
856
21,072
1
44,133
Total
49,628
21,230
11,306
68,178
283,927
66,601
13,432
5,654
13,354
19,440
13,690
240,001
585
807,025
Fuente: SUNAT
Elaborado por: PROLUCUMA
Cuadro N° 6: Evolución de las exportaciones de Lúcuma por Presentación (En Kg.) - Año 2000 a Marzo 2006
DESCRIPCIÓN
CHOCOLATE
CONGELADA
FLAN
FRESCA
GALLETA
HARINA
HELADO
MERMELADA
OTROS
PASTA
POLVO
PULPA
PURE
Total general
2,000
11,933
1,028
0
672
13,026
793
113
0
148
7
0
54
0
27,773
2,001
2,342
2,125
0
217
55,117
1,393
12
20
283
2,201
10
16,700
12
80,433
2,002
0
3
0
1,898
97,432
1,980
1
663
1,034
110
72
7,060
8
110,262
2,003
0
325
777
17,010
20,214
4,967
28
0
1,338
3,168
196
6,351
180
54,555
2,004
0
3,640
1,561
4,151
7,480
589
1,310
397
1,265
207
117
55,566
9
76,292
2,005
0
12
2,245
506
14,609
3,068
3,318
18
1,724
561
784
12,833
6
39,685
2,006
271
0
709
2,522
3,041
627
1,163
125
874
11
94
7,631
5
17,072
Total
14,547
7,134
5,292
26,977
210,920
13,416
5,945
1,223
6,666
6,264
1,273
106,195
220
406,072
Fuente: SUNAT
Elaborado por: PROLUCUMA
July 17, 2015
14
LA LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS (CONT.)
2.7 Capital de inversion y costos requeridos para la produccion de cada derivado
– Precio de Lúcuma puesta en planta es mínimo de S/. 1.50/kg. Hay empresas que
pagan en cualquier época S/. 2.00/kg. sólo por fruta de 4 a 6.5 cm. En algunas
oportunidades a los productores se les paga sólo S/. 1.45/kg. dependiendo del tamaño
de la fruta. Otras empresas llegan a pagar hasta S/. 2.7 -2.8; sin embargo en
temporada baja han llegado ha pagar hasta S/. 3.3.
– Para procesar pulpa se descarta el 50% y sólo el otro 50% es producto terminado; es
decir el rendimiento es de 2 a 1 en pulpa.
– Para pulpa, la inversion es mínima, la mano de obra no es cara para 200 cajas en un
dia (5 kgs, 1 ton. de prod. terminado) se necesitan 30 personas, todo es manual.
– Mano de obra, pulpear, congelar US$ 1.70 (Costo valor agregado S/. 4)
– En resumen, los costos de producción es aproximadamente S/.6/kg.
July 17, 2015
15
Gráfico N° 1: Evolución de las exportaciones de Lúcuma (US$
FOB)
Año 2,000 a Junio 2,006
180,000
160,000
140,000
US $
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2,000
2,001
2,002
2,003
2,004
2,005
2,006
Fuente: SUNAT
Elaboración: Prolúcuma
July 17, 2015
16
Gráfico N° 2: Principales presentaciones exportadas de la Lúcuma Año 2000 a junio 2006
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2,000
2,001
2,002
2,003
2,004
2,005
CHOCOLATE
CONGELADA
FLAN
FRESCA
GALLETA
HARINA
MERMELADA
OTROS
PASTA
POLVO
PULPA
PURE
2,006
HELADO
Fuente: SUNAT
Elaboración: Prolúcuma
July 17, 2015
17
LISTADO DE DERIVADOS DE LÚCUMA
Y SUS PRECIOS DE EXPORTACIÓN UNITARIOS
DERIVADOS
Pulpa
Harina
Embarque Mixto
Pasta
Congelada
Dulce
Al Natural
Otras Presentaciones
Presentación No Especificada
July 17, 2015
2001
2005
US$/KG US$/KG
1.39
4.11
0
3.22
2.29
4.06
1.62
6.25
2.40
2.26
6.09
4.49
2.97
0
2.47
1.65
5.78
0
18
IDENTIFICACIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE MERCADOS
POTENCIALES
3.1 Se realizará un taller (taller I) participativo con los principales agentes
vinculados al sector, que son parte de la cadena de valor de los productos
derivados de la Lúcuma con el propósito de tomar en cuenta la problemática y
la agenda actual para la selección de mercados.
– El taller se realizó por la mañana del día Martes 8 de Agosto de 2006. Particparon
agroindustriales, exportadpres, productores, asociados de Prolúcuma y técnicos
especialistas en el tema de lúcuma.
3.2
Se hará un análisis de la información,
(publicaciones) disponible para determinar:
documentación
y
bibliografía
– La información científica y técnica de producción de lúcuma y sus derivados es
sumamente restringida, por no decir nula. Por ende, la mayoría de interpretaciones se
hicieron considerando las experiencias de los asistentes a los talleres.
3.2.1 Las formas y presentaciones más convenientes para la exportación de
Lúcuma procesada.
July 17, 2015
Pulpa de Lúcuma Congelada
Harina de Lúcuma
Liofilizado de Lúcuma
19
IDENTIFICACIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE MERCADOS
POTENCIALES (CONT.)
3.3 Se levantará información estadística confiable y desagregada. Esto incluirá precio FOB y
CIF, volumen y destinos.
– Precio de venta al público es de US$ 2.20 ó US$ 2.30/libra de pulpa. Es decir el precio
por un kilogramo es de unos US$ 5.
– Hay productores que compran lúcuma de Noviembre a Febrero y lo vende en
Setiembre u Octubre; entonces se
tiene un costo de almacenamiento en frío
adicional, de US$ 30 mensuales. El producto congelado dura hasta 1.5 años en
almacen.
– Los costos involucrados son: costo de bajar el contenedor; almacenaje; comisiones de
venta y de crédito; costo de bolsas y cajas; costo de transporte; exportación, costo de
FDA (riesgo no tarifario de hasta US$ 800); costo de “intensive search” en USA (más
de US$ 1,000 para ver si el contenedor contiene droga). En caso que el contenedor
queda en “hold” hay que pagarle los gastos a la naviera porque el producto no se
puede bajar del barco. A veces la autorizacion del FDA se puede demorar más de un
mes. En cargas secas se tiene más problemas que en cargas congeladas. En
congelado se puede quedar la carga inmobilizada de 15 a 20 días.
– No hay seguro contra las inspecciones - el importador asume todos los costos.
– En un contenedor se pueden transportar de 4 a 5 TM de pulpa. Por lo general los
importadores compran producto un mes antes que se le acabe el contenedor anterior,
por lo que generalmente se tiene una rotación de 3 a 4 meses.
– Aproximadamente US$ 50,000 es el costo de un contenedor lleno de producto. El
flete no tiene un impacto fuerte; en cambio el precio final si tiene gran impacto en
poder acceder al mercado o no.
– Todos estos datos se incluirán en los flujos a desarrollar en el modelo financiero final.
July 17, 2015
20
EXPORTACIONES DE DERIVADOS DE LÚCUMA 2001
Pulp-52.47
Harina-13.35
EmbMix-0
Pasta-17.51
Congld-11.33
Dulce-2.45
Al Natl-0.86
Oth Presn-1.56
Prsn NoSp-0.46
July 17, 2015
21
EXPORTACIONES DE DERIVADOS DE LÚCUMA 2005
Pulp-45.90
Harina-19.13
Emb Mix-16.09
Pasta-2.83
Congld-0
Dulce-9.11
Al Natl-1.65
Oth Prsn-5.78
Prsn NSp-0
July 17, 2015
22
EXPORTACIONES DE LÚCUMA A VARIOS PAÍSES
EN UN AÑO TÍPICO
USA - 28
JAPÓN - 17
ESPAÑA 9
OT-AMCA
OT-UE-5
OT-UE-0.5
OTROS
July 17, 2015
23
ÍNDICE DE CRECIMIENTO DE LAS EXPORTACIONES
DE LOS DERIVADOS DE LA LÚCUMA
Tasa de Crecimiento Compuesto Anual
(TCCA)
2001-04
2001-05
TCCA de Ingresos por Exportaciones
TCCA de Exportaciones en Ton
53.19%
46.08%
9.86%
(6.14%)
July 17, 2015
24
PRECIOS PROMEDIO DE EXPORTACION
DE LA LÚCUMA - $/KG
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
$/KG
1.5
1
0.5
0
2001
July 17, 2015
2002
2003
2004
2005
25
REVISIÓN DEL MERCADO ACTUAL Y PROYECTADO
EXPORTACIONES PERUANAS DE JUGOS / CONCENTRADOS (Tm)
(Proyección al 2008)
2001
Varias
pulpas *
Pulpa de
Lucuma
Total
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
3,244
3,321
3,892
4,359
4,882
5,467
6,124
6,859
3
1
16
64
320
480
800
960
3,247
3,322
3,908
4,423
5,202
5,947
6,924
7,819
Source: ComexPeru
July 17, 2015
26
EXPORTACIONES PERUANAS DE JUGOS / CONCENTRADOS (En
miles de dólares)
Varias
Pulpas
Pulpa de
Lúcuma
TOTAL
2001
2002
2003
2004
6,488
6,642
7,784
8,718
9
3
40
6,497
6,645
7,824
2005
2006
2007
2008
9,764
10,935
12,247
13,717
160
800
1,200
2,000
2,400
8,878
10,564
12,135
14,247
16,117
* Precios: US$ 2.5 lúcuma (del 2005) y US$ 2 promedio para otras pulpas
** 80% de la producción es proyectada para fines de exportación.
July 17, 2015
27
PRODUCCIÓN ESTIMADA DE PULPA DE LUCUMA (TM)
2001
6
2002
15
2003
20
2004
80
2005
400
2006
600
2007
2008
1,000
1,200
PARTICIPACIÓN ESTIMADA DE PROLUCUMA EN LAS EXPORTACIONES
PERUANAS DE JUGOS / CONCENTRADOS
Participación
de Prolucuma
En las
exportaciones
de jugos /
concentrados
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0.12%
0.04%
0.41%
1.45%
6.15%
18.07%
11.55%
12.28%
*El porcentaje de participación de Prolucuma en las exportaciones de jugos/
concentrados es obtenida de la división de las exportaciones proyectadas de pulpa de
lúcuma entre las exportaciones de Jugos/ Concentrados de todas las demás frutas.
July 17, 2015
28
IDENTIFICACIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE MERCADOS
POTENCIALES (CONT.)
3.3.1 Selección de una terna de los potenciales países/mercados donde el
producto pueda ingresar exitosamente.
El principal destino es EEUU; sin embargo han habido unas exportaciones a
Chile y Japón, el resto de la produccion se vende en el mercado local.
Se investigarán los usos más importantes del producto en USA y también las
exportaciones chilenas (mercados y usos).
A partir de las experiencias de exportaciones actuales, la consultora preparó
expresamente una matriz para evaluar los mercados potenciales de manera
participativa.
3.4 Se realizará una presentación y se elaborarán documentos informativos sobre
los mercados seleccionados y los criterios utilizados para la selección de la
terna de mercados.
– Se hizo una presentación en el taller I y se discutieron los temas referidos en el
programa que se adjunta.
July 17, 2015
29
PROGRAMA DEL TALLER I
I.- Coordinación y Presentación de los Puntos a Discutir:
II.- Discusión sobre el punto 1:
1.
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
ANÁLISIS DE LOS CULTIVOS DE LÚCUMA EXISTENTES Y SU PRODUCCIÓN:
Evaluar la extensión de tierras cultivadas y rendimientos de Lúcuma.
Estimar el crecimiento de las áreas cultivadas y producción de Lúcuma en los últimos
diez años
Estimar el costo de producción de Lúcuma.
Estimar el crecimiento del área de cultivo contra el incremento de rendimiento por
hectárea.
III.- Coffee Break:
IV.- Discusión sobre el punto 2:
2.
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
9:10 am
9:45 am
11:15 am
11:45 am
LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS
Identificar las características y ventajas de los derivados de la Lúcuma.
Hacer una evaluación de la producción y propiedades químicas de cada derivado
individual.
Valor agregado en cada derivado.
Equipamiento e infraestructura necesarios para la producción de los distintos derivados.
Capital de inversión y costos requeridos para la producción de cada derivado.
V.- Conclusiones:
July 17, 2015
1:00 pm
30
SELECCIÓN DE UN MERCADO OBJETIVO
4.1 Resultados del taller previo.
– Como resultados iniciales se expuso la información obtenida en una reunión
de trabajo que se estableció el 13 de Julio, en las instalaciones del AGAP y
Prolúcuma con los directivos de dicha institución, así como con la presencia
de representantes de Prompex y de la empresa Liofilizadora del Pacífico.
– En dicha reunión se le encargó a la consultora que estudiara las
posibilidades de mercado con los fabricantes de helados, yogurt, cereales y
milk-shake en los países seleccionados.
– En el taller II se hizo una presentación y se discutieron los temas referidos
en el programa que se adjunta.
– En el taller II se contó con la presencia de productores, asociados a
Prolúcuma, exportadores, industriales y técnicos especialistas en el tema
de producción de lúcuma.
July 17, 2015
31
ASISTENTES A LOS TALLERES I Y II
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Empresa
Frigorifico esmeralda
NISA
NISA
MINAG
INIA
AGAP
Belmont Foods
Liofilizadora del Pacifico
Prolucuma Huaral - Presi
Prolucuma Huaral - VicePresi
Prolucuma Huaral - Secretario
Prompex
Representante del Senor Jaime Zignago
Inmobiliaria Gallos SA
El Lúcumo
El Lúcumo
El Lúcumo
ACM
ACM
ACM
ACM
Tiara
July 17, 2015
Representante
Hugo Valdez Osorio
Gastón Urbina
Javier Delgado
Jorge Amaya
Willy Daga
Sandro Farfan
Juan Daniel Payet
Lorena Olavarria
Ing. Luis Enrique Olivares Alegria
Abraham Salinas
Guillermo Suarez Toledo
Juan Carlos Mandujano
Valentin Garcia
Gonzalo Roselló
Telésforo Sojo Sullón
Maria Barreto Grundel
Stefan Bederski Fischer
Tony Salas
Gisela Camminati
Cesar Paredes
Rosario Alva
Trevor Norris
Asistencia
Asistió
No asistió
No asistió
No asistió
Asistió
No asistió
Asistió
Asistió
Asistió
Asistió
Asistió
No asistió
No asistió
No asistió
Asistió
No asistió
No asistió
Asistió
Asistió
Asistió
Asistió
Asistió
32
SELECCIÓN DE UN MERCADO OBJETIVO (CONT.)
4.2 Elaboración de material de trabajo e informativo para los participantes de este
taller decisivo.
– Ver Programa del Taller II
4.3 Coordinaciones logísticas para la realización del taller
– Taller II realizado de 2-6 pm en el Hotel Basquiat Inn ubicado en Av. Dos de
Mayo 1421 (alt. Cdra. 14 Javier Prado Oeste)
4.4 Identificación y convocatoria a los principales agentes del sector.
– Ver lista de Participantes y Asistentes
4.5 Presentación de una terna de los potenciales países/mercados a exportar y el
análisis que condujo a su selección.
– Ver Matriz Resultado del Taller II
4.6 Selección del mercado objetivo al cual se orientará el plan de acción.
– Ver Matriz Resultado del Taller II
July 17, 2015
33
PROGRAMA DEL TALLER II
I.- Coordinación y Presentación de los Puntos a Discutir:
II.- Discusión sobre el punto 3:
2:05 pm
2:15 pm
3.
IDENTIFICACIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE MERCADOS POTENCIALES
3.1 Se hará un análisis de la información, documentación y bibliografía (publicaciones)
relevante disponible para determinar las formas y presentaciones más convenientes
(pulpa, harina, etc.) para la exportación de Lúcuma procesada.
3.2 Se levantará información estadística confiable y desagregada. Esto incluirá precio FOB
y CIF, volumen y destinos.
3.3 Selección de una terna de los potenciales países/mercados donde el producto pueda
ingresar exitosamente – definición de criterios críticos.
III.- Coffee Break:
IV.- Discusión sobre el punto 4:
2:45 pm
3:00 pm
4.
SELECCIÓN DE UN MERCADO OBJETIVO
Seleccionar entre la terna de candidatos definida cual será el (los) mercado(s) objetivo para
la elaboración del plan de acción de exportación de Lúcuma, utilizando una cartilla-matriz
elaborada por TIARA y ACM.
V.- Conclusiones y Clausura:
July 17, 2015
5:30 pm
34
ELEMENTOS DE IDENTIFICACIÓN Y
CRITERIO DE ANÁLISIS PARA EL MERCADO POTENCIAL
Desarrollo de una matriz con un sistema de puntaje que
consideración los siguientes parámetros:
Opinión y percepción del cliente sobre el producto.
Segmentación del mercado basado en:
Nivel de Ingresos
Diversidad Étnica
Ubicación Geográfica
Actual demanda del mercado para los derivados de
productos similares como frutas tropicales y pulpas.
Sistema existente para la tasación de productos similares a
Elasticidad de la demanda para lúcuma, sus derivados y
similares.
tome en
lúcuma o
la lúcuma.
productos
Definición de la distinta ponderación de cada una de las variables/factores
presentados para la selección del mercado ideal para desarrollar el plan de
acción.
July 17, 2015
35
CRITERIOS PARA LA SELECCIÓN DEL MERCADO - LÚCUMA
ORDENE LOS PAISES SEGÚN LOS SIGUIENTES CRITERIOS
USA
JAPÓN
UK
FRANCIA
ALEMANIA
ESPAÑA
COREA
POBLACIÓN (MILLONES DE HABITANTES)
294.49
127.78
60.57
60.64
82.71
TAMAÑO DE LA ECONOMÍA - PBI (US$ BILLONES)
11,483
3,603
1,727
1,683
2,293
921
675
PBI PER CAPITA (US$)
38,994
28,196
28,513
27,759
27,720
22,758
13,746
40.4814
49.08
SEGMENTACIÓN DEL NIVEL DE INGRESOS
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS MAYORES A US$ 200K
2.25%
1.50%
1.00%
0.75%
1.25%
0.15%
0.10%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS ENTRE US$ 150k & US$ 200K
2.50%
1.85%
1.15%
0.90%
1.40%
0.55%
0.25%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS ENTRE US$ 100K & US$ 150K
8.50%
4.95%
3.50%
3.25%
3.75%
1.37%
0.75%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS ENTRE US$ 50K & US$ 100K
14.25%
9.68%
11.15%
8.95%
9.15%
5.95%
2.11%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS ENTRE US$ 25K & US$ 50K
16.43%
15.12%
17.70%
21.66%
16.25%
23.52%
3.34%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS MENORES A US$ 25K
21.15%
22.72%
41.00%
46.30%
41.00%
52.00%
74.68%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS MAYORES A US$ 50K
62.42%
62.16%
41.30%
32.04%
42.75%
24.48%
25.32%
DEMANDA DE MERCADO PARA HELADO (US$ MM)
5,292
2,296
1,088
1,090
1,486
727
882
DEMANDA DE MERCADO PARA YOGURT (US$ MM)
7,056
3,061
1,451
1,453
1,982
970
1,176
TAMAÑO DE MERCADO PARA OTROS PRODUCTOS (US$ MM)
1,235
536
254
254
347
170
206
TAMAÑO DE MERCADO PARA SABORES DE HELADO Y YOGURT
1,358
589
279
280
381
187
226
(10% DEL MERCADO DE HELADO/YOGURT)
PERCEPCIÓN DEL SABOR DE LA LÚCUMA
30%
45%
25%
35%
37%
60%
75%
ACTITUD FAVORABLE DEL CONSUMIDOR
35%
55%
35%
45%
47%
70%
85%
NIVELES DE PRECIO Y MÁRGENES
7.50
8.50
7.25
7.10
7.60
6.00
7.25
COSTO DE PROMOCIÓN PARA LLEGAR AL CONSUMIDOR
5.00
4.00
4.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
8.00
FACILIDAD DE ACCESO A RED DE DISTRIB. DE LOS FABRICANTES DE HELADO Y YOGURT
7.00
5.00
6.25
5.00
6.00
6.00
6.50
FLETE
9.00
5.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
5.00
5.00
10.00
8.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
8.00
8.50
8.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
5.50
9.00
EVALÚE EL SISTEMA DE PRICING EXISTENTE
ARANCELES
BARRERAS NO ARANCELARIAS (FDA, POLÍTICAS, NOVEL FOODS, CERTIFC. ETC.)
VENTAS ACTUALES DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS (US$ MM)
0.04
0.02
DEMANDA POTENCIAL DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS (US$ MM)
13.58
15.31
7.26
7.26
9.91
4.85
5.88
VALOR DEL 2% DE PARTICIPACIÓN DE MERCADO (US$)
27.17
30.61
14.51
14.53
19.82
9.70
11.76
PBI PER CAPITA
1.00
0.72
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.58
0.35
NIVEL DE INGRESOS SOBRE US$ 50K
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.51
0.68
0.39
0.41
TAMAÑO DEL MERCADO PARA HELADO
TAMAÑO DEL MERCADO PARA YOGURT
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
SEGMENTO DE MERCADO PARA OTROS PRODUCTOS
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
SEGMENTO DE MERCADO PARA SABORES
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
ACTITUD FAVORABLE DEL CONSUMIDOR
0.41
0.65
0.41
0.53
0.55
0.82
1.00
PRICING EN EL MERCADO
0.88
1.00
0.85
0.84
0.89
0.71
0.85
COSTO DE PROMOCIÓN
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.50
0.63
1.00
ACCESO A LA DISTRIBUCIÓN
1.00
0.71
0.89
0.71
0.86
0.86
0.93
FLETE
1.00
0.56
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.56
0.56
ARANCELES
BARRERAS NO TARIFARIAS (FDA, POLÍTICAS, NOVEL FOODS, ETC.)
1.00
0.80
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.80
0.94
0.94
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.61
1.00
DEMANDA ACTUAL DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS
1.00
0.54
DEMANDA POTENCIAL DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS
0.89
1.00
0.47
0.47
0.65
0.32
0.38
VALOR DEL 2% DE PARTICIPACIÓN DE MERCADO
0.89
1.00
0.47
0.47
0.65
0.32
0.38
272.86
184.44
120.19
114.55
129.33
119.70
145.45
VARIABLES NORMALIZADAS
PUNTAJE DE LOS PAISES RESPECTIVOS
July 17, 2015
-
-
-
-
-
PONDER. (0 - 25)
-
-
-
-
-
36
MATRIZ DE RESULTADOS – TALLER II
Variables a Ponderar - cuáles son las más importantes, las que determinarán si
debo escoger a un país específico para para definir mi estrategia de penetración de
mercado...
Países Seleccionados
PAISES
VARIABLES NORMALIZADAS
USA
JAPÓN
UK
FRANCIA ALEMANIA
ESPAÑA
COREA
PONDER. (0 25)
PBI PER CAPITA
18.5
1.00
0.72
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.58
0.35
NIVEL DE INGRESOS SOBRE US$ 50K
17.9
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.51
0.68
0.39
0.41
TAMAÑO DEL MERCADO PARA HELADO
17.4
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
TAMAÑO DEL MERCADO PARA YOGURT
3.8
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
SEGMENTO DE MERCADO PARA OTROS PRODUCTOS
16.6
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
SEGMENTO DE MERCADO PARA SABORES
20.3
1.00
0.43
0.21
0.21
0.28
0.14
0.17
ACTITUD FAVORABLE DEL CONSUMIDOR
10.5
0.41
0.65
0.41
0.53
0.55
0.82
1.00
PRICING EN EL MERCADO
12.5
0.88
1.00
0.85
0.84
0.89
0.71
0.85
COSTO DE PROMOCIÓN
20.9
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.50
0.63
1.00
ACCESO A LA DISTRIBUCIÓN
22.0
1.00
0.71
0.89
0.71
0.86
0.86
0.93
FLETE
8.5
1.00
0.56
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.56
0.56
ARANCELES
BARRERAS NO TARIFARIAS (FDA, POLÍTICAS, NOVEL FOODS, ETC.)
10.4
1.00
0.80
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.80
22.5
0.94
0.94
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.61
1.00
DEMANDA ACTUAL DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS
17.9
1.00
0.54
-
-
-
-
-
DEMANDA POTENCIAL DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS
22.1
0.89
1.00
0.47
0.47
0.65
0.32
0.38
235.47
166.02
114.49
105.96
120.11
108.23
129.82
(VALOR DEL 2% DE PARTICIPACIÓN DE MERCADO)
PUNTAJE DE LOS PAISES RESPECTIVOS
July 17, 2015
37
CONCLUSIONES
El Proyecto deberá incluir los siguientes temas de análisis:
Se deberá promover la homogenizacion en los conceptos de calidad de producto, a partir
de normativas de estandarizacion de producto – que significa “calidad” – y de la
información de documentos técnicos del cultivo.
Necesidad de un interlocutor (Prolúcuma) que pueda implementar las estrategias que el
proyecto finalmente defina. Prolúcuma no muestra aún las capacidades para poder cumplir
con ese papel – hay necesidad de fortalecer sus capacidades institucionales.
La lúcuma es un producto “caro” comparado con los precios de otros frutales, dado que
tiene baja produccion por hectarea – el proyecto deberá plantear a qué precio se puede
ofrecer el producto si se incrementa sus rendimientos.
El precio en el mercado
internacional de pulpas congeladas sí se considera un “deal braker”.
Se definieron seis factores claves para la toma de decision del mercado los cuales señalan a
USA y Japón como principales paises para comercializar los derivados de lúcuma y éstos
serán tomados en cuenta para el plan de acceso.
Para que el proyecto sea efectivo, se deberá plantear políticas públicas vinculadas a la
promocion de la inversion privada.
Se acordó que los participantes completaran los datos económicos para elaborar los flujos
de caja respectivos a producción de campo, planta y agroexportación industrial.
July 17, 2015
38
LUCUMA EXPORT MARKET - USA
PHASES II & III REPORT
TARIFF ISSUES
U.S.-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement (USPTA),
Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA),
The Free Trade Agreement (FTA)/Trato del Libre Comercio (TLC):
–
–
–
–
–
–
Presently there are no tariffs on products such as Lucuma from Peru. Although Peru
and the United States have negotiated a holistic free trade agreement (FTA/TLC), as of
December 2006 it has not been fully ratified by both countries for unrelated internal
political reasons which occurred in both countries since its negotiation.
Nonetheless, exports from Peru are currently tariff free due to the ongoing Andean
Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) which is due to expire at the end
of 2006.
Due to the election results in the USA of November 2006, which changed the majority
in the US Senate and House of Representatives to the Democrat Party, the future of
the ratification process of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA/TLC) is unclear.
However, it is likely (and assumed for this report) that either the ATPDEA will be
extended (likely) or the Free Trade Agreement will be ratified prior to the swearing-in
of the new Democrat Majority (possible) or the new U.S. Congress will ratify it
immediately (unlikely).
Should there be no preferential trade agreement in force, many of the
assumptions, particularly those dependent to pricing must be reconsidered.
As an “exotic” product, the absence of a trade agreement would affect Lucuma much
less than other Peruvian Exports (such as cotton garments).
July 17, 2015
40
FDA REGULATIONS
Food & Drug Administration (FDA) regulations:
–
The Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness and
Response Act of 2002 requires domestic and foreign facilities that
manufacture, process, pack, or hold food for human or animal consumption
in the U.S. to register with the FDA.
–
Under the same Bioterrorism Act, foreign companies are required to submit
Prior Notice to the FDA before food is imported or offered for import into
the U.S.
July 17, 2015
41
USE OF DIFFERENT FORMS OF LUCUMA
IN DIFFERENT SEGMENTS
Processed lucuma are used as raw materials for the food industry, as
well as the foodservice industry:
1. frozen lucuma pulp & fruit chunks: pulped and frozen - used as an
ingredient for ice-cream, yogurt, juices, cocktails, various desserts, jams,
sweet fillings, and confectionery
2. lucuma “coulis” sauce: used as ice-cream sauce/topping and decoration of
dishes - would mainly be used by the foodservice industry
3. aseptic or sterilized lucuma pulp (bag-in-box pack): does not require
refrigeration - used as a raw material in dessert, yogurt and ice-cream
4. thick lucuma “filling”: sweetened product - used directly as a filling for
doughnuts, cookies, waffles, truffles, etc.
5. lucuma purée: for direct consumption, marketed through supermarkets,
especially as a baby and children’s food
6. dried lucuma (chunks or flour): used as a raw material for ice-cream,
cereal mixes (muesli), and desserts in general
July 17, 2015
42
POTENTIAL MARKET SEGMENTS
Ice cream
Yogurt
Flavored milk & milkshakes
Sweet spreads
Confectionery
Bread & bakery products
Breakfast cereal
Foodservice & restaurants
July 17, 2015
43
INDUSTRY COMMERCIAL EVENTS IN USA
Americas Food & Beverage Show & Conference in Miami, FL – November 8~10, 2006
National Ice Cream Retailers Convention in Savannah, GA – November 8~11, 2006
Expo Comida Latina in New York, NY – November 14~15, 2006
Dairy Forum in Orlando, FL – January 14~17, 2007
Winter Int’l Fancy Food & Confection Show in San Francisco, CA – January 21~23, 2007
World Ag Expo in Tulare, CA – February 14~16, 2007
North America Pizza & Ice Cream Show in Columbus, OH – February 25~26, 2007
Western Candy Conference in San Diego, CA – March 21~25, 2007
SupplySide East Show in Secaucus, NJ – April 30~May 2, 2007
Spring International Fancy Food & Confection Show in Chicago, IL – May 6~8, 2007
Dairy-Deli-Bake Seminar & Expo in Anaheim, CA – June 3~5, 2007
Summer Int’l Fancy Food & Confection Show in New York, NY – July 8~10, 2007
American Bakery Expo in Las Vegas, NV – September 8~10, 2007
National Confectioners Assoc. All Candy Expo in Chicago, IL – September 17~19, 2007
World Dairy Expo in Madison, WI – October 2~6, 2007
International Baking Industry Expo in Orlando, FL – October 7~10, 2007
Worldwide Food Expo in Chicago, IL – October 24~27, USA
July 17, 2015
44
DEMAND FOR SIMILAR PRODUCTS
Mangoes
Peaches
Strawberries
Others
July 17, 2015
45
RANKING OF ICE CREAM FLAVORINGS IN USA
A survey ranked ice cream eating preferences among Americans, and
the percentage of respondents favoring each flavor.
Rank
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Flavor
Vanilla
Chocolate
Strawberry
Butter Pecan
Neapolitan
Chocolate chip
French vanilla
Cookies 'n' cream
Fudge ripple
Praline
Percent
29.0%
8.9%
5.3%
5.3%
4.2%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
2.6%
1.7%
Source: International Ice Cream Association
July 17, 2015
46
ICE CREAM STATISTICS FOR THE
UNITED STATES - I
Total U.S. production of ice cream and related frozen desserts in 2004
amounted to about 1.6 billion gallons, translating to about 21.5 quarts
per person.
Total US Production of Frozen Desserts (Hard & Soft) in Million Gallons
Regular
Ice Cream
1999
972.2
2000
979.6
2001
970.1
2002
1005.0
2003
1015.1
% 2002-3 1.0%
Low & Nonfat
Ice Cream
421.1
404.1
402.6
359.6
373.9
3.8%
Frozen
Yogurt
90.9
94.5
52.6
70.8
68.0
-4.0%
Sherbet
54.5
51.9
64.4
57.0
56.2
-1.4%
Water
Ices
70.3
65.8
71.2
67.6
67.5
-0.0%
Other Frozen
Dairy Products
13.9
11.6
10.5
8.7
7.9
-9.3%
Total Frozen
Products
1622.8
1607.6
1571.4
1568.6
1588.6
1.3%
In 2004, total U.S. sales of ice cream and frozen desserts reached
$21.4 billion. Of that total, $8.1 billion was spent on products for "at
home" consumption, while $13.3 billion was spent on "away from
home" frozen dessert purchases (scoop shops, foodservice and other
retail sales outlets.)
July 17, 2015
47
Per Capita ICE CREAM STATISTICS FOR THE
UNITED STATES - II
Regular Ice
Cream (lbs)
Reduced Fat Ice
Cream (lbs)
Sherbet (lbs)
Other Frozen
Products (lbs)
1995
15.5
7.4
1.3
4.8
1996
15.6
7.5
1.3
3.8
1997
16.1
7.8
1.3
3.2
1998
16.3
8.1
1.3
3.4
1999
16.7
7.5
1.3
3.1
2000
16.7
7.3
1.2
2.9
2001
16.3
7.3
1.2
2.2
2002
16.7
6.5
1.3
2.1
2003
16.4
7.5
1.2
2.0
2004
13.8
7.2
1.1
1.9
2005
14.4
5.9
0.9
1.5
Year
July 17, 2015
48
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - I
Dreyers Grand Ice Cream (subsidiary of Nestle)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.dreyers.com/
5929 College Ave., Oakland, CA 94618
Tel: 510-652-8187
2005 sales: $188.7 million
Dreyers Grand is one of the three largest ice cream producer in the U.S.
The company’s ice cream brands include: Dreyers, Edy’s, Healthy Choice,
and Haagen-Dazs
Dreyers Grand has about 15% market share
July 17, 2015
49
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - II
Good Humor-Breyers Ice Cream / Unilever Ice Cream
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.icecreamusa.com
PO Box 19007, Green Bay, WI 54307
Tel: 920-499-5151
Unilever is one of the three largest manufacturer of branded packaged ice
cream and frozen novelty products in the U.S.
The company’s ice cream brands include: Breyers, Good Humor, Klondike,
Popsicle, and Ben & Jerry’s
Unilever has about 15% market share
Ben & Jerry’s Homemade (subsidiary of Unilever)
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.benjerry.com
30 Community Drive, South Burlington, VT 05403
Tel: 802-846-1500
2005 sales: $272 million
Ben & Jerry’s is a maker of super premium ice cream
The company also operates/franchises more than 430 scoop shops in North
America
July 17, 2015
50
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - III
Blue Bunny (Wells’ Dairy Inc.)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.bluebunny.com
1 Blue Bunny Dr., Le Mars, IA 51031
Tel: 712-546-4000
2005 sales: $850 million
Blue Bunny is one of the three largest manufacturer of ice cream and
frozen desserts in the U.S.
The company’s ice cream brands include: Blue Bunny, Bomb Pop, Carb
Freedom, Sweet Freedom, Health Smart, and Incrediples
Blue Bunny has about 15% market share
July 17, 2015
51
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - IV
Kemps (business segment of HP Hood)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.kemps.com
1270 Energy Lane, St. Paul, MN 55108
Tel: 651-379-6500
Estimated 2005 sales (Hoovers): $750 million
Kemps manufactures and markets milk, ice cream, and related dairy
products
The company’s ice cream brands include: Kemps, Caribou Coffee, Pillsbury,
and Twins
Kemps has about 6%~8% market share
July 17, 2015
52
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - V
CoolBrands International
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.eskimopie.com
4175 Veteran's Memorial Highway, 3rd Fl., Ronkonkoma, NY 11779
Tel: 631-737-9700
2005 sales: $385.1 million
CoolBrands manufactures and distributes ice cream and other frozen treats
The company’s ice cream brands include: Eskimo Pie, Godiva, Disney,
Crayola, Yoplait, Better for Kids, Snapple on Ice, No Pudge, Tropicana, Care
Bears, Trix, WholeFruit, Fruit-a-Freeze, and the Sopranos
CoolBrands has about 4%~5% market share
July 17, 2015
53
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - VI
Blue Bell Creameries
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.bluebell.com
1101 S. Horton, Brenham, TX 77833
Tel: 979-836-7977
Estimated 2005 sales (Hoovers): $280 million
Blue Bell is a regional ice cream manufacturer in the southern U.S.
The company makes ice cream, yogurt, frozen treats, sherbet, low-fat ice
creams, and sugar-free ice creams
Blue Bell manufactures 18 year-round ice cream flavors and 29 rotational
flavors
Blue Bell has about 4% market share
July 17, 2015
54
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - VII
Roberts Dairy
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.robertsdairy.com
2901 Cuming St., Omaha, NE 68131
Tel: 402-344-4321
Estimated 2005 sales (Hoovers): $276.9 million
Roberts Dairy produces fluid milk, cultured and frozen dairy products
The company brands include: Roberts and Hiland-Roberts as well as private
labels
Roberts Dairy has about 1%~2% market share
July 17, 2015
55
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - VIII
Stonyfield Farm
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.stonyfield.com
10 Burton Dr., Londonderry, NH 03053
Tel: 603-473-4040
Estimated 2005 sales (Hoovers): $140 million
Stonyfield is a producer of natural and organic yogurt and ice cream
The company is a leader among health-food store brands
Group Danone owns approximately 85% of Stoneyfield Farm
Stonyfield has less than 1% market share
July 17, 2015
56
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - IX
Ciao Bella Gelato
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.ciaobellagelato.com
231 40th St., Irvington, NJ 07111
Tel: 973-373-1200
Ciao Bella is a manufacturer of gelato and sorbet
The company offers unique flavors such as blueberry, chocolate jalapeno,
fromage blanc, ginger, mango, lychee, passion fruit, cassis, and zabaione
The company’s brands include: Ciao Bella, Sarabeth’s, and Gotham
Ciao Bella manufactures 46 gelato flavors, 33 sorbet flavors, 7 frozen
yogurt flavors, and 8 seasonal flavors
Ciao Bella has less than 1% market share
July 17, 2015
57
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - X
Zambeedo Ice Cream
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.zambeedo.com
38245 Murrieta Hot Springs Rd., #F-105, Murrieta, CA 92563
Tel: 951-461-9932
Zambeedo is a manufacturer of specialty ice cream
The company’s products are sold through health and natural food stores
Zambeedo’s unique flavors include Crème de Rose, Crème de Menthe, and
Crème de Chai
Zambeedo has less than 1% market share
July 17, 2015
58
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - I
Baskin Robbins (Dunkin’ Brands)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.baskinrobbins.com
130 Royall Street, Canton, MA 02021
Tel: 781-737-3000
Estimated 2005 sales (QSR): $555 million
Baskin Robbins operates the world’s largest chain of ice cream specialty
shops
The company owns more than 5,600 retail shops in 40 countries
Baskin Robbins serves 22 permanent ice cream flavors, 12 seasonal flavors,
15 regional flavors, 3 sherbet/sorbet flavors, and 3 frozen yogurt flavors
July 17, 2015
59
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - II
Carvel Corporation (FOCUS Brands)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.carvel.com
200 Glenridge Point Pkwy, Suite 200, Atlanta, GA 30342
Tel: 404-255-3250
Estimated 2005 sales: $86.5 million
Carvel sells soft serve ice cream and other frozen treats, including
character-shaped frozen ice cream cakes
The company has a chain of more than 540 franchised ice cream shops in
more than 25 states, primarily in the Northeast
Carvel also sells ice cream cakes through approximately 8,500
supermarkets nationwide
July 17, 2015
60
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - III
Coldstone Creamery
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.coldstonecreamery.com
9311 E. Via de Ventura, Scottsdale, AZ 85258
Tel: 480-362-4800
Coldstone sells custom ice cream creations through it chain of “upscale”
retail locations
The company operates more than 1,350 stores
At Coldstone retail locations, customers combine their favorite ice cream
flavor with any number of “mix-ins” (i.e. candies, chocolate, fruits, nuts,
sauces, etc.) to create their personalized ice cream
Coldstone makes 33 different ice cream flavors
The company offers 11.5 million possible ice cream creations
July 17, 2015
61
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - IV
International Dairy Queen (Berkshire Hathaway)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.dairyqueen.com
7505 Metro Blvd., Edina, MN 55439
Tel: 952-830-0200
2005 sales: $108.1 million
Dairy Queen is a leading franchiser of frozen treat stores, which also serves
a full line of typical “fast food”
The company has more than 5,600 locations
Dairy Queen is popular for their ice cream treats, such as “sundaes” and
“soft ice cream” cones
July 17, 2015
62
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - V
MaggieMoo’s
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.maggiemoos.com
10025 Governor Warfield Pkwy, Suite 301, Columbia, MD 21044
Tel: 410-740-2100
Estimated 2005 sales: $60 million
MaggieMoo’s retail shops serves super premium ice cream
The ice cream is made fresh daily at the retail location
MaggieMoo’s allows customers to mix in fruits, nuts, or candies to create
custom ice cream flavors
July 17, 2015
63
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - VI
Marble Slab Creamery
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.marbleslabcreamery.com
3100 S. Gessner, Suite 305, Houston, TX 77063
Tel: 713-780-3601
Estimated 2005 sales (QSR): $90 million
Marble Slab operates a chain of more than 540 franchised frozen treat
outlets in 35 states
The company serves about 40 flavors of homemade ice cream upon which
“mix-ins” are combined to create personalized ice cream flavors
July 17, 2015
64
CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - VII
TCBY – The Country’s Best Yogurt (Mrs. Fields Famous Brands)
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.tcby.com
2855 E. Cottonwood Pkwy, Suite 400, Salt Lake City, UT 84121
Tel: 801-736-5600
TCBY franchises serve frozen yogurt treats at its retail locations
The company has more than 1,300 locations nationwide
TCBY serves 17 different hand-scooped frozen yogurt flavors and 41 softserved flavors
July 17, 2015
65
FLAVORED MILK & YOGURT STATISTICS
FOR USA
Year
Flavored Whole
Milk
(million lbs)
Other Flavored
Milk
(million lbs)
1995
704
1,914
1,646
58,433
1996
662
2,075
1,588
58,912
1997
676
2,154
1,574
58,758
1998
788
2,256
1,639
58,618
1999
877
2,339
1,717
59,257
2000
892
2,444
1,837
59,085
2001
973
2,553
2,003
59,021
2002
1,030
3,010
2,135
59,369
2003
1,049
3,141
2,387
59,745
2004
857
3,440
2,709
60,012
2005
754
3,554
2,556
59,900
July 17, 2015
Yogurt
(million lbs)
Total of All Milk
Products
(million lbs)
66
MARKET SEGMENT – YOGURT –
MANUFACTURERS - I
Yoplait (General Mills)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.yoplait.com
1 General Mills Blvd., Minneapolis, MN 55426
Tel: 763-764-7600
2006 sales: $1,096 million
Yoplait manufactures and markets yogurt products
The company sells 95 different flavors of yogurt and 14 flavors of drinkable
yogurt
Yoplait has about 34% market share
July 17, 2015
67
MARKET SEGMENT – YOGURT –
MANUFACTURERS - II
Dannon (Danone)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.dannon.com
100 Hillside Ave., 3rd Fl., White Plains, NY 10603
Tel: 914-872-8400
Estimated 2005 sales: $572.2 million
Dannon manufactures and markets yogurt products
The company offers 42 different yogurt flavors and 16 drinkable yogurt
flavors
Dannon has approximately 31% market share
July 17, 2015
68
MARKET SEGMENT – YOGURT –
MANUFACTURERS - III
Horizon Organic (Dean Foods)
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.horizonorganic.com
PO Box 17577, Boulder, CO 80308
Tel: 888-494-3020
Horizon Organic is the number one certified organic dairy brand in the U.S.
The company produces 22 different flavors of organic yogurt as well as 3
drinkable yogurt flavors
July 17, 2015
69
MARKET SEGMENT – YOGURT –
MANUFACTURERS - IV
Light n’ Lively (Kraft)
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.kraftfoods.com
3 Lakes Dr., Northfield, IL 60093
Tel: 847-646-2000
Kraft sells cottage cheese and yogurt under its Light n’ Lively brand
Mountain High Yoghurt
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.mountainhighyoghurt.com
1325 West oxford Ave., Englewood, CO 80110
Mountain High produces and sells all natural European style yogurt
The company offers 19 different flavors of yogurt
July 17, 2015
70
MARKET SEGMENT – YOGURT –
MANUFACTURERS - V
Silk (WhiteWave Foods / Dean Foods)
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.silksoymilk.com
12002 Airport Way, Broomfield, CO 80021
Tel: 202-635-4000
Silk is the best-selling soy-based dairy-alternative product brand in the U.S.
The company manufactures 9 different flavors of soy yogurt
Stonyfield Farm
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.stonyfield.com
10 Burton Dr., Londonderry, NH 03053
Tel: 603-437-4040
Stonyfield produces natural yogurts, organic yogurts, soy-based yogurs,
and drinkable yogurts
The company offers 18 flavors of natural yogurt, 20 flavors of organic
yogurt, 6 flavors of soy yogurt, and 8 flavors of drinkable yogurt
July 17, 2015
71
MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - I
Nestle USA
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.nesquik.com
800 N. Brand Blvd., Glendale, CA 91203
Tel: 818-549-6000
2005 sales (Nesquik): $18.5 million
Nestle manufactures ready-to-drink milkshake products under its NESQUIK
brand
NESQUIK milkshakes are available in 9 different flavors
Nestle’s NESQUIK milkshake has about 28.5% market share
July 17, 2015
72
MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - II
The Hershey Company
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.hersheysmilk.com
100 Crystal A. Dr., Hershey, PA 17033
Tel: 717-534-4200
2005 sales (milk & milkshake): $17.25 million
Hershey’s manufactures ready-to-drink milkshakes and flavored milk drinks
The company produces 5 different flavors of milkshakes and 3 flavors of
flavored milk
Hershey’s Milkshake has about 17.3% market shake and Hershey’s Milk has
another 9.3% market share
July 17, 2015
73
MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - III
The Hain Celestial Group
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.tastethedream.com
58 S. Service Rd., Melville, NY 11747
Tel: 631-730-2200
2005 sales (Rice Dream): $8.1 million
The Hain Celestial Group manufactures a refrigerated non-dairy beverage
under its Rice Dream brand.
The firm was created by the fusion of Hain (“health foods”) and the
previously privately held “Celestial Seasonings” tea company of Boulder
Colorado. The combined fir´m´s penetration in free standing “health food”
stores (driven by the former Hain company), as well as in “health/gourmet”
sections (driven by the former Celestial Seasonings company) of chain and
non-chain supermarkets is a core asset.
The beverage is available in 2 flavors
Rice Dream has about 12.5% market share
July 17, 2015
74
MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - IV
Odwalla (subsidiary of Coca-Cola)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.odwalla.com
120 Stone Pine Rd., Half Moon Bay, CA 94019
Tel: 650-726-1888
2005 sales (Super Protein): $4.3 million
Odwalla manufactures juice beverages, smoothies, milkshakes, spring
water, nutritional bars, and soy-based drinks
The company makes 36 different flavors of juices, smoothies and
milkshakes
Odwalla’s Super Protein milkshake has about 6.7% market share
July 17, 2015
75
MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - V
Kern’s Beverages
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.kerns.com
5994 West Las Positas Blvd., Suite 209, Pleasanton, CA 94588
Tel: 888-655-3767
2005 sales (Horchata): $2.8 million
Kern’s manufactures fruit nectars and horchata (a light-tasting milk and
rice drink popular in Mexico and other Latin American countries)
Kern’s Horchata has about 4.3% market share
July 17, 2015
76
MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - VI
Shamrock Farms
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.shamrockfarms.net
2228 N. Black Canyon Hwy., Phoenix, AZ 85009
Tel: 602-272-6721
2005 sales (milkshakes): $1.45 million
Shamrock Farms is the largest family-owned and operated dairy in the
Southwest
The company produces and distributes a full line of dairy products,
including fresh milk, sour cream, cottage cheese, whipping cream, ice
cream, and more
Shamrock MMMMILK and MMMMILKSHAKES are available in 12 different
flavors
Shamrock Farms milkshake has about 2.2% market share
July 17, 2015
77
MARKET DEMAND FOR FRUITS, JUICES &
SWEET SPREADS SEGMENTS
Statistics for 2004:
Processed Fruit Consumption
Fresh Fruit Consumption
Fruit Juice Consumption
-
Sweet Spread Market Demand -
July 17, 2015
24.52 mm tons
38.17 mm tons
12.5 mm tons
$1,800 mm
78
MARKET SEGMENT – SWEET SPREADS –
MANUFACTURERS – I
The J. M. Smucker Company
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.smucker.com
1 Strawberry Lane, Orrville, OH 44667
Tel: 330-682-3000
2005 sales: $2,154.7 million
Smucker’s is the number one U.S. producer of jams, jellies, and preserves
The company also manufactures dessert toppings, juices, and specialty
fruit spreads
Smucker’s supplies industrial fruit fillings for yogurts and pastries as well
July 17, 2015
79
MARKET SEGMENT – SWEET SPREADS –
MANUFACTURERS – II
Welch Foods (subsidiary of National Grape Cooperative Assoc)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.welchs.com
3 Concord Farms, 575 Virginia Rd., Concord, MA 01742
Tel: 978-371-1000
2005 sales: $577.8 million
Welch Foods produces Welch’s brand fruit-based products
The company’s products include bottled & canned juices, fruit snacks,
sparkling juices, frozen juices, juice concentrates, jams, jellies, preserves,
and juice bars
Welch Foods is the operating subsidiary of the National Grape Cooperative
Association
July 17, 2015
80
CONFECTIONERY DEMAND IN USA - I
Table 2a. Quantity and Value of Shipments of Confectionery Products: 2005 and 2004
[Quantity in thousands of pounds. Value in thousands of dollars]
2005
Product description
Quantity
Value
Shipments...............................................................................................
6,493,573
16,880,338
Chocolate and chocolate-type confectionery.......................................................…
3,529,387
9,982,793
2004
Quantity
Value
6,208,003
16,465,387
3,321,509
9,637,758
Solid........................................................................................................
557,171
1,380,880
515,558
1,324,781
Solid with inclusions...........................................................................
226,685
695,998
232,100
717,137
Enrobed or molded with candy, fruit, nut or granola center...................................................................................
1,373,626
3,780,645
1,314,552
3,748,341
Enrobed or molded with bakery product center.....................................................................................
318,904
920,831
291,074
825,854
Panned.....................................................................................................
627,028
1,584,268
572,468
1,477,856
Assortments and other........................................................................
425,973
1,620,171
395,757
1,543,789
2,260,636
4,508,332
1,341,513
568,283
1,247,816
Chewy candy, including granola bars...........................................................................
662,395
1,534,055
585,572
1,336,842
Soft candy..............................................................................................
553,105
865,636
558,409
895,279
Iced/coated................................................................................................
6,898
34,495
n/a
n/a
Panned.........................................................................................................
392,094
764,620
370,594
746,049
Licorice and licorice type..........................................................................
179,472
n/a
n/a
Chewing gum, bubble gum, and chewing gum base...............................................................................
382,258
1,616,032
427,674
1,829,463
Confectionery, n.s.k. 1/.................................................................
206,149
198,184
489,834
Nonchocolate-type confectionery............................................................................
2,375,779
4,782,775
Hard candy............................................................................................
581,815
July
17, 2015
3.
confectionery
industry (i.e. chocolate):
242,456
498,738
81
n in July
2004
17, 2015
CONFECTIONERY DEMAND IN USA - II
Table 3. Consumption of Selected Ingredients by the U.S. Confectionery Industry: 2005 and 2004
[Quantity in thousands of pounds. Value in thousands of dollars]
2005
Quantity
2004
Value
Materials consumed...................................................................
n/a 4,131,733
Sugar (cane-beet).....................................................................................…
2,404,237
663,189
Cocoa beans.........................................................................…
697,169
603,160
Quantity
Value
n/a 3,963,981
2,367,551
658,321
729,265
571,046
Corn syrup including HFCS and dextrose.........................................................................…
1,402,857
172,264
1,363,482
162,671
Chocolate liquor, imported.........................................................................…
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Chocolate liquor, domestic.........................................................................…
n/a
n/a
13,070
17,603
Cocoa powder composition coatings.........................................................................…
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Cocoa cake or powder.........................................................................…
127,185
84,114
130,340
90,882
Cocoa butter..........................................................................…
241,620
435,780
247,822
393,380
Chocolate coatings, milk.........................................................................…
216,288
203,350
237,847
227,348
Chocolate coatings, other than milk..........................................................................…
111,047
100,913
114,889
106,991
Fats and oils.........................................................................…
228,785
112,547
221,772
102,107
n/a
66,934
62,565
Milk and milk products..........................................................................…
1,083,423
517,852
1,052,761
481,863
Peanuts, shelled basis..........................................................................…
327,843
158,983
326,548
150,387
50,675
81,024
Other nuts and nut meats (kernels)..................................................................…
35,104
100,366
38,421
97,970
Coconut meat.....................................................................................................…
5,601
5,322
5,511
5,192
Gum base..........................................................................…
n/a
Almond kernels..................................................................…
53,731
105,141
Other edible materials 1/...................................................................…
501,978
728,999
493,913
710,371
Materials, n.s.k. .......................................................................................................................................…
n/a
2,133
n/a
2,048
1/Includes corn starch, essential oils, eggs and egg products, fruits, jams, and other materials on which specific data w
82
MARKET SEGMENT – CONFECTIONERY –
MANUFACTURERS – I
The Hershey Company
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.hershey.com
100 Crystal A Dr., Hershey, PA 17033
Tel: 717-534-4200
2005 sales (chocolate): $2,780.9 million
Hershey is the largest chocolate candy manufacturer in the U.S.
The company’s confectionery brands include: Hershey’s Kisses, Reese’s,
Twizzlers, Mounds, and York Peppermint Patty
Hershey has about 44.7% market share
July 17, 2015
83
MARKET SEGMENT – CONFECTIONERY –
MANUFACTURERS – II
Mars Inc. (Masterfoods)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.mars.com
6885 Elm St., McLean, VA 22101
Tel: 703-821-4900
2005 sales (chocolate): $1,706.7 million
Mars is the number two chocolate candy manufacturer in the U.S.
The company’s confectionery brands include: 3 Musketeers, Dove, Milky
Way, Skittles, Twix, and Starburst
Mars has about 27.4% market share
July 17, 2015
84
MARKET SEGMENT – CONFECTIONERY –
MANUFACTURERS – III
Nestle USA
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.nestleusa.com
800 N. Brand Blvd., Glendale, CA 91203
Tel: 818-549-6000
2005 sales (chocolate): $548.8 million
Nestle is the number 3 chocolate candy manufacturer in the U.S.
The company’s confectionery brands include: Crunch, Smarties, and KitKat
Nestle has about 8.8% market share
July 17, 2015
85
MARKET SEGMENT – CONFECTIONERY –
MANUFACTURERS – IV
Godiva Chocolatier, Inc. (subsidiary of Campbell Soup)
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.godiva.com
355 Lexington Ave., Fl. 16, New York, NY 10017
Tel: 212-984-5900
2005 sales (total): $825 million
Godiva makes and sells premium chocolate concoctions, including bonbons,
flavored coffee, cookies, ice cream, and liqueur
The company also operates 275 boutique retail stores in the U.S.
Ghirardelli Chocolate Company
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.ghirardelli.com
510-483-6970
Tel: 1111 139th Ave., San Leandro, CA 94578
2005 sales (total): $150 million
Ghirardelli makes premium chocolate products such as its signature
chocolate squares, baking chocolate, and chocolate beverage mixes
The company also operates 12 retail shops
July 17, 2015
86
MARKET SEGMENT – CONFECTIONERY –
MANUFACTURERS – V
Lindt & Sprungli USA
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.lindt.com
One Fine Chocolate Place, Stratham, NH 03885
Tel: 603-778-8100
2005 sales (global): $1,707.4 million
Lindt is Switzerland’s oldest chocolate company and sells premium
chocolates worldwide
The company’s brands include: Caffarel, Lindor, Lindt, and Swiss Tradition
See’s Candies
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.sees.com
210 El Camino Real, South San Francisco, CA 94080
Tel: 650-583-7307
2005 sales: $325 million
See’s makes more than 100 varieties of premium chocolate truffles,
caramels, toffee, and other candies
The company has more than 200 franchised retail shops
July 17, 2015
87
BREAD & BAKERY SEGMENT STATISTICS – USA
2004 Revenue totaling $33.52 billion, a 2% increase from the previous
year. This is 6.9% of total US food manufacturing revenue.
2005 Domestic demand totaling $34.60 billion, a 2.2% increase from
the previous year.
Bread and Bakery Product Manufacturing in the US - Product/Service
Segmentation (June 2005)
–
–
–
Fresh and frozen bread and rolls
Frozen cakes, pies and other pastries*
Other bakery products
77.4 %
13.5 %
9.1 %
* Frozen cakes, pies and other pastries - includes frozen bakery products (except bread), such
as soft cakes (including fruit), pies (including fruit, cream and custard) doughnuts,
danishes, cream puffs, eclairs, fruit muffins and other pastries for immediate human
consumption
July 17, 2015
88
MARKET SEGMENT – BREAD & BAKERY –
MANUFACTURERS – I
Sara Lee Food & Beverage
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.saralee.com
3 First National Plaza, Chicago, IL 60602
Tel: 312-726-2600
2005 sales (total): $4,254 million
Sara Lee is the market leader of bread and bakery products in the U.S.
The company produces fresh sliced bread, buns, rolls, bagels, and frozen
bakery desserts such as pies, cakes, and cheesecakes
The Food & Beverage subsidiary also manufactures packaged deli meats
and cheeses and baked goods
Sara Lee’s bakery brands include: Sara Lee, Healthy Choice, Holsum, and
Roman Meal
The company has approximately 6.1% market share
July 17, 2015
89
MARKET SEGMENT – BREAD & BAKERY –
MANUFACTURERS – II
Bimbo Bakeries USA (subsidiary of Grupo Bimbo)
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.bimbobakeriesusa.com
14401 Statler Blvd., Fort Worth, TX 76155
Tel: 817-864-2500
2005 sales: $1,257.1 million
Bimbo Bakeries is the U.S. subsidiary of Mexico’s Grupo Bimbo S.A.
The company manufactures tortillas, bagels, snack cakes, muffins, and
pizza crusts
Bimbo Bakeries brands include: Bimbo, Mrs. Baird’s, Oroweat, Francisco,
Tia Rosa, and Marinela
The company has approximately 3.6% market share
July 17, 2015
90
MARKET SEGMENT – BREAD & BAKERY –
MANUFACTURERS – III
Interstate Bakeries Corporation
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.interstatebakeriescorp.com
12 E. Armour Blvd., Kansas City, MO 64111
Tel: 816-502-4000
2005 sales: $3,403.5 million
Interstate Bakeries is one of the largest wholesale bakers in the U.S.,
operating 52 bakeries nationwide
The company’s bread brands include: Wonder, Merita, and Home Pride
Interstate Bakeries also produces snack cakes, doughnuts, and sweetgoods under the brands Hostess, Dolly Madison, and Drake’s
The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2004 and is still in the
process of reorganization
July 17, 2015
91
MARKET SEGMENT – BREAD & BAKERY –
MANUFACTURERS – IV
Dunkin’ Donuts (Dunkin’ Brands)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.dunkindonuts.com
130 Royall St., Canton, MA 02021
Tel: 781-737-3000
2005 sales (U.S. total): $3,400 million
Dunkin’ Donuts is the world’s largest coffee and baked goods chain
The company sells 52 varieties of donuts in addition to an array of bagels,
breakfast sandwiches, and other baked goods
The company has over 4,000 Dunkin’ Donuts locations
July 17, 2015
92
MARKET SEGMENT – BREAD & BAKERY –
MANUFACTURERS – V
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc.
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.krispykreme.com
370 Knollwood St., Suite 500, Winston-Salem, NC 27103
Tel: 336-725-2981
2005 sales: $707.8 million
Krispy Kreme operates a chain of more than 310 shops and more than 80
smaller format satellite locations throughout the U.S.
In addition to its original glazed doughnut, the company serves cakes, filled
doughnuts, crullers and fritters
July 17, 2015
93
BREAKFAST CEREALS SEGMENT –
MARKET DEMAND – 1995-2005
2005 – US Cereal Industry (i.e. ready-to-eat, hot cereal, cereal bars)
revenue totaling $9.39 billion, a 3.5% increase from the previous year.
This accounts for 2.5% of total food manufacturing revenue in the
United States
Domestic demand totaling $9.08 billion, a 3% increase from the
previous year
Industry
Year
Revenue ($ mil)
1995
13210.8
1996
10283.6
1997
10108.1
1998
10596.6
1999
11668.9
2000
11702.5
2001
11813.9
2002
9098.5
2003
9077.8
Average Annual Growth
July 17, 2015
% Change
-2.2
-22.2
-1.7
4.8
10.1
0.3
1.0
-23.0
-0.2
-2.5
Industry Gross
Product ($ mil)
10267.8
7307.6
7283.5
7806.7
8891.0
8926.8
9006.2
6792.4
6563.6
% Change
0.3
-28.8
-0.3
7.2
13.9
0.4
0.9
-24.6
-3.4
-2.8
94
MARKET SEGMENT – BREAKFAST CEREALS –
MANUFACTURERS – I
Kellogg Company
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.kelloggcompany.com
1 Kellogg Sq., Battle Creek, MI 49016
Tel: 269-961-2000
2005 sales: $10,177.2 million
Kellogg is the number one U.S. breakfast cereal maker
The company’s brands include: All Bran, Apple Jacks, Cocoa Krispies, Corn
Flakes, Corn Pops, Crispix, Crunch, Froot Loops, Frosted Mini-Wheats, Fruit
Harvest, Honey Smacks, Kellogg’s Organics, Mini-Swirlz, Raisin Bran, Rice
Krispies, and Scooby Doo Berry Bones
Kellogg has about 23.7% market share
July 17, 2015
95
MARKET SEGMENT – BREAKFAST CEREALS –
MANUFACTURERS – II
General Mills, Inc.
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.generalmills.com
1 General Mills Blvd., Minneapolis, MN 55426
Tel: 763-764-7600
2005 sales: $11,640 million
General Mills is the number two cereal maker in the U.S.
The company’s brands include: Cheerios, Chex, Total, Kix, Wheaties, and
Lucky Charms
General Mills has about 18% market share
July 17, 2015
96
MARKET SEGMENT – BREAKFAST CEREALS –
MANUFACTURERS – III
Kraft Foods, Inc.
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.kraft.com
3 Lakes Dr., Northfield, IL 60093
Tel: 847-646-2000
2005 sales (corporate total): $34,113 million
Kraft Foods is the number one food company and number three cereal
company in the U.S.
The company manufactures cereals under its Post brand
Post cereal brands include: Honey Bunches of Oats, Grape Nuts, Raisin
Bran, 100% Bran, Shredded Wheat, Toasties, Bran Flakes, Fruit & Bran,
Fruity & Cocoa Pebbles, Honeycomb, Strawberry Blasted Honeycomb,
Golden Crisp, Waffle Crisp, Oreo O’s, and Alpha-Bits
Kraft has about 14% market share
July 17, 2015
97
MARKET SEGMENT – BREAKFAST CEREALS –
MANUFACTURERS – IV
Quaker Oats (subsidiary of PepsiCo)
–
–
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.quakeroats.com
P.O. Box 049003, Chicago, IL 60604
Tel: 312-821-1000
2005 sales (PepsiCo): $32,562 million
PepsiCo is the fourth largest cereal maker in the U.S., selling breakfast
cereal through its Quaker subsidiary
Quaker Oats cereal brands include: Cap’n Crunch, Life, Quisp, Mother’s
Natural, Quaker, and Kretschmer
PepsiCo has about 11.4% market share
July 17, 2015
98
LUCUMA – US CUSTOMER BUYING PATTERN - I
The main challenges that U.S. buyers face:
–
U.S Consumers in general have not been introduced to Lucuma flavoring
–
A few restaurants and a couple of ice cream parlors owned by Peruvians
offer Lucuma ice cream & chocolate truffles
–
Lucuma is very expensive if purchased through a distributor/importer in the
U.S. – more than six to eight times the price of that in Peru
–
Fresh lucuma is not available in the U.S. so users must purchase lucuma
derivatives – some would prefer to use fresh lucuma
–
Inconsistent quality is sometimes a problem for the customers – they
sometimes receive frozen lucuma pulp with blemishes and freezer burns
July 17, 2015
99
LUCUMA – US CUSTOMER BUYING PATTERN - II
Goya, a well known manufacturer and marketer of frozen food, Caribbean and
Latin American Cuisine appears to have a good experience of Lucuma Sales to
Ice Cream Segment
Goya started marketing frozen lucuma as recently as the 2006 spring in the US
They are selling frozen lucuma pulp at $3.99 per 14 OZ
They claim to have sold as much as 2,500 cases so far (with each case
containing 24 - 14 oz cans
They have sold so far 21,360 Kgms of Lucuma
They feel that the ice cream industry seems to like lucuma flavoring
This augurs well for potential lucuma sales
July 17, 2015
100
CRITERIA FOR MARKET SELECTION &
DESIGNING A SCORING SYSTEM
This has been already carried out in the earlier meeting with the
“Lucuma Group” on August 9, 2006
July 17, 2015
101
DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - I
American Fruits & Flavors
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.americanfruits-flavors.com/
10725 Sutter Ave., Pacoima, CA 91331
Tel: 818-899-9574
AFF is an ingredients supplier to the beverage, bakery, dairy, confectionery,
frozen novelties, snack foods, and jams industries
The company specializes in fruit flavorings, vegetable flavorings, fruit
bases, fruit concentrates, natural sweeteners, and tropical blends
July 17, 2015
102
DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - II
Bioactive Resources
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.bioactiveresources.com/
138 Sylvania Place, South Plainfield, NJ 07080
Tel: 908-561-3114
E-mail: [email protected]
Bioactive Resources is an ingredients supplier for the nutritional
supplement, food, beverage, snacks, and cosmetics industries
The company carries fruit and vegetable derivatives
Carlos Steffens Inc.
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.steffenscorp.com
3061 Independence Dr., Suite F, Livermore, CA 94550
Tel: 925-243-6539
Carlos Steffens is an ingredients broker specializing in concentrated fruit
juices, fruit purees, and pastes
July 17, 2015
103
DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - III
Carmi Flavor & Fragrance
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.carmiflavors.com/
6030 Scott Way, Commerce, CA 90040
Tel: 323-888-9240
E-mail: [email protected]
Carmi is a flavor developer and ingredients supplier serving the bakery,
beverage, confectionery, dairy, and ice cream industries
The company carries various fruit flavorings
Country Pure Foods
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.juice4u.com/
681 W. Waterloo Rd., Akron, OH 44314
Tel: 330-753-2293
Country Pure Foods is an independent juice processor, manufacturing an
assortment of juices
July 17, 2015
104
DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - IV
Diana Naturals
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.diana-naturals.com
707 Executive Blvd., Valley Cottage, NY 10989
Tel: 845-268-5200
Diana Naturals is an ingredient supplier to the health food industry
The company specializes in the production and marketing of natural fruit
and vegetable ingredients
Dynamic Health Laboratories
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.dynamic-health.com/
110 Bridge St., Brooklyn, NY 11201
Tel: 718-472-4009
Dynamic Health Laboratories is a contract manufacturers of juices, juice
blends, purees, and concentrates
The company carries a variety of exotic juices and purees including: goji,
mangosteen, acai, noni, camu camu, aloe vera, papaya, and mango
July 17, 2015
105
DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - V
Encore Fruit Marketing
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.encorefruit.com/
120 West Bonita Ave., Suite 204, San Dimas, CA 91773
Tel: 909-394-5640
Encore Fruit Marketing is an ingredient broker specializing in fruit purees,
fruit juices, frozen fruits, dried fruits, and fruit concentrates
Food Partners
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.foodpartners.net/
340 W. Central Ave., Suite 200, Winter Haven, FL 33880
Tel: 863-298-8771
Food Partners is an ingredient distributor focusing on tropical fruit juices
and related by-products
The company’s products include: acerola, black current, guabana, guava,
kiwi, mango, papaya, passion fruit, and prickly pear
July 17, 2015
106
DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - VI
FruitSmart Inc.
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.fruitsmart.com/
14502 N. Rothrock Road, Prosser, WA 99350
Tel: 509-786-3500
FruitSmart is an ingredients supplier and processor specializing fruit
ingredients
International Flavors & Fragrances
–
–
–
Company website: https://www.iffxpress.com/
150 Docks Corner Road, Dayton, NJ 08810
Tel: 732-329-5466
International Flavors & Fragrances is a flavor developer and ingredients
suppler for the confectionery, beverage, dairy, bakery, and other food
industry segments
July 17, 2015
107
DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - VII
iTi Tropicals
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.ititropicals.com/
Lawrenceville, NJ
Tel: 800-223-5484
iTi Tropicals is an importer of tropical fruit purees, concentrates, and fruit
pieces
The company’s products include: acelora, aloe vera, coconut, guava,
mango, papaya, passion fruit, and tamarind
RFI Ingredients
–
–
–
–
Company website: http://www.rfiingredients.com
300 Corporate Drive, Suite 14, Blauvelt, NY 10913
Tel: 845-358-8600
RFI Ingredient is an ingredient developer and broker for the food and
beverage industries
The company carries powders, purees, and concentrates of acai, acerola,
camu camu, graviola, guava, mango, papaya, passion fruit, and star fruit
July 17, 2015
108
DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS NODAL POINTS
Initially it is essential to develop a proper taste and flavoring appealing to the
US Palate
It is useful to spend some time and money with companies carrying out special
research in these areas in the US
Once this is done, the next step would be to offer the products to various
manufacturers to try the products
Only after this, the Distribution Channel should be offered the product to store
and sell after creating suitable demand in the market
Being a relatively new product, it is totally dependent on the response of
manufacturers of ice cream, yogurt, bakery products, sweet spreads, flavored
milk and breakfast cereals
A good market research after developing proper taste and flavorings is
therefore essential
July 17, 2015
109
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS - I
Lucuma has to develop a Market Entry Strategy against stiff competition from
all other flavorings
In Fruit Pulp Category alone, it meets with competition from the following:
–
–
–
Mangoes – this is currently placed in “special gourmet” category
Pineapple – this is gradually making its way felt in selected gourmet ice cream
manufacturers
Selected tropical fruits – it is left to the imagination of some of the gourmet ice cream
providers to come up with these fruit pulps
In addition, it is facing competition from the regular flavorings such as Vanilla
(29.6%), Chocolate (8.9%), Strawberry (5.3%), Butter Pecan (5.3%),
Neapolitan (4.2%), Chocolate Chip (3.9%), French Vanilla ((3.8%), Cookies ‘n
Cream (3.6%), Fudge Ripple (2.6%) & Praline (1.7%)
The above add up to 68.3% and the balance is shared hundreds of products
accounting for 31.7%
Lucuma will have to start as one of the products in the 31.7% category
It is well known that Baskin Robbins have over 50 flavorings in their regular
retail chain
July 17, 2015
110
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS - II
It is estimated that the Market Demand for various flavorings in
different segments are as below:
Ice Cream Segment
Yogurt
Flavored Milk
Sweet Spreads
Confectionery Products
Bakery Products
Breakfast cereals
TOTAL – ALL SEGMENTS
July 17, 2015
-
In Millions of US$
985
372
617
364
729
1,598
1,961
6,626
111
ASSESSMENT OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT - I
Incremental Capital Investment needed has been calculated at 12.97%
of incremental sales revenue in Year – 5
For a Sales Revenue of $11.293 million in Year 5, the Incremental
Investment would be $1.465 million
The model automatically triggers the investment for the incremental
sales revenue well in advance
Depreciation has been assumed to be 12.5% of Capital Investment
July 17, 2015
112
ASSESSMENT OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT - II
Incremental Manpower required to handle additional exports has been
arrived at on the basis of 1 person for every $50K exports carried out
The total personnel costs would be $7.5K p.a. per individual
The number of incremental jobs created and the incremental wage bill
for the first 5 years would be as below:
CALENDAR YEAR
NUMBER OF INCREMENTAL
JOBS CREATED EACH YEAR
TOTAL COSTS OF LABOR
July 17, 2015
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
69
72
75
4
5
5
521
1,063
1,626
1,660
1,694
1,842
113
STRATEGIC OPTIONS – DEMAND IN VARIOUS
SEGMENTS IN 2006 - I
PROJ. MARKET DEMAND FOR ICE CREAM IN MM LBS
7,234
PROJ. MKT DEMAND FOR YOGURT - MM LBS
2,731
PROJ MKT DEMAND FOR FLAVORED MILK - MM LBS
4,532
SWEET SPREAD INDUSTRY - JAMS, HONEY, PRESERVES
ETC. - MM$
1,820
CONFECTIONARY INDUSTRY - MM$
CONFECTIONARY INDUSTRY - OTHER EDIBLE OILS,
JAMS, OILS & OTHER MATERIALS - MM LBS
BAKERY PRODUCTS - MM$
15,547
508
35,361
BAKERY PRODUCTS WHERE LUCUMA COULD BE USED MM$
7,992
PROJ. BREAKFAST CEREALS REVENUES - MM$
9,806
July 17, 2015
114
STRATEGIC OPTIONS – GROWTH RATES OF
VARIOUS SEGMENTS
Ice Cream Segment
1.09%
Yogurt Segment
1.00%
Flavored Milk Segment
2.89%
Sweet Spreads Segment
1.10%
Confectionery Segment
1.20%
Bakery Products Segment
2.20%
Breakfast Cereals Segment
1.83%
July 17, 2015
115
STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PRODUCT STRATEGIES
Develop Product Flavorings appealing to the US Palate
Approach Two Companies such as Carmi Flavor & Fragrance and
International Flavors & Fragrances, well experienced in this field to
provide quotes
A consumer panel is to be formed and product testing should take
place
Different forms of the product to be tried to see whose applicability has
the most favorable response from the consumer panel
Spending as much as $350K towards developing the optimal blend of
taste, aroma and feel for the product
Based on Consumer Panel’s reactions, a suitable product or a set of
products would be selected
July 17, 2015
116
STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PRODUCTION STRATEGIES
In the collaborative meetings, one suggestion was that some groups of
growers (within or external to PROLUCUMA) combine forces and make
a binding commitment to produce standardized products which would
resolve a key issue in the current marketplace.
As suggested by ACM Consulting, this structure could be a “fielcomiso”
(land traust) whereby particpants place their land under contract and
for a specified time (say 5 years) decline rights to cease production of
Lucuma.
–
–
–
As a consequence, the producers in this category would be givern priority
rights for sales opportunities identified by PROLUCUMA or Government
Entities.
Production would be combined to create a significant exportable offer, with
participants receiving a corrresponding shareholding in the aggregated
entity.
Should the industry decide to explore this path, Tiara/ACM is willing to
undertake the financial analysis and develop the marketing strategy for
such an entity.
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STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROMOTION STRATEGIES
Participation in 10 Trade Shows at a total cost of $200K
Making presentations similar to what Brazil did for their special “berry
product”, “CIAO” last year in US Trade Shows
Participation in “Food Network” Show, i.e., Channel 46 to display the
variety of food recipes using “Lucuma”. The cost should not exceed,
say $40K
Free Sampling & Demonstration in 50 selected restaurants, 4 times a
year at a unit cost of $325 per restaurant would involve an overall cost
of $65K
Advertising in 6 different magazines to a tune of $450
Overall cost of promotional strategies would be in the region of $755K
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STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PRICING STRATEGIES
It is recommended to have a “Conservative Approach” here
There is significant evidence that the Distributors in the US are
charging substantially higher price for “Lucuma Pulp” that they have
imported from Peru
It is also known that some of users of Lucuma for their ice-creams and
chocolate truffles are importing directly from their own sources in Peru
at $2.50 per Kgm.
We have therefore assumed an import price (fob Peru) at $2.50 per
Kgm
The model treats “escalating price” as an option in this regard and
shows the relevant results
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STRATEGIC OPTIONS - DISTRIBUTION
There are quite a few distributors, ready to take on the “Distribution”
as seen in the earlier slides
However, the Strategy recommended here is to initially develop an
“Optimal Product” and then offer it to ice cream and yogurt
manufacturers and retail chains
Similarly, develop the products suitable for Confectionery, Bakery and
Breakfast Cereals Segments and then offer it to the respective
manufacturers and marketers
Thereafter, offer the product both directly through the distribution
channel and also to the manufacturers depending on their order of
preference
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STRATEGIC OPTIONS –
PROJECTED MARKET SHARES
PROJECTED MARKET SHARE IN ICE CREAM SEGMENT
0.23%
PROJECTED MARKET SHARE IN YOGURT SEGMENT
0.15%
PROJ. MKT SHR IN FLAVORED MILK SEGMENT
0.17%
PROJ MKT SHR OF LUCUMA IN SWEET SPREAD SGMT
0.15%
PROJ. MARKET SHARE IN CONFECTIONARY SEGMENGT
0.20%
PROJ. MKT SHR IN BAKERY SEGMENT
0.23%
PROJ. MKT SHARE IN CEREALS SEGMENT
0.29%
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STRATEGIC OPTIONS – ASSUMPTIONS RELATING
TO LUCUMA CONTENT SHARE FOR EACH SEGMENT
PERCENTAGE OF LUCUMA PULP IN ICE CREAM
17.50%
PERCENTAGE OF LUCUMA PULP IN YOGURT
12.50%
PERCENTAGE OF LUCUMA IN FLOVORED MILK
10.00%
% OF SWEETENED LUCUMA IN SWEET SPREAD INDUSTRY
22.50%
% - SWEETENED LUCKUMA IN CONFECTIONARY
15.00%
% OF ASEPTIC LUCUMA IN BAKERY PRODUCTS
11.00%
% OF FREEZE-DRIED LUCUMA IN BREAKFAST CEREALS
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9.00%
122
STRATEGIC OPTIONS – ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA
No of Years to Achieve Market Share
-
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) per Kgm Ratio of Selling Price to COGS
July 17, 2015
-
3 Years
$1.70
68.0%
123
STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROJECTED REVENUE
STREAMS FROM DIFFERENT SEGMENTS
CALENDAR YEAR
PROJ. INCRMNTL REVENUE
FROM ICE CREAM SGMT - M $
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
1,123
2,270
3,442
3,479
3,517
3,672
PROJ. INCR REVENUE FROM
YOGURT SGMT - M$
213
456
731
780
834
1,086
PROJ. INCRMNTL REVENUE
FROM FLV'D MILK SGMT - M $
307
631
974
1,003
1,032
1,156
PROJ. LUCUMA SALES IN
SWEET SPREAD SGMT - M $
208
421
638
645
652
681
58
116
177
179
181
190
PROJ. LUCUMA SALES IN
BAKERY SGMT - MM$
695
1,420
2,178
2,225
2,274
2,481
PROJ. LUCUMA SALES IN
CEREALS SGMT - MM$
869
1,770
2,703
2,752
2,803
3,014
3,473
7,085
10,842
11,064
11,293
12,280
PROJ. INCRMTL REVENUE
FROM CONFECTIONARY SGMT
- M$
PROJ. TOTAL EXPORTS
REVENUE OF ALL SGMTS - M$
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STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROJECTED REVENUE STREAMS, COGS,
OPERATING COSTS, CONTRIBUTION MARGIN & EARNING
STREAMS BEFORE TAX
CALENDAR YEAR
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
PROJ. TOTAL EXPORTS
REVENUE OF ALL SGMTS - M$
3,473
7,085
10,842
11,064
11,293
12,280
PROJ COST OF GOODS SOLD
FOR ALL SGMTS - M$
2,361
4,818
7,373
7,524
7,679
8,351
CONTRIBUTION MARGIN FROM
ALL SGMTS - M$
1,111
2,267
3,470
3,541
3,614
3,930
69
72
75
4
5
5
TOTAL COSTS OF LABOR
521
1,063
1,626
1,660
1,694
1,842
PROMOTIONAL ONE TIME
COSTS - M$
350
-
65
65
65
65
65
-
690
690
690
690
690
218
TOTAL OPERATING COSTS FOR
LUCUMA INDUSTRY-M$
1,626
1,818
2,381
2,415
2,449
2,060
NET OPERATING INCOME
BEFORE TAX & DEPRECIATION M$
(515)
449
1,088
1,126
1,165
1,869
NUMBER OF INCREMENTAL
JOBS CREATED EACH YEAR
PROMOTIONAL COSTS - FOR
THE FIRST FEW YEARS - M$
PROMOTIONAL RECURRING
COSTS - M$
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STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROJECTED EXPORTS OF LUCUMA IN
TONS, CAPITAL INVESTMENT STREAMS & WORKING CAPITAL
CALENDAR YEAR
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
TOTAL LUCUMA TONS
EXPORTED
1,389
2,834
4,337
4,426
4,517
4,912
INCREMENTAL CAPITAL
INVESTMENT NEEDED M$
1,465
-
-
-
-
-
CUMULATIVE CAPITAL
INVESTMENT - M$
1,465
1,465
1,465
1,465
1,465
1,465
183
183
183
183
183
-
WORKING CAPITAL
NEEDED - M$
1,347
2,748
4,206
4,292
4,381
4,764
INCREMENTAL WORKING
CAPITAL - M$
1,347
1,401
1,458
86
89
100
121
247
379
386
394
429
DEPRECIATION OF
CAPITAL INVESTMENT M$
WORKING CAPITAL
INTEREST COSTS - M$
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STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROJECTED CASH FLOWS
CALENDAR YEAR
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
2021
AFTER TAX
CASHFLOW FOR
INDUSTRY NOMINAL - M$
(2,304)
196
536
556
577
965
1,243
CUMU. AFT TAX
CASH FLOW NOMINAL - M$
(2,304)
(2,108)
(1,572)
(1,016)
(439)
3,102
9,947
AFT TAX CASH
FLOW FOR THE
INDUSTRY - REAL
- M$
(2,237)
185
490
494
497
740
798
CUMU. AFTER TAX
CASH FLOW REAL - M$
(2,237)
(2,052)
(1,562)
(1,068)
(570)
2,260
6,981
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STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROJECTED RESULTS &
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
TOTAL EXPORTS OF LUCUMA PRODUCTS - M$
TOTAL FREE CASH FLOW LUCUMA PROJECT - M$
NO OF NEW JOBS CREATED - LUCUMA PROJECT
NET PRESENT VALUE FOR THE INDUSTRY - M$
170,970
9,947
280
2,340
INTGERNAL RATE OF RETURN - NOMINAL
26%
INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN - REAL
22%
SIMPLE PAYBACK PERIOD - NOMINAL - YEARS
5.58
SIMPLE PAYBACK PERIOD - REAL - YEARS
5.90
PRESENT WORTH PAYBACK PERIOD (PWP) - YEARS
7.17
PRESENT WORTH INDEX - (PWP)
2.14
July 17, 2015
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Strategic Graphs
The following grapghs show the results of the Tiara Modeling
The grapghs show results with and without the suggested 2% annual
price increase as market penetration, demand and channel efficiency
increase
–
The 2% Price Increase converts the DRA (Decision and Risk Analysis) for
“Peru Lucuma S.A.” (the entire industry as if it were a firm) from an
approcimately 32% risk (considering 2187 iterations of the 7 key variables)
to an approximately 8.5% risk (using the same 2817 iterations)
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Tornado: Lucuma Variables
No Annual Price Increase
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130
Tornado: Lucuma Top 7 Variables
No Annual Price Increase
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131
S-Curve: Lucuma Decision & Risk Analysis
No Annual Price Increase
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132
Strategic Graphs
The following Tornado Diagram and “S-Curve”
(Decision and Risk Analysis)
show the effect of a 2% annual price increase
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Tornado: Lucuma Variables
With 2% Annual Price Increase
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134
Tornado: Lucuma Top 7 Variables
2% Annual Price Increase
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135
S-Curve: Lucuma Decision & Risk Analysis
With Annual Price Increase
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136
Some Traditional
and Non-Traditional Lucuma Presentations
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137
Conclusion: Key Findings
from Study and Collaborative Meetings
The Lucuma industry has “niche” opportunities in the USA, and can achieve
significant profitability at “relatively” or “very” low risk by reaching minute
market shares in key products such as Ice Cream, Flavored Milk and as a
“Bakery Ingredient”
–
–
A key variable in diminishing the risk profile is a 2% price increase annually.
Initially, larger food firms should not be targeted, direct contacts in the gourmet sector
are essential to introduce the product while strengthening the supply chain
Without “standardization,” of quality variables such as color, flavor, sugar
content (as well as dependable supply to the USA) Lucuma will remain a
“marginal” export product
PRO-LUCUMA, must be strengthened (or a new stronger entity created) so well
over 50% of acreage is represented.
–
–
–
This will allow increased marketing and political strength
This will allow much better data collection to ensure industry benchmarking and
profitability
This will allow communication of market demands, and allow growers to meet it with
appropriate quality and standardized offer.
A public Private partnership is essential to achieve quality, supply and
promotion goals. Likely participants will include PROMPEX and the Private
Sector (whether under the aegis of the gremio PRO-LUCUMA, or large scale
individual firms)
July 17, 2015
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Next Steps
Despite the completion of the project, Tiara is willing to re-run the DRA based
on improved data which may come available based on tighter industry
coordination, and furthermore modify any strategic conclusions and
recommendations
Furthermore, Tiara is willing to re-present this presentation, with any
modifications described above, in January 2007 at no additional cost.
PROMPEX and PROLUCUMA, and key industry players must convene and decide
what political and financial resources are available for solidifying the industry,
and what strategy recommendations they wish to adopt.
–
–
–
Upon this decision, further study should be undertaken based on the “new realities”
concluded by the relevant parties
Now that the “ideal” plan has been developed, Tiara International Consulting is willing,
as an additional study, to adopt a plan based on decisions taken by the relevant
participants.
The “Land-Trust” concept mentioned earlier should be considered. If accepted it must
be developed with sound economic study and marketing plan (based on the acreage of
willing participants)
If within a “reasonable time” (e.g. 1 quarter) inertia or other factors delay the
adoption of a holistic plan, individual firms can and should seek opportunities in
the meantime to tap the markets and contacts identified. This is a sub-optimal
solution.
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139
Gracias por su atención...
TIC LLC
Tiara International Consulting LLC
www.ticllcglobal.com
This document is an exclusive joint property of TIC LLC
and ACM Perú SAC. Neither the whole document, nor
any of its written parts, charts or photos can be used for
any purpose, different from the one defined by both
companies, or by previous notice and written
authorization by them.
July 17, 2015
140