Transcript World Energy Consumption, 1970-2020

International Energy Outlook
2004
with projections to 2025
Dan Butler
Oil Market Analyst
Energy Information Administration
June 22, 2004
International Energy Outlook 2004 indicates that over the
next 24 years …
• Energy use will grow strongly, especially among the
developing countries (2.7% per year in the developing
world)
• There will be continued reliance on fossil fuels through
2025; oil remains the dominant fuel type (39 % of total
world energy use)
• Natural gas is the fastest growing source of primary
energy (2.2% per year)
• Coal will continue to be the predominant source for
electricity generation, but natural gas will be an
important supply source for power generation in many
parts of the world, given its efficiency and environmental
benefits.
• Carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the combustion
of fossil fuels will continue to grow (1.9% per year)
World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type,
1970-2025
History
Projections
250
39%
Quadrillion Btu
200
Oil
150
Natural Gas
25%
23%
100
Coal
50
Renewables
Nuclear
8%
5%
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
Share of
World
Total
World Oil Consumption and Production, 2001, 2010,
and 2025
Consumption
140.0
Million Barrels per Day
120.0
Other
Dev eloping Asia
120.8
Industrialized
100.0
80.0
Production
Other
EE/FSU
OPEC
91.5
120.6
91.1
77.1
77.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
2001
2010
2025
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
2001
2010
2025
World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1,
2004
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Iran
Iraq
UAE
Kuwait
Venezuela
Russia
Libya
Nigeria
United States
China
Mexico
Qatar
Algeria
Norway
Kazakhstan
Brazil
Azerbaijan
Oman
Rest of World
World T otal:
1,266 Billion Barrels
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Billion Barrels
Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production."Oil & Gas Journal,
Vol. 100, No. 49 (December 22, 2003), pp. 46-47.
World Oil Resources
1995-2025
5
Trillion Barrels
4
Undiscov ered
Reserv e Growth
Remaining Reserv es
Cumulativ e Production
3
2
1
0
Low
Mean
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
High
Million Barrels per Day
Non-OPEC Production, Reference
Case 2001 and 2025
20
15
2001
2025
10
5
0
NA C&SA WE FSU
EE
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
ME
Africa
Asia
U.S. Petroleum Imports from Western Hemisphere Sources
2001 and 2025
(Million Barrels per Day)
Crude Oil
Canada
Mexico
Venezuela
Other C & SA
2001
1.36
1.39
1.29
0.52
2025
2.44
2.02
2.28
0.54
Refined Products
Canada
Mexico
Venezuela
Other C & SA
2001
0.47
0.05
0.27
0.39
2025
0.89
0.06
0.82
0.94