Transcript Climate Policy Modeling: Chinese Experience

Climate Policy Modeling:
Some Experiences in China
Hongwei YANG
Energy Research Institute, China
0
5
2030
(Chap. 5 – 10)
Rural
Co Indu
mm stry
erc
e
AIM/Enduse
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Agric Transport
ultur
e
Average cost for CO22
reduction, yuan/t-C
AIM/Emission
n
a
Urb
Mt-CO2
5
10
20
40
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Rateof
ofaccumulated
accumulated CO
(%)(%)
2 reduction
Rate
CO
reduction
2
AIM/Bottom-up
AIM/Energy-Economics
AIM/Land-Equilibrium
(Chap. 2)
AIM/Local
40
40
Without
Counter 30
Measures
30
2007
AIM/Country
20
750 ppm
10
550 ppm
0
20
10
Year
0.0
GDP change (%)
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
EU
Mitigation of GDP loss
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
AIM/Impact
AIM/CGE-Linkage
AIM/Ecosystem
(Chap. 4)
Source: AIM web page.
GDP GDP
lossloss
from
case
fromreference
reference case
(Trillion yen at 1995 prices)
(Trillion
yen at 1995 prices)
AIM/Global
AIM/CGE (Energy)
USA
(Chap. 11)
GDP loss after mitigation
Mitigation from green consumption
Mitigation from taxation policy
Mitigation from
technological improvement
Mitigation from
environmental investment
CO2 and
GDP loss due to CO2
solid waste constraints
without countermeasures
2010
0
2000 2050 2100
2000 2050 2100
Global CO2 emissions and reduction for
stabilization
Japan
AIM/Material
Inventory activity
Recycling
Society
Fossil Intensive
Society
>21
CO2 emission in 2030
AIM/Emission-Linkage
Gt-C
<3
AIM/Land
AIM/Water
AIM/Agriculture
AIM/Vegetation
AIM/Health etc.
(Chap. 3, 12)
FSU
GDP
change
Kyoto
with
USAUSA
GDP
change
byby
thethe
Kyoto
with
USAand without
and without
12
-500
-500
00
+500
+500
(kg/ha)
(kg/ha)
Change in potential productivity of rice
AIM/Trend
10
Changes in potential productivity of rice
(Chap. 13)
ERI: Bottom-up approaches
• AIM/Enduse (AIM/Emission)
• AIM/Local
• AIM/Database
8
AIM/Climate
4
2
0
2032
2025
2015
2005
1995
Cambodia
Bhutan
Laos
Solomon Islands
Kiribati
Bangladesh
Vanuatu
Papua New Guinea
Pakistan
Nepal
Myanmar
Vietnam
Sri Lanka
Maldives
Samoa
Indonesia
Tajikistan
Philippines
India
Fiji
Kyrgyz Republic
French Polynesia
Tonga
China
Thailand
Iran
New Zealand
Uzbekistan
Mongolia
Malaysia
Japan
Turkmenistan
Nauru
Taiwan
Australia
Korea, Dem
Korea, Rep
Kazakhstan
Palau
Singapore
Brunei
6
CO2 emission per capita
(t-C/capita)
AIM/Database
Atmospheric model
UD Ocean model
Radiative forcing model
GCM,RegCM interface
(Chap. 14)
Year
AIM family
(Chap. 1)
2
1. AIM/Database
AIM/Emission
AIM/Local
3
2. AIM/Emission study for China’s energy end-use sectors
4
Classification of Energy End User Sectors
Sectors
Sub-sectors
or
products
Industrial
sector
Iron and steel
Non-ferrous
metals
Building
materials
Chemical
industry
Petrochemical
industry
Paper-making
Textile
Machinery
Power
generation
Oil refinery
Agricultural
sector
Irrigation
Farming
work
Agricultural
products
processing
Fishery
Animal
husbandry
Residential
sector
Urban
energy
use
Rural energy
use
Space
heating
Cooling
Lighting
Cooking and
hot water
Household
electric
appliances
Services
sector
Space
heating
Cooling
Lighting
Cooking and
hot water
Electric
appliances
Transport
Railway
transport
Road
transport
Waterways
transport
Air
transport
5
Energy services technologies used in this simulation
Classification
Iron and steel
Technologies (equipment)
Coke oven; Sintering machine; Blast furnace; Open hearth furnace (OH); Basic
oxygen furnace (BOF); AC-electric arc furnace; DC-electric arc furnace; Ingot
casting machine; Continuous casting machine; Continuous casting machine with
rolling machine; steel rolling machine; Continuous steel rolling machine;
Equipment for coke dry quenching; Equipment for coke wet quenching; Electric
power generated with residue pressure on top of the blast furnace (TRT);
Equipment for coke oven gas; OH gas and BOF gas recovery; Equipment for
co-generation
Non-ferrous metals Aluminum production using the sintering process; Aluminum production using
the combination process; Aluminum production using the Bayer process;
Electrolytic aluminum using the upper-insert cell; Electrolytic aluminum using
the side-insert cell; Crude copper production with flash furnace; Crude copper
production using an electric furnace; Blast furnace; Reverberator furnace; Lead
smelting-sintering in a blast furnace; Lead smelting using a closed blast furnace;
Zinc smelting using the wet method; Zinc smelting using the vertical pot method
Building materials Cement: Mechanized shaft kiln; Ordinary shaft kiln; Wet process kiln; Lepol kiln;
Ling dry kiln; Rotary kiln with pro-heater; Dry process rotary kiln with
pre-calciner; Self-owned electric power generator; Electric power generator with
residue heat
Bricks and tiles: Hoffman kiln; Tunnel kiln
Lime: Ordinary shaft kiln; Mechanized shaft kiln
Glass: Floating process; Vertical process; Colburn process; Smelter
Chemical industry Equipment for synthetic ammonia production: Converter; Gasification furnace;
Gas-making furnace; Synthetic column; Shifting equipment for sulphur removal
Equipment for caustic soda production: Electronic cells using the graphite
process; Two-stage effects evaporator; Multi-stage effects evaporator; Equipment
for rectification; Ion membrane method
Calcium Carbine production: Limestone calciner; Closed carbine furnace; Open
carbine furnace; Equipment for residual heat recovery
Soda ash production: Ammonia and salt water preparation; Limestone calcining;
Distillation column; Filter
Fertilizer production: Equipment for organic products production; Equipment for
residual heat utilization
Petrochemical
Facilities for atmospheric and vacuum distillation; Facilities for rectification;
industry
Facilities for catalyzing and cracking; Facilities for cracking with hydrogen
adding; Facilities for delayed coking; Facilities for light carbon cracking;
Sequential separator; Naphtha cracker; De-ethane separator; Diesel cracker;
De-propane cracker; Facilities for residual heat utilization from ethylene
Paper-making
Cooker; Facilities for distillation; Facilities for washing; Facilities for bleaching;
Evaporator; Crusher; Facilities for de-water; Facilities for finishing; Facilities for
residue heat utilization; Facilities for black liquor recovery; Co-generator; Back
pressure electric power generator; Condensing electric power generator
6
CO2 emissions in China under different scenarios
3000
M t-C
2500
2000
Frozen technology
1500
M arket
1000
Policy
500
0
1990
2000
2010
Year
2020
2030
CO2 emissions in 2030 by sector under different scenarios
2500
M t-C
2000
Frozen
technology
1500
1000
M arket
500
Policy
0
Industry Transport Commercial Urban
Rural
residential residential
Sector
7
0
0.00
100
100.00
200
200.00
300
300.00
400
400.00
500
500.00
600
600.00
700
700.00
800
800.00
900
900.00
1,000
1000.00
1,100
1100.00
1,200
1200.00
1,300
1300.00
1,400
1400.00
1,500
1500.00
>=1600.00≧1,600
<t-C/km2>
Estimated CO2 emission intensity in China for 2010
8
0
0.00
1,000
1000.00
2,000
2000.00
3,000
3000.00
4,000
4000.00
5,000
5000.00
6,000
6000.00
7,000
7000.00
8,000
8000.00
9,000
9000.00
10,000
10000.00
11,000
11000.00
12,000
12000.00
13,000
13000.00
14,000
14000.00
15,000
15000.00
>=16000.00≧16,000
<kg-SO2/km2>
Estimated SO2 emission intensity in China for 2010
9
3. AIM/Local study at provincial and sector level in China
Per capita GDP in 2000 across China’s provinces
Source: CEI webpage based on China Statistical Yearbook 2001.
Why local?
Shanghai: 34,547
Guizhou: 2,662
10
3.1 AIM/Local study for iron & steel industry in China
Comparison of unit energy consumption of crude steel production, 1997
Unit: kgce/t-steel
Breakdown of China’s iron and steel production in this study
Iron and Steel Production
100%
China
South Africa
Large Point Sources
90%
US
France
42.7%
Plant 1
Plant 2
Plant ...
Area Sources
10%
Plant 72
Germany
UK
Production
Process
Emission
Location
Netherlands
Japan
0
Sources:
200
400
600
800
Production
Process
Emission
Location
Production
Process
Emission
Location
Production
Process
Emission
Location
Region 2
Hebei
Production
Process
Emission
Location
Region ...
...
Production
Process
Emission
Location
Region 30
Xinjiang
Production
Process
Emission
Location
1000
China Steel Statistical Yearbook 1998;
Key Statistics of Japan’s Steel Industry, 1998.
10
Large scale plants
Other plants
> 500,000 ton/a
< 500,000 ton/a
Min {total costs}
Subject to:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Production
Process
Emission
Location
Region 1
Beijing
Service supply constraint
Energy supply constraint
Emission constraint
Technology share constraint
Technology stock exchange constraint
Technology operating constraint
Large point sources / Area sources
Projection
of future
emissions
Min {total CO2 emissions}
Subject to:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Service supply constraint
Energy supply constraint
Other emission constraint
Technology share constraint
Technology stock exchange constraint
Technology operating constraint
Estimation of
theoretical
maximum
reduction
11
22
3.1 AIM/Local study for iron & steel industry in China
• Projection of future emissions with/without CDM
Shares of the accumulated production by technologies under different scenarios (%)
Period: 2000-2030
Scenario
Market
CDM1
CDM2
Min
CO2
Openhearth
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Oxygen
81.3
73.7
58.2
42.6
AC
Electric
18.3
19.4
24.5
24.3
DC
Electric
0.0
1.4
11.0
30.7
Heat
Recovery
0.0
5.2
5.9
2.1
DIOS
Total
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100
100
100
100
Present technologies in China
Advanced technologies from Japan
12
3.2 AIM/Local study for Beijing
 Classification of sectors and services
Sector
Thermal power generation
Industrial sector
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
Other sectors
Service
Electricity
Cement
Steel
Ethylene
Refinery
Heating
Cooling
Lighting
Cooking
Hot water
Heating
Cooling
Lighting
Cooking
Hot water
Passenger transportation
Freight transportation
Other
Beijing Yanshan Petroleum and Chemical Group Corporations
Ethylene
Technology: Diesel oil based process
Capacity : 0.45 Mt /a
Location: Fangshan District, Beijing City
Beijing Shijingshan Thermal Power Plant
Technology: coal boiler
Capacity : 4000 MW
Location: Shijingshan District, Beijing City
Large point sources / Area sources
13
3.2 AIM/Local study for Beijing
(US$/kg-C)
GASTBN
0.7
Case5
Case6
Case7
0.6
0.5
Quit of COLBLR
0.4
LSCBLR, IGCC
0.3
IGCC
0.2
Quit of COLBLR
GASTBN
0.1
IGCC
0.0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
(Mt-C)
24
22
Case 1
20
18
1995
16
Case 5, 6 and 7
14
CO2 intensity
(t-C/km2)
12
10
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
21
2020 (case 1)
CO2 intensity (t-C/km2)
2020 (case 6)
19
14
3.2 AIM/Local study for Beijing
Case4
4
Case8
Case9
(US$/kg-SO2)
Quit of COLBLR_SFGD & LSCBLR
3
Quit of COLBLR_NON & COLBLR_WSH
2
COLBLR+FGD
1
LSCBLR
NGS Oven & Heater
IGCC
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
(Mt-SO2)
0.7
0.6
Case 1
0.5
0.4
1995
GOV
0.3
Case 4, 8 and 9
0.2
SO2 intensity0.1
(t-SO2/km2)
0.0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
20
2020 (case 1)
SO2 intensity (t-SO2/km2)
2020 (case 8)
2020 (case 6)
18
15