Transcript Document

Accountability
..Particularly Progress 8
joining the dots
1
KS4 Accountability
2014
Wolf Review implemented
First entry only counted for performance tables
2015
Some schools opt for Progress 8?
2016
1-8 Scale used for Attainment 8 / Progress 8
New KS2 assessments (September 2016 Y7)
2017
First reformed GCSEs taken (English and mathematics)
1-9 Scale used for performance tables
2018
More reformed GCSEs
2019
Last batch of reformed GCSEs ?
2021
Pupils with new KS2 assessment from 2016 are now Y11
joining the dots
Attainment 8 / Progress 8
Attainment 8
• Uses 0, 1…8 Scale
• Total Points divided by 10
• Shown as a grade e.g. B+
joining the dots
Progress 8
• Value-Added Calculation
• Difference between each pupil’s
Attainment 8 score and the national
average for pupils with same KS2 score
Discounting
Pre-2014
2014 Onwards
Mapping
Wolf Codes
Best grade
First Entry
AS discounts GCSE
Pathways
English, Mathematics,
Science
joining the dots
Floor Standard – The Spotlight Shifts?
joining the dots
16-19 Accountability
Progress
• From KS4, with a combined attainment /
completion measure
Attainment
• Average Grade (In 4 Subject Groups)
English and maths
• English and maths GCSE (for students
without at least a grade C at age 16)
Retention
• % of students who complete ‘core aims’
Destinations
• % of students progressing to sustained
education, employment or training
joining the dots
Progress
Progress calculated by adding up individual subject
value-added scores.
Points Score 0,10,20,30,40,50,60 (A-Level) with other
subjects mapped onto this scale. Current SIZE retained.
No details yet of how KS4 input will be defined.
Subject Group
Measure
Academic (Level 3)
Progress
Applied General (Level 3)
Progress
Tech (Level 3)
Attainment / Completion
Substantial Vocational (Level 2)
Attainment / Completion
Minimum Standard (Floor) will be based on Progress calculations.
No details yet of what threshold will be.
joining the dots
DfE view is that
linkage from
KS4 to these
subjects is too
low to use VA.
So, will show
difference
from national
average.
To be reviewed
in 2018
KS2 Accountability
Tests
• Reading, mathematics, GPS
• Scaled Score
• Probably, 100 = bottom of current Level 4B
• Apply to 2013 data -> national mean score of around
Scaled Score
106
• Reading, writing, mathematics, science
• Writing to use ‘number of descriptors’
Teacher
Assessment • Others to be ‘below, at, above’ end of KS expectations
joining the dots
• ‘High value’ Vocational Subjects
only
• Maximum 1 GCSE equivalent
• Maximum of 2 in Capped Points
Score
• First Entry
Wolf
Changes
Measurement
• New Specifications
• Over 3 years
• Grades 1..9
Attainment
and
Progress 8
• Maximum number of
vocational subjects
changes to 3
joining the dots
GCSE
Points
Reform
Scales
• 0..8
• 0..9
• Adding them together …
9
Volatility
How will schools respond?
• 2014, 2015 (Best 8, Wolf, First Entry)
• 2015, 2016 onwards (Attainment 8 / Progress 8)
How will what OTHER schools do affect you?
• Particularly in terms of curriculum / entry ……
School’s VA will reflect:
• School’s own Entry and Attainment
• Changes in National Entry and Attainment
joining the dots
Entries – EBacc, Other High Value
2.34
2.90
Vocational
qualifications as %
of total ‘other high
value’ entries
Average
number
of
entries
94%
25% (2011)
32% (2012)
30% (2013)
26% (2014)
65%
% with
3
entries
How will things look
in 2015, 2016 .... ?
joining the dots
Components - Entry and Attainment
Overall points score (Attainment 8) is a combination of ENTRY and ATTAINMENT
We can work out a value-added score for each of these, for example:
Pupil
KS2
Entry
A
3.5
8
B
4.5
8
C
5.5
9
Total
Average
Entry
(NAT)
VA
(Entry)
APS
APS
(NAT)
VA
(APS)
7.5
+0.5these4.0
3.6
+0.4
Don’t
use
to calculate
9.0
-1.0for future
5.2
5.0 – +0.2
estimates
years
9.9
-0.9
8.0
7.0
national
entry
patterns
are
likely+1.0
to change!
-1.4
+1.6
-0.5
+0.5
So what does this look like for all schools (if applied to 2013 data) ……………………….
joining the dots
Entry and Attainment
High Entry High Attainment
Quality (APS VA)
Low Entry High Attainment
Risk Floor
326
314
340
Low Entry Low Attainment
96
High Entry Low Attainment
Quantity (Entry VA)
joining the dots
2013
Max Ent
76%
48%
10%
<1%
12%
22%
<1%
15%
Schools
joining the dots
2013 outcomes
2013 outcomes
with 2014
criteria (Wolf)
2013 outcomes
with 2016
criteria
(Progress 8)
2013
outcomes,
Progress 8 but
with all pupils
having 8 entries
Schools
School A – Low Entry, High Average Points Score (LH)
Criteria ->
Rank ->
Best 8
2013
Best 8
2014, Wolf
Progress 8
2013 Entry
Progress 8
Full Entry
28
54
62
7
• 70% Applied Science
• Potential for Progress 8 to improve if Entry increased and attainment maintained
School B – High Entry, High Average Points Score (HH)
Criteria ->
Rank ->
Best 8
2013
Best 8
2014, Wolf
Progress 8
2013 Entry
Progress 8
Full Entry
19
7
7
30
• 35% Applied Science – but most also did Core Science
• Progress 8 score could reduce as other schools increase entry
joining the dots
Schools
School C – High Entry, Low Average Points Score (HL)
Criteria ->
Rank ->
Best 8
2013
Best 8
2014, Wolf
Progress 8
2013 Entry
Progress 8
Full Entry
87
43
38
79
• Relative to 2013 will improve in 2014
• Progress 8 score could reduce as other schools increase entry – unless attainment
relative to KS2 increases faster than national trend
School D – Low Entry, Low Average Points Score (LL)
Criteria ->
Rank ->
Best 8
2013
Best 8
2014, Wolf
Progress 8
2013 Entry
Progress 8
Full Entry
97
91
80
80
• 60% of pupils took combined English
• Can make some improvements in Progress 8 by increasing entry
joining the dots
Choices - English
Literature
• Last year of combined is 2015/2016
• In 2013, combined was taken by:
• 7% of pupils with Level 5 at KS2
• 27% of pupils with Level 4 at KS2
• 57% of pupils with below Level 4 at KS2
Will pupils who
currently do ‘combined’
do Literature in future?
% taking English Literature
prior to 2011
joining the dots
Choices - EBacc
Entry
• Impact of Computing?
• Overall entry improved (2011->2013)
for most pupils
• But decreased slightly for pupils below
Level 4 at KS2
• Entry changes for Hi / Ge / MFL
• 2011->2012->2013
joining the dots
Entries within EBacc
% of pupils with entry in at least one of History, Geography or MFL
joining the dots
Choices - Other
Other ‘High Value’
• Look at subjects in each pupil’s ‘other high value’ subjects in 2013
Key Stage 2
Entry GCSE
Entry Voc.
APS GCSE
APS Voc.
Below Level 4
1.2
1.3
D-
C+
Level 4
1.9
0.9
C
B
Level 5
2.5
0.5
B+
A
‘Non-Completion’ rates
for Vocational subjects
might be much higher
than for GCSE,
particularly for pupils
with low KS2
joining the dots
Applied Science was
counted in this slot for:
• 20% of all pupils
• 53% of pupils below Level 4 at
Key Stage 2
We don’t know how
points will be allocated
to GCSEs and to
Vocational subjects in
2017 (0..9 scale)
Where to Focus?
Calculating likely Attainment 8
Points for pupil / school (using
2013 national outcomes)
Complex.
Likely underestimate.
What will it tell you?
• Entry / Curriculum
• Pupil interest and motivation
• Subject Value-Added and
estimated attainment
Get these right and
Progress 8 will be
fine!
joining the dots
Implications for Evaluation
For the next few years, each school’s P8 VA will depend on:
Improvements in
Pupil Progress
Changes in Entry
Patterns
DfE and OfQual
Decisions
So which indicators will tell you most
about teaching, learning and pupil progress?
Value-Added for Average
Points Score
joining the dots
Value-Added for
Individual Subjects