Transcript Folie 1 - BTU Cottbus

Lehrstuhl
Ökosysteme und
Umweltinformatik
Juan Pablo Gómez Jáuregui Abdó
Department of Ecosystems and Environmental Informatics
Brandenburg University of Technology at Cottbus
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Introduction
Definition of the problem
Research questions
Research hypothesis
Objectives
Methodology
Results
Conclusions
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According to the World Commission on
Environment and Development, sustainable
development (SD) is defined as: „Development
that can meet the needs of the present
generation without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs“
„A nation is achieving SD if it is undergoing a
pattern of development that improves the total
quality of life of every citizen, both now and into
the future, while ensuring its rate of resource use
doesn‘t exceed the regenerative and waste
assimilative capacities of the natural
environment“ (Lawn et al. 2006)
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Composite indices (CI) are aggregated set of
variables into a single value and are used for
ranking case studies performances of one
location (regions, countries, cities, etc.) against
those of others, as well as evaluate performance
over time; and for setting policy objectives
(Blanc et al. 2008)
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A composite index is able to transform large
number of data and other indicators into usable
information for decision makers (van Dijk et al. 2004)
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 Selection
of indicators
 To
determine the transformation
function
 To
determine the indicators
weights
 To
determine the aggregation
function
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Mexico
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Jalisco
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
The city of Guadalajara is the second biggest city
in Mexico and the third in economical importance.
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The Metropolitan Zone of
Guadalajara (MZG)
Population: 4,095,853 inhabitants.
 Surface: 544.7 Km2.
 The main sources of freshwater supply:

◦ Lake Chapala with 5.5 m3/s
◦ Subterranean wells with 4 m3/s
◦ Elias Gonzalez Chavez dam with 0.5 m3/s
◦ Total supply of the city of 10 m3/s
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Lake Chapala

The lagoon can store as maximum around
7900 cubic hectometers
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Actual situation in the MZG:
◦ Water usage per capita in the MZG: 214 l/d.
◦ Total amount of water usage in the MZG per
day: 876,512,5 m3 g 10,14 m3/s
◦ Water usage by 2030 g 12,4 m3/s.
Expected problems for Guadalajara:
◦ Endanger of Lake Chapala.
◦ Severe problems of water availability.
◦ Air quality problems.
◦ Health problems.
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 How
can a composite index
evaluate the sustainability of
water usage at a local scale?
 It is Guadalajara, nowadays,
sustainable in its domestic
water usage?
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
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A composite index can be generated in
order to evaluate the sustainability of an
specific resource, in this case domestic
water consumption, at a local scale.
Based on the big amount of water
consumption per capita and lack of water
treatment, Guadalajara is unsustainable
in its fresh water consumption.
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To develop a water composite index
for sustainable urban domestic water
usage.
 To evaluate the sustainability of
domestic water consumption in the
MZG by a composite index.
 To determine the sustainability level
of the MZG.

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
Indicators:
Sub-Indices
(components).
Environment
Headline
Indicators
Water Quantity
Water Quality
Indicators
Consumption per capita
Total water availability per capita
Dissolved solids
pH
Turbidity
Dissolved oxygen concentration
Fecal Coliforms
Lead
Fluorides
Mercury
arsenic
Nitrates
Nitrites
Amm.N
Chlorides
Benzene
Pesticides
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
Indicators:
Sub-Indices
(components).
Headline
Indicators
Water poverty
Social
Poverty
Civic
participation
Water economy
GDP
Economy
Water
Infrastructure
Indicators
% of population connected with water
supply system.
% of population connected to sewage
system
1 - % of population living below Patrimonial
Poverty Line
1 - Gini index of income inequality
% of population that use a water saving
dispositive or implement at least one water
saving method
Water company Income/Cost relation
GDP of the city.
% of water loss in distribution vs. Total
Water extracted
% of water treated of total waste water
produced
% of treated wastewater reused.
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 Normalization:
◦ Variables expressed in terms of
percentages
X i max  X i
Vi ( X i ) 
◦A
X i max  X i min
◦ Cpk (Process capability index)
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 Cpk:
USL     LSL
Cpk  min
,

3 
 3
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 Cpk:
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 Aggregation
◦ Main Index:
method:
W1 EnI  W2 SI  W3 EI
WSI 
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◦ Sub indices:
n
EnI   (WEn i  EnVi )
i 1
n
SI   (WS i  SVi )
i 1
◦ Water quality index:
n
EI   (WE i  EVi )
i 1
n
Water _ Quality  Vi
Wi
i 1
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 Weighting:
◦ Delphi Method:
 Academic
 NGOs
 Water management entities
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
Water availability (Lake Chapala):
Minimum lake volumes
6000
Cubic Hectometers
5000
Sustainable
limit
4000
Critical
3000
volume
2000
1000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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
Water consumption per capita per day:
250
240
Liters
230
220
210
200
190
180
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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
Water quality:
Water quality index
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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
Percentage of total houses connected
to water supply system & drainage:
95.50%
95.00%
% Of houses
94.50%
connected to
water supply
94.00%
system
93.50%
% Of houses
connected to
93.00%
draiange
system
92.50%
92.00%
91.50%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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
Gini Index, Percentage of population
living in patrimonial poverty and GDP per
capita:
0.44
0.42
GDP per
0.4
capita
0.38
Patrimonial
poverty
0.36
Gini index
0.34
0.32
0.3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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A
Gini _ Index
A  B
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 Percentage
of population that use
a water saving dispositive or
implement at least one water
saving method:
65,33%
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Water company income & expenses:
3000
2500
Pesos in millions

2000
1500
Total expenses
Total Income
1000
500
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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
Percentage of water loss in distribution
vs. total water extracted
38.50%
38.00%
37.50%
37.00%
36.50%
36.00%
35.50%
35.00%
34.50%
34.00%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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
Percentage of water treated of total
wastewater produced & Percentage of
treated wastewater reused
20.00%
15.00%
% of treated
wastewater
10.00%
% treated
wastewater reused.
5.00%
0.00%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Environmental Index, Social Index & Economical Index
1
Sustainable
0.9
Good perfromance but not
Index performance
0.8
sustainable.
Regular Performance
0.7
Bad Performance
0.6
Totally unsustaibale
0.5
Env. Index
0.4
Trend Env. Ind.
0.3
Soc. Index
0.2
Trend Soc. Ind.
0.1
Econ. Index
0
Trend Econ. Ind.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
f Env ( x)  606.94  79.4  ln(x)
f Soc ( x)  34.86  4.68 ln(x)
f Econ ( x)  305.09  40.18 ln(x)
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
Sustainability in domestic water
consumption in the MZG
Water Sustainability Index
1
Sustainable
Index performance
0.8
Good perfromance but
not sustainable.
Regular Performance
0.6
Bad Performance
0.4
Totally unsustaibale
0.2
Trend WSI
0
WSI
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
f ( x)  315.63  41.6  ln(x)
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◦ The City of Guadalajara can’t be
considered sustainable in its domestic
water consumption
◦ The trend is showing sustainability in
Guadalajara is improving
◦ The main improvement aspects are:
 Water treatment.
 To reduce poverty and increasing equality.
 To reduce the amount of water lost in the
system.
 To increase the use of water saving dispositives
and methods.
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◦ The model can be used in a local scale;
however, some socio-economical
indicators are commonly measured for a
regional or global scale.
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