Transcript 2007 ATA Presentation Template

Motor Carrier Industry
Overview
April 2007
Tavio Headley
Economist
American Trucking Associations
130
ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage
Index
120
110
100
90
80
70
2000=100 ; Through February 2007
60
50
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: ATA
ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage
Index
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
2001
Source: ATA
Year-over-year Percent Change; Through February 2007
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
For-Hire Trucking Volumes
1%
2006 percent change
0.3%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-1.7%
Tonnage
Loads
Sources: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report & Monthly Truck Tonnage Report
ATA’s Flatbed Freight Loads
Index
20%
15%
Year-over-year Percent Change; Through February 2007
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
2005
Source: ATA
2006
2007
2007 Started Poorly
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
Year-to-date percent change through February
Rail
Intermodal
TL Loads
LTL
Shipments
Rail Carloads
x Coal
Sources: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report & AAR
140
ATA’s For-Hire Truck Revenue
Index
130
2000=100 ; Through February 2007
120
Costs:
Engines
Drivers
Congestion
110
100
90
2001
Source: ATA
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
ATA’s For-Hire Truck Revenue
Index
25%
Year-over-year Percent Change;
Through February 2007
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
2001
Source: ATA
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Real Revenue per Mile
1980=100
100
90
In 2006, real revenue per mile
was still 30 percent lower than
in 1980.
80
70
60
50
1980
Source: ATA
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Projected Growth in Freight
Transportation Tonnage: 2005 to
2017
+31% Total Percent Increase 2005 to 2017
14
Billions of Tons
12
2005
2017
10
8
6
+27%
4
+21%
2
+29%
+79%
+72%
0
Truck
Rail
Pipeline
Water
Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to…2017
Rail
Intermodal
Air
Growth in the Commercial Truck Population
Total Increase from 2005 to 2017; Millions of Trucks
10.0
All Commercial Trucks
Tractor Trailers
9.3
+40%
6.6
5.0
1.9
2.5
+32%
0.0
2005
Sources: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to…2017 & ATA
2017
Trucking Capacity
Growth in TL Fleet vs. Demand
2006 Increase
3%
2.3%
2%
1%
0.3%
0%
Loads
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Net Fleet Increase
U.S. Class 8 Truck Sales
300,000
200,000
?
100,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Sources: WardsAuto.com and ATA
Capacity Conclusions
• Capacity likely to tighten
throughout the year
• Fundamentals still support tighter
capacity (driver shortage)
• 2007 Class 8 truck sales are
expected to be significantly lower
than 2006
Drivers…
The shortage continues
and it is the #1
constraint to increasing
capacity
Today’s Driver Shortage:
Long-haul Truckload Drivers
120,000
111,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
20,000
0
2004
Source: Global Insight, Inc. for ATA
2014
Line-Haul Driver Turnover Rates
140%
120%
130%
117%
96%
100%
109%
80%
2005
2006
60%
40%
15%12%
20%
0%
Large TL
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Small TL
LTL
TL Average Miles per Load
2006 percent change
12%
11.0%
10%
8%
6%
Large TL
Small TL
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-2.0%
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Highway Congestion 1998
All Vehicles
Highway Congestion 2020
All Vehicles
Freight Corridors & Top 200 Bottlenecks:
Cost to the Trucking Industry
243 Million Hours Lost Annually
Cost $7.8 Billion/year
Physical bottlenecks account for 40%
of congestion
Source: FHWA
Truckload Productivity:
Index of Miles per Truck per Month: 2000 = 100
Trucking productivity is
slipping due to:
110
Congestion
Driver Home Time
Falling Average Length of Haul
Hours of Service Rule Changes
105
100
95
2000
Source: ATA
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Fuel Prices
National On-Highway Average Diesel Fuel Price
($/Gallon)
Sources: Department of Energy & ATA
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Today: ≈ $2.84/gallon
1994
$3.30
$3.10
$2.90
$2.70
$2.50
$2.30
$2.10
$1.90
$1.70
$1.50
$1.30
$1.10
$0.90
Diesel Prices
Price per Gallon
$2.85
Forecasts
$2.75
$2.65
$2.55
$2.45
2006:Q4 2007:Q1
Q2
Q3
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
Q4
2008:Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Trucking’s Annual Cost for Diesel
(Billions of US$)
$110
Forecast
$103.3
$100
$105.9
$91.8
$90
$80
$65.9
$70
$60
$50
$52.2
$44.7
$40
2002
Source: ATA
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1,400
1,200
Trucking Failures vs. the Price
of Diesel Fuel
$3.00
$2.70
Failures only includes fleets
with at least five trucks
$2.40
1,000
$2.10
800
$1.80
600
$1.50
Trucking Failures
Q1 06
Q1 05
Q1 04
Q1 03
Q1 02
Q1 01
Q1 00
Q1 99
Q1 98
Q1 97
Q1 96
Q1 95
Q1 94
Q1 93
$0.90
Q1 92
200
Q1 91
$1.20
Q1 90
400
National Avg. Price of Diesel Fuel
Sources: A.G. Edwards & ATA
2007 Economic Outlook
Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from a year earlier
5%
Forecasts
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2001
Sources: BEA & ATA
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Goods Producing Economy
4%
4.0%
percent change from a year earlier
3.1%
3%
Forecasts
3.1%
2%
1.2%
1%
0%
2005
Sources: ATA
2006
2007
2008
Residential Investment
Percent change from a year earlier
10%
Forecasts
5%
0%
2001
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Sources: BEA & ATA
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Inventory Trends
1.48
Total Supply Chain
1.44
1.40
Inventory-to-Sales Ratio
1.36
1.32
1.28
1.24
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Census Bureau
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