Transcript Slide 1

UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
1.
IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES:
FROM TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL
PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE
Director, Centre for the Study of Public Policy
George Washington University
17 November 2008
UGWT-Nov08.ppt 7.11.08
2.
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3. STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION--AND ITS AFTERMATH
1. The prior equilibrium: stable but not durable
2. Disruption: Polity, Economy, Society, State
.
3. Legacy: an anti-modern party-state
4. Bottom up responses:
Coping strategies; adaptation; opportunities
5. New equilibrium: A stable state is not a static state
6. Divergence between European studies and Post-Soviet studies
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4. MAKING PROGRESS AND FALLING BEHIND
1949
1960
1970 1980
1989
Change
Female life expectancy (years)
Germany: East
69
72
72
75
76
7
Germany: West
67
72
73
76
79
12
Austria
67
72
73
76
79
12
Czechoslovakia
65
73
73
74
75
10
Hungary
63
70
72
73
74
11
Poland
62
70
73
75
75
13
Sources: UN, World Health, OECD health statistics; UN Demographic
Yearbook, 1979, special historical supplement; UNICEF International
Child Development Centre, Children at Risk in Central and Eastern
Europe, 1997, p. 123.
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5. MODERN AND ANTI-MODERN SOCIETIES COMPARED
Modern
Anti-modern
Rule of law
Yes, bureaucratic
Arbitrary, political
Openness
Transparent
Opaque
Signals
Prices, laws
False accounts, bribes,
personal contacts
Cause and effect
Predictable
Uncertain
Output
Efficient
Inefficient
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6. CEE ASPIRATIONS: RETURN TO MITTELEUROPA
Czechoslovakia
Hungary
Poland
Average
%
%
%
%
Germany
31
38
37
35
Sweden
32
34
21
29
United States
14
10
30
18
Italy
9
9
0
6
France
5
2
7
5
Britain
3
3
3
3
Other
6
2
2
3
Soviet Union
0
1
0
0.3
Source: Freedom House, Democracy, Economic Reform and Western
Assistance: Data Tables, 1991, p. 154.
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7. RUSSIAN ASPIRATIONS
Q. We often hear the following words. What feelings do they evoke?
% Positive
% Negative
Freedom
4%
Christianity
3%
One and indivisible Russia
5%
Glasnost (Openness)
Capitalism
Socialism
78%
75%
73%
63%
16%
28%
25%
33%
Perestroika 45%
(Restructuring)
MarxismLeninism
37%
-40%
24%
21%
16%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer,
1992. Those saying “difficult to answer” are not shown.
80%
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8. OPPORTUNITY: FREEDOM
East German evaluation of policies of former regime, Federal Republic:
Social security
97%
Old regime
Federal Republic
24%
Freedom to say what you think
Old regime
13%
82%
Federal Republic
Freedom of religious worship
Old regime
34%
97%
Federal Republic
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Source: Richard Rose, Wolfgang Zapf and Wolfgang Seifert, Germans in
Comparative Perspective, 1993.
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9. ECONOMIC SHOCK TO OFFICIAL ECONOMIES
% 1990 GDP
140%
Poland
120%
Slovenia
Slovakia
Hungary
Czech R.
100%
Estonia
Romania
Bulgaria
Lithuania
80%
60%
40%
1990
Russia
Latvia
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Source: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,
Transition Report 2001: Energy in Transition, 2001, Table A.3.1, p. 59.
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10. ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Gross domestic product
1990: 100
200%
190%
180%
170%
160%
150%
140%
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
Est
60%
50%
1994 '95 '96
% 1990 real GDP
Pol
Slve
Hun
Svk
Cze
Bul
Rom
Lat
Lith
'97
'98
'99 2000 '01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06 2007
Source: EBRD, Transition Report, 2001, 2007; 2006 figures are based on
estimates, 2007 figures on forecasts.
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11. IMPROVEMENTS IN HEALTH
Male life expectancy in years
1990
Fall (year)
Peak (year)
2005
Slovenia
69.4
0
+3.8 (2003)
73.2
Czech Republic
68.1
0
+4.0 (2001)
72.0
Poland
66.5
-0.4 (1991)
+4.3 (2005)
70.8
Slovakia
66.6
0
+3.5 (2005)
70.1
Bulgaria
68.1
-1.0 (1995)
+0.9 (2005)
69.0
Hungary
65.1
-0.6 (1993)
+3.5 (2004)
68.6
Romania
66.6
-1.4 (1997)
+2.2 (2005)
68.2
Estonia
64.6
-3.5 (1995)
+2.7 (2005)
67.3
Latvia
64.2
-3.5 (1994)
+2.9 (2004)
67.1
Lithuania
66.4
-3.8 (1994)
+0.4 (2000)
66.4
Belarus
66.3
-4.1 (1999)
-2.9 (2000)
62.9
Ukraine
66.0
-5.0 (1996)
-3.0 (1998)
62.2
Russia
63.8
-6.2 (1994)
-2.5 (1998)
58.9
New EU countries
Post-Soviet countries
Source: MONEE project, Innocenti Social Monitor (2007), Table 4.3. Latest figures for
Latvia and Lithuania are from 2004.
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12. NORMALIZATION IN RUSSIA
Q. Do you think Russian life today is that of a normal society?
2000a
2001
2003a
2004
2005
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
2
9
15
10
10
19
32
+30
11
13
25
18
26
27
32
+21
13
21
40
28
36
46
64
+51
Only a little
54
50
40
45
49
40
26
-28
Not at all
33
29
20
27
15
14
10
-23
87
79
60
72
64
54
36
-51
Definitely
Fairly
Normal
Not normal
2007a 2008
Source: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, New Russia Barometer.
Change
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13. CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION
Transparency International Corruption Index
Old EU members
10 Highest integrity
New EU members
Denmark, Finland 9.4
Sweden 9.3
Netherlands 9.0
Luxembourg, United Kingdom 8.4
Austria 8.1
Germany 7.8
OLD EU 15 MEAN 7.6
Ireland 7.5
France 7.3
Belgium 7.1
Spain 6.7 6.6 Slovenia
Portugal 6.5 6.5 Estonia
5.8 (Malta)
5.3 Hungary, (Cyprus)
Italy 5.2 5.2 Czech Republic
5.0 MEAN OF NEW EU
4.9 Slovakia
Greece 4.6 4.8 Latvia, Lithuania
4.2 Poland
4.1 Bulgaria
3.7 Romania
1 Most corrupt
Source: Transparency International, TI Corruption Perceptions Index 2007,
www.transparency.org. Accessed 20 May 2008.
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14. DIVERGENCE OF POST-COMMUNIST STATES
New EU
Perception of
Corruption Index
Post-Soviet
10
9
8
7
Sve
Est
6
Freedom House rating
Hun
Cze
Svk
Lat, Lit
Pol
5
Arm
4
Rom
Bul
Geo
Mol
3
7
Tur
Uzb
Bel
Rus 5
Aze, Kaz,
Taj
3
Kyr
2
1
Ukr
1
Sources: perception of corruption index: Transparency International, 2007; Freedom House
rating: Freedom House, 2007.