Transcript FSNWG presentation - Disaster risk reduction

June 2014
Food Security & Nutrition Working Group
Eastern and Central African Region
Agenda
June 19, 2014
Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO
Situation Analysis & Outlook:
09:30-10:30
Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate, nutrition
& refugees
FAO, WFP, FEWSNET, ICPAC,
IPC, ACF, UNICEF, UNHCR
Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (JJA) Forecast ICPAC
– El nino Update
Presentation:
10:30 -11:30
Situation and Response Analysis Framework: A new approach Response Analysis Subgroup
to Contingency Planning.
2014
June
June 2014
CHANGING ROLES OF THE FOOD SECURITY & NUTRITION WORKING
GROUP
•The FSNWG started around 2002 as an informal meeting of
food security practioneers.
•In 2006, the FSNWG became part of Inter-Agency Working
Group
•FSNWG has evolved since then and currently include regional
government, donor, and non-government and academic bodies.
•With more recent changes within East and Central Africa, the
FSNWG needs to be realigned with the new developments,
such as the Resilience agenda and doing business differently.
•Once the functions and governance structure of the FSNWG is
endorsed by IGAD and FSNWG members, the TORs for the
FSNWG will be revised in line with the new changes.
2014
June
June 2014
Current FSNWG Functions
Early
Warning /
Monitoring
Strategic
Linkages
FSNWG
Subgroups
Forum &
Debate
2014
June
June 2014
FSNWG Proposed Expanded Functions
Early Warning –
linking to GHACOF
/Food and
Nutrition Security
monitoring
Regional
IPC
Analysis
Information
sharing and
Management
FSNWG
Analysis of cross
border issues on
food and nutrition
security that are of
benefit to the region
& member states
Contribute to
information on
the Resilience
Agenda and
linking to the
IDDRISI
Identification of
Research gaps
that will enrich
food and
nutrition
understanding
Debate and inform
food and nutrition
security policy
issues that are
relevant to IGAD
and member states
2014
June
June 2014
FSNWG Proposed Expanded Functions
Chair
- IGAD
(The sector
within IGAD to
be decided by
the ES)
- Co-Chair
(to be Selected
from Agencies
that are
represented in
the Technical
Steering
Committee)
Management
Steering Committee
Technical Steering
Committee
Secretariat
- Responsible
for:
- Responsible for:
- Responsible
for:
• Policy direction
• Governance
• Resource
mobilization
- Members to
include:
• IGAD preferred the
ES or nominated
Senior Official
• Selected relevant
Heads of UN
agencies
• Heads of one or
two NGOs
• A Country Office
selected by the
member states
• Chair and Co chair
of the FSNWG are
the Secretariat
• A Donor funding
the FSNWG will be
coopted into the
Committee
• Technical inputs for the food
and nutrition situation
• Drafting the FSNWG annual
work plan and strategy
• Reviewing the performance
of the FSNWG
• Give direction to the
Secretariat
• Help in organizing meetings
and events for the FSNWG
Members to include:
• UN agencies providing
technical contributions to
regional food and nutrition
situation
• NGOS providing technical
inputs
• Chair (focal persons) of the
FSNWG working groups
• Chair (Focal persons) of the
Food and Nutrition
Sector/Working Group of
member states
• IGAD relevant sector
• Organizing
meetings through
the chair
• Taking minutes for
meetings
• Maintaining and
managing the
FSNWG data and
websites
• Sharing
information with
members
-What
Constitute the
Secretariat
• Secretariat could
either be funded
by agencies; IGAD,
etc;
OR
• Agencies rotate on
an annual basis
FSNWG
Plenary
- Responsible
for:
•Attending
meetings
• contributing to
information used
in food and
nutrition
updates
•Participate in
research to fill in
identified
•Two annual
meetings
involving
member states
presentations
will be held.
•Plenary sessions
on food security
will be bimonthly
•Ad-hoc meetings
will be held as
necessary and
also for specific
thematic topics
-Membership:
•Open to interested
NGOs, Private
Sector, UN agencies,
Donors
2014
June
June 2014
PROPOSED FSNWG REFORM TIMELINE
•Consultation with IGAD secretariatIDDRSI unit, member states and
participating country. July-August
•Consultation with FSNWG members on
the FSNWG reforms - August
•Finalizing TOR for the FSNWG AugustSept.
• Launch of the new look FSNWG - Sept
2014
June
June 2014
FSNWG Proposed Expanded Functions
WE NEED YOUR FEEDBACK
Regional Highlights
June 2014
Current Conditions:
Many regions are in stressed condition and specific areas are under crisis or
emergency (CAR/DRC/South Sudan and part of Afar Region of Ethiopia). Some
areas are at risk of further deterioration (South Sudan, CAR, Sudan)
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
South Sudan
• Impacts of conflict deepening for displaced populations and host
communities, who are under severe food stress, especially in Jonglei,
Unity and Upper Nile States.
• About 3.5 million people require humanitarian assistance 2.4 million
people face Crisis (IPC Phase 3),1.1 million people face Emergency
(IPC Phase 4) food insecurity. Current EMOP targets1.3 million.
• About 50 percent of the population in Crisis and 70 percent of in
Emergency are located in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile States.
• Over 1.3 million people have been displaced, 1.04 million are
displaced internally and about 367,000 are in Ethiopia, Uganda,
Sudan and Kenya.
• Prevalence of acute malnutrition at emergency levels (15-30%) in
Jonglei (except Pochalla county), Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and
Upper Nile. Lakes, Unity, and Warrap States are experiencing crisis
levels of acute malnutrition (10-15%).
• Food prices in conflict areas exceptionally high and volatile.
Sorghum prices up to three times higher than in other regional
markets. Markets have been disrupted and access is impeded.
• Agricultural activities disrupted by limited access to production
inputs, loss of capital, constrained access to farms/displacements.
• Households have reduced access to key food and income sources
(firewood/charcoal, agriculture labor).
• Flooding likely to worsen situation for the IDPs and residents in
Northern BEG, Lakes,Warrap, Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile.
• Risk of famine in Mayendit, Koch, Panyijar, and Leer Counties in
Unity; Ayod, Duk, Uror, and Nyirol counties in Jonglei and Baliet
possible
in localized
sub‐county
of Jonglei
and Panyikang
in Upper Nile
States.
Without urgent action, famine is
and Unity States during the coming 4 months
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Sudan
• About 5 million people are acutely food insecure in Sudan, a 10
percent increase since April, due to conflict, restricted trade,
constrained access to humanitarian assistance, reduced access to
income sources‘, low production and high food prices.
• Continued conflict in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile States
has triggered additional displacements of up to 83,500 people.
Majority of IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas are Crisis and
Emergency (IPC Phase 3 and 4).
• Another 20,000 South Sudanese refugees arrived in Sudan in April
and May. Since the conflict began in December 2013, an estimated
80,000 people have crossed the border into Sudan to White Nile,
Khartoum, and South Kordofan States.
• State authorities in South and East Darfur states confirmed large
food deficits of 228,000 tons and 175,000 tons, respectively, due to
last year’s poor harvest.
• Subsequently, staple food prices are rising and are atypically high sorghum prices are over 50 percent higher than last year and up to
130 percent higher than the five-year average.
• Current assistance unlikely to cover food deficits; and FEWS NET
expects significant food consumption gaps in North, East and South
Darfur states.
• ToTs between sheep and sorghum have declined by up to 40 percent
due to high sorghum prices which are highest in El Fasher, Nyala,
Omdurman, El Damer and El Obeid markets..
• High levels of chronic food insecurity in Red Sea, Kassala, North
Kordofan and White Nile States are compounded by high food prices
and declining macroeconomic indicators,
Food insecurity worsens with record-high cereal prices and intensified
conflict that is likely to continue (Tribal clashes and between SAF and SPLM-N)
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Somalia
• Conflict, high food prices, restricted humanitarian assistance,
constrained labor opportunities and mediocre rains,
accentuating food insecurity in the riverine and agropastoral
livelihood zones.
• Many households in conflict affected urban areas (Buloburte,
Jowhar, Qoryoley and Hudur), coastal pastoral areas in
central and northeast regions and agropastoral (Middle Juba)
are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• Food security outcomes for poor households in conflictaffected areas in the Shabelle Valley including in Qoryoley
and Jowhar Districts, parts of Galgaduud, northern Gedo,
Bakool, and parts of Hiraan are deteriorating due to high
food prices and unusually low access to labor opportunities.
• Trade restrictions in conflict-affected areas are increasing
cereal prices reducing food access for poor households.
• Food insecurity is accentuating in the agropastoral areas in
Gedo, Hiran and Togdher regions due to poor crop and
rangeland development and limited milk availability after
livestock migrated.
• Conflict is expected to intensify, affecting trade, population
movement and humanitarian assistance among pastoralists
in Bari, Central, Sanag and Gedo.
• An estimated 857,000 people are projected to remain
acutely food insecure through June 2014.
Food security is deteriorating in the South due to intensified conflict
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Uganda
• Key areas of concern are the Central Sorghum and Livestock
and Western mixed crop farming livelihood zone in
Karamoja.
• Consistent low and erratic rainfall has delayed crop
development, reduced livestock productivity and constrained
labor availability in the Kaabong, Moroto, and Kotido Districts
in Karamoja region.
• The lean season will be prolonged beyond July, and the
current Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) could deteriorate further to
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by the end of July, without assistance.
• Karamoja is Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) but only with the
presence of humanitarian assistance. Without this assistance,
they would most likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• About 40 percent of the population is depending on
humanitarian assistance, higher by 20 percent in a normal
year. The proportion of household food expenditure is high
by 50-70 percent compared to 40 percent in a normal year.
• Reduced agricultural labor income has lowered purchasing
capacities constraining food access.
• Poor households will likely be unable to fully meet food
needs through July, which if not met by food assistance may
result in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• Over 108,000 South Sudan refugees have arrived into
Northern Ugandan districts of Arua,
Adjumani and
Kiryandongo since start of the conflict.
Karamoja food security further deteriorates as the lean season started
earlier following below average harvest from the last season.
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Djibouti
• Poor pastoralists in the Southeast Pastoral
Borderside livelihood zone, Obock Region, and
Northwest Pastoral livelihood zone are in
Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Obock region is worst –
affected.
• A 50 percent reduction in humanitarian
assistance during May, below average March to
May Diraac/Sugum rains, and constrained labor
opportunities have accelerated the decline in
household food security.
• Less than 30 percent of the population that
was targeted prior to June 2013 has access to
humanitarian assistance.
• Poor households are unable access food needs
without adopting irreversible coping strategies,
including increased charcoal production.
• Rates of child malnutrition had surpassed
WHO’s emergency thresholds as early as
December 2013, in most regions, the worst
being Obock.
Emergency situation in North – East of the Country
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Ethiopia
• Poor and very poor households exhausted their stocks earlier than
normal, due to a poor Meher harvest in eastern, marginal, agricultural
areas in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia, and in the lowlands in East and
West Hararghe Zone in Oromia Region. Poor and very poor
households remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• About average February to May cumulative rainfall is likely to
support a near average Belg harvest from June to August, improving
food availability in Belg-growing areas. These areas in Amhara
Region are expected to improve from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from July.
• The March to May Sugum rains below normal in Dalul, Berhale,
Erebti, Afedera, Elidar, Bidu, and Kurri Woredas in northeastern Afar
Region. Pasture, browse, and severe water shortages are causing
abnormally low livestock productivity, reducing household income
and food access. Poor households in these areas remain in Crisis
(IPC Phase 3).
• March to May rains have been below average in southern Somali
and Borena Zone in southern Oromia. This is likely to lead to
early depletion of pasture and water, reducing livestock production
and productivity. Poor households remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!)
but only with continued humanitarian assistance.
• Desert locusts have caused limited damage to crops and rangelands
in northern Somali and eastern and central Oromia. With control
measures underway and anticipated to continue, the infestation is
not likely to significantly damage Belg crops or forage availability.
Continued influx of South Sudanese refugees particularly in Gambella.
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Kenya
• An estimated 1.3 million people in acute food insecurity, in
the southeastern, agropastoral, pastoral and coastal
marginal agricultural areas, with majority of the population
in these regions remaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
• Most pastoralists remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2); except
Loiyangalani and North Horr in Marsabit, and Kaaling,
Lapur and Loima in Turkana in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• Severe deterioration in the agro pastoral areas of Baringo,
Narok, West Pokot, Laikipia and Kajiado), currently Stressed
(IPC Phase 2 with likelihood of localized areas moving into
crisis (IPC Phase 3) from July 2014.
• Slower than normal development of maize in the surplusproducing Rift Valley and western highlands will likely result
in average to below average harvest.
• Likely delayed harvesting may contribute to food prices
remaining elevated longer than normal hence constraining
household food access.
• Food insecurity declining in conflict-affected pastoral areas
of Wajir, Mandera, Moyale, Garissa, Marsabit, in addition to
heightened food prices, reduced milk availability and below
average seasonal rains.
About 1.3 million people remain acutely food insecure in the southeastern,
pastoral and coastal marginal agricultural areas.
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Rwanda
• Poor households in the Lake Kivu Coffee livelihood zone
and the Eastern Congo Nile Highland Subsistence Farming
zone are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food
insecurity through June.
• Rainfall deficits are negatively affecting crops like beans,
maize, soybeans, wheat, and peas which are currently at
grain filling stages.
• Remote sensing and field reports suggest atypical dryness
in many areas of the country which has negatively affected
vegetation and crop performance.
• Poor households depleted stocks from own production
one month early this year, becoming market dependent
earlier than normal and have difficulties covering food
requirements.
• Households in these areas resort to coping strategies such
as atypical labor migration and sale of livestock, to meet
essential food and non-food needs,.
• However, food security outcomes are expected to
improve in June, when Season B harvests are available.
• Banana Xanthomonas Wilt Disease is threatening
production of bananas and has been declared a national
threat by the Rwanda Agricultural Board
Stressed food security outcomes during the peak of the lean season.
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Burundi
• Poor households in the Plateaux Humides and Dépression de
l’Est livelihood zones are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as
Season B harvests become available.
• Rainfall deficits were observed over the last 30 days during
the March to May Season B. Rainfall deficits are likely to
reduce overall harvests.
• Prices are higher than average in many markets especially
for beans, cassava flour and sweet potatoes, which are
between 13 and 41 percent higher than the five-year
average.
• Below-average Season B harvests will likely put further
upward pressure on staple food prices, as the harvest will
be exhausted earlier than usual.
• Poor households have very limited assets and few labor
opportunities, and are particularly vulnerable to price
variability and have a lower capacity to respond to shocks.
• Households in the Plateaux Humides livelihood zone
reported reducing non-food expenditures on agriculture
inputs, healthcare and education.
• Atypical migration from Kirundo Province to Bugesera
District has been recently reported, due to food shortages.
Tensions over 2015 election preparations continued. Risk of reviving ethnic
demons.
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Tanzania
• With access to food from markets and from recent harvests,
Minimal (IPC Phase 1) is expected from June to September in
most areas.
• However, localized pockets of food insecurity are likely in
Dodoma, Mwanza, and Mara Regions following below normal
March to May rainfall which will likely reduce the size of
the Masika harvest.
• Maize and rice prices will likely continue to be stable due to
adequate availability of stocks 2013 harvests and likely average
to above-average production from the Msimu harvest from
May to July.
• There is increasing demand for maize from Kenya, likely leading
to higher prices in some border areas.
• Adequate moisture in the unimodal areas and above-normal
rainfall received in most bimodal areas has allowed pasture
regeneration, and the rains have fully recharged water points
for livestock.
Stable food prices across the Country ensure food access for poor
households.
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
CAR IPC May 2014, FAO
• Insecurity and tensions exacerbate food insecurity
particularly in the northwest region of the country (IPC
Phase 4).
• Country facing acute and complex emergency esp. in conflict
affected areas.
• Performance of most economic sectors have declined since
2012 with implications on income generation.
• Food security situation has deteriorated with the beginning
of the lean season.
• 1.7 million are in humanitarian phases (3 and 4), they were
900 000 in those phases in November 2013 the number of
people acutely food insecure has likely sharply increased.
• Access to food is curtailed by widespread displacement,
depletion of household food stocks, destruction of
livelihoods and loss of productive assets, inability to raise
income, rising food prices, market disruption or limited
access to markets.
June 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
DRC FEWSNET, IPC, FAO
• Prices of staples were stable or lower
in February than in January.
• Conflict and displacement along the
border with CAR, and armed groups
in the Kivu region continue to be of
concern and cause of food insecurity.
• Chronic food insecurity in some
Provinces in the west.
• Poor and borderline consumption
common among rural communities
• Food production in 2013 was at
average levels.
• The number of people in acute food
insecurity and livelihood crisis (IPC
phases 3 and 4) estimated at 6.7
million (Dec 2013).
• Nutrition crisis in the west in
Mitwaba: lives characterized by food
distress (90.7 percent of households
affected by food insecurity) and a
nutritional emergency (21.6 percent
of children six to 59 months
prevalence
of
global
acute
malnutrition).
Conflicts a major driver of food insecurity in the country.
June 2014
Population in Crisis and Emergency - June 2014
Country
Population in
IPC Phase 3 & 4
Burundi
78,948
Rwanda
260,650
CAR
Djibouti
1,700,000
120,000
DRC
6,700,000
Ethiopia
2,736,490
Kenya
1,300,000
Somalia
870,000
South Sudan
3,500,000
Sudan
5,000,000
Uganda
560,000
Tanzania
Total
50,000
Table:
22,876,088
June 2014
Regional Food Security Outlook
Key Areas of Concern:
• South Sudan – Famine (IPC Phase 5) outcomes likely in in localized
areas of Unity and Jonglei States during the June-August 2014 period,
in the absence of humanitarian assistance.
• Sudan – Emergency (IPC Phase 4) likely to persist in SPLM-N
controlled areas of South Kordofan, for at least 40 percent of IDPs and
host communities, through September.
• Somalia – southern and central agropastoral and riverine areas, due
to conflict, combined with restricted trade, heightened food prices,
constrained humanitarian assistance and erratic Gu rains in some
parts.
• Ethiopia – Poor households in northeastern Tigray and in the Tekeze
River catchment; and pastoralists in northeastern Afar, where Crisis
(IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist through September.
• Djibouti – Obock region where humanitarian access is restricted,
including halving of food rations, coupled with exceptionally low
household livestock holdings (less than one TLU) negating food access.
June
2014
June 2014
Nutrition Update
Kenya
Situation analysis:
• Case load map to be updated in June following
completion of several surveys
• Nutrition surveys completed in Garissa, Turkana,
Samburu. Findings awaiting validation . Preliminary
findings indicate deterioration of nutrition situation
• On going surveys include West Pokot, Baringo, Wajir
and Mandera counties
• Planning for LRA has begun
Sector provided support to
•
NDMA in the roll out of new EWS on nutrition
indicators to enhance component of the same
•
KDHS during training and actual field work with focus
on anthropometric measurements
Other updates
•
Annual Work plan being finalized.
•
Nutrition website approved by NTF to go live.
Comments to be sent to [email protected]
About 1.3 million people remain acutely food insecure in the southeastern,
pastoral and coastal marginal agricultural areas.
June 2014
June 2014
Treatment of Acute Malnutrition
Targeted
Reached
600,000
420,000
400,000
200,000
596,283
176,283
33,793
42,765
76,558
0
Severe Acute
Malnutrition
•
Moderate
Global Acute
Acute
Malnutrition
Malnutrition
Low acute malnutrition treatment coverage due to:
•
•

Service disruption in conflict affected areas
Increased needs and capacity issues
Operational plan underdevelopment to scale the acute
malnutrition response
June 2014
MARKETS & PRICES UPDATE
June 2014
Figure 1a: Retail sorghum prices in selected markets in Eastern Africa.
2009-2013 Average
2014 and projections
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
El Obeid (Sudan)
Aweil* (South Sudan,
2012-2013 average)
Gulu (Uganda)
Dire Dawa** (Ethiopia,
2010-2013 wholesale
average)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
100
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Price (USD/MT)
1400
Baidoa (Somalia)
Figure 2a: Maize prices in selected markets in East Africa.
2009-2013 Average
2014 and projections
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
June 2014
500
300
200
Mombasa (Kenya)
Tororo (Uganda)
Arusha (Tanzania)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
100
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Price (USD/MT)
400
Rukumo* (Rwanda, two year
average and retail)
June 2014
Information for Better Livelihoods
Somalia Post-Gu Early
Warning (Situation Analysis)
FSNWG, Nairobi
19 June 2014
June 2014
Post-Deyr Situation
In January-June 2014, an estimated 857,000 people were classified in
Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) requiring urgent
humanitarian; IDPs represent the majority (635 000 or 74%)
Additional 2 million people were Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through June
2014.
June 2014
Climate
Late start and
largely below
normal rainfall in
most parts of
Somalia;
Moderate MarchMay rains were
received only in:
Bay and
southern Gedo;
parts of Middle
and Lower Juba;
parts of pastoral
areas (Hawd and
West Golis) of
Togdheer and
Woqooyi
Galbeed regions
in the Northwest.
April 2014 TAMSAT RFE Diff from
LTM
Mar-Jun 2014 TAMSAT RFE Diff
from LTM
May 2014 TAMSAT RFE Diff from
LTM
June dk 1 2014 E-modis
NDVI
June 2014
Climate Forecast
37th Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa (May 27-28, 2014)
Hagaa and Karan rains (Jun-Aug 2014)
Hagaa rains: Increased likelihood of average to slightly below average in the
coastal line and adjacent agropastoral areas of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle
regions
Karan rains: Normal to slightly below normal in the agropastoral areas and
West-Golis livelihoods of the Northwest regions
Short-rainy season (Oct-Dec 2014)
80 percent chances of El Niño occurrence in late 2014, leading to above average
rainfall over Eastern Horn of Africa, causing a wide range of river floods and
flash floods (Shabelle/Juba river basins; lowlands in agropastoral and pastoral
livelihood zones across Somalia.
June 2014
Market Prices
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices (SOSH/SLSH)
16,000
39,000
36,000
NE (Red Sorghum 1 kg)
14,000
Central(Red Sorghum 1 kg)
33,000
NW (White Sorghum 1 kg)
30,000
12,000
10,000
24,000
21,000
8,000
18,000
15,000
6,000
Price per Kg (SLSH)
Price per Kg (SoSH)
27,000
 Local cereal prices increased at
high rates across southern regions
in Jan-May 2014; they have
escalated drastically (51-102%) in
the Bakool, Shabelle and Hiran
regions
12,000
4,000
9,000
6,000
 Highest increases since a year ago
(May 2013) as well as compared to
5yr average are recorded in Bakool
(136% and 57% respectively)
2,000
Feb-14
May-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
Feb-13
May-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Nov-11
Feb-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
May-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
Feb-10
May-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
0
May-09
3,000
0
Month
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices (SOSH)
30,000
27,000
M Juba (White Maize 1 kg)
L Juba (White Maize 1 kg)
M Shabelle (White Maize 1 kg)
L Shabelle (White Maize 1 kg)
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices (SOSH)
30,000
Hiran (White Sorghum 1 kg)
27,000
Gedo(Red Sorghum 1 kg)
24,000
21,000
21,000
Price per Kg (SoSH)
24,000
18,000
15,000
12,000
Bay(Red Sorghum 1 kg)
Bakool(Red Sorghum 1 kg)
18,000
15,000
12,000
9,000
9,000
6,000
6,000
3,000
Month
Month
Feb-14
May-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
Feb-13
May-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Nov-11
Feb-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
May-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
Feb-10
May-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
0
0
May-09
3,000
May-09
Price per Kg (SoSH)
Banaadir (White Maize 1 kg)
June 2014
Consumer Price Index
 The CPI change in
southern Somalia: 12%
increase in Jan-May
2014; 27% increase
over the May 2013-May
2014 period
400
350
300
200
150
100
Month
CPI Central
CPI North(Sosh)
CPI North(SlSh)
CPI South
CPI somalia (SoShs)
May-14
Feb-14
Nov-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
May -11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug 10
May-10
-
Dec-09
50
May-09
CPI
250
 The highest annual
increases in the cost of
the Minimum
Expenditure Basket:
Bakool (72%), Hiran
(36%) and Middle
Shabelle (32%) mostly
driven by cereal price
increases (40% of the
basket cost)
Regional Trend in Terms of Trade : Labour
(Unskilled) Wage to Cereals (Jubas, Shabelles
Banadir)
Regional Trend in Terms of Trade Labour Wage
to Cereals (Bay, Bakool, Gedo Hiran)
Bay(Red Sorghum)
Bakool(Red Sorghum)
LJuba(White Maize)
LShabelle(White Maize)
May-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
May-12
NE(Red Sorghum)
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
ToT goat/ cereals: increased in
Jan-May; but fell from May 2013
levels
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Nov-11
•
0
Central (Red Sorghum)
NW (White Sorghum)
Jul-11
Significant annual declines:
Bakool (57%) and Hiran (41%)
5
Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Goat Local
Quality to Cereals
May-11
•
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jan-May 2014: ToT declined in
most regions of southern
Somalia; Lowest ToT in May 2014
is recorded in Bakool (4kg/ daily
wage)
Kg per Head
•
Jul-11
0
May-11
5
10
Jan-12
10
15
Nov-11
15
20
Jul-11
20
25
Sep-11
25
30
May-11
Kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate
30
Sep-11
MJuba(White Maize)
MShabelle(White Maize)
Banadir (White Maize)
Kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate
June 2014
Terms of Trade
June 2014
Early Warning
Late/ erratic Gu rains and conflicts that resulted in looming below average
cereal production and increased cereal prices are the major factors affecting
food security situation (both rural and urban livelihoods) in the post-Gu
2014; Limited humanitarian assistance as per current projection is unlikely
to mitigate the impact (source: Food Security Cluster).
If the El-Nino projection (80% chance) during the next short-rainy season is
materialised, further deterioration could be expected in the last quarter of
the year due to floods, particularly in riverine areas of southern Somalia
The worst affected areas in the post-Gu, which may lead to downgrading of the
IPC phase include: Bakool (agropastoral and urban); Southern Agropastoral
livelihood of Gedo and Middle Juba regions; Hiran (agropastoral, riverine
and urban); parts of Lower Shabelle region; Cowpea Belt of Central.
Current Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation is also likely to sustain in Middle Shabelle
and coastal areas of Central and Northeast.
Scaling-up of humanitarian assistance is required from now at least up to
December 2014.
June 2014
GHACOF 37 Climate Outlook and El Niño Update
By
Zachary K.K. Atheru
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)
June 2014
GHA Consensus Climate Outlook for the
June to August 2014 rainfall season
June 2014
Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
June 2014
ENSO prediction
The chance of E
Niño is 70%
during JJA and
reaches
80%
during
SOND
2014
(Courtesy of IRI/CP
June 2014
Thank you
June 2014
Situation and Response Analysis Framework:
A new approach to Contingency Planning
June 2014
CONTEXT
ECHO funded Capacity Building Grant
Food Security in Slow-onset Crises
Concern, Oxfam & Save the Children
Phase 2 (Oct. 2013-Dec 2014)
Focus Countries: Kenya,
Somalia, South Sudan,
Ethiopia, Yemen, Mali, Niger, Afghanistan,
Myanmar
June 2014
LIVELIHOODS & MARKETS
BASELINES
0: BASELINE
ANALYSIS
RAPID HEA
Forecast
DEVELOP DETAILED
SCENARIOS
PRE-CRISES
MARKET ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE
INTEGRATED
MARKET ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE
HEA DASHBOARD
(Outcome
Analysis)
Why do we need the
situation and response
analysis?
Operational
1: RESPONSE
ANALYSIS
(CONTINGENCY
PLANNING)
MAP LIVELIHOODS
CALENDAR
DETERMINE STRATEGIC
OBJECTIVES
SELECT APPROPRIATE
INTERVENTIONS
DECISION
TREES/DECISIONMAKING TOOL
IDENTIFY AGENCY
PRIORITIES & PARTNERS
MARKET RESPONSE
ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
(linked to/included in
Decision Making Tool)
CEP/ CTP TRAINING
AND RESOURCES
Strategic
MAP START-UP
TIMELINES & PREPARE
COMMUNICATE to
Communities & Partners
2: SITUATION
ANALYSIS
(SEASONAL
LIVELIHOOD
ANALYSIS)
CONTINGENCY PLAN
HEA KEY
PARAMETERS
MARKET KEY
PARAMETERS
HEA
OUTCOME
ANALYSIS
SITUATION VERIFICATION
REFINE SCENARIOS
UPDATED
CONTINGENCY PLAN
RESPONSE PLAN
FEED INTO IPC TECH
WORKING GROUP/
CLUSTERS
June 2014
Contingency Planning Key Findings
Lack of predictive livelihood analysis = unclear what response
options/budget needed;
Contingency plans did not give a clear idea of what point they should
be implemented;
Actions proposed generally were not seen to be part of a wider
strategy for response;
Contingency planning often a heavy process leading to a ‘dead’
document in a drawer.
June 2014
Response Analysis Tools
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
Emergency Market Mapping & Analysis (EMMA)
WFP Market Analysis Framework (MAF)
FEWSNET Structure – Conduct – Performance Tool
LEGS: Participatory Response Identification Matrix (PRIM)
Seed Security Systems Assessment (SSSA)
WHO Decision Chart (Selective Feeding)
WFP Decision Tree (Nutrition Interventions / Food Products)
FAQR Decision Tree (In Improving the Quality of US Food Aid)
Market Information for Food Insecurity Response Analysis (MIFIRA)
ODI Good Practice Review Cash Transfer Programming in Emergencies
ECHO Decision Tree for Response Option
Save the Children Risk Assessment Tool
ACT Food Security & Livelihoods Assessment Guidelines
ICRC Global FSA Guidelines
ICRC Guideline for Cash Transfer Programs
ACF Implementing Cash Program
CARE Benefits / Harm Analysis Tool
Do No Harm
Prevention Corruption in Humanitarian Operations
FAO Response Analysis Framework (RAF)
WFP Response Analysis Project (RAP)
Oxfam Response Analysis Guide
IPC Response Analysis Tool
June 2014
Response Analysis Key Findings
Little Formal Response Analysis takes place
Where it does happen it is focused on secondary Level, Operational
Response Analysis
Agency Mandate & Perceptions of Donor Preferences are key
determinants of response choice – but seldom make explicit
June 2014
Conclusions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Improving causal / problem analysis is essential for good Response
Analysis
Response Analysis should be part of contingency planning &
emergency preparedness
Contingency planning should be an ongoing ‘living’ process not a
single step
How the work of an agency fits into the larger picture is critical
How contingency plans relate to decision-makers and timing of
decisions is crucial.
June 2014
June 2014
Approach
THREE STAGES:
1.
2.
3.
BASELINE ANALYSIS
CONTINGENCY PLANNING
CONTEXT MONITORING
Understanding the way populations live is critical to understanding the
impact of shocks
Understanding livelihoods and markets is seen as minimum (other
baseline info can be added)
June 2014
BASELINE ANALYSIS
UNDERSTANDING THE SITUATION
1. LIVELIHOOD BASELINE: HEA
1.
2.
3.
4.
Standard approach in many Agencies &
Countries
Quantifies Household Food, Income &
Expenditure
Compares to Survival & Livelihoods
Protection Threshold
Enables Modeling of Seasonal Changes
-
Rapid HEA
2. MARKET BASELINE:
MIFIRA/EMMA
- Minimum Guidance for Market
Baselines
June 2014
Approach
THREE STAGES:
1.
2.
3.
BASELINE ANALYSIS
CONTINGENCY PLANNING
CONTEXT MONITORING
Focus on Preparedness: Contingency Planning using Forecasts
Envisaged to happen every season through district/County level 2
day workshop
June 2014
RESPONSE ANALYSIS
CONTINGENCY PLANNING
A. Develop Detailed Scenarios – e.g. HEA
Outcome/scenario analysis
B. Map Livelihood & Scenario Calendars –
C.
D.
e.g.
predicted rains and impact on pastoral and agro-pastoral
livelihoods.
Determine Strategic Objectives – comprehensive
e.g. immediate food/nutrition needs, livelihoods support,
WASH,etc.
Select Appropriate Interventions – appropriate eg
food assistance, cash transfer, etc.
E. Identify Agency Priorities & Partnerships –
F.
G.
based on agency capacity and experience, priorities of partners,
etc.
Map Start-up Timelines & Decision Points – to
ensure timely/early response, decision based on forecasts.
Communicate - internally & externally
June 2014
Forecast
June 2014
Approach
THREE STAGES:
1.
2.
3.
BASELINE ANALYSIS
CONTINGENCY PLANNING
CONTEXT MONITORING
Additional timely info is vital to support decision makers at decision
making points
Ongoing context monitoring and specific assessments for verification
are recommended
June 2014
Monitoring & Refinement
SEASONAL LIVELIHOOD ANALYSIS
1. Ongoing Monitoring: HEA Key Parameters,
Market Information, Seasonal Calendar
2. Situation Assessments: Verification
REFINE SCENARIOS
UPDATE CONTINGENCY PLAN ACTIONS
“FEED” RESULTS INTO IPC TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP
June 2014
LIVELIHOODS & MARKETS
BASELINES
0: BASELINE
ANALYSIS
RAPID HEA
Forecast
DEVELOP DETAILED
SCENARIOS
Operational
1: RESPONSE
ANALYSIS
(CONTINGENCY
PLANNING)
PRE-CRISES
MARKET ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE
INTEGRATED
MARKET ANALYSIS
GUIDANCE
HEA DASHBOARD
(Outcome
Analysis)
MAP LIVELIHOODS
CALENDAR
DETERMINE STRATEGIC
OBJECTIVES
SELECT APPROPRIATE
INTERVENTIONS
DECISION
TREES/DECISIONMAKING TOOL
IDENTIFY AGENCY
PRIORITIES & PARTNERS
MARKET RESPONSE
ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
(linked to/included in
Decision Making Tool)
CEP/ CTP TRAINING
AND RESOURCES
Strategic
MAP START-UP
TIMELINES & PREPARE
COMMUNICATE to
Communities & Partners
2: SITUATION
ANALYSIS
(SEASONAL
LIVELIHOOD
ANALYSIS)
CONTINGENCY PLAN
HEA KEY
PARAMETERS
MARKET KEY
PARAMETERS
HEA
OUTCOME
ANALYSIS
SITUATION VERIFICATION
REFINE SCENARIOS
UPDATED
CONTINGENCY PLAN
RESPONSE PLAN
FEED INTO IPC TECH
WORKING GROUP/
CLUSTERS
SHOCK
June 2014
June 2014
SHOCK
RESPONSE
ANALYSIS
LIVELIHOODS RESPONSE
SEASON 5
SEASON 4
SEASON 3
RESPONSE
ANALYSIS
SHOCK
SHOCK
SHOCK
SEASON 2
SEASON 1
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
RESPONSE
ANALYSIS
LIVELIHOODS RESPONSE
RESPONSE
ANALYSIS
FOOD SECURITY &
LIVELIHOODS RESPONSE
LONGER-TERM DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMING & PROJECT MONITORING
CONTEXT MONITORING - - - CONTEXT MONITORING - - - CONTEXT MONITORING - - - CONTEXT MONITORING - - - CONTEXT MONITORING
CONTEXT MONITORING - - - CONTEXT MONITORING - - - CONTEXT MONITORING - - - CONTEXT MONITORING - - - CONTEXT MONITORING
June 2014
So what is different? Some key
messages
Effective and relevant contingency plans rely on good quality
baseline information, including livelihoods and markets data,
as part of a response analysis process;
Contingency plans that recognise and prepare for agency start-up
times support the delivery of timely response activities;
Response analysis allows for the generation of early ‘no regret’
activities, that could protect livelihoods early in crisis
evolution;
Individual agency contingency plans should form part of an
overall multi-agency response strategy, which is based on
identified needs rather than on individual agency mandate;
To remain reflective, accurate and useful, contingency planning
refinement is an ongoing and iterative process.