Transcript ATTICA first Author Meeting
Climate impacts of international aviation and maritime transport Preliminary results of the EU Integrated Project QUANTIFY and the Specific Support Action ATTICA
Robert Sausen DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen Side Event on bunker fuels 11 May 2007, Bonn, DE
QUANTIFY Quantifying the Climate Impact of global and European Transport Systems
Objective: Co-ordinator: Participants: Duration: Funds: Total costs To quantify the climate impact of the global and European transport systems for the present situation and for different scenarios of future development.
Sausen, DLR-IPA 41 from 19 countries March 2005 to February 2010 8.4 M € 12.8 M € http://ip-quantify.eu/
How can transport emissions impact climate ?
Change of the radiative forcing by the emission of greenhouse gases, including long-lived species like CO 2 and N 2 O, but also of water vapour; the emission ozone precursors; the emission of particles and their precursors; triggering additional clouds (e.g., contrails, contrail cirrus) and by modifying natural clouds (e.g., ship tracks).
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Emissions from different modes of transport in 2000
13.8 % 2.2 % 2.7 % Contribution of transport to the total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions UNFCCC Bonn 2007
Aviation transport volume
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Fischer et al., 2007
Does EU-15 comply with the Kyoto Protocol ?
Equivalent CO 2 emissions relative to 1990
Kyoto target (2012) EU-15 -8.0% UNFCCC Bonn 2007
Absolute equivalent CO 2 emissions since 1990
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Aviation and shipping emissions grow fast but still are only a minor fraction of the total emissions
Equivalent CO 2 emissions relative to 1990 Absolute equivalent CO 2 emissions since 1990 UNFCCC Bonn 2007
Updated Aviation Radiative Forcing for 2000
D
T
surf =
l
· RF
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Shipping Radiative Forcing for 2000
100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 CO2 shipping 43,2 O3 28,3 CH4 -10,9 SO4 (direct) -22,2 BC (direct) 2,5 indirect SO4 -189 total -148,1 UNFCCC Bonn 2007
Updated Aviation Radiative Forcing for 2000 Questions:
Is RF the optimal variable to compare the future impact resulting from various aviation-induced contributions to climate change ?
Is this a proper way to include the non-CO 2 effects of aviation in emission trading (key word RFI) ?
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Emissions and radiative forcing
A1
RF
(
t
=2000): Result of all past emissions UNFCCC Bonn 2007 Measure of future climate change only if RF constant..
What knowledge is necessary in order to evaluate the climate impact of transport ?
What did transport contribute to climate change until now?
Understanding the climate system What is the contribution of the transport of 2000 (or any other year) to climate change ? Tool for regulating emissions What is the impact of mitigation options ?
Scenario simulations UNFCCC Bonn 2007
Emissions and radiative forcing
marginal radiative forcing D
RF
(
t
=2000): radiative forcing due to emissions of year 2000 UNFCCC Bonn 2007
Metrics for evaluating impact on climate
radiative forcing
RF
(
t
=2000) marginal radiative forcing D
RF
(
t
) "pulse" and "sustained" integrated (marginal) radiative forcing "pulse" and "sustained"
t
D 2000
RF
(
s
) d
s
temperature change D
T
(
t
) "pulse" and "sustained" UNFCCC Bonn 2007
Pulse_2000: Integrated radiative forcing
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Pulse_2000: Temperature change
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Pulse_2000: Normalised ( CO 2 ) temperature change
Index = 2.3
1.5
1.2
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Final remarks
CO 2 (and other "Kyoto" gases) can easily be included in an emission trading scheme.
Large uncertainty exists with respect to the climate impact of non-CO 2 emissions from aviation and shipping.
In general, radiative forcing at a certain time is no good measure for the expected climate change. Therefore, the RFI is not suitable for emission trading.
Multiplying CO 2 emissions by any simple multiplication factor would weaken incentives to reduce the total climate impact beyond a reduction of the fuel consumption.
Eventually, it might become possible to include non-CO 2 individual contributions to climate change.
effects by their Often emissions have further effects beyond climate change, e.g., impact on air quality.
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ATTICA: European Assessment of Transport Impacts on Climate Change and Ozone Depletion
http://www.ssa-attica.eu
Start: 1 June 2006 End: 30 November 2009 UNFCCC Bonn 2007