Transcript Diapositiva 1

A Worldwide Overview: AMIS Experience
Roma 19/12/2012
Abdolreza Abbassian
AMIS Secretary
Presentation Outline
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Towards AMIS
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AMIS Objectives and Structure
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AMIS One Year On
Food Prices
Are prices stabilising at high levels?
US$/MT, fob
450
400
2009/10
•Floods in Pakistan
•Rains in Canada and USA
•Rains and Floods in Australia
2012/13
•US Drought and Maize production
shortfalls
•Wheat production Shortfalls in CIS
•Continued Macroeconomic
Problems
Announcement
by Russia of lifting
the ban from July
USDA maize yield
projections
350
Russian Droughts
Russian Export Ban
300
250
200
USDA March 2011
planting/stocks
forecasts
2011/12
•Macroeconomic Concerns
•EURO Crisis
•CIS Production Recovery
•Higher US Maize Production and
Stocks
•Strong US$
USDA October 2010
maize output cuts
2010/11
•Political Tensions
•Oil price surge
•Declining US$
• Uncertain wheat growing conditions
in US & China
150
100
Jul-10
USDA maize
planted
acreage
estimates
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Wheat
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Maize
Oct-12
Dec-12
“Feeling” Volatility
USD per tonne
340
290
Daily Quotations of selected export prices
240
Wheat Futures Price (CME)
Maize Futures Price (CME)
190
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Towards AMIS
• The Food Price Surge and Crisis of 2007/08
International prices peak in June 2008 - up 80 percent in two years!
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World Food Summit (November 2009)
Renewed commitment to eradicate hunger
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Extraordinary Meeting of FAO Intergovernmental Groups on Grains and Rice
(September 2010) – In response to fears over a repeat of the 2007/08 crisis in 2010/11 following the severe
drought and export restrictions by the Russian Federation
Recognized
a) The lack of reliable and up-to-date information on crop supply and demand and export availability
b) Insufficient market transparency at all levels including in relation to futures markets
c) Growing linkage with outside markets, in particular the impact of “financialization” on futures markets
d) Unexpected changes triggered by national food security situations
e) Panic buying and hoarding
Recommended
a) analyses of alternative approaches to mitigating food price volatility, with a view to support policy
decision-making
b) new mechanisms to enhance transparency and manage the risks associated with new sources of market
volatility
c) exploring ways of strengthening FAO’s partnerships with other relevant Organizations working on these
issues
… Towards AMIS
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G20 Seoul Summit (November 2010)
The Seoul Consensus identified nine key pillars in its Multi-Year Action Plans for Development, among
them food security. In this regard, it invited relevant international organizations to develop, for 2011
Summit in France, proposals to better manage and mitigate risks of food price volatility without distorting
market behavior. The consortium of several international organizations (FAO, IFAD, IFPRI, IMF, OECD,
UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank, WTO, and the UN HTLF) prepared a report on Price Volatility in Food
and Agricultural Markets. The Report included a list of ten recommendations, of which one called for the
establishment of an Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) in order to enhance the quality,
timeliness and reliability of food market outlook information.
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A Scoping Report for G20: Improving Food Market Transparency and policy Response for Food
Security: AMIS (May 2011):
This report by FAO, IFAD, IFPRI, OECD, UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank, WTO, and the UN HLTF proposed
to establish AMIS. The scoping report reviewed the existing global food market outlook information
mechanisms, identified problems and gaps, and determined the scope, structure and operations of AMIS.
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G20 Agriculture Ministers Meeting (June 2011)
The Ministerial meeting adopted the Action Plan on Food Price Volatility and Agriculture. The Action Plan
focused on five main pillars: i) improving agricultural production and productivity; ii) increasing market
information and transparency; iii) strengthening international policy coordination; iv) reducing the effects of
price volatility for the most vulnerable; and v) improving the functioning of agricultural commodity derivatives’
markets.
… Towards AMIS
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Launch of AMIS and Global Agricultural Geo-monitoring Initiative to increase market
information and transparency (September 2011):
The "Agricultural Market Information System" (AMIS) in Rome on September 15-16, 2011, to
improve information on markets. It will enhance the quality, reliability, accuracy, timeliness and
comparability of food market outlook information.
The "Global Agricultural Geo-monitoring Initiative" in Geneva on September 22-23, 2011, to
coordinate satellite monitoring observation systems in different regions of the world in order to
enhance crop production projections and weather forecasting data.
The G20 Cannes Summit (November 2011)
Endorses the Action Plan
Objectives
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Improve agricultural market information, analyses and forecasts at both national
and international levels
Report on abnormal international market conditions including structural
weaknesses, as appropriate
Strengthen global early warning capacity
Collect and analyse policy information, promote dialogue and international policy
coordination
Build data collection capacity in participating countries
Structure
Building on existing mechanisms and institutions
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AMIS Participants and Coverage: Participants include the G20, Spain and, at least, seven nonG20 countries who are invited to join. The seven countries have been selected on the basis of
their significant share in global production and trade for the four (initially) commodities covered by
AMIS: Wheat, Rice, Maize and Soybean. The seven countries are: Egypt, Kazakhstan, Nigeria,
the Philippines, Thailand, Ukraine, and Vietnam.
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AMIS Secretariat: It is formed by FAO, IFAD, IFPRI, IGC, WFP, OECD, World Bank, WTO,
UNCTAD, and the UN-HLTF. It is responsible for producing market outlooks, assessments and
analyses, and for supporting all functions of the Forum and the Information Group. It is housed in
FAO’s Trade and Markets Division.
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The Information Group: It consists of technical representatives (Focal Points) from participant
countries. Focal Points provides national market and policy information to the Secretariat. It meets
twice a year.
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The Rapid Response Forum: It is composed of Senior Officials from participant countries. It aim
to foster early discussion among decision-level officials about abnormal international market
conditions to encourage coordination of policies. It meets as needed, but in principle not less than
once a year.
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AMIS Chair: Presides over meetings of the Forum and the Information Group. Elected for one
year from the participating countries.
AMIS One Year On
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Launch of AMIS website
Implementation of AMIS statistical tool and database
Identification of market and policy Indicators
Definition of capacity building projects
Release of regular market monitors
www.amis-outlook.org
Statistics
Commodity Balances
An integrated, open-source platform to strengthen
collection analysis and dissemination of food
market-related data
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Handles and harmonizes multiple data sources
(national and international)
Enables data comparison
Helps to enter and calculate commodity balance
data
Facilitates data download
Includes tools to link national and international
databases through the Internet
Main Events 2011/12
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September 2011 Inception meeting in Rome
December 2011 expert meeting on indicators in Rome
February 2012 Information Group meeting in Rome
May 2012 Secretariat meeting on indicators in Paris
April 2012 Rapid Response Forum meeting in Mexico City
October 2012 Steering Committee and Information Group meetings in Rome
Market Assessments and Consultations
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Challenging first year, particularly between June and October 2012
Intensive consultations and launching of first market assessment reports
Fears over food crisis raised expectations from AMIS
CONTACT INFORMATION
[email protected]
Tel: +39-06-57052057
Fax: +39-06-57054495
www.amis-outlook.org