Transcript www.fahr.gov.ae

Strategic Workforce Planning
Dr. Christopher Daniel
Principal, Dubai
March, 2012
Draft – For discussion only
Only 15% of companies plan their work force needs more
than three years into the future
Time horizon
for work force
planning
1
5 years
1
1
4 years
1
2
17
3 years
1
1
7
1
6
2
15%
38%
3
2 years
1 year
Source: BCG/EAPM
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
13
7
5
18
1
2
3
6
1
1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years
and more
Time horizon for
strategic planning
47%
Percentage of
respondents
1
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 years
and more
Draft – For discussion only
Companies often ignore mismatch between capabilities
available on the labor market and demanded by employers
Higher Education Specialization Supply versus
Labor Market Demand in UAE
Student enrolment by discipline (2005) (%)
30
Surplus of supply
Social sciences and humanities
Administration
10
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Business
20
1
Education
Law
Engineering
ICT
Deficit of supply
Medicine
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Employment by specialization (2005) (%)
1. Administration includes among others public administration and affairs, translation, general secretariat, etc
Source: BCG Analysis
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
2
Draft – For discussion only
Strategic workforce planning: typical weaknesses at many
companies
1 Workforce planning only has a very short-term orientation
2 Pure capacity planning without differentiation by qualification or job families
3 Often no workforce demand planning with link to company strategy
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 Recruiting and training goals often not systematically deducted from company strategy
5 Qualification programs often not systematically deducted from company strategy
6 Internal transfer potential from surplus to shortfall often not used
7 Capacity reduction often with "lawnmower" method
8 Demographic challenges often not systematically addressed
9 Integration of HR department into strategic discussions often not happening
Source: BCG
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
3
Draft – For discussion only
Overview
BCG's Strategic Workforce and Cost Planning Approach
Very well proven approach
Simulate workforce supply per skill cluster
Future supply
Current workforce
I
Define Skill
Clusters
Planning level
Headcount
Assumptions, e.g.,
• Attrition
• Retirement
• Phased retirement
• ...
Development scenarios
3
4
2010
2020
Gap/risk
analysis
5
Develop HR
measures
Measures
Cost
analysis
Simulate workforce demand per skill
cluster
Future demand
Workforce demand logic
Assumptions, e.g.,
• Asset strategy
• Technological changes
• Productivities
• ...
Strategic scenarios
Annual workforce supply and demand process set up
2010
2020
Detailed time plan for training and enablement
Workforce planning to be integrated into regular business planning cycle
Overview of available tools and outputs
Beg Jan
6
Identify gaps
and costs
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
2
Establish annual
process
Mid Jan
1
May
24.
2
Activity
Workforce supply
Process definition
• Definition of process steps and deadlines
• Allocation of responsibilities
(SWCP core group, central HR, HR bus. partners, BUs)
• Specification of names
• Agreement on process + names by MEs and central HR
Tool training
• Selection of people from training department
• General tool logic
• Supply tool training
• Demand + Gap tool training
• Measure tool training
• Handover of tools to training responsible
Intranet platform
• Collection + publication of FAQs
• Decide on responsible for internet platform set up
• Set up of specific SWCP intranet section
• Publication of HR SWCP core group members
• Description of process and responsibilities
• Development + publication of tool handbooks
Driver and
demand
planning
Input into
yearly HR
plan
End Jan
Yearly SWCP
planning
cycle
6
End Feb
3
GapAnalysis
Specify
measures
5
Derive
measures
4
Beg Feb
Mid Feb
Business ownership
Group HR ownership
Start date
24 25 26 27 28 31 1
Supply tool
Jun
31.
2
07.
3
4
7
8
14.
Demand and gap tool
Measure tool
21.
9 10 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 25
Suppl ysimul at ion
The Bost on Consul t ing Gr oup
SupplyTool Controlcenter
Hint: Use the
buttons to
navigate easily
1
Demand and gap Tool
1
Retirement
Please check the properties first
Measure Tool
Driver Case 1
Driver Case 3
Driver Case 2
Driver Case 4
Edit the FTE list
3
Then generate the parameter sheets
Recruiting
4
Fill in the parameter sheets
Productivity (Age)
5
Start the simulation
Partial retirement
1
Basic Configuration
Basic Configuration
2
2
Driver Definition
5
Scenario Drivers
Fluctuation
2
Import Supply
Global Productivity
3
Define Activities
Driver Productivity
3
Productivity
Profile Definition
Profile Assignment
4
Profiles
5
Derived model
4
Calculate
Driver Definition
Profile Definition
Costs
6
Simulate
7
View Gap
Profile Assignment
Tool logic (all BUs)
Tool logic (all BUs)
Supply I (all BUs)
Supply II (all BUs)
Demand + Gap tool (all BUs)
Measure tool
Measure tool
7
View Gap
© The Boston Consulting Group
© The Boston Consulting Group
© The Boston Consulting Group 2010
Demand + Gap tool
(specific BUs)
-53%
FTE
Age groups
3,933
17-29
3,670
30-39
3,428
3,201
13%
40-49
2,991
50-54
2,793
55-65
2,608
32%
2,433
2,258
2,094
1,941 1,803
0%
8%
32%
36%
21%
Project team jour fixe
60%
19%
13%
39%
6%
Intranet platform, training curriculum and HR peer group
set up to support annual process
-263
-242
2010
-227
-210
2012
-198
-185
2014
-176
-175
2016
-164
-153
2018
-138
Job Function
Business Support Others
Specialist DC Power
Technical Officer DC Power
Management & Leadership
Specialist Legacy Platform Field
Specialist Legacy Transport Field
Specialist NGN Field
Specialist Other Field
Technical Officer Legacy Platform Field
Technical Officer Legacy Transport Field
Technical Officer NGN Field
Technical Officer OP2 Field
Technical Officer Other Field
Technical Officer Wall-2-Wall Field
Business Support Others
Dispatcher
Specialist DC Power
Management & Leadership
Specialist Legacy Platform Central
Specialist Legacy Transport Central
Specialist NGN Central
First Level Surveillance
Activity Management
Technical Officer Legacy Platform Central
Technical Officer Legacy Transport Central
Technical Officer NGN Central
Business Support Others
Management & Leadership
Specialist Quality & Perf. Analysis
Specialist Legacy Platform Network Performance
Specialist Legacy Transport Network Performance
Specialist NGN Network Performance
System administrator OSS
Activity Management
Technical Officer Quality & Perf. Analysis
Technical Officer Legacy Platform Network Performance
Technical Officer Legacy Transport Network Performance
Technical Officer NGN Network Performance
Business Support Others
High Level Technical Support NGN Expert
High Level Technical Support NGN Specialist
High Level Technical Support Legacy Platform Expert
High Level Technical Support Legacy Platform Specialist
High Level Technical Support Legacy Transport Expert
High Level Technical Support Legacy Transport Specialist
High Level Technical Support Service Expert
High Level Technical Support Service Specialist
Management & Leadership
Support Others
2009
81
13
43
198
56
49
86
26
210
215
96
331
65
665
5
69
6
18
30
60
24
30
72
27
82
11
2
14
15
14
8
53
37
21
7
8
7
14
5
53
26
7
10
14
5
15
7
18
7
2010
2011
1
0
1
5
1
1
-2
-1
1
-1
-3
2
-3
-3
0
-4
0
0
0
-1
-3
-1
-4
-1
-3
-2
0
-2
-1
0
0
-2
-2
-2
0
0
0
0
0
-4
-3
0
0
-1
0
-1
0
-1
0
2012
1
0
0
6
0
1
-4
-3
-1
-6
-7
5
-5
-16
0
-7
0
0
-1
-2
-5
-2
-7
-2
-5
-3
0
-2
-1
0
0
-5
-4
-3
-1
0
0
-1
0
-7
-6
0
0
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
2013
0
0
-1
6
0
0
-8
-4
-4
-10
-12
8
-7
-32
0
-11
0
0
-1
-2
-9
-3
-11
-2
-6
-5
0
-2
-2
0
0
-8
-6
-4
-1
0
0
-2
-1
-11
-9
0
0
-2
0
-2
-1
-2
-1
2
0
-1
9
0
0
-3
-5
-5
-12
-10
10
-9
-30
0
-11
0
0
-1
-2
-8
-4
-11
-3
-7
-4
0
-1
-2
-1
0
-8
-1
-4
-1
-1
-1
-2
-1
-11
-8
0
-1
-2
0
-2
-1
-2
-1
2014
3
0
0
9
1
0
3
-6
-5
-12
-7
14
-11
-26
0
-10
0
1
-1
-2
-7
-77
-10
17
49
6
0
-1
-2
-1
0
-7
1
-5
-1
-1
-1
-2
0
-11
-7
0
-1
-3
0
-3
-2
-1
-1
2015
2016
1
0
-1
5
0
-1
4
-7
-8
-14
-6
15
-13
-31
0
-10
0
2
-1
-2
-5
-59
1
15
46
5
0
0
1
-1
0
-7
-1
-6
0
-1
-1
-2
0
-10
-6
0
-1
-3
0
-3
-2
-1
-1
1
0
-2
-1
-1
-1
4
-8
-11
-16
-5
18
-14
-35
1
-9
0
2
-2
-2
-4
-50
5
14
42
5
0
-1
2
-1
0
-6
-2
-6
0
-1
-1
-2
0
-10
-5
0
-1
-3
0
-3
-2
-1
-1
2017
-1
0
-2
-8
-2
-2
1
-8
-15
-19
-7
18
-16
-45
0
-9
0
2
-2
-3
-5
-48
4
13
40
5
0
-1
1
-1
0
-7
-2
-7
0
-1
-1
-3
0
-11
-6
0
-1
-3
0
-4
-2
-1
-1
2018
-2
-1
-3
-14
-3
-3
0
-8
-19
-21
-9
18
-17
-53
0
-9
0
0
-3
-2
-5
-47
3
12
37
4
0
-1
1
-2
-1
-7
-3
-7
0
-1
-1
-3
0
-13
-7
-1
-1
-4
0
-4
-3
-1
-1
2019
2020
-4
-1
-3
-18
-5
-4
-1
-9
-20
-23
-11
19
-18
-61
0
-9
-1
0
-3
-2
-6
-45
2
11
35
4
0
-1
0
-2
-1
-8
-4
-7
0
-1
-1
-3
0
-14
-7
-1
-1
-4
0
-4
-3
-1
-1
-5
-1
-4
-22
-5
-5
-3
-9
-24
-23
-13
18
-20
-71
0
-9
-1
0
-4
-2
-7
-44
1
10
33
4
0
-1
-1
-2
-1
-9
-5
-8
0
-1
-1
-3
0
-15
-8
-1
-1
-4
0
-4
-3
-1
-2
Job Function
Business Support Others
Specialist DC Power
Technical Officer DC Power
Management & Leadership
Specialist Legacy Platform Field
Specialist Legacy Transport Field
Specialist NGN Field
Specialist Other Field
Technical Officer Legacy Platform Field
Technical Officer Legacy Transport Field
Technical Officer NGN Field
Technical Officer OP2 Field
Technical Officer Other Field
Technical Officer Wall-2-Wall Field
Business Support Others
Dispatcher
Specialist DC Power
Management & Leadership
Specialist Legacy Platform Central
Specialist Legacy Transport Central
Specialist NGN Central
First Level Surveillance
Activity Management
Technical Officer Legacy Platform Central
Technical Officer Legacy Transport Central
Technical Officer NGN Central
Business Support Others
Management & Leadership
Specialist Quality & Perf. Analysis
Specialist Legacy Platform Network Performance
Specialist Legacy Transport Network Performance
Specialist NGN Network Performance
System administrator OSS
Activity Management
Technical Officer Quality & Perf. Analysis
Technical Officer Legacy Platform Network Performance
Technical Officer Legacy Transport Network Performance
Technical Officer NGN Network Performance
Business Support Others
High Level Technical Support NGN Expert
High Level Technical Support NGN Specialist
High Level Technical Support Legacy Platform Expert
High Level Technical Support Legacy Platform Specialist
High Level Technical Support Legacy Transport Expert
High Level Technical Support Legacy Transport Specialist
High Level Technical Support Service Expert
High Level Technical Support Service Specialist
Management & Leadership
Support Others
2009
81
13
43
198
56
49
86
26
210
215
96
331
65
665
5
69
6
18
30
60
24
30
72
27
82
11
2
14
15
14
8
53
37
21
7
8
7
14
5
53
26
7
10
14
5
15
7
18
7
2010
2011
1
0
1
5
1
1
-2
-1
1
-1
-3
2
-3
-3
0
-4
0
0
0
-1
-3
-1
-4
-1
-3
-2
0
-2
-1
0
0
-2
-2
-2
0
0
0
0
0
-4
-3
0
0
-1
0
-1
0
-1
0
1
0
0
6
0
1
-4
-3
-1
-6
-7
5
-5
-16
0
-7
0
0
-1
-2
-5
-2
-7
-2
-5
-3
0
-2
-1
0
0
-5
-4
-3
-1
0
0
-1
0
-7
-6
0
0
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
2012
0
0
-1
6
0
0
-8
-4
-4
-10
-12
8
-7
-32
0
-11
0
0
-1
-2
-9
-3
-11
-2
-6
-5
0
-2
-2
0
0
-8
-6
-4
-1
0
0
-2
-1
-11
-9
0
0
-2
0
-2
-1
-2
-1
2013
2014
2
0
-1
9
0
0
-3
-5
-5
-12
-10
10
-9
-30
0
-11
0
0
-1
-2
-8
-4
-11
-3
-7
-4
0
-1
-2
-1
0
-8
-1
-4
-1
-1
-1
-2
-1
-11
-8
0
-1
-2
0
-2
-1
-2
-1
3
0
0
9
1
0
3
-6
-5
-12
-7
14
-11
-26
0
-10
0
1
-1
-2
-7
-77
-10
17
49
6
0
-1
-2
-1
0
-7
1
-5
-1
-1
-1
-2
0
-11
-7
0
-1
-3
0
-3
-2
-1
-1
2015
1
0
-1
5
0
-1
4
-7
-8
-14
-6
15
-13
-31
0
-10
0
2
-1
-2
-5
-59
1
15
46
5
0
0
1
-1
0
-7
-1
-6
0
-1
-1
-2
0
-10
-6
0
-1
-3
0
-3
-2
-1
-1
2016
1
0
-2
-1
-1
-1
4
-8
-11
-16
-5
18
-14
-35
1
-9
0
2
-2
-2
-4
-50
5
14
42
5
0
-1
2
-1
0
-6
-2
-6
0
-1
-1
-2
0
-10
-5
0
-1
-3
0
-3
-2
-1
-1
2017
-1
0
-2
-8
-2
-2
1
-8
-15
-19
-7
18
-16
-45
0
-9
0
2
-2
-3
-5
-48
4
13
40
5
0
-1
1
-1
0
-7
-2
-7
0
-1
-1
-3
0
-11
-6
0
-1
-3
0
-4
-2
-1
-1
2018
-2
-1
-3
-14
-3
-3
0
-8
-19
-21
-9
18
-17
-53
0
-9
0
0
-3
-2
-5
-47
3
12
37
4
0
-1
1
-2
-1
-7
-3
-7
0
-1
-1
-3
0
-13
-7
-1
-1
-4
0
-4
-3
-1
-1
2019
-4
-1
-3
-18
-5
-4
-1
-9
-20
-23
-11
19
-18
-61
0
-9
-1
0
-3
-2
-6
-45
2
11
35
4
0
-1
0
-2
-1
-8
-4
-7
0
-1
-1
-3
0
-14
-7
-1
-1
-4
0
-4
-3
-1
-1
2020
Job Function
Business Support Others
Specialist DC Power
Technical Officer DC Power
Management & Leadership
Specialist Legacy Platform Field
Specialist Legacy Transport Field
Specialist NGN Field
Specialist Other Field
Technical Officer Legacy Platform Field
Technical Officer Legacy Transport Field
Technical Officer NGN Field
Technical Officer OP2 Field
Technical Officer Other Field
Technical Officer Wall-2-Wall Field
Business Support Others
Dispatcher
Specialist DC Power
Management & Leadership
Specialist Legacy Platform Central
Specialist Legacy Transport Central
Specialist NGN Central
First Level Surveillance
Activity Management
Technical Officer Legacy Platform Central
Technical Officer Legacy Transport Central
Technical Officer NGN Central
Business Support Others
Management & Leadership
Specialist Quality & Perf. Analysis
Specialist Legacy Platform Network Performance
Specialist Legacy Transport Network Performance
Specialist NGN Network Performance
System administrator OSS
Activity Management
Technical Officer Quality & Perf. Analysis
Technical Officer Legacy Platform Network Performance
Technical Officer Legacy Transport Network Performance
Technical Officer NGN Network Performance
Business Support Others
High Level Technical Support NGN Expert
High Level Technical Support NGN Specialist
High Level Technical Support Legacy Platform Expert
High Level Technical Support Legacy Platform Specialist
High Level Technical Support Legacy Transport Expert
High Level Technical Support Legacy Transport Specialist
High Level Technical Support Service Expert
High Level Technical Support Service Specialist
Management & Leadership
Support Others
-5
-1
-4
-22
-5
-5
-3
-9
-24
-23
-13
18
-20
-71
0
-9
-1
0
-4
-2
-7
-44
1
10
33
4
0
-1
-1
-2
-1
-9
-5
-8
0
-1
-1
-3
0
-15
-8
-1
-1
-4
0
-4
-3
-1
-2
2009
2.010
81
13
43
198
56
49
86
26
210
215
96
331
65
665
5
69
6
18
30
60
24
30
72
27
82
11
2
14
15
14
8
53
37
21
7
8
7
14
5
53
26
7
10
14
5
15
7
18
7
2.011
1
0
1
5
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2.012
1
0
0
6
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2.013
0
0
0
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
8
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
9
0
0
5
1
1
1
3
10
1
3
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
5
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
2.014
2.015
3
0
1
9
1
0
11
1
1
1
6
14
1
7
0
2
0
1
0
0
3
0
2
20
57
11
0
1
0
0
0
2
7
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
5
0
0
12
1
1
2
7
15
1
5
0
2
0
2
1
0
5
18
13
18
54
10
0
2
3
0
0
2
5
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
2.016
2.017
1
0
0
0
0
0
12
1
1
2
8
18
2
6
1
3
0
2
0
0
6
27
17
17
50
10
0
1
4
0
0
3
4
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
4
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
1
1
3
6
18
2
8
0
3
0
2
0
0
5
29
16
16
48
10
0
1
3
1
0
2
4
1
1
0
0
0
1
3
3
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
2.018
0
0
0
0
1
0
8
2
2
3
4
18
3
9
0
3
0
0
0
1
5
30
15
15
45
9
0
1
3
0
0
3
3
2
1
0
1
0
1
3
2
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
2.019
0
0
1
1
0
0
7
2
3
4
4
19
4
11
0
3
0
0
1
1
4
32
14
14
43
9
0
1
2
0
0
3
2
2
1
0
1
0
1
4
3
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
2.020
0
0
1
2
1
0
5
3
3
5
4
18
4
13
0
4
0
0
0
1
3
33
13
13
41
9
0
1
1
1
0
2
1
2
1
0
1
1
1
5
3
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
-127
Shortfall
2020
-45%
-35%
-20%
-10%
-5%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
>25%
Surplus
Shortfall
-45%
-35%
-20%
-10%
-5%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
>25%
Surplus
Source: Project team discussion
206001-11-SWP@SC Proposal for a joint project-07Jul10-RM-MUN.ppt
1
265032-00-Central-Training-28May2010-APU-AMS-v6.ppt
11
265032-00-Central-Training-28May2010-APU-AMS-v6.ppt
17
Source: Strategic Workforce and Cost Planning project team
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
4
Draft – For discussion only
Methodology has been proven in multiple projects
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Extract of project references
Source: BCG analysis
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
5
Draft – For discussion only
Clustering of employees based on skills and experience
F4
F3
Job family groups
≤ 36
months
JFG master
electricians
F1
F2
Exchang
e
analysis
F1
Pair-by-pair
comparison with
regard to
exchangeability
Skill clusters
Staff development
possible in medium term—at relatively high
expense
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
JF master electrician trainers
Mechatronics
trainers
<3
months
Directly
exchangeable—
functions
directly
replaceable
Electrician
trainers
Functions
JF electrical
planners
< 18
months
Exchangeability
quickly achievable
- little additional
training required
JF electrical
planners
Job families
Master electricians LT repairs
F4
Master electricians ET repairs
F3
JF master electricians (operative)
F2
6
Draft – For discussion only
Flexible simulation of workforce supply scenarios
Illustrative parameters
Retirement
• 65 years
Fluctuation
• Ø 6.8% per year, derived from
historical data by age group
and by business unit
Supply
Development of staff levels
Headcount
Age groups
30–39
40–49
• none
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Recruiting
17–29
50–54
55–65
Productivity
Partial
retirement
Cost
• 3.5% absence rate
• none
• 7% inflation
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Note: FTE data as of 31 Dec 2009; Permanent employees only
Source: Central HR data; Central HR event list; BCG analysis
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
7
Draft – For discussion only
Approach links business strategy to workforce scenarios


Production scenarios
Demand
Asset strategy
100%
140000
130000
120000
110000
100000
50%
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
0%

9,000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
In- and Outsourcing
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Productivities
P2020
P2019
P2018
P2017
P2016
P2015
P2014
P2013
P2012
P2011
P2010
P2009
2007

P2008
40000
6,000
19
17
20
15
20
13
20
20
11
20
New technologies
20

09
3,000

Work Organization
Source: BCG analysis
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
8
Draft – For discussion only
Demand
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Specific simulation model
Also templates for data requests are ready to use
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
9
Draft – For discussion only
Detailed identification of capacity risks
Sum FTEs
10,697
Source: Project example
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
37
34
58
104
0
16
-136
118
66
-46
119
-57
-18
49
135
70
122
-13
32
45
53
101
23
9
-124
120
-102
-73
110
-55
-66
67
140
74
220
-13
-31
41
59
80
20
0
-127
121
-98
-95
86
-53
-85
-47
116
21
211
49
-61
-59
46
-237
0
3
-113
63
-94
-73
-271
-219
-210
-45
83
-131
108
53
-76
-65
-112
-202
-24
8
-123
41
-140
-54
-179
-381
-207
-43
-22
-124
115
-4
-79
-92
-156
-159
-28
13
-123
20
-126
-41
-77
-440
-249
-40
-111
-144
171
-7
-74
-96
-216
-114
-32
16
-145
6
-119
-30
-17
-414
-384
-38
-193
-145
214
-3
-194
-130
-204
-100
-36
18
-185
-25
-112
-21
-16
-664
-363
-32
-297
-145
225
-42
654
562
268
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Qualification
WF 09
242
Skilled tech. worker
407
Logistic planner
397
Worker mech. eng.
799
Commercial clerk
286
Robot expert
190
Metalworking mach. op.
581
Quality supervisor
853
Technical worker
352
Production IT expert
465
Machine operator
711
Specialized molder
574
Machine supervisor
288
Development engineer
453
Development techn.
1,256
Molding specialist
771
Mining engineer
1,642
Assembly technician
430
...
Gap
Demand vs. supply (# FTE, color %)
Surplus
Shortfall
10
Draft – For discussion only
Closing gaps taking typical career paths into account
3 years
Painter
1 year
Painting
specialist
3 years
Robot
expert
Time
2008
2011
2012
2015
Gap
0
10
20
32
Additional
demand
62
+
52
+
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mechanic
Gap
32
Source: Project example
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
11
Draft – For discussion only
Focused HR initiatives can be launched to address
capacity and skill risks
Structural change
Reduce
FTE
surplus
Source: BCG analysis
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
... and detail them
Recruiting/retention
• Recruiting-marketing strategy
• Apprenticeship strategy
• ...
Training
• Training strategy
• On-the-job-training concepts
• ...
Transfer
• Employee transfer programs
• ...
Out-/insourcing
Capacity reduction
• Sustainable outsourcing/
insourcing strategies
• ...
• Headcount reduction programs
• Capacity flexibilization
concepts
• ...
12
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
... develop HR
initiatives ...
Increase
identify problem
precisely ...
Measures
Draft – For discussion only
Effective counter-measures can be systematically
derived and tracked
Impact on capacity risks
Job functions
Baseline
Skilled technical worker
Logistics planner
Worker mechanical eng.
Commercial clerk
Refinishing worker
Metalworking mach. op.
Quality supervisor
Technical worker
Production IT expert
Machine operator
Specialized molder
Machine supervisor
Development engineer
Development technician
Molding specialist
Mining engineer
Assembly technician
...
Jobfunktionen
A
Training/
Development
2009 – 11 2012 –15
350 FTE
B
Techn. Facharbeiter
Logistikplaner
Arbeiter Maschinenbau
Kaufm. Angestellter
Nacharbeiter
Maschinist Metallbearb.
Qualitätssicherer
Techn. Arbeiter
IT-Experte, Produktion
Maschinist
Former
Maschinenführer
Entwicklungsingenieur
Entwicklungstechniker
Formungsspezialist
Bergbauingenieur
Monteur
...
Jobfunktionen
External
contracting
2009 – 11 2012 –15
250 FTE 140 FTE
HR measures
(by order of
preference)
Techn. Facharbeiter
Logistikplaner
Arbeiter Maschinenbau
Kaufm. Angestellter
Nacharbeiter
Maschinist Metallbearb.
Qualitätssicherer
Techn. Arbeiter
IT-Experte, Produktion
Maschinist
Former
Maschinenführer
Entwicklungsingenieur
Entwicklungstechniker
Formungsspezialist
Bergbauingenieur
Monteur
...
Source:
BCG Analysis
Strategic Workforce
Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
18%
9%
17%
15%
0%
9%
-19%
16%
-23%
-9%
20%
-9%
-6%
8%
12%
10%
12%
-3%
16%
13%
16%
15%
9%
5%
-18%
17%
-23%
-14%
19%
-9%
-19%
16%
13%
11%
18%
-3%
-12%
12%
19%
12%
8%
0%
-19%
18%
-23%
-18%
15%
-9%
-24%
16%
11%
3%
-10%
14%
-22%
-14%
15%
-25%
0%
2%
-18%
9%
-23%
-15%
-30%
-30%
-45%
8%
8%
-16%
-10%
16%
-27%
-16%
-25%
-23%
-9%
5%
-20%
6%
-32%
-12%
-23%
-44%
-46%
9%
-2%
-16%
-10%
-1%
-29%
-22%
-33%
-20%
-11%
9%
-21%
3%
-31%
-10%
-12%
-49%
-52%
15%
-10%
-19%
-10%
-2%
-29%
-24%
-42%
-16%
-13%
13%
-25%
1%
-31%
-8%
-3%
-49%
-64%
21%
-17%
-20%
-10%
-1%
-53%
-31%
-42%
-15%
-15%
15%
-31%
-4%
-31%
-6%
-3%
-62%
-64%
24%
-25%
-21%
-9%
-12%
2008
2014
2015
0%
12%
-3%
12%
21%
21%
12%
15%
21%
21%
9%
12%
21%
15%
12%
0%
15%
-46%
-60%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0%
0%
12%
9%
0%
0%
12%
9%
12%
9%
12%
12%
9%
0%
-15%
-15%
-15%
0%
0%
-20%
-20%
-20%
0%
0%
-20%
-20%
-20%
0%
-15%
-40%
0%
0%
-20%
-15%
0%
0%
12%
-20%
-15%
0%
0%
-3%
12%
0%
-3%
9%
-3%
0%
-20%
0%
-15%
0%
-15%
-20%
-15%
15%
15%
-15%
-3%
21%
15%
-3%
0%
-15%
-20%
9%
-15%
0%
-60%
-46%
-60%
-60%
-15%
-20%
9%
0%
12%
-60%
-60%
12%
-3%
12%
0%
9%
-60%
-46%
-3%
12%
21%
21%
12%
15%
21%
21%
12%
12%
21%
15%
12%
12%
15%
-46%
-60%
-15%
15%
21%
21%
-15%
0%
-15%
-3%
12%
0%
12%
-60%
-60%
2008
0%
12%
9%
0%
0%
0%
-3%
0%
0%
-20%
0%
0%
0%
9%
0%
12%
-3%
-3%
9%
15%
12%
12%
15%
0%
15%
0%
-3%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0%
12%
9%
12%
9%
12%
12%
9%
0%
9%
12%
12%
12%
15%
0%
15%
0%
-3%
-15%
-15%
-3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-3%
0%
0%
0%
9%
0%
0%
-3%
-3%
-20%
-20%
-3%
0%
0%
0%
-3%
0%
0%
-20%
0%
0%
0%
9%
0%
0%
-3%
-3%
-20%
-20%
-15%
0%
12%
0%
-3%
0%
0%
-15%
0%
0%
0%
9%
0%
12%
-3%
-3%
-15%
-20%
-15%
15%
15%
0%
-3%
21%
15%
-3%
0%
12%
0%
12%
0%
9%
-15%
-15%
0%
-3%
12%
21%
21%
12%
15%
21%
21%
12%
12%
21%
15%
12%
12%
15%
-20%
-60%
12%
-3%
12%
21%
21%
12%
15%
21%
21%
9%
12%
21%
15%
12%
0%
15%
-46%
-60%
Impact on capacity risks
Jobfunktionen
C
Apprenticeships
2009 – 11 2012 –15
120 FTE 230 FTE
Techn. Facharbeiter
Logistikplaner
Arbeiter Maschinenbau
Kaufm. Angestellter
Nacharbeiter
Maschinist Metallbearb.
Qualitätssicherer
Techn. Arbeiter
IT-Experte, Produktion
Maschinist
Former
Maschinenführer
Entwicklungsingenieur
Entwicklungstechniker
Formungsspezialist
Bergbauingenieur
Monteur
...
Jobfunktionen
D
Recruiting
2009 – 11 2012 –15
110 FTE
–
Techn. Facharbeiter
Logistikplaner
Arbeiter Maschinenbau
Kaufm. Angestellter
Nacharbeiter
Maschinist Metallbearb.
Qualitätssicherer
Techn. Arbeiter
IT-Experte, Produktion
Maschinist
Former
Maschinenführer
Entwicklungsingenieur
Entwicklungstechniker
Formungsspezialist
Bergbauingenieur
Monteur
...
Jobfunktionen
E
Lay-offs
2009 – 11 2012 –15
–
560 FTE
Techn. Facharbeiter
Logistikplaner
Arbeiter Maschinenbau
Kaufm. Angestellter
Nacharbeiter
Maschinist Metallbearb.
Qualitätssicherer
Techn. Arbeiter
IT-Experte, Produktion
Maschinist
Former
Maschinenführer
Entwicklungsingenieur
Entwicklungstechniker
Formungsspezialist
Bergbauingenieur
Monteur
...
2008
0%
12%
15%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-10%
0%
0%
0%
12%
0%
17%
0%
0%
-20%
2009
0%
12%
15%
12%
10%
12%
12%
10%
0%
10%
15%
12%
12%
15%
0%
15%
0%
0%
-10%
2010
-10%
-10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-3%
12%
0%
0%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-10%
2011
-20%
-20%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-20%
0%
0%
0%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-10%
2012
-20%
-20%
0%
12%
12%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-10%
0%
0%
0%
10%
0%
12%
0%
0%
-20%
2013
-10%
-20%
12%
17%
15%
0%
0%
21%
15%
-3%
0%
12%
0%
12%
0%
10%
0%
0%
-20%
2014
0%
-3%
17%
21%
21%
12%
17%
21%
21%
12%
12%
21%
15%
12%
12%
17%
0%
0%
-20%
2015
12%
-3%
21%
21%
21%
12%
17%
21%
21%
10%
12%
21%
17%
12%
0%
15%
12%
10%
-20%
2008
0%
12%
15%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
0%
17%
0%
0%
0%
2009
0%
12%
15%
12%
15%
12%
12%
10%
0%
10%
15%
12%
12%
15%
0%
15%
0%
0%
0%
2010
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
0%
0%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
12%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10%
0%
12%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
17%
15%
0%
0%
21%
15%
0%
0%
12%
0%
12%
0%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
17%
21%
21%
12%
17%
21%
21%
12%
12%
21%
15%
12%
12%
17%
0%
0%
0%
12%
0%
21%
21%
21%
12%
17%
21%
21%
10%
12%
21%
17%
12%
0%
15%
12%
10%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0%
12%
15%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
15%
12%
10%
12%
12%
10%
0%
10%
15%
12%
12%
15%
0%
15%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
0%
0%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
12%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-3%
-10%
0%
0%
0%
13
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
HR measures
(by order of
preference)
Measures
Draft – For discussion only
This is not a one-time exercise but a an enablement of
HR into a continuous strategy HR process
Einbindung Betriebsrat sicherstellen
tbd
Arbeitsmedizin
Experten
Arbeitssicherheit
tbd
Arbeitsrecht
Organisation
Meister/Mitarbeiter in
Wechselschicht
tbd
tbd
Sparte
Grundsatzfragen
tbd
tbd
tbd
Betrieb
Betrieb
Betrieb
Implementation
of measures
Risk
Analyses
tbd
Action
planing
Risk analysis of
different strategy
scenarios
Category
FTEs
2005
Job family ABC
350
Job family ABC
480
Job family ABC
150
Job family ABC
237
Job family ABC
244
Job family ABC
999
Job family ABC
550
Job family ABC
135
Job family ABC
190
Job family ABC
200
Job family ABC
227
Job family ABC
185
Job family ABC
235
Job family ABC
240
Job family ABC
400
Job family ABC
350
Job family ABC
300
Job family ABC
20
...
30
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Definition of concrete
action steps
Analyse
Analyseergebnisse
Analyse
Alterungseffekte
Handlungsempfehlungen
Demographisches Risiko in der Wechselschicht
1
2006
MÄ
2011
2016
2021
2026
-500
2
Analyse der Alterung
in der Wechselschicht
• Aufsetzen eines Projektteams zur
Erarbeitung konkreter Maßnahmen zur
Reduktion des demographischen Risikos
in der Wechselschicht
0
-1000
-1500
-2000
• Wechselschicht in besonderem Maße von
Alterung betroffen: Ver-4,3-Fachung des Anteil
der über 50 Jährigen bis 2016
• Bis 2011 mehr als 50% über 50 Jahre alt
• Signifikantes Risiko der Wechselschichtuntauglichkeit mit zunehmendem Alter
• Teamstruktur sollte die folgenden
Funktionen umfassen:
- Personalcontrolling
- Operative Personalabteilung
- Personalstrategie
- Betrieb
- Arbeitsmedizin
- Organisation
- Grundsatzfragen
- Weitere Experten z.B.
Arbeitssicherheit, Arbeitsrecht, Meister
Source: Project example
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
14
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Projektleitung Personalcontrolling
Personalstrategie
Updates:
Strategic
scenarios
Implementation
Lenkungskreis
t.b.d.
Team
tbd
Demand Tool Controlcenter
Annual updates during
the strategy process:
Joint effort strategy,
HR and line
Project
Operative Personalabteilung
Process
Draft – For discussion only
Very positive feedback – project enables the HR organization
Client feedback from BCG strategic workforce planning projects
"Mother of all HR projects!"
"We – as HR became actively involved in strategy process"
"First step towards becoming an HR business partner "
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
"Results were directly translated in concrete board decisions"
"We speak the same language as Finance and Strategy"
"We set up an implementation controlling to enforce all measures"
"Approach is easy to implement, it is pragmatic and goal oriented"
"Best consulting project ever"
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
15
Draft – For discussion only
Approach also covered in leading publications
Copyright © 2011 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Example Harvard Business Review
Strategic Workforce Planning Presentation at HR Club.pptx
16