Transcript Space Transportation BSR Template

Aviation Safety Challenges
and Opportunities for COSCAP Regional
Safety Teams
A Manufacturer’s Perspective
Hank Reed
Aviation Safety
The Boeing Company
Gerard Guyot
Safety Consultant
Airbus
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Airbus and
The Boeing Company
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Aviation Safety: Some Perspective
Worldwide:
 An airplane is landing approximately every two
seconds somewhere in the world
– Approximately 53,000 flights per day
 More than 3 million people fly each day
 In 2006, Over 1.2 billion people flew on over 20
million flights
 In 2006, there was 7 fatal accidents
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Airline Travel is Extraordinarily Safe
42,643
U.S. Transportation Fatalities – 2003*
Number
of
Fatalities
Source: NTSB
703
767
622
626
73
Highway
Recreational
Rail
boating
transportation
and other
marine
Bicycles
General
aviation
Commercial
Airlines*
47
Other
commercial
aviation
*5-Year (ending in 2003) average for commercial Jets, U.S. operations only
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09-15-04 PUB-015
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… And we are making progress!
Hull Loss Accident Rate
Western-Built Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs) 1993 - 2005
2.00
5 year running average
1.60
Hull Loss Accident Rate
(per million departures)
1.20
0.80
0.40
Industry/Government Collaborative Efforts
0.00
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
We Need to Continuously Improve
Aviation Safety…
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Annual Hull loss accident rate
[Accidents per million departures]
5
0
1960
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1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1-19-05
FT-004Wc
5
We Need to Continuously Improve
Aviation Safety…
50
32,495
45
Airplanes
in service
20,042
40
35
2006
2021
30
25
20
Departures, Millions
15
10
Annual Hull loss accident rate
[Accidents per million departures]
5
0
1960
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1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1-19-05
FT-004Wc
6
We Need to Continuously Improve
Aviation Safety…
50
32,495
45
Airplanes
in service
20,042
40
35
2006
Hull loss
accidents
per year
30
25
2021
Business as usual
20
15
Departures per year,
Millions
10
Annual Hull loss accident rate
[Accidents per million departures]
5
Reductions possible with
continued Industry effort
0
1960
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1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
1-19-05
FT-004Wc
7
Departures and Flight Hours
Worldwide Operations* 1987 through 2006
45
40.3
Flight hours
Departures
40
35
Annual
departures
and
flight hours
(millions)
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30
25
20.0
20
15
10
5
0
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Year
• 487.5 million cumulative departures since 1959 (396.1 million on Boeing airplanes)
• 874.4 million cumulative flight hours since 1959 (684.9 million on Boeing airplanes)
• 7 manufacturers – 35 significant types (14 Boeing) in service as of 12/31/2006
*Western fleet
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Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet is Growing,
But There are Limits to Growth
32,000
LIMITS TO GROWTH
30000
25000
20000
Number of
airplanes at
years end 15000
• Safety/Security
Perceptions
• Traffic Congestion
• Environmental
Factors
GROWTH
• Public Confidence
• Strong Economies
• Peace & Prosperity
10000
5000
0
2002
2005
2010
2015
2020
Because the Aviation System Is Complex,
All Parts of Industry Must Work Together
150,000+ flight crew
800+ airlines
200+ languages
200+ countries
1,350+ major
airports
240,000+ maintenance
personnel
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More than 21,000
airplanes
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Safety Responsibilities Are Shared
Safe Airplane + Safe Operation + Safe Infrastructure = Safe Air Travel
Air Safety
Governments
Manufacturers
 Safe airplane design
 Safety-enhancing technology
development
 Flight and maintenance
operations, recommendations,
Operators
documents, training, and
support
 Operations policy and
 Maintenance planning
procedures
 Safety-related analysis
 Airplane/pilot publications
 Safety initiatives
 Approved maintenance
program
 Maintenance, policy, and
procedures
 Maintenance publications
 Safety program
 Training











Aviation law
Operations specification
Rules and regulations
Inspectors policy,
procedures, and training
Airline policy and
procedures requirements
Safety, health, environmental
law, and regulations
Navigation facilities/operations
Airport facilities
Departure en route, arrival,
approach policy, and
procedures
Air traffic control services
Safety-related analysis
Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category
Fatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 1997 Through 2006
1800
1643 (67)
1655 (0)
ARC
CFIT
F-NI
FUEL
LOC-G
LOC-I
MAC
OTHR
RAMP
RE
RI-VAP
SCF-NP
External fatalities [Total 249]
1600
Onboard fatalities [Total 5,149]
1400
1200
Abnormal Runway Contact
Controlled Flight into or Toward Terrain
Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact)
Fuel Related
Loss of Control – Ground
Loss of Control – In flight
Midair/Near Midair Collision
Other
Ground Handling
Runway Excursion
Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or Person
System/Component Failure or Malfunction
(Non-Powerplant)
System/Component Failure or Malfunction
(Powerplant)
Turbulence Encounter
Undershoot/Overshoot
Unknown or Undetermined
Wind shear or Thunderstorm
SCF-PP
TURB
USOS
UNK
WSTRW
Fatalities
1000
No accidents were noted in the following categories:
AMAN
Abrupt Maneuver
ADRM
Aerodrome
ATM
Air Traffic Management/
Communications, Navigation, Surveillance
CABIN
Cabin Safety Events
EVAC
Evacuation
F-POST
Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact)
GCOL
Ground Collision
ICE
Icing
LALT
Low Altitude Operations
RI-A
Runway Incursion – Animal
SEC
Security Related
800
600
Onboard fatalities
546 (0)
External fatalities
400
262 (77)
156 (71)
For a complete description go to:
http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/
200
126 (0) 124 (2) 120 (0) 110 (10) 110 (4) 109 (1) 107 (1)
55 (9)
23 (0)
0
LOC-I
Number of
fatal
accidents
(89 total)
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19
CFIT
20
SCFNP
RE
5
8
MAC
2
LOC-G
1
OTHR
UNK RI-VAP
5
2
F-NI
3
USOSWSTRW
2
3
ARC
2
FUEL
6
0 (7)
RAMP
1
2 (0)
SCFPP
7
1 (0)
TURB
2
1
Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST.
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Fatal Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of Flight
Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 1997 Through 2006
Percentage of accidents/fatalities
19%
Taxi, load/
unload
parked,
tow
Takeoff
Initial
climb
Climb
(flaps up)
Fatal Accidents
13%
11%
8%
11%
10%
Onboard Fatalities
0%
12%
17%
12%
19%
Cruise
Q
32%
Initial
approach
Final
approach
Landing
5%
10%
10%
22%
6%
14%
15%
5%
Descent
20%
29%
Exposure*
(Percentage of flight
time estimated for a
1.5 hour flight)
Initial
approach
fix
<1%
1%
1%
14%
57%
11%
Final
approach
fix
12%
3%
1%
*Percentages do not sum to 100% due to numerical rounding.
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2000
100
Distribution of fatal accidents and onboard fatalities
Fatal accidents
80
Onboard fatalities
1500
Fatal
60
accidents
858
40
20
0
617
788
716
625
20
299
11
10
7
10
9
4
Taxi, load/
unload
parked,
tow
Onboard
Fatalitie
1000 fatalities
967
4
9
9
275
500
0
Takeoff
Initial
climb
Climb
Cruise
Descent
Initial
approach
Final
approach
Landing
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2006 STATISTICAL SUMMARY, JULY 2007
Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category
Fatal Accidents - Asia (including China) Airline Domicile - 1997 Through 2006
1200
External fatalities [Total 64]
1000
Onboard fatalities [Total 1,815]
980
ARC
CFIT
F-NI
LOC-I
RE
SCF-NP
SCF-PP
800
No accidents were noted in the following categories:
AMAN
Abrupt Maneuver
ADRM
Aerodrome
ATM
Air Traffic Management/
Communications, Navigation, Surveillance
CABIN
Cabin Safety Events
EVAC
Evacuation
F-POST
Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact)
FUEL
Fuel Related
GCOL
Ground Collision
ICE
Icing
LALT
Low Altitude Operations
LOC-G
Loss of Control – Ground
MAC
Midair/Near Midair Collision
OTHR
Other
RAMP
Ground Handling
RI-A
Runway Incursion – Animal
RI-VAP
Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or Person
SEC
Security Related
TURB
Turbulence Encounter
USOS
Undershoot/Overshoot
UNK
Unknown or Undetermined
WSTRW
Wind shear or Thunderstorm
Onboard fatalities
Fatalities
External fatalities
600
462(61)
400
225
200
108
38(3)
1
1
0
CFIT
Number of
Fatal
Accidents
(22)
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8
LOC-I
6
SCFNP
RE
ARC
1
2
3
Abnormal Runway Contact
Controlled Flight into or Toward Terrain
Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact)
Loss of Control – In flight
Runway Excursion
System/Component Failure or Malfunction
(Non-Powerplant)
System/Component Failure or Malfunction
(Powerplant)
For a complete description go to:
http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/
FIRE-NI SCFPP
1
1
Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST.
14
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Asia (Including China) Airline Domicile
Fatal Accidents by CAST/ICAO Taxonomy Accident Category
CFIT
8
LOC-I
6
ARC
3
RE
2
SCF-NP
1
F-NI
1
SCF-PP
1
1997
ARC
CFIT
F-NI
LOC-I
RE
SCF-NP
SCF-PP
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Abnormal Runway Contact
Controlled Flight into or Toward Terrain
Fire/Smoke (Non-Impact)
Loss of Control – In flight
Runway Excursion
System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Non-Powerplant)
System/Component Failure or Malfunction (Powerplant)
No accidents were noted with the following principal categories:
AMAN
ADRM
ATM
CABIN
EVAC
F-POST
Abrupt Maneuver
Aerodrome
Air Traffic
Management/Communications,
Navigation, Surveillance
Cabin Safety Events
Evacuation
Fire/Smoke (Post-Impact)
FUEL
GCOL
ICE
LALT
LOC-G
MAC
OTHR
RAMP
Fuel Related
Ground Collision
Icing
Low Altitude Operations
Loss of Control – Ground
Midair/Near Midair Collision
Other
Ground Handling
Runway Incursion – Animal
Runway Incursion – Vehicle, Aircraft or
Person
SEC
Security Related
TURB
Turbulence Encounter
USOS
Undershoot/Overshoot
UNK
Unknown or Undetermined
WSTRW
Wind shear or Thunderstorm
For a complete description go to: http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/
Note: Principal categories as assigned by CAST
RI-A
RI-VAP
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Regional Perspective
Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1997 through 2006
Europe
0.7
C.I.S.
4.9
China
0.3
ESSI
United States
and Canada
0.5
CAST
PAAST
Latin America
and Caribbean
2.4
Middle East
3.0
Asia
1.9
(Excluding
China)
COSCAPS
Africa
12.0
ASET
Oceania
0.0
World
1.16
Accidents per
million departures
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Possible Reasons for Regional
Accident Rate Differences
 Infrastructure
– Air traffic control
– Navigation aids
– Airport equipment
– Weather services
 Airline operations
– Procedures
– Training
– Maintenance
– Dispatch
 Regulatory oversight
– Aviation law
– Regulation
– Personnel qualifications
– Resource constraints
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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
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Government
Industry
AIA
Airbus
ALPA
APA
ATA
NACA
Boeing
GE*
RAA
FSF
IATA
AAPA
ATAC
APFA
Commercial Aviation
Safety Team
(CAST)
DOD
FAA
•
•
•
•
•
Aircraft Certification
Flight Standards
System Safety
Air Traffic Operations
Research
NASA
ICAO
EASA
TCC
NATCA
NTSB
*Representing P&W and RR
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Worldwide Risk Analysis
 CAST plan developed to reduce fatality risk in U.S.
Part 121 operations
 Question was raised by ICAO, PAAST and ESSI as
to effectiveness of CAST plan worldwide
 Worldwide fatal accident data from 1987 – 2001
analyzed using the CAST selection tool
– 331 accidents, which had sufficient data, were analyzed
and scored
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Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident Location Region
Attributed to CFIT
Portion of
Regional
Fatality
Risk
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(1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Fatal Accidents)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Latin America
& Caribbean
Asia
Europe
Africa
North America
20
Portion of the Fatality Risk in Each Accident Location Region
Attributed to CFIT That Can be Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted
(2007 Implementation Values)
1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Fatal and Hull Loss Accidents
70
Risk Eliminated
60
Risk Remaining
50
Portion of
Regional
Fatality
Risk
(Percent)
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40
30
20
10
0
Latin America
& Caribbean
Asia
Europe
World
Africa
North America
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Conclusion
 Commercial air travel is extraordinarily safe, but improvements must
continue to be made
 Not all areas or environments of the world are the same — we need to use
facts, data, and continuing insight to focus appropriate improvement
efforts
 Improving safety in Asia is a shared responsibility of the manufacturers,
the airline operators, and Government/State authorities, but it will take
willingness and commitment to make it happen
 COSCAP regional safety teams and similar safety organizations can help
to reduce accident risk
 Considerations should be given to implementing appropriate CAST Safety
Enhancements to reduce fatality risk
 Airbus and Boeing are committed to help enhance aviation safety
 Rapid growth of commercial aviation in ASIA presents significant
challenges
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Next Steps
 Measure implementation levels and effectiveness of
processes and procedures already put in place (e.g.
adopted CAST Safety Enhancements)
 Integrate appropriate elements of the Global Aviation
Safety Roadmap
 Identify gaps that exist and form plans to address
 Establish an information-sharing process to better
gauge effectiveness of enhancements and identify
emerging threats