Transcript Breakout Groups

Breakout Groups
ONE
Francis Zwiers
Stewart Cohen
Bryan Tugwood
Rick Lee
Ray Desjardins
Seong Heon Kim
Bill Richards
Katja Woth
Georges Desrochers
FOUR
Rob Wilby
Dieter Riedel
Mark Barton
John Charlery
Juno Song
Kim Logan
Paulin Coulibaly
Suzan Lapp
Tan Danh Nguyen
TWO
Jean Palutikof
Don Lemmen
Julia James
Elaine Wheaton
Bill Taylor
Jim Byrne
Nicole McKechnie
Carrie Holcapek
Mohammad Matiur Rahmen
FIVE
Alain Bourque
Clare Goodess
Sam Gameda
Denise Neilsen
André St. Hilaire
Gary Lines
VTV Nguyen
Adam Fenech
Bill Girling
THREE
Hélène Côté
Eric Taylor
Ben Kangasniemi
Vanessa Egginton
Abdel Maarouf
John Anderson
Shusen Wang
Jim Helbig
SIX
Dave Sauchyn
Xuebin Zhang
Bing Rong
Henry Hengeveld
Ross Herrington
Jiafeng Wang
Ge Yu
Martin Lacroix
Juraj Cunderlik
Extremes Scenarios Workshop:
Breakout Group 1
Cohen, Zwiers, McKinnon, Lee, Desjardins,
Richards, Kim, Woth, Desrochers, Tugwood
Q1:most important aspects of
variability/extremes
• Frequency, duration, severity, timing of
events
• some elements will have to be derived
outside of the GCM (e.g. soil moisture)
• others can be obtained directly (e.g. freezethaw)
Q2: which variables?
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•
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Soil moisture
water: precipitation IDF
atmospheric stability: mixed layer depth
sea level rise: 6-hour event from RCM
Q3: what should a scenario
consist of?
• Change in risk of a particular event
• RCM--scenarios of internally consistent
multiple variables (e.g. warm-dry spells)
Q6: past climates
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•
•
•
What is ‘more’ reliance?
Can learn about undisturbed conditions
can complement instrumental record
possible use as temporal analogue (with
caveats)
Q7: uncertainty
• Range of plausible outcomes, so specific
language may not be desired (uncertain
about use of IPCC terminology--needs
further work)
• for impacts--scenario comes from a known
source with unknown probability
Q8: downscaling
• Yes, impacts researchers want to use this
• could use either RCM or statistical methods
(with appropriate caveats for each)
Q13: national strategy
• Hard to find another facility like CCIS;
goes beyond what UK-LINK does
• impacts community well served by CCIS;
better then what existed before; this reduces
gap between GCM output production and
its use for impacts/adaptation research
Group 2
National Workshop on the Development of Scenarios
of Climate Variability and Extremes
Data and Knowledge Gaps
• more data available – starting with dew point, radiation
• major gaps on ocean parameters
• El Nino / NAO – need Canadian research capacity
• time scales – focus on relevance to stakeholders (nearer term)
• paleo needs to be integrated into all aspects of scenario
development
• For I&A work key variables need to be stakeholder defined –
need process to have this lead
Group 2
National Workshop on the Development of Scenarios
of Climate Variability and Extremes
Strategy
• increased collaboration between gov’t departments
• regional expertise in regional centres
• driven by impacts and adaptation needs
• needs to be supported by research program – e.g. uncertainties
• scenario facility needs to reside within gov’t as need is driven
by policy, ensure long term stability
• model of collocation of gov’t and university researchers
• RCM output could contribute significantly, need more runs and
greater access to data
Group 2
National Workshop on the Development of Scenarios
of Climate Variability and Extremes
Uncertainty
• critical to communicate but very difficult to do define
• level needed depends on decisions that are being made
• uncertainty of when generally less important than if
• assessment of models – limit access to less reliable model data
• place emphasis on probability distribution functions
Group 3
• Question 1.
• a)
Need to define extreme for specific sector or location.
• b)
More analysis needed of historical climate extremes
and variability.
• c)
More information needed on “event-driven” historical
extremes - e.g. hot spells in conjunction with warm low
temperatures and high humidity.
• d)
Historical data from different agencies needed to be
made available to all agencies and researchers.
• e)
Monitoring network needs strengthening. Also, remote
sensing of climate elements could enhance surface
observations.
Group 3
• a)
More stakeholder involvement needed to identify
climate information gaps.
• b)
More information on disagreements between different
climate analyses.
• c)
C-CIARN Regions and Sectors need to pro-actively
get information from stakeholders and decision-makers on:
• a.
Current vulnerability based on historical climate
extremes.
• b.
Stakeholder knowledge of historical climate extremes
• c.
Climate-related datasets that could be made available
widely
• d.
Needs for future climate information
Group 3
• Question 3.
• a)
Expanded and improved interface between Scenarios
Facility and users.
• b)
Scenarios should consist of information useful to
stakeholders as well as modellers.
• c)
Need to identify whether existing communities or
sectors will experience extremes that have never been
experienced before.
• d)
Scenarios need to:
• a.
Provide plausible information to allow stakeholders
to assess the change in risk of future impacts.
• b.
Focus on multiple variables.
• c.
Provide output focussed on user needs.
Group 3
• Ensure “extreme” scientists improve their
interscientific communication
• Question 6.
• a) Paleo climate is necessary to increase our
knowledge of regional climate and its variability.
• b) Paleo climate useful in increasing user
confidence in GCM and RCM “predictions”.
• Question 7.
• Uncertainty information is needed.
Group 3
• a)
Since some impacts models are more sensitive than
others to climate scenario impacts, the amount of
“certainty” needs will vary with the user.
• b)
Need some measure of the attribution of uncertainty in
a scenario.
• Question 8.
• a)
Downscaling is important, but deriving extremes that
are useful for individual users from these outputs is
problematic.
• b)
Information on tools and methodologies for
downscaling need to be provided also, along with
consultation on how to use downscaled data.
Group 3
• c)
Downscaled data should also include information
from analogues and adjustment of historical variability
and extremes.
Question 13.
• a)
Scenarios facility should continue.
• b)
Scenarios Facility needs to immediately engage
stakeholders to define its needs.
• c)
Scenarios Facility should provide access to
paleoclimate information.
• d)
Scenarios Facility should provide qualitative
assessment GCM suitability for different areas of Canada,
or perhaps which ones should be used for ensemble
“forecasting.”
Group 3
• e)
Scenarios Facility should post output from
RCMs from Canada and other countries when
available.
• f)
A comparison of RCMs is needed for
Canada.
• e)
Scenarios Facility should post output from
RCMs from Canada and other countries when
available.
• g)
Information on strength and weaknesses of
NCEP and other re-analyses.
• h) A standard evaluation protocol is needed for
all scenario tools.
Group 4
• Chair: Gary Lines (EC Atlantic)
• Adam Fenech (EC)
• Rapporteur: Andre St-Hilaire (INRS-ETE,
Ouranos).Alain Bourque (Ouranos)Clair Goodess
(UK Stardex)Van Nguyen (McGill, Brace
Centre)Bill Girling (Manitoba Hydro)Sam Gameda
(Ag Can Ottawa)Denise Neilsen (Ag Can
BC)Trevor Murdoch (CICS-floater)
1a. Most important aspects of climate
variability and extreme events
Point-scale information
• Micro-climate of island states, sub-RCM grid
• Extreme topography of BC (250-3500 mm)
• Extreme wind speeds building design/ fire risk
• Wind direction eg fire spread, air quality
Extremes of precipitation (snow accumulation)
Sequencing of wet/dry-days and spells
Multi-season droughts
Disaggregation to sub-daily eg. PMP
Sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion
1b. Level of understanding of current
vulnerabilities to climate change
Limited data availability restricts knowledge
• Long-term, homogeneous records
• Sparse networks and getting sparser
• Ungauged watersheds
• Meta information on land-use, management
Qualitative understanding in many sectors
Operational rules for water plants
Engineering design
1c. Relevance of long-term climate variability
Lack of confidence in model variability
Historic ranges useful
Best to have tool-box full of techniques
2. Which variables should be the focus
Not really possible to short-list but if pushed:
• Precipitation
• Temperature
• Wind speeds
• Local sea-level rise
3. Understanding of ‘scenarios of climate
variability and extremes’
Format: time-series, return periods, thresholds
Diverse users, diverse needs
Time-series can give all of the above
Ensembles help express uncertainty of model
Some indices can downscaled directly
6. Should we place more reliance on
information from past climates?
Not at the expense of other activities
Merits more effort, provided in usable format
Past not neccesarily a useful analogue but may
Help understanding of large-scale processes
7. Should information on uncertainty be
provided?
Yes. IPCC classes helpful eg ‘Highly likely’
Regional skill scores for various GCMs, RCMs
8. Downscaling a viable option?
Yes. No better alternative for many applications
Scenarios (+liability!!!) = 1/9
Tools = 8/9
Downscaling can incorporate local knowledge
Opportunity to build capacity
Support and training critical
13. National strategies to develop scenarios of
extremes and variability
More investment in monitoring/data networks
National coordination, research at province level
Networks could mimic EU groups
Single scenarios centre providing data + training
More capacity to develop/critique tools in-house
Broader network of local ‘trainers’
Partnership of Federal Government, Provincial
and stakeholders
Concerted/sustained links to international groups
WMO endorsement of tools/techniques
Group 5
Breakout Group Questions
Group 5
• 1.
Current methods for analysing extremes
(useful feedbacks from international projects): Is
it necessary to use in an integrated approach
between dynamical and statistical downscaling
tools to analyse extremes?
• 2. How do we deal with extremes in a nonstationary climate?
• 3.
Do extremes in a nordic climate require
special attention?
Group 5
• 1. What recommendations are suggested for a
national strategy to develop scenarios of extremes
and climate variability (e.g., national/international
collaboration, collaborative projects, tool
development, bridges between historical-paleo data
groups, modelling groups, statisticians, and I&A
users)?
Impact res. Projects may reveal weaknesses in current
climate modelling approaches as well as uncertainty
in impact models. Climate model may be improved
by feeding back these weaknesses to the modellers.
Group 5
• Practical user’s guide to GCM and RCM outputs. Some
of it exists on CCIS site but more may be required.
•
• A lot of piecemeal approach thus far. A more integrated
approach is required with a national scope.
•
• There should be a national body to establish a link
between scientific community and IA.
•
(CCAF and Adaptation groups have initiated such
work (CCIARN)).
Group 5
• There is a submission on national centre of
excellence on CC (research focus but
CCIARN and Ouranos are involved)
• Regional efforts in networking.
• Should there be an opportunity to organize a
national body as funding will be restructured
in the near future?
Note that NSERC has a international fund. This
is an opportunity. There is a new project on
Ensembles
Group 5
• There are two types of users: science but
also easy transfer of data for IA. Must
add non complex info sheets for IA. Not
necessarily a CCIS job. Perhaps three
levels or pre-digested info (Scenarios/IA
Managers, etc.).
Group 5
• Impact res. Projects may reveal weaknesses in current
climate modelling approaches as well as uncertainty in
impact models. Climate model may be improved by
feeding back these weaknesses to the modellers.
• Practical user’s guide to GCM and RCM outputs. Some
of it exists on CCIS site but more may be required.
A lot of piecemeal approach thus far. A more integrated
approach
• is required with a national scope.
Group 5
• There should be a national body to establish a link
between scientific community and IA.
(CCAF and Adaptation groups have initiated such
work (CCIARN)).
There is a submission on national centre of
excellence on CC (research focus but CCIARN and
Ouranos are involved)
Regional efforts in networking.
Should there be an opportunity to organize a
national body as funding will be restructured in the
near future?
Note that NSERC has a international fund. This is an
opportunity. There is a new project on Ensembles
Summary - Group 5
1. Info available:
Long term time series / homogeneity problem
2. Vulnerability Known:
NO. Not enough
Group 6 Report
Q1. Most important aspects
• Need for more consultation with I&A community on this –
suggest use of C-CIARN to do this
• Will likely be regionally variable – not national in scope.
• Need to include Little Ice Age and MWP in long term
database to complement obs data ensuring that we capture 2
key periods
• New data types mean that proprietary nature of data needs
to be respected in development of scenarios (i.e. allow
publication before constucting scenarios)
• CCIS may have a role to play in provision of current
climate data (to complement current sources)
Variability & Extreme Scenarios
• Scenarios are plausible pictures of future climate, its
variability and extremes I.e.”future weather scenarios”.
• Need for data not only for I&A but also to validate model
performance on variability & extremes
– XT scenarios will be spatially and temporally different from
current “mean” scenarios.
• Selected variables depend on user need and hence require
consultation
• Recognition of the limitations in generating scenarios of
desired parameters and work towards finding new ways of
using climate scenarios to address questions
Q8. Downscaling
• Need to make available a suite of several scenarios
and different types of tools to develop scenarios to
address the varying needs of users
– Also provides a means of ensuring that the nature of the
uncertainties are well explained as they will be different
than for current scenarios of means.
• The need to check on proper use of the tools
• Need mechanisms to ensure that tools developed
under grants come into the public domain.
Recommendations: National Strategy
• Should produce the best scenarios we can now and also
continue research to refine them over time.
• ID needs of I&A community – C-CIARN & CCIS to take
leadership in process to prioritize needs
– CCIS & C-CIARN should put together a proposal asap
• Develop better understanding of current vulnerabilities
– Improved paleo data will be needed to fill in gaps
– Also provides better understanding of scenario needs
• Both suite of extreme scenarios and tools for developing
such scenarios should be provided to users
• Recommend renewal of funding for next phase of CCIS
Recommendations: Continued
• In developing research program, should use
results focused strategic approach (including
competition within this framework where
appropriate)
– Include role for CCIS & advisory committee within
this strategy
• Preference is for an integrated funding system that
encourages investment from industry/others