Transcript Document

Workshop on Quantitative Tools &
Negotiating Capacity
17 February 2006
Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
Jonathan Pershing, [email protected]
B
A
S
I
www.basic-project.net
C
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Content
1. Introduction on options for international climate
policy post 2012 (30 min)
2.
Interactive demonstration of the CAIT
developed by WRI (30 min by J. Pershing)
3.
Interactive demonstration of
developed by Ecofys (30 min)
4.
Interactive demonstration of the
developed by MNP/RIVM (30 min)
the
tool
EVOC
model
FAIR
model
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Future international action on climate
change network
Collecting information
- Activities
- Institutions
- Ideas
Discussion forum
www.fiacc.net
Funded by
- German Federal
Environmental Agency
- EU Commissions DG
Environment
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Content
1. Introduction on options for international
climate policy post 2012
2. Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool
developed by WRI
3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model
developed by Ecofys
4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model
developed by MNP/RIVM
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Time scales of stabilization
Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Possible temperature trajectories
Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001
EU climate target of 2°C
above pre-industrial level
• 1000 to 1861, N.
Hemisphere, proxy data;
• 1861 to 2000 Global,
Instrumental;
• 2000 to 2100, SRES
projections
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Linking
temperature
to
concentration
Levels of CO2 concentration
EU climate target
Preindustrial: 280 ppm
Current: 360 ppm
Source:
IPCC Syntheses Report, 2001
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
Reference
120%
100%
80%
550ppm
60%
40%
20%
450ppm
0%
-20%
400/350ppm
-40%
-60%
-80%
2000
2010
Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only
2020
2030
2040
-100%
2050
Change to 1990
GtC
Stabilization pathways
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Approaches
• Contraction and Convergence (C&C)
• Common but Differentiated Convergence (CDC)
• Multistage
• South North Dialogue – Equity in the Greenhouse
• Brazilian Proposal
• Sectoral approaches
• Triptych
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Contraction and Convergence
•
Contraction: Agreement on a global emission pathway
(e.g. towards 450ppmv)
•
Convergence: Per capita emission converge until, e.g., 2050
Emissions per capita (tCO2eq./person)
30
Annex I
25
Global total
Non-Annex I
20
15
10
5
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Origin:
Global Commons Institute
www.gci.org.uk/briefings/I
CE.pdf
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Common but differentiated
convergence (CDC)
• Three stages
• Participation threshold:
– (time dependent) global
average per capita emissions
Höhne, den Elzen, Weiss: “Common but
differentiated convergence” accepted at Climate
Policy 2005
GHG/cap
– No commitments
– “No-Lose” targets
– Convergence of per capita emission level to the same
level in e.g. 40 years
Threshold
Time
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Multistage approach
• Participation in e.g. four stages:
Reduction
Moderate reduction
No
commitments
Sustainable development
policies and measures
• Countries “graduate” to a next step, if threshold is
passed, e.g. emissions/cap
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
South North Dialogue
Quantitative
commitment
Qualitative
commitment
Financial
support
1. Least developed
countries
-
SD PAMS optional
Receive
payments
2. Other developing
countries
-
SD PAMS obligatory,
co-funded
Receive
payments
3. Rapidly industrializing
developing countries
Limitation if
funding provided
SD PAMS obligatory,
co-funded
Receive high
payments
4. Newly industrialized
countries
Limitation
SD PAMS obligatory
Co-funding
5. Annex I but not Annex
II
Absolute
reduction
-
Low/no
payments
6. Annex II
Strict absolute
reduction
-
Make high
payments
• Thresholds: CO2/GDP, GHG/cap, emission growth, cumulative emissions,
GDP/cap, HDI; show members of the groups
• Adaptation commitment
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Brazilian Proposal
• Emission reductions by Annex I countries
proportional to contribution to temperature
increase
• Participation by Non-Annex I countries not
defined
• The only proposal still discussed under the
UNFCCC, but its implementation unclear
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Sectoral approaches
• Emission limits for particular sectors only
• Emission limits as a function of production
(e.g. tCO2/tSteel)
• Common emission or energy efficiency standards
on one sector globally
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Industry
Adjusted BAU production growth
with efficiency improvement
Electricity
Adjusted BAU production growth
with limit on sources
Domestic
Converging per-capita emissions
Fossil fuel
production
Decline to low level
Agricultural
Percentage reduction below BAU
Waste
Converging per-capita emissions
Land use
change and
forestry
Decline to zero (here excluded)
National
emission target
Triptych
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Overview of tools
CAIT
Emission
allocation
FAIR
X
(X)
Contraction and
Convergence (C&C)
X
X
Common but Differentiated
Convergence (CDC)
X
(X)
Multistage
X
X
South North Dialogue –
Equity in the greenhouse
X
(X)
Country level historical data
XX
EVOC
Brazilian Proposal
Sectoral approaches
Triptych
Mitigation costs
X
(X)
X
(X)
X
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Content
1. Introduction on options
climate policy post 2012
for
international
2. Interactive demonstration of the CAIT
tool developed by WRI
3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model
developed by Ecofys
4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model
developed by MNP/RIVM
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Content
1. Introduction on options
climate policy post 2012
for
international
2. Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool
developed by WRI
3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC
model developed by Ecofys
4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR model
developed by MNP/RIVM
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
EVOC Tool
Input
• Historical emission data per country (hierarchy of emissions sources, all
Kyoto gases, sectors)
• Energy, population, GDP data from IEA
• Future reference development (emissions, population, GDP) based on RIVM
IMAGE implementation of the IPCC SRES scenarios
Output
• Emissions or emission allowances under various proposals for future
international climate policy after 2012
– Contraction and convergence
– Common but differentiated convergence
– Multistage
– Triptych
– Proposal by the “South North Dialogue – Equity in the Greenhouse”
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Delayed participation
Contraction &
Convergence
Common but differentiated
convergence
GHG/cap
GHG/cap
IC
DC
Threshold
LDC
Time
Time
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Results towards 550 ppmv CO2
GHG per capita
25
USA
Towards 550
ppmv CO2:
Annex I
Non Annex I
World total
20
Threshold
Threshold:
30% above world
average,
15
EU 25
Argentina
Convergence
level:
4.5 tCO2eq/cap
Japan
10
S. Africa
5
China
India
Philippines
A1B scenario
Excl. LUCF CO2
Kenya
2100
2095
2090
2085
2080
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
0
1990
tCO2eq/cap
Saudi Arabia
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Results towards 550 ppmv CO2
GHG emissions
Towards 550
ppmv CO2:
12000
India
10000
Threshold:
30% above world
average,
China
8000
6000
Convergence
level:
4.5 tCO2eq/cap
EU 25
4000
A1B scenario
Excl. LUCF CO2
2000
Brazil
Japan
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2000
2010
Saudi Arabia
0
1990
MtCO 2eq
USA
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Results towards 450 ppmv CO2
GHG per capita
Towards 450
ppmv CO2:
10
Argentina
EU 25
USA
Annex I
9
Non Annex I
Saudi Arabia
World total
8
Threshold:
10% below world
average,
Threshold
S. Africa Japan
6
5
Convergence
level:
2.9 tCO2eq/cap
China
4
India
Philippines
3
2
1
A1B scenario
Excl. LUCF CO2
Kenya
2100
2095
2090
2085
2080
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
0
1990
tCO2eq/cap
7
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Results towards 450 ppmv CO2
GHG emissions
12000
Towards 450
ppmv CO2:
10000
Threshold:
10% below world
average,
8000
6000
China
EU 25
Convergence
level:
2.9 tCO2eq/cap
India
4000
2000
A1B scenario
Excl. LUCF CO2
Brazil
Japan
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2000
2010
Saudi Arabia
0
1990
MtCO 2eq
USA
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Multistage
Four stage emission reduction agreement
1.
2.
3.
4.
No commitments
Sustainable development policies and measures
Moderate emission limitation targets
Absolute emission reduction targets (shared according to
Triptych approach)
Threshold: Emissions/cap, decreasing over time
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Towards 550 ppmv CO2
50000
Stage 3
• Entry at 6-10 tCO2eq./cap
• 10%-15% below reference
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
0
1990
MtCO2eq.
Stage 4
• Entry at 9-12 tCO2eq./cap
• 1-5% reduction per year
EAsia
CPAsia
SAsia
ME
AFR
LAM
REEU
RAI
JPN
RUS+EEU
EU25
USA
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Time of entry towards 550 ppmv CO2
Annex I
Rest of Eastern Europe
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Venezuela
Rest of Latin America
Egypt
South Africa
Nigeria
Rest of North Africa
Rest of Africa
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Rest of Middle East
China
India
Indonesia
South Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Rest of Asia
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.4
4.6
4.7
2.1
2.4
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.5
3.7
2.8
3.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.5
4.7
4.7
1.7
1.8
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.8
3.3
3.8
1.8
2.3
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.8
4.2
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.7
1.3
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.5
2.9
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.8
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.7
3.3
2.3
2.5
2.7
3.2
3.5
3.7
4.0
4.3
4.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.3
2.5
2.8
1.3
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.8
3.3
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.3
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.5
4.7
4.7
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.5
4.7
4.7
2.2
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.0
1.0
1.5
1.7
2.2
2.5
2.7
2.8
3.2
4.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.8
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.0
2.3
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.5
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.7
2.0
3.0
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.5
4.7
1.5
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.0
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.8
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Towards 450 ppmv CO2
45000
Stage 3
• Entry at 3.5-4 tCO2eq./cap
• ~30% below reference
EAsia
CPAsia
SAsia
ME
AFR
LAM
REEU
RAI
JPN
RUS+EEU
EU25
USA
40000
35000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
0
1990
Stage 4
• Entry at 5-5.5 tCO2eq./cap
• ~5% reduction per year
MtCO2eq.
30000
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Time of entry towards 450 ppmv CO2
Annex I
Rest of Eastern Europe
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Venezuela
Rest of Latin America
Egypt
South Africa
Nigeria
Rest of North Africa
Rest of Africa
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Rest of Middle East
China
India
Indonesia
South Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Rest of Asia
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
2.6
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.6
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.3
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
3.0
3.8
4.0
4.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.3
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
2.4
2.7
2.8
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.8
3.9
4.0
1.8
2.0
2.8
3.3
3.7
3.8
4.7
4.8
5.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.7
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
1.0
1.0
1.7
2.0
2.5
3.3
3.7
4.3
4.7
2.2
2.3
2.8
3.4
3.4
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
2.8
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.9
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.7
3.7
4.2
4.7
5.0
5.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.3
3.2
3.3
3.8
4.0
4.3
1.0
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.7
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.7
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
3.2
3.7
3.8
4.2
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.0
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Towards 400 ppmv CO2
45000
Stage 3
• Entry at 3.5 tCO2eq./cap
• ~30% below reference
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
0
1990
MtCO2eq.
Stage 4
• Entry at 4 tCO2eq./cap
• ~8% reduction per year
EAsia
CPAsia
SAsia
ME
AFR
LAM
REEU
RAI
JPN
RUS+EEU
EU25
USA
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Time of entry towards 400 ppmv CO2
Annex I
Rest of Eastern Europe
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Venezuela
Rest of Latin America
Egypt
South Africa
Nigeria
Rest of North Africa
Rest of Africa
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Rest of Middle East
China
India
Indonesia
South Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Rest of Asia
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
4.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
2.6
3.4
3.5
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
3.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.3
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
2.5
3.1
3.3
3.9
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.6
1.8
2.0
2.7
3.7
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
1.0
1.0
1.7
2.5
3.3
4.0
4.8
5.0
5.0
2.2
2.7
3.1
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.8
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.8
2.1
2.5
3.0
3.3
3.7
3.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.3
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
2.8
3.6
3.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
3.0
3.7
3.7
4.7
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
1.0
1.5
2.3
3.0
3.3
4.3
4.8
5.0
5.0
1.0
1.7
2.3
3.0
3.2
3.8
4.2
4.5
4.7
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
1.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.7
3.8
4.3
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.7
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.2
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
Reference
120%
100%
80%
550ppm
60%
40%
20%
450ppm
0%
-20%
400/350ppm
-40%
-60%
-80%
2000
2010
Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only
2020
2030
2040
-100%
2050
Change to 1990
GtC
Stabilization pathways
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
120%
100%
80%
+50%
550ppm
60%
+45%
+30%
40%
20%
+10%
450ppm
0%
-25%
-20%
-40%
400/350ppm
-60%
-60%
-80%
2000
2010
Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only
2020
2030
2040
-100%
2050
Change to 1990
GtC
Stabilization pathways
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Change 1990 to 2020 towards 450 ppm CO2
450 ppmv 2020
50%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
40%
30%
300%
250%
20%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
450 ppmv 2020
200%
10%
150%
0%
100%
-10%
-20%
50%
EAsia
CPAsia
SAsia
ME
AFR
LAM
RAI
JPN
R+EEU
UK
GER
-50%
FRA
-50%
EU25
0%
USA
-40%
REEU
-30%
• Annex I: -10% to –30% below 1990
• No participation: South Asia and Africa.
• Deviate from their reference: Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and
Centrally planned Asia
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Change 1990 to 2050 towards 450 ppm CO2
450 ppmv 2050
60%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
40%
450 ppmv 2050
1000%
900%
800%
20%
700%
0%
600%
-20%
500%
400%
-40%
300%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
200%
-60%
• Annex I: -70% to -90% below 1990
• Substantial deviation from reference in all Non-Annex I regions
EAsia
CPAsia
SAsia
ME
AFR
LAM
RAI
JPN
R+EEU
UK
GER
-100%
FRA
-100%
EU25
0%
USA
-80%
REEU
100%
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Content
1. Introduction on options
climate policy post 2012
for
international
2. Interactive demonstration of the CAIT tool
developed by WRI
3. Interactive demonstration of the EVOC model
developed by Ecofys
4. Interactive demonstration of the FAIR
model developed by MNP/RIVM
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Backup slides
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Change 1990 to 2020 towards 550 ppm CO2
550 ppmv 2020
50%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
40%
30%
550 ppmv 2020
300%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
250%
20%
200%
10%
150%
0%
-10%
100%
-20%
EAsia
CPAsia
SAsia
ME
AFR
0%
LAM
RAI
JPN
R+EEU
UK
GER
FRA
EU25
USA
-40%
REEU
50%
-30%
• Annex I: -5% to –25% below 1990
• No participation: South Asia, Africa, Centrally Planned Asia or excess
allowances under C&C or Triptych
• Deviate from their reference: Latin America, Middle East and East Asia
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Change 1990 to 2050 towards 550 ppm CO2
550 ppmv 2050
60%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
40%
20%
550 ppmv 2050
1000%
900%
800%
700%
0%
600%
-20%
500%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
400%
-40%
300%
-60%
200%
-80%
100%
• Annex I: -40% to -80% below 1990
• Deviate from reference: Most Non-Annex I regions, except South Asia
• Triptych: more reductions for coal intensive countries under these
parameters
EAsia
CPAsia
SAsia
ME
AFR
LAM
-100%
REEU
RAI
JPN
R+EEU
UK
GER
FRA
USA
EU25
0%
-100%
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
120%
100%
80%
+50%
550ppm
60%
+45%
+30%
40%
20%
+10%
450ppm
0%
-25%
-20%
-40%
400/350ppm
-60%
-60%
-80%
2000
2010
Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only
2020
2030
2040
-100%
2050
Change to 1990
GtC
Stabilization pathways
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
120%
100%
80%
+50%
550ppm
60%
+45%
+30%
40%
20%
+10%
450ppm
0%
-25%
-20%
-40%
400/350ppm
-60%
-60%
-80%
2000
2010
Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only
2020
2030
2040
-100%
2050
Change to 1990
GtC
Stabilization pathways
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Change 1990 to 2020 towards 400 ppm CO2
400 ppmv 2020
50%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
30%
400 ppmv 2020
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
300%
250%
200%
10%
150%
-10%
100%
-30%
• Annex I: -25% to -50% below 1990
• No participation: only a very few countries
• Deviate from their reference: all Non-Annex I regions
EAsia
CPAsia
SAsia
ME
AFR
LAM
RAI
JPN
R+EEU
UK
GER
-50%
FRA
-70%
EU25
0%
USA
-50%
REEU
50%
Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity
Change 1990 to 2050 towards 400 ppm CO2
400 ppmv 2050
60%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
40%
400 ppmv 2050
1000%
900%
C&C
CDC
Mutistage
Triptych
Reference
800%
20%
700%
0%
600%
500%
-20%
400%
-40%
300%
200%
-60%
• Annex I: -80% to -90% below 1990
• Substantial deviation from reference in all Non-Annex I regions
EAsia
CPAsia
SAsia
ME
AFR
LAM
RAI
JPN
R+EEU
UK
GER
FRA
-100%
EU25
-100%
USA
0%
REEU
100%
-80%