Airplane Technology Presentation
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Transcript Airplane Technology Presentation
European Federation for Transport & Environment
Aviation and the environment:
status and technological prospects
Jos Dings
30 November 2004
About T&E
Members in:
Austria
Belgium
Czech &
Slovak Rep
Denmark
Estonia
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
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Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
Economic benefits of air transport into perspective
Contribution to EU economy (1998): approx.
1%
Contribution to EU employment (1998):
approx. 0.2%
Contribution to global warming (2000): ca
7% according to latest insights
Contribution to noise nuisance:
15-20% (Germany 2002)
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Global Warming due to aviation in 1992 (IPCC 1999)
Radiative forcing [mW/m2]
140
•49 mW/m2
120
100
(3.5% of total)
80
60
O3formation
contrails
40
Methane
reduction
20
0
-20
CO2
Cirrus
clouds
Total*
* Including other effects: water vapour directly, soot, sulfate
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Global Warming due to aviation in 2000 (AAC 2003)
Radiative forcing [mW/m2]
140
120
•116 mW/m2
100
(ca 7% of total)
80
O3formation
60
40
contrails
20
0
-20
CO2
Methane
reduction
Cirrus
clouds
Total*
* Including other effects: water vapour directly, soot, sulfate
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Climate change: baseline trends
Industry: 70% improvement has
been achieved per available seat
kilometre ….
… yes, but compared with 1st
generation jets
Meanwhile volume growth over 1000
%
1994: B777 with GE90 engine
Since then: no substantial further
improvements
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Overview fuel reduction technology
Engine
‘bleed air’ elimination
Pressure & bypass ratios
High-speed propeller ?
Drag
Aircraft shape
Wingspan and wingtips
grooves, cleaning
Weight
Design
Materials: composites e.g. GLARE
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New projects
2006: Airbus A380
Competes with Boeing 747-400
555 till even 800 seats
Approx. 10% more fuel efficient, half the noise ?
Wing span (80 x 80) and weight limit reductions
Boeing: 747A can compete (+3.5 m, +35 pax, 7E7
engine, decision 2005)
2008: Boeing 7E7; Airbus 350 ?
Compete with A330, B757/767
200-260 seats
Approx. 15% more fuel efficient ?
Airbus: A330 ‘light’ (+7E7 engines) can compete
Airbus A350 not yet official
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Boeing 7E7 ‘Dreamliner’: 15% better than competitors ?
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Airbus A380: 15% better than Boeing 747 ‘Jumbo Jet’ ?
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Reactions to CO2 + NOx charges in EU airspace
Total CO2 emissions some 115 Mtonnes
EUR 30/tonne CO2, EUR 3.6 per kg NOx ( =
approx. 12 ct/l)
Revenue raising:
Revenue neutral (feebate/rebate):
Reduces CO2 & NOx by approx. 9 & 10%
Demand and supply impacts equal
Revenues EUR 5 bln (35 EU budget)
Reduces CO2 & NOx by approx. 5 & 6%
Only supply-side effects
No revenues
Fleet renewal !!!!
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Two sources on supply-side (technology) responses
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Contrails and cirrus
Warm the earth probably more than
CO2
Depend on ambient & exhaust gas
temperature & humidity
New engines cause more !
Solution: Air Traffic Management
(EUROCONTROL !)
Military aircraft can avoid them for
visibility reasons)
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Alternative: hydrogen ?
Makes water and NOx emissions
probably worse
Much heavier aircraft, but lighter fuel
Hydrogen production ?
Many believe kerosene will be one of
last oil products
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Local air pollution
In particular: NOx and PM
Problem NOx : Modern engines: less
CO2, less PM, less HC, but more
NOx !
Problem PM: massive health issue
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NOx reduction potential
Main approach: improved
combustion chamber technology
Staged combustion
Variable airflow inlets
More revolutionary & most
promising:
Lean premixed pre-vaporised LPP
Rich burn Quick quench Lean burn (RQL)
Reduction up to 90% claimed
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NOx emission factors vs ICAO standards
NOx emission factor is growing, despite
regulation
100
100
80
60
80
CAEP/ 2-standard
CAEP/ 4-standard
60
CAEP/ 6-standard
[%]
40
40
(NASA forecast
for 2015)
20
20
ICAO-standard
(rel.)
0
0
year
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[%]
Fleet average
EI NOx (rel.)
Noise: lost opportunities
‘Chapter 4’ in place in 2006
Only 3 d(A) quieter than 1978
‘Chapter 3’ standards
2001: > 95% already complied
Best aircraft: six times quieter than
Ch.4
Airports now hold the key
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Aircraft can be much, much quieter !!!
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Trade-offs
Between CO2 and NOx :
Between CO2 and contrails/cirrus
Low temp. exhaust gas -> more contrails
Between CO2 and noise
High pressure ratio engines
Steep climb = more fuel
In policy discussions:
Favourite hobby of industry
Less serious than often thought
correct incentives ALL impacts needed
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The future perspective, climate
Growth stays at 4-5%/yr
Climate BaU
CO2: 1% p.a. improvement, 3-4% growth
Contrails/cirrus: > 5% p.a. growth ?.
Climate technically feasible
CO2 improvement up to 2% p.a. ?
Contrails/cirrus: avoidance largeley
feazible
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The future perspective, noise & NOx
NOx
BaU: no improvement, > 5% p.a. growth ?
Incentives: large improvements possible
Noise:
BaU: improvement smaller than growth
Incentives: improvement feasible !
Co-ordinated efforts by airports
(noise charges, noise ceilings)
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European Federation for Transport & Environment
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T&E is Europe’s primary NGO campaigning on a
Europe wide level for an environmentally
responsible approach to transport. [email protected]
Rue de la Pépinière 1 | 1000 Brussels
Tel.: +32 2-502 99 09 | Fax: +32 2-502 99 08 | www.t-e.nu