Transcript Document

An Overview of Retention and
Graduation Rates at UK
Roger P. Sugarman, Ph.D.
Director of Institutional Research
April 13, 2007
Organization of the Presentation




Efforts to Improve Retention: The Context
Past Efforts to Understand Why Students Leave UK
Admission Criteria and Academic Credentials
Student Outcomes




Relevant Survey Data





Cumulative first-year grades
DEW Rates
Retention and graduation rates
Expected odds of being successful
Time spent studying/doing homework
Perceived academic challenge
Overall satisfaction with UK
Concluding thoughts on understanding and improving
retention at UK
Thoughts on Retention Rates




Retention rates are widely regarded as an
indicator of institutional effectiveness
Low retention rates may indicate that an
institution has difficulty meeting students’
needs and expectations
Half of all students who fail to earn a
bachelor’s degree drop out either during or just
after their first year
UK’s retention rate for the 2004 cohort, tied
for last among its benchmarks, is 14
percentage-points below the median rate
Retention Rates at UK’s Benchmark Institutions
The Fall 2004 Cohort
University of Kentucky 79%
Michigan St.
North Carolina St.
Ohio St.
Penn St.
Purdue
Texas A&M
Arizona
UCLA
Florida
Georgia
91%
89%
90%
93%
84%
92%
79%
97%
94%
93%
Illinois
Iowa
Maryland
Michigan
Minnesota
North Carolina
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin
93%
84%
93%
96%
87%
96%
97%
93%
94%
Source: CSRDE; data are for internal planning and policy development purposes only.
Thoughts on Graduation Rates

The graduation rate for UK’s 1999 cohort is
second to last among its benchmark
institutions

UK’s graduation rate is 16 percentage-points
below the benchmarks’ median rate

Six of UK’s benchmarks have graduation rates
that exceed our retention rate!
Graduation Rates at UK’s Benchmark Institutions
The Fall 1999 Cohort
University of Kentucky 60%
Michigan St.
North Carolina St.
Ohio St.
Penn St.
Purdue
Texas A&M
Arizona
UCLA
Florida
Georgia
76%
70%
68%
86%
67%
77%
59%
87%
79%
73%
Illinois
Iowa
Maryland
Michigan
Minnesota
North Carolina
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin
80%
66%
76%
87%
61%
84%
93%
74%
78%
Source: CSRDE; data are for internal planning and policy development purposes only.
The 2004 Retention Study
Phase I: National Students Clearinghouse Search
Phase II: Analysis of the Status of Non-Returning Students
Phase III: Telephone Survey of Non-Returning Students
Results of the National Student
Clearinghouse Database Search

Over 90% of the nation’s colleges furnish
enrollment data to the NSC database

The study focused initially on 3,718 first-time,
first-year students from the Fall 2002 cohort

IR staff found that 865 students (23%) did not
return to UK for their sophomore year

The NSC was able to find records that 619 of
these 865 students had transferred

Nearly half of the transfers had enrolled at:
LCC (131), UofL (63), NKU (38), JCC (32), and
WKU (29)
The Fall 2002 Cohort of First-Year Students:
Collegiate Status in 2003-04
Returned to
UK
76.7%
Transferred
16.7%
Not Enrolled
6.6%
Other KY
Institutions
12.4%
Out-of-State
Institutions
4.3%
Source: UK Office of Institutional Research and National Student Clearinghouse
Academic Status of First-Year Students
Who Left UK During or After Their First Year
Probation
16.6%
Probation
(suspen. pending)
4.8%
Good
Standing
48.5%
Suspension
30.1%
OIR/SRC Telephone Survey of
Non-Returning First-Year Students

Survey targeted 583 first-year students who
were either in good standing or on probation

SRC staff eventually contacted 293 of these
students

250 students consented to be interviewed,
which constitutes a response rate of 85%.
Students’ Most Important
Reasons for Leaving UK
17.4%
Wanted to be closer to home
15.0%
Too expensive
13.8%
School too large/classes too big
Changed major
Problems at home
8.5%
6.1%
Other reasons
0%
39.2%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
“I would recommend UK to another
student as a good place to go to school”
60%
46.7%
50%
43.1%
40%
30%
20%
10%
4.1%
6.1%
0%
Strongly
disagree
Somewhat
disagree
Somewhat
agree
Strongly
agree
What are students’ reasons for
transferring to their new institution?

Students’ most important reasons for transferring
were highly consistent with their reasons for
leaving UK

Relative to UK, students reported that their new
institution . . .
 was closer to home (42.0%)
 was less expensive (9.8%)
 offered a program/major not at UK (9.8%)
 was smaller in size (7.3%)
Trends in the Academic Credentials
of Incoming First-year Cohorts
Applied, Admitted and Enrolled
Fall 2000 – Fall 2006
12,000
10,000
Applied
8,318
6,644
10515
8,141
8,123
10,024
9,418
8,449
8,879
8,000
6,000
10,608
6,914
7,250
7,603
8,073
Admitted
4,000
2,000
2,928
3,037
4,190
3,718
3,688
3,961
3,835
2002
2003
2004
2005
Enrolled
0
2000
2001
2006
First-year Student Profile: 1997 - 2006
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Governor’s Scholars/School for the Arts
Valedictorians
National Merit Scholars
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Applicants, Admitted and Enrolled Students
Percent with HS GPA above 3.0
By Race/Ethnicity
Black
Applied
White
Other
2005
2006
2005
2006
2005
2006
57.9%
57.2%
83.1%
83.3%
79.4%
80.7%
Note: students who did not present HS GPAs are excluded from percentages.
Applicants, Admitted and Enrolled Students
Percent with HS GPA above 3.0
By Race/Ethnicity
Black
White
Other
2005
2006
2005
2006
2005
2006
Applied
57.9%
57.2%
83.1%
83.3%
79.4%
80.7%
Admitted
72.1%
66.5%
88.0%
85.1%
86.7%
84.4%
Note: students who did not present HS GPAs are excluded from percentages.
Applicants, Admitted and Enrolled Students
Percent with HS GPA above 3.0
By Race/Ethnicity
Black
White
Other
2005
2006
2005
2006
2005
2006
Applied
57.9%
57.2%
83.1%
83.3%
79.4%
80.7%
Admitted
72.1%
66.5%
88.0%
85.1%
86.7%
84.4%
Enrolled
61.6%
69.5%
89.8%
83.5%
85.1%
77.6%
Note: students who did not present HS GPAs are excluded from percentages.
Applicants, Admitted and Enrolled Students
Percent with HS GPA above 3.0
By Race/Ethnicity
Black
White
Other
2005
2006
2005
2006
2005
2006
Applied
57.9%
57.2%
83.1%
83.3%
79.4%
80.7%
Admitted
72.1%
66.5%
88.0%
85.1%
86.7%
84.4%
Enrolled
61.6%
69.5%
89.8%
83.5%
85.1%
77.6%
Note: students who did not present HS GPAs are excluded from percentages.
High School GPAs
1997 – 2006 Cohorts
3.60
3.56
3.56
3.55
3.53
3.51
3.53
3.50
3.45
3.45
3.49
3.50
3.48
3.46
3.40
3.35
3.30
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: Office of Institutional Research
ACT Composite Scores
1999 – 2006 Cohorts
25th/75th Percentile
2006 21/26
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
22/27
21/27
22/27
21/26
21/26
21/26
22/27
26
25
24
24.6
24.3
24.0
24.1
2000
2001
24.3
24.2
2003
2004
23.9
23.8
23
22
21
20
1999
2002
Note: Some students submit SAT scores rather than ACT scores.
These students’ scores are not reflected in the table and graph.
2005
2006
Selective Admissions Criteria
Fall 2005 - Fall 2006
In the selective admissions process, students must meet one of the
four sets of criteria below:

3.50 HS GPA and 20 or above on ACT

3.00 – 3.49 HS GPA and 21 or above on ACT

2.50 – 2.99 HS GPA and 22 or above on ACT

2.00 – 2.49 HS GPA and 28 or above on ACT
Students who do not meet the above criteria may be admitted
through the competitive admissions process
Competitive vs. Selective Pool: Fall 2005 - 2006
2005
Competitive
Selective
Entire Cohort
2006
Count
313
788
% of Cohort
8.18
19.14
HS GPA
Mean
3.06
2.97
ACT
Mean
19.86
19.48
First Fall GPA
Mean
2.07
1.87
Count
3513
3330
% of Cohort
91.82
80.86
HS GPA
Mean
3.60
3.60
ACT
Mean
25.19
25.08
First Fall GPA
Mean
2.86
2.81
3826
4118
100.00
100.00
Count
% of Cohort
HS GPA
Mean
3.56
3.48
ACT
Mean
24.75
24.01
First Fall GPA
Mean
2.79
2.63
Competitive vs. Selective Pool
Retention Rates Graduation Rates
(2000 – 2005)
(1994 – 2000)
Competitive
Pool
67.5%
42.4%
Selective
Pool
79.7%
60.3%
Note: Retention and graduation rates were modeled using current admission criteria
Student Outcomes:
Grades, Retention and
Graduation Rates
First-semester GPAs by Sex
Fall 2001 – Fall 2006
3.0
2.5
2.79
2.54
2.82
2.62
2.89
2.62
2.86
2001
2002
2003
2004
Female
Male
2.54
2.92
2.65
2.74
2.51
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2005
2006
First-semester GPAs by Race/Ethnicity
Fall 2001 – Fall 2006
3.0
2.5
2.70
2.54
2.65
2.39
2.74
2.28
2.83 2.79
2.23
2.73 2.76
2.15
2.70
2.83
2.20
2.59 2.66
2.31
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2001
2002
2003
African American
2004
Other
2005
White
2006
DEW Rates in Selected Courses
for Fall 2006 First-Year Students
50%
40%
5%
30%
10%
5%
13%
8%
6%
22%
4%
20%
10%
11%
4%
5%
8%
0%
7%
7%
23%
2%
13%
16%
10%
25%
15%
9%
5%
7%
1%
15%
8%
2%
5%
11%
8%
7%
5%
BIO CHE CHE ENG GEO GEO HIS MA MA MA PSY
102 104 105 104 130 160 108 108R 109 123 100
D
E
W
Percent of Cohort Qualifying for Suspension or
Probation Based on Their First Fall Semester GPA
25%
20%
15%
16.1%
15.6%
14.5%
14.8%
13.4%
3.8%
3.3%
3.9%
4.2%
2001
2002
2003
2004
10%
13.7%
5%
5.4%
2.9%
0%
0.00-0.59
0.60-1.99
2005
2006
Percent of African American Student Cohorts
Qualifying for Suspension or Probation
Based on Their First Fall Semester GPA
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
N = 261
N = 151
N = 202
N = 165
N = 142
N = 286
29.9%
28.2%
31.1%
25.4%
27.3%
5.3%
4.3%
2001
2002
6.9%
2003
0.00-0.59
9.2%
2004
0.60-1.99
24.1%
7.0%
7.0%
2005
2006
Student Success Measures
First-Semester Grade Point Average by H.S. GPA Range:
2000 - 2006 Cohorts
3.500
3.250
3.000
2.750
2.500
2.250
2.000
1.750
1.500
1.250
1.000
In good
academic
standing
2.00 - 2.49
2.50 - 2.99
3.00 - 3.49
High School GPA
3.50 - 3.99
4.0 and above
Student Success Measures
First-Semester Grade Point Average by ACT Scores*:
2000 - 2006 Cohorts
3.500
3.250
3.000
2.750
2.500
2.250
2.000
1.750
1.500
1.250
1.000
In good
academic
standing
17 and under
18 - 20
21 - 22
23 - 24
ACT Composite Scores*
*Note: includes converted SAT Scores
25 - 27
28 and over
Retention Rates: 1996 Cohort – 2005 Cohort
84%
82%
80.3%
79.8%
79.3%
80%
78.4%
78%
76%
78.9%
78.9%
77.9%
77.7%
1996 1997 1998 1999
2000 2001
77.1%
77.8%
74%
72%
70%
68%
2002
2003 2004 2005
Note: Retention rates reported here may differ slightly from other sources due to
minor differences in reporting criteria.
Figure 4: Retention Rates by Initially Declared College
Fall 2005 Cohort
Agriculture
65.0%
Arts & Sciences
11.4%
71.0%
Business &Economics
10.1%
66.0%
Com. & Info. Studies
14.1%
69.1%
Design
7.9%
59.6%
Education
23.5%
70.7%
Engineering
5.5%
56.2%
Fine Arts
23.3%
65.8%
Health Sciences
14.2%
65.1%
Nursing
23.6%
55.1%
Social Work
8.2%
64.3%
University Studies
7.1%
47.5%
0%
10%
20%
28.8%
30%
40%
Retained within College
50%
60%
70%
Retained within University
80%
90%
Student Success Measures
First-to-Second Year Retention Rates by H.S. GPA:
2000 - 2005 Cohorts
95%
90%
85%
Strategic
Plan
Indicator
80%
75%
70%
65%
Most
Recent
Ret. Rate
60%
55%
50%
2.0 - 2.49
2.50 - 2.99
3.00 - 3.49
3.50 - 3.99
4.00 and above
Academic Credentials and Outcomes
for the Past Seven UK Cohorts
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Admit Rate
79.9%
81.8%
81.7%
80.7%
76.7%
77.3%
80.5%
Yield Rate
44.1%
43.9%
51.3%
48.5%
48.7%
47.2%
51.9%
HS GPA
3.49
3.53
3.50
3.56
3.53
3.56
3.48
ACT
24.2
24.3
24.0
24.5
24.4
24.7
24.0
Spring to
Fall Rate
91.1%
91.6%
90.8%
91.8%
91.2%
90.9%
89.4%*
78.4
78.9
77.8
?
Fall to
77.7
79.3
77.1
Fall Rate
* Based on preliminary enrollment data
Academic Credentials and Outcomes
for the Past Seven UK Cohorts
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Admit Rate
79.9%
81.8%
81.7%
80.7%
76.7%
77.3%
80.5%
Yield Rate
44.1%
43.9%
51.3%
48.5%
48.7%
47.2%
51.9%
HS GPA
3.49
3.53
3.50
3.56
3.53
3.56
3.48
ACT
24.2
24.3
24.0
24.5
24.4
24.7
24.0
Spring to
Fall Rate
91.1%
91.6%
90.8%
91.8%
91.2%
90.9%
89.4%*
78.4
78.9
77.8
?
Fall to
77.7
79.3
77.1
Fall Rate
* Based on preliminary enrollment data
Retention and Graduation Rates by HS GPA,
ACT and First-term Credit Hour Load
Admissions Group
3.5 or above HS GPA
And
20 or higher ACT
12 - 14
SCH
15 -17
SCH
18+
SCH
Under 3.5 HS GPA
Or
Less than 20 ACT
Note: Retention rates averaged from fall 2000 – 2005 cohorts;
Graduation rates averaged from fall 1994 – 2000 cohorts.
Retention and Graduation Rates by HS GPA,
ACT and First-term Credit Hour Load
Admissions Group
3.5 or above HS GPA
And
20 or higher ACT
Under 3.5 HS GPA
Or
Less than 20 ACT
12 - 14
SCH
15 -17
SCH
18+
SCH
79.6%
86.5%
89.6%
61.1%
72.9%
70.3%
Note: Retention rates averaged from fall 2000 – 2005 cohorts;
Graduation rates averaged from fall 1994 – 2000 cohorts.
Retention and Graduation Rates by HS GPA,
ACT and First-term Credit Hour Load
Admissions Group
3.5 or above HS GPA
And
20 or higher ACT
12 - 14
SCH
15 -17
SCH
18+
SCH
79.6%
61.1%
86.5%
70.7%
89.6%
75.0%
Under 3.5 HS GPA
Or
Less than 20 ACT
61.1%
39.2%
72.9%
50.8%
70.3%
49.1%
Note: Retention rates averaged from fall 2000 – 2005 cohorts;
Graduation rates averaged from fall 1994 – 2000 cohorts.
Retention Rates by Course Completion Scenarios
Status of Courses
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Passed all classes
91.2% 88.9% 90.0% 90.7% 87.3%
Overall Rates
79.3% 77.2% 78.4% 78.9% 77.8%
Retention Rates by Course Completion Scenarios
Status of Courses
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Passed all classes
91.2% 88.9% 90.0% 90.7% 87.3%
Passed 1+/W 1+
86.9% 88.9% 84.5% 90.0% 81.7%
Overall Rates
79.3% 77.2% 78.4% 78.9% 77.8%
Retention Rates by Course Completion Scenarios
Status of Courses
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Passed all classes
91.2% 88.9% 90.0% 90.7% 87.3%
Passed 1+/W 1+
86.9% 88.9% 84.5% 90.0% 81.7%
Passed 1+/D or E 1+
73.7% 74.4% 73.7% 72.9% 75.2%
Overall Rates
79.3% 77.2% 78.4% 78.9% 77.8%
Retention Rates by Course Completion Scenarios
Status of Courses
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Passed all classes
91.2% 88.9% 90.0% 90.7% 87.3%
Passed 1+/W 1+
86.9% 88.9% 84.5% 90.0% 81.7%
Passed 1+/Failed 1+
73.7% 74.4% 73.7% 72.9% 75.2%
Passed 1+/W 1+/D or E 1+
68.9% 60.6% 67.5% 69.0% 67.2%
Overall Rates
79.3% 77.2% 78.4% 78.9% 77.8%
Retention Rates by Course Completion Scenarios
Status of Courses
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Passed all classes
91.2% 88.9% 90.0% 90.7% 87.3%
Passed 1+/W 1+
86.9% 88.9% 84.5% 90.0% 81.7%
Passed 1+/D or E 1+
73.7% 74.4% 73.7% 72.9% 75.2%
Passed 1+/W 1+/D or E 1+
68.9% 60.6% 67.5% 69.0% 67.2%
Only DEW outcomes
6.0%
Overall Rates
79.3% 77.2% 78.4% 78.9% 77.8%
3.6%
10.9% 8.3%
4.7%
Retention Rates by Course Completion Scenarios
Status of Courses
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Passed all classes
91.2% 88.9% 90.0% 90.7% 87.3%
Passed 1+/W 1+
86.9% 88.9% 84.5% 90.0% 81.7%
Passed 1+/Failed 1+
73.7% 74.4% 73.7% 72.9% 75.2%
Passed 1+/W 1+/Failed 1+
68.9% 60.6% 67.5% 69.0% 67.2%
W 1+/Failed 1+
6.0%
Overall Rates
79.3% 77.2% 78.4% 78.9% 77.8%
3.6%
10.9% 8.3%
4.7%
Graduation Rates: 1991 Cohort – 2000 Cohort
62%
61.1%
59.8%
60%
58%
59.6%
57.2%
59.1%
57.7%
56%
54%
53.0%
52%
55.3%
50.8%
50%
48%
46%
48.2%
1991 1992 1993 1994
1995 1996
1997
1998 1999 2000
Note: Graduation rates reported here may differ slightly from other sources due to minor
differences in reporting criteria.
Figure 5: Graduation Rates by Initially Declared College
Fall 2000 Cohort
Agriculture*
42.3%
Arts & Sciences
19.7%
39.3%
20.6%
Business & Economics
47.7%
Com. & Info. Studies
46.7%
Design**
13.5%
11.3%
38.0%
Education
28.2%
40.9%
Engineering
20.8%
30.9%
Fine Arts
26.2%
42.2%
Health Sciences
17.3%
12.7%
50.8%
Nursing
53.1%
Social Work
15.7%
85.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Graduated from College
40%
0.0%
50%
Graduated from University
60%
70%
80%
90%
Student Success Measures
Graduation Rates by High School GPA:
1996 - 1999 Cohorts
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
Strategic
Plan
Indicator
Most
Recent
Grad Rate
2.00 - 2.49
2.50 - 2.99
3.00 - 3.49
3.50 - 3.99
4.00 and above
Retention Rates by Region
2000 – 2005 Average: 78.2%
Lowest



Out-of-state 75.0%
Appalachian 76.7%
Central KY 77.7%
Highest



Northern KY 81.1%
Other KY Ctys. 80.3%
Louisville Metro 79.7%
Retention Rates by High School Attended
2000 – 2005 Average: 78.2%
Lowest





Scott Cty 73.8%
G.R. Clark 75.9%
South Oldham 76.5%
Trinity 77.5%
Henry Clay 77.7%
Highest








Notre Dame 90.0%
Sacred Heart 88.4%
Eastern 85.3%
Dupont Manual 84.9%
St. Xavier 84.5%
Larry Riley 83.7%
Daviess Cty 83.6%
Male 83.3%
Graduation Rates by Region
1994 – 2000 Average: 58.3%
Lowest



Appalachian 52.9%
Central KY 55.1%
Out-of-state 56.3%
Highest



Northern KY 66.9%
Other KY Ctys. 62.5%
Louisville Metro 59.8%
Graduation Rates by High School Attended
1994 – 2000 Average: 58.3%
Lowest




G.R. Clark 44.4%
Woodford Cty 51.8%
Scott Cty 51.9%
Jessamine Cty 54.7%
Highest








Notre Dame 77.4%
Sacred Heart 73.3%
Dixie Heights 72.4%
Daviess Cty 72.2%
Highlands 69.0%
Assumption 68.5%
Ballard 67.1%
Male 66.3%
Recent Research Undertaken by the
Office of Institutional Research
Regression Model Designed to Explain
Students’ Grades and Retention


Models were based on demographic data, academic
credentials and information obtained from the fall
Survey of First-year Students
Because samples and data sometimes have ‘oddities,’
IR staff . . .




started by randomly taking 90% of the total sample and
developing a model from the observed data
then repeated this procedure 1,000 times to develop a final
model that captured the variables that appeared most
frequently
The GPA model explained 36% of the variance in
students’ grades
The logistic retention model produced a ‘Maximum
Re-scaled R-Square’ of .33
Regression Model Designed to Explain
Students’ First-Semester GPAs
Grades were positively associated with . . .








High school GPAs
ACT Composite scores
Being female
Participation in UK 101
The distance between a students’ home and UK
The number of hours students reported studying or doing
homework during their HS senior year
Self-reported ‘drive to achieve’
Students’ level of identification with being a good student
Regression Model Designed to Explain
Students’ First-Semester GPAs
Grades were negatively associated with . . .





Being a first-generation college student
The number of hours students planned to be
employed during their first term
Intentions to join a fraternity or sorority
Self-reported procrastination tendencies
Self-reported ‘serious financial difficulties’ during
the previous year
Regression Model Designed to Explain
Fall-to-Fall Retention
Retention was positively associated with . . .
 Cumulative fall, first-year GPA
 Family income
 Number of AP Courses taken
 Being female
 Students’ level of identification with being a
good student
Regression Model Designed to Explain
Fall-to-Fall Retention
Retention was negatively associated with . . .






Self-reported involvement in a serious romantic
relationship during the previous year
Self-reported serious financial difficulties during
the previous year
The number of hours students planned to be
employed during their first term
The distance between a students’ home and UK
Being African American
First-generation student status
Selected Results of Surveys Conducted by
the Institutional Research Office
How important are students’
expectations for the academic
demands of college-level work?
Unrealistic Expectations about
Academic Life at UK?
On a scale of 1 to 10, what is your chance of
earning a 3.0 GPA or better your first year
at UK?
Unrealistic Expectations about
Academic Life at UK?
On a scale of 1 to 10, what is your chance of
earning a 3.0 GPA or better your first year
at UK?
Expectation: One-half (48%) of first-year
students rate their chances of earning a B
average as a ‘9’ or ’10’
Unrealistic Expectations about
Academic Life at UK?
On a scale of 1 to 10, what is your chance of
earning a 3.0 GPA or better your first year
at UK?
Expectation: One-half (48%) of first-year
students rate their chances of earning a B
average as a ‘9’ or ’10’
Fact: Over the past five years, the average
first-year GPA has ranged from 2.75 – 2.81
Unrealistic Expectations about
Academic Life at UK?
On a scale of 1 to 10, what is your chance of
graduating from UK in four years?
Unrealistic Expectations about
Academic Life at UK?
On a scale of 1 to 10, what is your chance of
graduating from UK in four years?
Expectation: Over half (56%) of first-year
students rate their chances of graduating in
four years as a ‘9’ or ’10’
Unrealistic Expectations about
Academic Life at UK?
On a scale of 1 to 10, what is your chance of
graduating from UK in four years?
Expectation: Over half (56%) of first-year
students rate their chances of graduating in
four years as a ‘9’ or ’10’
Fact: Over the past five years, the four-year
graduation rate has ranged from 27.1% to
30.0%
Hours Reported Studying/Doing Homework in a Typical
Week During the HS Senior Year and Freshman Year
60%
52%
50%
40%
30%
26%
20%
13%
10%
5%
4%
0%
Less than 1
1-5
6-10
11-15
Source: First-year Surveys conducted in Fall 2005 and Spring 2006
More than 15
Hours Reported Studying/Doing Homework in a Typical
Week During the HS Senior Year and Freshman Year
60%
52%
50%
40%
30%
36%
33%
26%
20%
18%
13%
10%
0%
12%
5%
1%
Less than 1
1-5
6-10
11-15
Source: First-year Surveys conducted in Fall 2005 and Spring 2006
4%
More than 15
High School GPAs
1997 – 2006 Cohorts
3.60
3.56
3.56
3.55
3.53
3.51
3.53
3.50
3.45
3.45
3.49
3.50
3.48
3.46
3.40
3.35
3.30
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: Office of Institutional Research
Self-reported Academic Challenge During
the HS Senior Year and Freshman Year at UK
60%
48%
50%
40%
30%
20%
27%
15%
10%
10%
0%
Not at all
Challenging
Somewhat
Challenging
Challenging
Very Challenging
Source: First-year Surveys conducted in Fall 2005 and Spring 2006
Self-reported Academic Challenge During
the HS Senior Year and Freshman Year at UK
60%
58%
48%
50%
40%
30%
20%
26%
27%
15%
15%
10%
10%
0%
1%
Not at all
Challenging
Somewhat
Challenging
Challenging
Very Challenging
Source: First-year Surveys conducted in Fall 2005 and Spring 2006
How well did UK students do relative to their
peers at like institutions on NSSE 2005?


UK seniors did not differ significantly from their
peers on the five benchmarks
UK first-year students . . .
 Did not differ from their counterparts on the
“Level of Academic Challenge” and “StudentFaculty Interaction” benchmarks
 Performed significantly below their peers on:

Active and Collaborative Learning (effect size = -.33)
Enriching Educational Experiences (effect size = -.41)

Supportive Campus Environment (effect size = -.22)

Satisfaction with the Entire Educational Experience
4.0
UK
3.5
3.06
3.16
3.0
2.97
3.15
Doc.-Ext
3.13 3.21
3.05
3.18
3.18
3.06
3.17
3.06
First-Year
Senior
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
First-Year
2001
Senior
First-Year
Senior
2003
Source: National Survey of Student Engagement
2005
Thoughts on Retention
From fall 2005 to 2006…



The number of students presenting HS GPAs of 2.00 –
2.49 tripled (49 to 150)
 Two-thirds (98) of the fall 2006 students with these
credentials are either on probation or have been
suspended
The number students presenting HS GPAs of 2.5-2.99
increased by 58% (350 to 553)
 Just under half (254) of these students are on either
probation or have been suspended
In sum, of the 703 students admitted with HS GPA less
than 3.0, half of them were either suspended or on
probation after their first term
Thoughts on Retention

The average incoming HS GPA, incoming ACT
scores, and first fall GPA are lower for the 2006
cohort than any cohort between 2001-2006

The fall 2006 African-American cohort is not only
the largest but also the best prepared academically
of all AA cohorts between 2001-2006.

The less-academically-prepared class of 2006 is
somewhat attributable to increases in the
admittance and yield rates for less-academicallyprepared white students
Penultimate Thoughts on Retention



The present admissions criteria “matrix” is flawed
A ‘high’ ACT score and ‘low’ HS GPA do not
predict the same level of success as a ‘low’ ACT
score and ‘high’ HS GPA
A regression model that statistically weights GPA
and ACT scores—accompanied by a systematic
and testable way of deciding borderline cases—
offers the best chance of increasing UK’s retention
and graduation rates
Final Thoughts:
Where do we (still!) go from here?
Communicating expectations to high school
students and their parents about the demands
of college-level work
 Developing and improving UK’s learning
communities
 Analyzing the effectiveness of admission
criteria, including ‘global’ questions appearing
on the application
 Developing an ‘early warning system’ for
academically at-risk students

UK Office of Institutional Research
For more information . . .
Roger Sugarman, Ph.D.
Director of Institutional Research
University of Kentucky
[email protected]
Phone: 257-7989
www.uky.edu/IR/