Transcript Changes in Medina County Voters

Predicting Changes in
Medina County
How Demographic Changes Might Affect
Public Safety Forces
Stephen D. Hambley, Ph.D.
Medina County Commissioner
2/3/06
Feel a little like a TV Weatherman
making a 7 day forecast…
Gather best possible data in shortest amount of time
Access the wealth of talent and experience available at
minimal cost
Utilize best scientific methodology practical to predict
changes
Write down and communicate brief presentation that is
informative and entertaining
Hope that no one remembers what I predict a week
from now
Unless I am right
What is Happening in Medina County
Medina County is….
Gaining in population and new houses
Getting older
Getting wealthier
Experiencing local manifestations of national Tax
Revolt
Medina County Population Continues to
Grow Faster Than Predicted
230,000
210,000
206,770
2004 Population Estimate
by US Census
190,000
198,470
191,850
181,890
165,077
170,000
173,760
161,670
151,096
150,000
135,861
130,000
122,354
113,150
110,000
115,900
98,600
90,000
82,717
70,000
50,000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Historical
2005
2010
2015
Projected
2020
2025
2030
New Home Construction Medina County 1975-2005
MEDINA COUNTY ONLY – BRUNSWICK, MEDINA & WADSWORTH DATA NOT INCLUDED
New Dwelling Permits
Mortgage Rate
800
16
14
12
10
600
400
200
0
372
522
684
634
429
208
125
91
206
161
205
331
451
465
461
522
568
661
729
697
625
654
577
666
774
801
871
901
1020
1021
915
New House Permits
1000
18
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
SOURCE: MEDINA COUNTY BUILDING DEPARTMENT;
FEDERAL HOME MORTGAGE CORPORATION
8
6
4
2
0
30 Yr Mortgage Rate
1200
Medina County Planning Commission
Dwelling Units Approved at Preliminary Plan & Final Plat
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,200
1,848
1,382
800
984
600
400
584
634
1,175
1,332
1,664
467
748
847
1,122
840
1,051
657
670
455
559
1,000
200
-
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
Preliminary Plan
Final Plat
2003
2004
2005
Dwelling Units
1,400
Trend of New Home Construction in Medina County
Residential New Construction
1999 to 2005
Year
# of Houses
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
774
801
871
901
1020
1021
915
Average
Construction Cost
$175,863.00
$192,202.00
$179,111.80
$184,618.00
$202,919.00
$211,872.00
$225,602.00
SOURCE: MEDINA COUNTY BUILDING DEPARTMENT
28% Cost
Increase since
1999
In-Migration
An Important Factor in Our Recent Growth
SOURCE: Office of Strategic Research,Ohio Department of Development
Where are all the people coming from?
One Major Contributor: Cuyahoga County
Table A1: Net Household Migration, Cuyahoga County With:
Year
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
Total
Ashtabula Geauga
50
55
39
27
75
37
18
-4
7
304
208
260
255
234
287
239
201
291
244
2,219
Lake
542
495
630
430
439
434
519
522
563
4,574
Lorain
317
526
443
427
589
529
657
848
764
5,100
Outside
Medina Portage Summit Regional
Region
Sum
730
222
666
2,735
1,752
699
243
729
3,007
1,786
636
222
665
2,890
1,023
689
244
687
2,738
2,711
698
214
795
3,097
1,736
698
198
760
2,895
1,914
906
238
602
3,141
1,353
755
210
725
3,347
2,336
889
253
856
3,576
2,878
6,700
2,044
6,485
27,426
17,489
Income Transfers Associated With Household Migration From Cuyahoga County, RW Layton, NOACA
Data Source: IRS
Total
4,487
4,793
3,913
5,449
4,833
4,809
4,494
5,683
6,454
44,915
The Households Migrating To Medina County are
Considerably Wealthier Than Those Moving Into
Cuyahoga County from Medina County
Table A2: Median Income Difference, Cuyahoga
County Household Migration With:
Year
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
Average
Ashtabula Geauga
5,664
6,096
180
10,722
403
7,810
8,585
9,727
7,896
12,587
4,397
11,493
6,354
10,870
2,009
10,963
4,453
10,059
4,438
10,036
(in 2001 dollars)
Lake
Lorain
Medina Portage Summit
3,954
7,452
9,697
6,378
6,405
2,213
7,160
11,508
3,059
6,365
2,660
6,629
10,374
3,449
8,196
1,304
5,774
8,612
4,422
5,909
984
7,331
7,495
6,667
6,360
1,470
7,015
7,624
2,804
5,357
2,000
8,526
9,435
4,674
5,382
387
9,519
9,575
2,131
7,182
1,985
9,693
10,703
4,758
5,230
1,884
7,678
9,447
4,260
6,265
Income Transfers Associated With Household Migration From Cuyahoga County, RW
Layton, NOACA
Data Source: IRS
Medina County is Not Alone in Gaining Wealthy Households
Table A3: Household Income Transfer, Cuyahoga County With:
Year
Ashtabula
1992-93
1,902,262
1993-94
2,979,850
1994-95
1,459,484
1995-96
2,564,695
1996-97
3,125,316
1997-98
2,107,249
1998-99
1,703,049
1999-00
677,362
2000-01
770,000
Total 17,289,267
Geauga
7,324,507
21,098,818
22,108,389
26,674,640
31,579,010
30,616,134
16,727,400
35,543,440
19,576,000
211,248,338
(in 2001 dollars)
Lake
Lorain
26,870,835
26,000,038
23,791,065
29,845,042
28,785,295
31,954,094
21,633,336
29,449,389
21,025,152
38,670,691
23,691,699
41,905,199
26,562,061
50,351,765
24,558,223
65,474,161
30,495,000
66,295,000
227,412,665
379,945,379
Medina
39,423,803
42,783,581
37,215,672
44,388,091
41,237,876
42,383,677
54,709,536
52,508,409
55,617,000
410,267,647
Portage
Summit
13,458,107 39,070,579
12,522,053 37,155,639
12,850,661 40,989,879
12,710,545 43,499,313
14,241,708 53,719,324
10,490,881 58,999,729
14,710,659 49,235,827
11,795,576 49,594,826
14,309,000 68,550,000
117,089,191 440,815,116
Income Transfers Associated With Household Migration From Cuyahoga County, RW Layton, NOACA
Data Source: IRS
Percent Change in Per Capita Income 1996-2001
End Result
Cuyahoga County Still has Some Wealthy Households
While the Wealth is being Spread Around the Region
Medina and Cuyahoga still
better than state median
income!
Commuting from Medina County Will Grow
as Wealthy Households Journey to Work
2000 Journey
to Work Data
With 76,548 people (2000) in
workforce means 53% of working
population commutes out of county
53% of 89,900 estimated Civilian labor force in 2004
would translate to over 47,600 Medina County commuters daily!
Source: CTPP County Level Journey to Work Data, NOACA Technical Memorandum (June 2003)
Combine More Vehicles from….
More Commuters
More Traffic Generators
More Interstate Travel
Means EMS & Fire Departments are only going to get busier!
FUTURE TREND: Baby Boomers Gain Bigger Share of Population
0-19
30-39
50-59
Population Projection by Age Cohort
20-29
40-49
60+
60,000
117%
Increase
since 2000
50,000
Medina County Population
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2015
48,120
22,520
20,950
25,880
27,420
36,190
181,080
2020
50,540
22,760
24,480
24,780
27,050
42,220
191,830
2025
51,730
24,330
24,930
24,640
25,570
47,280
198,480
Year
Age Cohort
0-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60+
Total
2000
45,040
15,300
24,390
25,650
18,900
21,830
151,110
2005
45,640
18,440
22,090
27,560
22,510
25,430
161,670
2010
48,470
19,130
22,270
27,700
25,250
30,930
173,750
SOURCE: Office of Strategic Research, Ohio Department of Development (2003)
31% Increase
since 2000
CONSEQUENCES OF AGING
Seniors are 2.5 times more likely to die in fires than the
overall population.

Fire and the Older Adult, National Fire Data Center (2006)
Non-fatal injury rates increase with age.
“Public Health and Aging” CDC (2003)
Relative to their pre-retirement living standards, all
baby boom retirees will be worse off than current
retirees. Most retirees will not have as much income in
retirement as they did in their working years.
It’s All Relative: Understanding the Retirement Prospects of Baby
Boomers, THE URBAN INSTITUTE (2003)
CONSEQUENCES OF AGING
The increased number of persons aged >65
years will lead to increased health-care costs.

The rapid growth in the number of older persons, coupled with
continued advances in medical technology, is expected to create
upward pressure on health- and long-term--care spending.
• “Public Health and Aging: Trends in Aging --- United States and
Worldwide”, CDC (February 14, 2003)
The risks of falling into poor health, losing the ability to
work or live independently, becoming widowed,
becoming jobless and experiencing other negative
events that threaten financial security increase with
age.
SOURCE: When the Nest Egg Cracks: Financial Consequences of Health Problems, Marital
Status Changes, and Job Layoffs at Older Ages. THE URBAN INSTITUTE (2006)
Consequences of Aging Community
More public safety demands
Greater frequency and severity of calls
More non-emergency public service demands
More “aging in place” issues
Home maintenance and access problems
Less household wealth to support local services
Problems are worse for stagnant communities
Politics and Money
Meeting increased service
demands is going to cost more
Where does the additional money
come from?
Public View Tax Fairness Changes Over Time
T he W orst T ax, T hat is Le ast F air
POLL
GalIup/ACIR
GalIup/ACIR
GalIup/ACIR
GalIup/ACIR
Gallup/ACIR
Gallup/CNN/
USA Today
Apr. 2005 Gallup/CNN/
USA Today
20
10
7
17
42
Source: Public Opinion on Taxes, American Enterprise Institute (October 31, 2005)
Growing Dissatisfaction
with Local Property Tax
D AT E
Jun. 1988
Jun. 1989
May 1990
Jun. 1992
Jun. 1994
Apr. 2003
Fe de ra l Socia l
Sta te
Sta te
Loca l
Income Se curity Income Sa le s Prope rty
26
17
9
15
24
21
18
9
4
28
26
15
10
12
28
25
10
9
16
25
27
12
7
14
28
21
11
11
13
38
Taking Federal Taxes Out of the Question
“Of the following state and local taxes, which do you think is the worst tax- that is, the least fair?
Least Fair State and Local Tax
40
35
Percent
30
25
20
38
15
10
19
18
5
7
0
Local Property
State Income
State Sales
State and Local Tax
Source: Public Opinion on Taxes, American Enterprise Institute (October 31,
2005)
State Corporate
Current Tax Revolt
Tax Expenditure Limitation Amendment (TEL)
Successful initiative Referendum scheduled for
ballot November 2006
Similar limitations exist in 27 states and, according
to proponents, have been effective in restraining
state and local government spending.
Principal parts of TELA
Section 14(A) of the amendment requires a
majority vote of Ohio voters to increase state
expenditures above a spending cap.
Cap is calculated using the sum of the rate of
inflation plus the rate of population change in the
state, or three and one half per cent.
Section 14(B) of the amendment mandates
the establishment of a “budget reserve fund,”
- one half unencumbered moneys must be
transferred to the budget reserve fund, and
the other one half must be refunded to
individual state income tax taxpayers.
Principal parts of TELA
Section 14(B) of the amendment mandates the
establishment of a “budget reserve fund.”
Requires that one half of the sum of unencumbered moneys
be transferred to the budget reserve fund, and the other one
half must be refunded to individual state income tax
taxpayers.
Section 14(C) of the amendment prohibits the state
from requiring a political subdivision to fulfill any state
mandate unless that mandate is fully funded by the
state.
Section 14(D) requires the state to appropriate each
year an amount equal to five per cent of “aggregate
state expenditures” to a “local government fund.”
Principal parts of TELA
Section 14(E) of the amendment requires a majority
vote of the electors of a political subdivision to
authorize that political subdivision to (i) increase
expenditures beyond a spending cap (inflation plus
rate of population change in the political subdivision),
or three and one half per cent, (ii) increase taxes, or
(iii) create a new tax.

Expenditures of moneys received from the federal or state
government or as a gift from a donor, or for a refund or an
emergency, are excluded from the political subdivision
spending cap and the calculation of that cap.
Early Polling Shows Strong Support
Akron Buckeye Poll, Bliss Institute
Among likely voters, two thirds (66%) of those
surveyed said they support the plan to limit the growth
in state spending.
Support for the TEL was strong among Independents
(69.2%) and Republicans (79.3%), but other groups
were supportive as well, including self-identified
Democrats (53.1%), members of labor unions (58.7%),
and African-Americans (59%).
Respondents “disgusted” with Ohio politics were much less
supportive (56.7%) than those who were “satisfied” (80.6%).

The Akron Buckeye Poll was conducted for the Bliss Institute September 28 October 20 among 409 likely voters, and has a margin of error plus or minus 5
percentage points
Support of TEL Amendment by Age
Likely Voters
Support Oppose
Less than 35 years
60.0
40.0
35 to 54 years
68.5
31.5
55 years of older
66.1
33.9
Source: Akron Buckeye Poll, September 28-October 20
(N=409 for Likely Voters)
Margin of error plus or minus 5%
Future of Local Public Safety Force Levies?
Maybe not that bad – there are some mitigating factors…
Adequate Performance Measurements
EMS Benchmarks 2004
Average Elapsed
Time Segments
Out of Chute:
To Scene:
On Scene:
Transport:
Return to Service:
IV Success Rate
Oral ET Intubation
Brunswick Region
State
City
9
1.0
1.1
1.6
4.0
4.2
4.5
12.0
16.1
13.9
13.5
9.0
12.0
NA
21.5
27.4
84%
87%
86%
75%
88%
85%
Most Important to
Average Public
Not Bad, But Needs Improvement
Ohio EMS Incident Report System: Time Segment Definitions
Out of Chute: from Time Unit Notified to Time Unit En Route
To Scene: from Time Unit En Route to Time Unit On Scene
On Scene: from Time Unit On Scene to Time Unit Departed Scene
Transport: from Time Unit Departed Scene to Time Unit Arrived At Hospital
Return to Service: from Time Unit Arrived At Hospital to Time Unit Back In Service
Total Time: from Time Unit Notified to Time Unit En Route
SOURCE: Ohio EMS Data Center (2004 Regional PI Benchmarks) & City of Brunswick
Changes in Medina County Voters
Active Voters by Age Group*
Age
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70+
Total Active*
Total
Registered
Aug-99
Mar-05
Difference
7,154
12,804
16,963
12,138
6,195
5,738
60,992
11,210
15,196
20,300
16,856
9,032
7,080
79,674
4,056
2,392
3,337
4,718
2,837
1,342
18,682
88,968
108,391
19,423
Under/Over
50 Group
9785
8897
*Voted at least once in 4 years prior and with reported
birthdates
Source: Medina County Board of Elections Registered Voters (8/1999 and 3/2005) analysis by Stephen D Hambley, Ph.D.
Political Advantages of Fire/EMS Services
Most voting groups see services as absolutely essential and top
priority for public expenditures
EMS/Fire levies look small compared to School levies
“Volunteer” staffed department image
Demographic cohorts in growing county could balance voting
strength of “anti-taxers” against in-migrating newcomers looking
for services comparable to prior suburban home
Current levels of services adequate but need improved to meet
growing expectations of public
Services are more or less free – consumers not charged,
companies or federal government are charged (limited
advantage)
Optimistic Future of Medina County
Medina County is….
Gaining in population – new people with new ideas and
creativity
Ongoing construction of new houses that are long term
investments in neighborhoods
Getting older… and wiser
Getting wealthier
County can probably weather the national tax revolt and
TELA relatively well because we are growing and are
wealthier and have competent “above-average” public
agencies
Like Lake Wobegone…