Transcript Predictors of Success in Distance Education

Predictors of Success in
Distance Education Courses
2000-01 to 2004-05
Mohamed Eisa & Dale Craig
Diablo Valley College
Introduction
• Offering courses in flexible formats, where
learning can take place anytime and anywhere,
is one of the hallmarks of the present
information age. This transformation was
necessary to meet the growing needs of people
with jobs and family responsibilities.
Introduction
• In the past five years, online course offerings
at Diablo Valley College witnessed a
phenomenal expansion that far exceeds the
overall enrollment growth during this period. It
is anticipated that such expansion will continue
unabated for several years to come.
Introduction
This study will address the the following issues
related to online courses:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Enrollment trends
Demographic profile of students
Academic productivity
Academic performance of students
Predictors of success in online courses
Recommendations for improvement
Methodology
Three methodologies are used in this study:
• Analysis of data from the MIS Datatel system related
to student enrollment, demographics, productivity,
and academic performance
• Discussion of the underlying differences between
online and face-to-face courses through focus groups
that include faculty, staff, and students
• Literature review
Enrollment Trends
Enrollment in online courses is measured in several
ways including:
•
•
•
•
•
Enrollment by full-time equivalent students (FTES)
Enrollment by seat count
Enrollment by disciplines and courses
Enrollment by course duration
Enrollment by head count
Enrollment by Full-Time Equivalent
Students (FTES)
• DVC’s enrollment in distance education courses
increased significantly over the past five years, with
every term setting a new record that surpassed that of
the previous one.
• In 2004-05, online courses generated 774 FTES,
accounting for 4.4% of the total FTES for the year.
In effect, online courses are gradually becoming the
source of a modest portion of the revenue generated
by the college.
Enrollment by Full-Time Equivalent
Students (FTES)
• On a term-by-term basis, summer terms had a twentyfold increase, fall terms a 270% increase, and spring
terms a 231% increase over five years.
• The annual FTES (774) in 2004-05 was more than
four times as much as that (184) of 2000-01. With
the convenience of online courses and increasing
technological sophistication of students, this mode of
course delivery will continue to expand in future
years.
DVC Enrollment by FTES
2000-01 to 2004-05
Annual FTES
774.2
800
596.1
600
394.9
400
303.5
184.5
200
0
2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 200401
02
03
04
05
Enrollment by Seat Count
• Summer enrollments increased twelve-fold in five
years, fall enrollments by 250%, and spring
enrollments by 230%. Furthermore, there have been
no dips or setbacks in enrollment, only steady
increases.
• The spring 2005 seat count enrollment in online
courses was 4.7% of DVC’s total seat count
enrollment (2,751 out of 58,968), compared to only
1.4% in Spring 2001 (834 out of 61,211).
Enrollment by Seat Count
• The annual online share rose from 1.1% to
4.4%. Although distance education represents
a relatively smaller portion of the overall
course offerings at the college, it is
increasingly becoming more significant; and
planning for the college needs to take its
steady growth into account.
Online Enrollment as a Percent of Total
Seat Count, 2000-01 to 2004-05
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Online Share
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
1.1%
1.6%
1.9%
3.1%
4.4%
Enrollment by Discipline
• Academic disciplines are organized on the basis of California
Community Colleges Taxonomy of Program (TOP). TOP is a
classification system that includes 24 disciplines and over 200
sub-disciplines.
• The college as a whole offers courses in 21 of the 24
disciplines. No programs are offered in law, military studies,
or commercial services.
• Online course offerings are limited to only 14 of the 21 broad
disciplines. The college does not offer online instruction in
agriculture, architecture, environmental sciece, biological
science, health, family&consumer sciences, and psychology.
Enrollment by Discipline
• The top five disciplines in terms of online course
enrollment in the past five years include the
following:
Humanities (Letters)
Business and Management
Mathematics
Information Technology
Social Sciences
Enrollment by Discipline
2000-01 to 2004-05
TOP
Code
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
15
16
17
19
21
22
49
Discipline
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Business Management
234
318
464
1,203
1,802
Media and Communication
0
0
0
53
46
Information Technology
192
404
536
465
632
Education
0
0
0
18
33
Engineering and Industrial Tech.
36
39
37
48
47
Fine and Applied Arts
0
0
0
72
211
Foreign Language
0
24
56
48
11
Humanities (Letters)
645
842
793
936
934
Library Science
90
57
43
122
281
Mathematics
173
407
646
824
773
Physical Sciences
88
164
116
139
136
Public and Protective Services
0
0
0
0
299
Social Sciences
67
88
217
484
667
Interdisciplinary Studies
0
36
0
0
41
Total
4,021
99
2,229
51
207
283
139
4,150
593
2,823
643
299
1,523
77
DVC Total
17,137
1,525
2,379
2,908
4,412
5,913
Enrollment by Sub-Discipline
• Sub-disciplines are used to categorize areas of study
that are narrower than the broad disciplines. The TOP
code system has more than 200 sub-disciplines.
• The college as a whole offers courses in almost 100
sub-disciplines.
• In the past five years, DVC offered online courses in
only 24 sub-disciplines.
Enrollment by Sub-Discipline
• The top five sub-disciplines in terms of
enrollment in online courses are as follows:
English
Mathematics
Accounting
Business
Computer Information Systems
Enrollment in the Top Ten Online SubDisciplines, 2000-01 to 2004-05
Enrollment in the Top Ten Online Sub-Disciplines
5,000
4,150
4,000
2,823
3,000
1,963
2,000
1,569
468
459
Bus. Info.
Management
643
Library
Studies
Comp. Science
Comp.Info.
Systems
Business
Accounting
Math
English
0
840
Oceanography
1,078
1,000
History
1,151
Enrollment by Course Duration
• An average of 75% of online sections are 18 weeks in
duration. No other type of duration comes close in section
numbers or enrollment to 18 weeks, which had a total of 445
sections and 12,850 student over five years.
• The next largest totals were 6-week classes with 1,225
students and 42 sections, or 7.1% of total enrollment in five
years.
• Courses offered for 9 weeks had 1,187 students and 44
sections or 6.9% of the total enrollment over five years.
National Distance Education
Enrollments
• National Data for 2000-01 are used for comparison since
information for the most recent years is not available.
• There was 255% growth in distance education course
enrollments in public U.S. 2-year colleges over a six-year
period (1994-95 to 2000-01)
Year
1994-95
1997-98
2000-01
Enrollments
414,160
712,170
1,472,000
National Distance Education
Enrollments in 2000-2001
DISTANCE EDUCATION ENROLLMENTS
All Title IV Institutions
No.
Total number of enrollments
3,077,000
College-level, credit-granting,
undergraduate courses enrollments
2,350,000
%
100%
76.4%
All Public 2- and 4-Year
Total number of enrollments
College-level, credit-granting,
undergraduate course enrollments
No.
2,417,000
%
100%
2,001,000
82.8%
All Public 2-Year
Total number of enrollments
College-level, credit-granting,
undergraduate course enrollments
No.
1,472,000
%
100%
1,435,000
97.5%
Demographic Profile
• The demographic profile of online students
includes the following:
Gender
Ethnicity
Age
Educational Goals
Geographical Location (Zip Codes)
Gender of Online Students
• Women accounted for 62.4% of online students in fall
2004, compared to 51.5% among all DVC students.
• Men accounted for only 36.4% of online students,
compared to 45.7% among all DVC students.
Considerably more women than men are online
students.
• From fall 2000 to fall 2004, enrollment of men in
online courses increased by 1.7%, while the
enrollment of women dropped by 2.3%.
Gender of Students in Online Courses
Fall Terms: 2000 to 2004
Online Student Gender
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
M ale
Female
Unkno wn
FA 00
34.7%
64.7%
0.6%
FA 01
33.7%
64.4%
1.9%
FA 02
34.6%
63.6%
1.8%
FA 03
31.6%
66.0%
2.3%
FA 04
36.4%
62.4%
1.1%
Ethnicity of Online Students
• In fall 2004, White students accounted for 53.0% of
the enrollment in online courses, compared to 50.2%
in the overall population at DVC. Online enrollment
for this group declined by 4.0% in five years.
• Asian/Pacific Islander students represented 18.1% of
online enrollment, compared to 18.7% at the college.
Online enrollment of this group increased by 3.4% in
five years.
• Online enrollment of Hispanic students stood at
10.2% of the total online enrollment, compared to
12.3% at the college. Online enrollment of this group
increased by 1.7% in five years.
Ethnicity of Online Students
• African American students accounted for 5.8% of
online enrollment in fall 2004, compared to a similar
percentage at the college. Online enrollment of this
group declined by 1.8% in five years.
• The remaining ethnic catagories (Native Americans,
Other Non-White, and Unknown had similar
breakdowns for online courses and for the college as
a whole.
• In summary, there are no significant ethnic
differences between the students enrolled in online
courses and the general student body at DVC.
Ethnicity of Online Students
Fall Terms: 2000 to 2004
Online Student Ethnicity
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
A frican-A m
A sian/P acific Isl
Hispanic
Native A m
Other No n-Wh
White
Unkno wn
FA 00
7.6%
14.7%
8.5%
1.7%
3.2%
57.0%
7.4%
FA 01
5.3%
16.5%
8.3%
0.5%
4.1%
58.0%
7.3%
FA 02
5.1%
16.1%
8.6%
0.4%
3.0%
57.5%
9.3%
FA 03
6.1%
16.4%
9.5%
0.7%
3.0%
53.2%
11.0%
FA 04
5.8%
18.1%
10.2%
1.0%
3.1%
53.0%
8.8%
Age of Online Students
• Students at the age of 19 or younger accounted for
18% of the enrollment in online courses, compared to
32% at the college.Online enrollment for this group
increased sharply from 1% to 18% in five years.
• Another 56% of online students were at the age of 20
to 29 years, compared with 42% of all DVC students.
Online enrollment for this group declined slightly by
1% in 5 years.
• Students at the age of 30 to 49 represented 21% of
online enrollment, compared to 17% at the college.
Online enrollment of this group declined sharply by
13% in 5 years.
Age of Online Students
• Students at the age of 50 years and older represented
5% of online enrollment, compared to 8% at the
college. Online enrollment of this group declined by
3% in 5 years.
• In summary, students in their 20s, 30s, and 40s enroll
in large numbers and proportions in online courses
(77%, compared to 60% at the college). Young
students below 20 years and older students of 50+
years prefer face-to-face over online courses.
Age of Online Students
Fall Terms: 2000 to 2004
Online Age
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
19 o r Yo unger
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-49
50 and Over
FA 00
0.7%
39.7%
17.4%
11.9%
8.7%
13.5%
8.0%
FA 01
6.8%
45.1%
15.6%
7.8%
6.3%
12.3%
6.1%
FA 02
12.7%
36.4%
15.5%
9.1%
6.6%
12.2%
7.6%
FA 03
12.0%
39.7%
15.6%
10.2%
6.5%
10.1%
5.8%
FA 04
18.0%
39.7%
16.1%
6.8%
5.4%
9.2%
4.9%
Educational Goals of Online
Students
•
A significant portion of online students (61.1%) have a
transfer goal, compared to 52.1% at DVC.
•
The proportion of online students with vocational goals
(10.2%) was similar to that of DVC as a whole (10.7%)
•
Those with personal or lifelong learning goals represented
3.6% of online enrollment, compared to 7.0% at DVC.
•
A relatively larger segment of online students (14.0%) is
undecided. This percentage is slightly below that of the
college as a whole (17.8%). The proportion of undecided has
declined sharply since fall 2000.
Educational Goals of Online and DVC
Students, Fall 2000 and Spring 2005
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Transfer
Degree/Certific
ate
Vocational
Career
Personal
Basic
Skills/H.School
Undecided
FA00 Online
44.0%
7.2%
6.7%
2.6%
1.3%
38.2%
FA00 DVC
33.7%
7.2%
9.2%
6.0%
2.3%
41.6%
SP05 Online
61.1%
7.9%
10.2%
3.6%
3.2%
14.0%
SP05 DVC
52.1%
7.8%
10.7%
7.0%
4.6%
17.8%
Geographical Distribution of
Online Students
• In fall 2004, 47% of online students lived in North Central
Contra Costa County, compared to 51% for DVC as a whole.
• Online students who lived in the southern, eastern, or western
parts of the county had a similar percentage to those for DVC
as a whole.
• There were a slightly higher percentage of online students
from Alameda, Solano and other counties, compared to that of
DVC as a whole.
• In general, the geographical distribution of online students is
similar to that of DVC as a whole. However, the longer the
distance to the college campus, the higher the likelihood for
enrollment in online courses. Geographical expansion of
online course offerings would be suitable for the areas located
further away from the campus.
Geographical Distribution of Online and
DVC Students, Fall 2004
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
North
Central
South
Central
East
County
West
County
Alameda
Solano
Other
DVC
51.2%
12.5%
11.9%
6.7%
8.2%
6.3%
3.3%
Online
46.7%
13.2%
11.8%
6.6%
9.6%
7.2%
4.9%
Productivity of Online Courses
(WSCH/FTEF)
• Productivity is the ratio of weekly student contact hours
(WSCH) to full-time equivalent faculty (FTEF), or
WSCH/FTEF. Although there is no standard number for
productivity, a ratio of 525 WSCH/FTEF is considered
desirable.
• The five-year average productivity of online courses was
437, compared to 501 for DVC as a whole.
• Online productivity grew from 424 in fall 2000 to 482 in
spring 2005, while DVC’s productivity dropped from 508 to
472 during the same period. Online courses are becoming
more productive.
Academic Load for Online and DVC
2000 to 2005
WSCH/FTEF: Online and DVC
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
SU00 FA 00 SP 01 SU01 FA 01 SP 02 SU02 FA 02 SP 03 SU03 FA 03 SP 04 SU04 FA 04 SP 05
Online
315.7 423.6 429.2 365.0 447.8 457.6 390.0 522.8 447.3 438.9 464.8 441.3 477.4 448.4 481.5
Diablo Valley Co llege
547.1 508.2 492.1 545.2 497.2 488.5 522.7 500.9 486
521 503.9 482.9 461.4 482.2 472.3
Average Class Size
• For online students, the average class size stood at
28.5 student per class over five years, compared to
27.4 for DVC students as a whole.
• The average class size for the online program was
slightly higher than that of DVC as a whole.
Average Class Size for Online and DVC
2000 to 2005
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
SU00 FA00 SP01 SU01 FA01 SP02 SU02 FA02 SP03 SU03 FA03 SP04 SU04 FA04 SP05
Online 20.5
25.4
30.9
36.7
28.3
30.7
27.4
31.0
27.3
31.1
27.4
27.1
28.9
25.9
30.9
28.4
27.3
27.4
29.9
27.4
27.5
29.0
27.2
27.2
28.0
28.1
27.3
25.5
27.0
27.0
DVC
Academic Performance of Online
Students: Success Rates
• Two measures are used to gauge student academic
performance: course success and course retention rates. A
course success rate is the ratio of the number of grades of A,
B, C, and CR over all grades assigned in different courses,
including W. On the other hand, a course retention rate is the
ratio of the number of all grades except W over all grades.
• The average success rate for students enrolled in online
courses stood at 55.5%, compared to 70.0% for DVC as a
whole, a gap of 14.5%.
• The range of success rates for online courses was between
49.0% and 61.6%, compared to a range of 67.7% and 72.5%
for all DVC students. The distribution of the success rates for
online courses was more dispersed, compared to DVC as a
whole.
Academic Performance of Online
Students: Retention Rates
• During the same five-year period, the average retention rate
for online courses was 70.5%, compared to 80.7% for DVC as
a whole, a gap of 10.2%.
• The range of retention rates for online courses fell between
59.7% and 76.5%, compared to a range of 77.3% to 83.6% for
DVC as a whole. A higher rate of dispersion was evident in
online courses.
• Online students had a much higher average withdrawal rate
(29.5%) than DVC students as a whole (19.3%). The
withdrawal rates for online students should be reduced. The
college needs to discern the reasons for the high rate of
withdrawals, and initiate strong efforts to reduce them.
Success Rates for Online and DVC
Students, Fall 2000 to Spring 2005
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Spring
2001
Fall
2001
Spring
2002
Fall
2002
Spring
2003
Fall
2003
Spring
2004
Fall
2004
Spring
2005
Online 61.6%
51.3%
49.0%
54.2%
52.3%
58.7%
54.0%
55.5%
57.9%
57.1%
67.7%
68.7%
68.1%
69.8%
70.4%
72.5%
71.0%
71.9%
70.4%
70.9%
DVC
Fall
2000
Retention Rates for Online and DVC
Students, Fall 2000 to Spring 2005
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Fall
2000
Spring
2001
Fall
2001
Spring
2002
Fall
2002
Spring
2003
Fall
2003
Spring
2004
Fall
2004
Spring
2005
Online 71.9%
61.6%
59.7%
66.6%
66.7%
74.8%
68.7%
68.7%
75.2%
76.5%
77.8%
77.5%
77.3%
81.1%
81.3%
83.6%
83.1%
82.4%
82.9%
82.0%
DVC
Predictors of Success in Online
Courses
• Four major factors may have impacted the
academic performance of students enrolled in
online courses, including:
– The discipline
– The teacher
– The student
– The medium
• We will examine the data first, followed by a
summary of the focus group discussion.
Predictors of Success in Online
Courses
• Analysis of the data focuses on the differences in
course success and retention rates of online and nononline courses by the following factors: course load,
gender, age, and ethnicity.
• By focusing on each of these factors, we discovered
some significant differences that should be anayzed
and studied further. Through focus group discussion,
we were able to explain some of these differences and
provide recommendations for improvement.
Success Rates by Course Load
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
• Online students carrying a full-time load of 12 or more units
had a success rate of 59.5%, compared to 75.4% for nononline students, a gap of 15.9%. This group had the highest
average success rates for both online and non-online courses.
• Online students carrying less than 6 units each term had an
average success rate of 57.5%, compared to 72.6% for nononline courses, a gap of 15.1%.
• These two groups have some similarities, where the success
rates for online students in both groups are not far apart. The
same observation may be made about non-online courses.
Success Rates by Course Load
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
• Online students carrying 6 to less than 12 units had an
average success rate of 51.3%, compared to 64.0%
for non-online students, a difference of 12.6%. This
was the smallest gap among the three groups
organized by unit load. However, this group had the
lowest success rates for both online and non-online
courses.
• Further study of the student profiles for all three
groups will be helpful in enhancing our
understanding of the differences in success rates.
Success Rates by Course Load
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
Course
Load
< 6 Units
6-<12
12+
Total
Total
2,796
3,861
4,661
11,318
Group Totals and Average Success Rates
Online
Non-Online
Succ
Succ Rate
Total
Succ
Succ Rate Difference
1,607
57.5%
67,926
49,311
72.6%
-15.1%
1,982
51.3%
100,597
64,350
64.0%
-12.6%
2,773
59.5%
192,296
145,007
75.4%
-15.9%
6,362
56.2%
360,819
258,668
71.7%
-15.5%
Retention Rates by Course Load
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
• The average difference in retention rates between online and
non-online students stood at 10.5%. However, the difference
among students with a full course load is the greatest (11.6%).
• The retention rates of both online and non-online students are
highest when they are carrying a full-time course load (12 or
more units) or if they carry under 6 units. Lowest are the rates
for students who are carrying 6 to less than 12 units (68.8%
and 77.5% respectively).
• Once again, further study of the profile of students in all
groups would be helpful in understanding the differences in
retention rates among the groups and between online and nononline students.
Retention Rates by Course Load
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
Course
Term
Load
< 6 Units
Fall 2002 to 6-<12
Spring 2005 12+
Total
Total
2,796
3,861
4,661
11,318
Online
Ret
Ret Rate
2,082
74.5%
2,655
68.8%
3,451
74.0%
8,188
72.3%
Non-Online
Total
Ret
Ret Rate Difference
67,926
56,460
83.1%
-8.7%
100,597
77,949
77.5%
-8.7%
192,296 164,608
85.6%
-11.6%
360,819 299,017
82.9%
-10.5%
Success Rates by Gender
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
• The average six-term success rate for female online students
was significantly lower (57.6%) that that of non-online female
students (73.9%). There was a wide gap of 16.3% among the
two groups.
• Similarly, the success rate for online male students (53.4%)
was also significantly below that of non-online males (69.4%).
The difference between the average success rates for the two
groups was 16.0%.
• In summary, while women outperform men among both online
and non-online courses, both genders fared better when taking
face-to-face courses on campus.
Success Rates by Gender
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
Gender
Men
Women
Unknown
Total
Total
3,926
7,178
214
11,318
Group Totals and Average Success Rates
Online
Non-Online
Succ
Succ Rate
Total
Succ
Succ Rate Difference
2,098
53.4% 170,757 118,515
69.4%
-16.0%
4,132
57.6% 181,467 134,048
73.9%
-16.3%
132
61.7%
8,595
6,105
71.0%
-9.3%
6,362
56.2% 360,819 258,668
71.7%
-15.5%
Retention Rates by Gender
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
• Women outperform men among both online and nononline courses with respect to retention rates.
• The average female online retention rate was lower
(73.2%) than that of non-online female students
(83.6%), by 10.4%
• For men, the gap was slightly wider between online
and non-online courses, and it stood at 11.4% in favor
of non-online courses.
Retention Rates by Gender
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
Term
Gender
Men
Fall 2002 to Women
Spring 2005 Unknown
Total
Total
3,926
7,178
214
11,318
Online
Retention Ret Rate
2,773
70.6%
5,257
73.2%
158
73.8%
8,188
72.3%
Non-Online
Total
Retention Ret Rate Difference
170,757 140,039
82.0%
-11.4%
181,467 151,773
83.6%
-10.4%
8,595
7,205
83.8%
-10.0%
360,819 299,017
82.9%
-10.5%
Success Rates by Age
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
• Students who are 50 years and over have the highest average
success rate of 62.8% among online students, but this is in
comparison to the 82.5% success rate which this group enjoys
among non-online students, a large gap of 19.7%.
• The next highest average success rates among both online and
non-online students were those of students in the 25 to 49 age
group (58.1% compared to 73.6%, a gap of 15.5%).
• The lowest success rate among both online and non-online
students was among those under 25 years, but the success rates
differ markedly here as well (54.0% compared to 70.2%, a
16.2% difference).
Success Rate by Age
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
Age
< 25
25-49
50+
Total
Total
5,920
4,740
658
11,318
Group Totals and Average Success Rates
Online
Non-Online
Succ
Succ Rate
Total
Succ
Succ Rate Difference
3,197
54.0% 253,109 177,611
70.2%
-16.2%
2,752
58.1%
87,305
64,232
73.6%
-15.5%
413
62.8%
20,405
16,825
82.5%
-19.7%
6,362
56.2% 360,819 258,668
71.7%
-15.5%
Retention Rates by Age
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
Term
Age
< 25
Fall 2002 to 25-49
Spring 2005 50+
Total
Total
5,920
4,740
658
11,318
Online
Retention Ret Rate
4,186
70.7%
3,482
73.5%
520
79.0%
8,188
72.3%
Non-Online
Total
Retention Ret Rate Difference
253,109 208,651
82.4%
-11.7%
87,305
72,305
82.8%
-9.4%
20,405
18,061
88.5%
-9.5%
360,819 299,017
82.9%
-10.5%
Success Rates by Ethnicity
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
• The top-performing ethnic group among online
students was Asians/Pacific-Islanders, with an
average success rate of 61.0%, a difference of 10.4%
when that is compared with the success rate of nononline students (71.5%).
• Online White students had a success rate of 57.1%,
compared to that of non-online White students at
73.9%, a gap of 16.8%.
Success Rates by Ethnicity
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
• Online Hispanic students had a 45.7% success
rate, compared to a 65.6% rate for non-online
students, a gap of 19.9%.
• Online African-American students had a
success rate of 32.9%, compared to 56.0% for
non-online students, a gap of 23.1%, the
largest gap among the four ethnic groups.
Success Rates by Ethnicity
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
• The low success rates for African American
and Hispanic students are significantly low.
Every effort should be made to improve the
success rates for these two groups, regardless
of the method of instructional delivery.
Success Rates by Ethnicity
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
Fall 2002 - Spring 2005 Group Totals and Average Success Rates
Online
Non-Online
Ethnicity* Total
Succ
Succ Rate
Total
Succ Succ Rate Difference
Afr-Amer
674
222
32.9%
19,022
10,654
56.0%
-23.1%
Asian
2,050
1,251
61.0%
68,321
48,818
71.5%
-10.4%
Hispanic
1,068
488
45.7%
41,521
27,222
65.6%
-19.9%
White
6,016
3,433
57.1% 172,914 127,740
73.9%
-16.8%
Other
1,510
968
64.1%
59,041
44,234
74.9%
-10.8%
Total
11,318
6,362
56.2% 360,819 258,668
71.7%
-15.5%
*The Ethnic categories Native American, Other Non-White, and Unknown were
grouped as Other. "Asian" includes Asian, Filipino and Pacific Islander
Retention Rates by Ethnicity
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
• The top-performing ethnic group among online
students were the Asians/Pacific-Islanders,
with a 76.2% average retention rate; however,
this rate was 7.1% below that of Asian nononline students (83.2%).
• Online White students had a retention rate of
72.2%, compared to that of non-online
students (85.0%), a gap of 12.7%.
Retention Rates by Ethnicity
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
• Online Hispanic students had a retention rate of
64.5%, compared to 79.7% among non-online
students, for a difference of 15.2% (the largest
difference).
• Online African-American students had a retention
rate of 60.8%,compared to 75.0% for non-online
students, a gap of 14.1%.
• It is imperative that the retention rates for Hispanic
and African-American students be improved, and
especially among online students.
Retention Rates by Ethnicity
Fall 2002 to Spring 2005
Term
Ethnicity*
Afr-Amer
Asian
Fall 2002 To Hispanic
Spring 2005 White
Other
Total
Total
674
2,050
1,068
6,016
1,510
11,318
Online
Retention Ret Rate
410
60.8%
1,562
76.2%
689
64.5%
4,345
72.2%
1,182
78.3%
8,188
72.3%
Non-Online
Total
Retention Ret Rate Difference
19,022
14,261
75.0%
-14.1%
68,321
56,874
83.2%
-7.1%
41,521
33,100
79.7%
-15.2%
172,914
146,898
85.0%
-12.7%
59,041
47,884
81.1%
-2.8%
360,819
299,017
82.9%
-10.5%
*The Ethnic categories Native American, Other Non-White, and Unknown were
grouped as Other. "Asian" includes Asian, Filipino and Pacific Islander
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• Distance education courses have become an
increasingly popular mode of instruction and learning
at community colleges over the past few years, and
there will be even greater increases in the number of
distance education courses and in online enrollment
in future years.
• Enrollment in distance education courses could be an
important factor in the rescue and reversal of
declining enrollment rates at some California
community colleges.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• At Diablo Valley College over the past five
years, online course offerings expanded
phenomenally, exceeding by far the overall
enrollment growth during this period. Online
courses accounted for 4.4% of the total FTES
at DVC in 2004-05, compared to only 1.1%,
five years earlier. This trend tracks similar
trends in the state and in the nation as a whole.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• The top five online courses were Freshman English,
Critical Thinking, Elementary Algebra, Intermediate
Algebra, and Elementary Statistics. Courses were also
offered in Business, Information Technology, and
Social sciences. There were no course offerings in
Biology, Health, or Chemistry.
• Women accounted for more than 62% of DVC’s
online course enrollments in fall 2004, compared with
51% among overall students.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• Ethnicity proportions were similar to those of the
student body as a whole, with White students making
up the largest percentage, followed by Asians,
Hispanics, and African Americans.
• The age distribution of online students was different
from that of the college as a whole. There were 12%
less online students in the 19 years or younger age
group, and 6% more in the 25-29 age group. Students
in their 20s made up the majority (56%) of online
learners.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• The majority (55%) of online students had a
goal of transfer to a 4-year institution. A
significant percentage (21%) was undecided.
• Almost 75% of the online courses were offered
for the duration of 18 weeks each term. Fewer
courses were offered in shorter time spans of
six or nine weeks.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• Four out of the seven geographic areas from which
DVC students come experienced significant online
growth rates (higher than 200%).
• Solano County, the furthest distant from DVC, had
the greatest growth rate for online students (250%).
• The greatest growth in enrollment numbers (552)
over five fall terms was in North Contra Costa
County, the area closest to DVC
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• The sobering elements among all this good news
were online students’ drop-out rate and success rate,
by comparison with the college as a whole.
• Online students had a much higher average drop
rate (30%) than DVC students as a whole (19%)
over five years.
• Online students’ success and retention rates are at
considerably lower levels than those for DVC as a
whole.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• The gap in success rates was more than 15
percentage points and the gap in retention
rates was more than 10 percentage points.
• To understand how to raise the success and
retention rates of online students and reduce
the drop rate, we have to understand which
students are more likely to succeed in
distance education courses.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• In order to understand why online students’
success and retention rates are consistently lower
than those of non-online students, the success and
retention rates of these two distinct groups were
compared by course load, gender, age and
ethnicity in order to discover ways to ameliorate
problems and create an environment of higher
performance possibilities for online students.
• Predictors of success among online students need to
be taken into account as online course curricula are
planned.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• Disciplines such as Administration of Justice,
Geography and English have seen comparatively high
success rates among online students, whereas Social
Sciences, Computer Information Systems, and
Business Management have seen relatively lower
success rates among online students.
• Faculty level of training and experience in teaching
online courses should be examined to determine
whether or not these factors impact student
performance in online courses.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• Online courses which seem to result in student
academic performance problems should be
improved, and the reasons for lower success
rates should be examined further.
• Hybrid courses, which introduce some face-toface class time each week, may be substituted
for purely online courses where success rates
are significantly low.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• Regardless of the course load, students tend to
succeed at relatively higher levels when they enroll in
face-to-face courses, compared to online courses.
• Students who carry a medium load of 6 to 12 units
have a higher risk of failure and withdrawal in both
online and non-online courses. The profile of these
students should be studied further and possibly in
combination with other variables such as gender, age,
or ethnicity.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• Counselors should inform male students that they
could have success rates which are 16.0% higher if
they enroll in non-online courses as compared with
online, and women could be informed that their
difference is 16.3%.
• The age group that most needs to receive information
about the differing success rates in online and nononline courses is students who are less than 25 years
old. They have an online success rate of 54.0% and
could possibly be enjoying a success rate of 70.2% if
they enrolled in non-online courses instead.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• African-American and Hispanic students have a
signifcantly higher risk of failure in online courses,
compared to other ethnic groups. The gap in success
and retention rates is unacceptable.
• Apparently, these students may need individualized
attention. They may not be as technologically savvy
or they may not have adequate and convenient access
to technology resources. Additional research will be
needed to study these two groups further.
Overall Assessment and
Recommendations
• As we improve access for students who are at a
distance from Diablo Valley College or enrolling in
online courses for other reasons, we need to protect
their chances of success as well.
• Counselors and advisers need to inform students of
the performance risks in online instruction, and guide
students who would be most at risk in the direction of
hybrid or conventional classroom instruction.
Conditions for Success in Distance
Education Courses
• The focus group discussion highlighted the
important factors that may contribute to
improving student success and retention in
online courses. The focus group consisted of
faculty members who were teaching online
courses, technology and research staff, and
students enrolled in online courses. The
following recommendations from this group
and the literature review:
Conditions for Success in Distance
Education Courses
Recognize the pedagogical differences among
disciplines and courses.
Invest in instructional development and training
for the faculty. Trained faculty have the greatest
positive impact on student engagement.
Establish a single point of contact for online
courses at the college.
Provide a full range of online services,
including selecting proximate sites for testing.
Conditions for Success in Distance
Education Courses
Use attractive visuals for presentations.
Establish frequent communication with
students.
Provide timely, meaningful, and personalized
feedback.
Assess student learning outcomes in online
courses on a regular and systematic basis.
Conditions for Success in Distance
Education Courses
Create a highly-structured online environment
to keep the learner focused.
Ensure that students are technologically ready
for online courses.
Ensure that students are self-directed and have
solid time management skills.
Future Research
• Additional research will be needed to understand the
underlying causes of the differences in the academic
performance between online and non-online courses.
Some of the areas that require further research and
inquiry include the following:
Study the success and retention rates of online
students using multiple variables.
Use more focus groups, particularly with a mix
of students who successfully completed or did
not complete online courses.
Future Research
Examine the impact of student overall GPA as a
variable.
Study online versus non-online courses within
the constraint of courses which have both
modes.
Study online and non-online courses taught by
the same instructor in the same term.
Study the underlying causes for the gap in
academic performance among certain ethnic
groups.
Thank you!
This is a work in
progress and we
welcome your
comments.